Should the Cowboys have gone for 2 on the 1st or 2nd TD?

[Diehardblues]

I have been on this board since 2004. As a relatively new member I will say welcome, you have offered a lot of really good logical post, and please continue. It is a great board for up to date information and good conversation.

You tried, but I think your pissing in the wind. You have to remember that half the people in the world have below average intelligence. There are a lot of people on this forum smarter than me and probably you. Try to put a value on your time and don't waste it here on the lower half..

Of course. More personal insults. Anyone who doesn’t follow your perspective or agree with your argument must be lower intelligence.

 

[CarolinaFathead]

I have been on this board since 2004. As a relatively new member I will say welcome, you have offered a lot of really good logical post, and please continue. It is a great board for up to date information and good conversation.

You tried, but I think your pissing in the wind. You have to remember that half the people in the world have below average intelligence. There are a lot of people on this forum smarter than me and probably you. Try to put a value on your time and don't waste it here on the lower half..

Thanks for the compliment and you’re probably right. Thanks.

 

[Diehardblues]

The potential for one possession is ALWAYS going to be 50%.

it’s 50% with 5 seconds left in the game or 4:57.

again, all things being equal (meaning the two point conversion fails on Sunday no matter when we attempt it) its better to fail with 4:57 on the clock versus :05 on the clock because you have time for things to break you way and still when the game which is what happened. You can call it luck all you want but MM out the team in the position to take advantage of a lucky break because he went for 2 at 4:57.

this is exactly why MM did what he did.

And I like that 50% better.

 

[CarolinaFathead]

And I like that 50% better.

You’d rather take a 50% chance of failing with little to no time on the clock to recover if you fail over and above taking a 50% chance at failing with five minutes left in the game to recover?

really?

 

[Diehardblues]

You’d rather take a 50% chance of failing with little to no time to recover from failing over and above taking a 50% chance at failing with five minutes left in the game to recover?

really?

I’d rather have an opportunity to tie and extend the game if we only have 1 possession to get it done.

Onside kick recovery is a very small percentage. Not something you can count on.

 

[Rockport]

Just curious, seeing a lot of discussion about this. it’s difficult to see if this is a 50/50 type argument or if one side is just a vocal minority.

Just curious, who won the game?

 

[CarolinaFathead]

I’d rather have an opportunity to tie and extend the game if we only have 1 possession to get it done.

Onside kick recovery is a very small percentage. Not something you can count on.

dude if you fail with little to no time on the clock you lose and don’t even get the opportunity for an onside kick that would even be worth a damn if you recovered it.

this is the reason why MM’s decision was the right one. It gave us a chance to recover an onside kick with 1:45 on the clock since we failed at 4:57.

but I gotta hit the sack.

dude, just try and look at this from another angle

 

[Diehardblues]

dude if you fail with little to no time on the clock you lose and don’t even get the opportunity an onside kick that would even be worth a damn if you recovered it.

this is the reason why MM’s decision was the right one. It gave us a chance to recover an onside kick with 1:45 on the clock.

but I gotta hit the sack.

dude, just try and look at this from another angle

Sorry, but I respect you sticking to your guns. It’s a very debatable subject. Good night

 

[FaSho]

They made the right call. If you fail, you still have time to plan accordingly.

 

[pansophy]

Nope . You didn’t grasp my argument which is I believe our chances are better needing only 1 possession than 2 to extend the game.

Stick to the contents of my argument. Don’t get frustrated and try and make it personal.

If I ask you how you know it’s a 1 possession game and not a 2 possession game if we wait on the 2pt try, at some point you will have to say it’s a 1 possession game IF we make the 2pt conversion.

That’s where the argument falls on it’s face. It’s not necessarily a 1 possession game at all. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. Any argument that is based on “extending the game”, or “making it a 1 possession game” is empirically false. You don’t do that by going for 1. You just delay the outcome of knowing which situation you are in.

I wasn’t making it personal. I was giving you the benefit of perhaps wanting the experience of uncertainty as a fan. The argument literally isn’t valid.

 

[Established1971]

Just curious, seeing a lot of discussion about this. it’s difficult to see if this is a 50/50 type argument or if one side is just a vocal minority.

100% go for 2 on the second

 

[Diehardblues]

If I ask you how you know it’s a 1 possession game and not a 2 possession game if we wait on the 2pt try, at some point you will have to say it’s a 1 possession game IF we make the 2pt conversion.

That’s where the argument falls on it’s face. It’s not necessarily a 1 possession game at all. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. Any argument that is based on “extending the game”, or “making it a 1 possession game” is empirically false. You don’t do that by going for 1. You just delay the outcome of knowing which situation you are in.

I wasn’t making it personal. I was giving you the benefit of perhaps wanting the experience of uncertainty as a fan. The argument literally isn’t valid.

Of course being down 8 is 1 possession game.

If you miss the 2 point conversion early then it becomes a 2 possession game down 9. This is elementary stuff.

We hear announcers , analysts and fans always calling a 8 point deficit a 1 possession game.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Of course being down 8 is 1 possession game.

If you miss the 2 point conversion early then it becomes a 2 possession game down 9. This is elementary stuff.

We hear announcers , analysts and fans always calling a 8 point deficit a 1 possession game.

Yes, and all those people are wrong. Or rather, the phrase, "one possession game" has no meaning if you use it to describe an 8-point game. It's a stupid expression and people should stop using it.

Eight points down might be a one possession game, but there's only about a 50% chance that it is. It's just as likely to be a two-possession game.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I’d rather have an opportunity to tie and extend the game if we only have 1 possession to get it done.

Onside kick recovery is a very small percentage. Not something you can count on.

Down 15, you have to have either a successful two-point conversion OR a successful onside kick. If you go for 2 early and fail, you need an onside kick. If you go for 2 late and fail, guess what? You need an onside kick.

It doesn't make a bit of difference when you try the 2-pointer. Try it early and succeed? Great, no onside kick. Try it late and succeed? Great, no onside kick. Try it early and fail? Bummer, you need an onside kick. Try it late and fail? Bummer, you need an onside kick. There's no difference.

 

[LovinItAll]

Whether one prefers to know the with certainty what must be achieved

It shouldn’t be an argument at all, there’s a mathematical right and wrong answer. Those claiming it’s better to wait until the second TD to attempt the try are objectively incorrect.

Not everything is a matter of opinion.

I'd like to see the data and the algo for this analytic. I understand both sides of the discussion.

The reality is that after we missed the conversion, we're going to lose the game over 95% of the time. With a 6% chance to recover an onside kick, there is also whatever the percentage is that we don't score again even if we do recover it.

It seems to me that it comes down to the subjective/emotional 'I want hope' versus the near certainty that the game is lost after the conversion is missed.

Analytics and fan (or player) emotion are not necessarily in lock step.

 

[Vegas_Cowboy]

Go for two on the second TD. Always keep your team in it by trying to keep it a 1 score game. Never rely on the kicker (twice) to save you in the end.

We needed a series of small miracles after that missed two point conversion and it happened.

 

[streetcredit]

The two point try timing has no effect on success rate, however going for it after the first TD removes a previously unknown variable earlier in the game.

Down 15, you know you need either two or three scores depending on whether the two point try you will attempt at some point is converted. Statistically, your odds of winning go up if resolve that variable earlier as a matter of opportunity. If you fail the two point try, you want to know that information as early as possible.

Why are you posting about a made up statistical theory and posting your arguments as facts?
Timing has no effect on success, I guess sports is a coin flip? Some players perform better under pressure while others do not

 

[droopdog7]

Oh my god not this discussion again. Why is there another thread on this when the last two went like 50 pages combined?

I think what I’ve learned is that some percentage of the populace would forget to breath if it wasn’t an automatic thing. Unfortunately that percentage has no idea who they are. Really frustrating for the sensible people.

 

[Lutonio]

Putting either side of the argument aside, some of you guys need to make sure your post is free of 3rd grade level spelling and grammar mistakes before you stoop so low as to question the intelligence of others. It’s a bad look.

 

[KJJ]

I didn’t agree with all the coaching decisions that were made but I’m not going to question any of them because we ended up winning the game. You only should have done something differently when you end up losing.