Whether one prefers to know the with certainty what must be achieved
It shouldn’t be an argument at all, there’s a mathematical right and wrong answer. Those claiming it’s better to wait until the second TD to attempt the try are objectively incorrect.
Not everything is a matter of opinion.
I'd like to see the data and the algo for this analytic. I understand both sides of the discussion.
The reality is that after we missed the conversion, we're going to lose the game over 95% of the time. With a 6% chance to recover an onside kick, there is also whatever the percentage is that we don't score again even if we do recover it.
It seems to me that it comes down to the subjective/emotional 'I want hope' versus the near certainty that the game is lost after the conversion is missed.
Analytics and fan (or player) emotion are not necessarily in lock step.