It’s basic human psychology to think that you’re better than you really are. In a world where 76% of drivers and 94% of college professors think they are above average, people aren’t good at being honest with themselves as it pertains to risks and unknowns.
It happens every year in the draft. In the first round last year, Justin Jefferson was the 5th WR taken, Justin Herbert was the 3rd QB, and Isaiah Wilson is out of the league.
The sweet spot of the draft is generally in the second and third round. You won’t hit on quite as many picks there as you would in the first, but the draft chart says that #10 is also worth the same as #40, #55, #68 and #78. I know which of those two options has the best chance to help the team in the long run.
The worst thing that can happen is a trade up that yields a bust. Even if you think you are “one piece away”, the chances are you don’t know as much as you think you do, and trading down is the best choice.