How do you measure home field advantage?

[plasticman]

How do you measure "home field advantage"?

The answer, I believe, is in the definition. Home field advantage is the value measured by the increase in the probability of winning when the game being played at "home" versus being played "away".

Mathematically speaking, this can be measured by subtracting the winning percentage of away games from the winning percentage of home games and comparing that difference with the other teams.

Let's say a team wins 75% of their games at home and 60% of their games away. The "gap", if you will, is 15%.

I have calculated these gaps for all 32 teams over the past 10 seasons, 2011 to 2020. Here are the results:

Rank _ Tm _ diff
1 _ BAL _ 24%
2 _ GNB _ 23%
3 _ MIN _ 21%
4 _ CLE _ 21%
5 _ BUF _ 20%
6 _ IND _ 19%
7 _ NYJ _ 19%
8 _ MIA _ 19%
9 _ NWE _ 18%
10 _ PIT _ 17%
11 _ ARI _ 16%
12 _ SEA _ 16%
13 _ JAX _ 15%
14 _ CIN _ 14%
15 _ NOR _ 14%
16 _ DEN _ 13%
17 _ HOU _ 13%
18 _ PHI _ 9%
19 _ LVR _ 9%
20 _ CAR _ 8%
21 _ NYG _ 8%
22 _ TEN _ 8%
23 _ LAR _ 7%
24 _ LAC _ 6%
25 _ SFO _ 6%
26 _ DET _ 6%
27 _ WAS _ 6%
28 _ ATL _ 5%
29 _ DAL _ 5%
30 _ CHI _ 4%
31 _ KAN _ 3%
32 _ TAM _ 3%

The Baltimore Ravens have the best home field advantage over the past ten seasons. They won 73% of their home games and 49% of their away game which provided the largest gap of all NFL teams.

Note the last place team. Over the past ten seasons the Buc's winning percentage at away games and home games have been virtually identical. There is almost no influence on the team's results when you consider whee the game is located.

It's rather ironic that the first NFL team to gain a home field advantage for the Super Bowl was the NFL team less likely to be influenced by this achievement.

This also implies that any team playing in Tampa Bay against the Bucs will have the least likely chance of being effected by it.

 

[RonWashington]

I don’t about all that but from the looks of your list Dallas ranks 29th in “ home field “ advantage which sounds about right , Jerrahs living room offers up about as much passion as a shopping mall .

Now places like KC GB or even Pittsburgh are my definition of places that say your in enemy territory not the stadium off I - 30 in Arlington .

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

How do you measure "home field advantage"?

The answer, I believe, is in the definition. Home field advantage is the value measured by the increase in the probability of winning when the game being played at "home" versus being played "away".

Mathematically speaking, this can be measured by subtracting the winning percentage of away games from the winning percentage of home games and comparing that difference with the other teams.

Let's say a team wins 75% of their games at home and 60% of their games away. The "gap", if you will, is 15%.

I have calculated these gaps for all 32 teams over the past 10 seasons, 2011 to 2020. Here are the results:

Rank _ Tm _ diff
1 _ BAL _ 24%
2 _ GNB _ 23%
3 _ MIN _ 21%
4 _ CLE _ 21%
5 _ BUF _ 20%
6 _ IND _ 19%
7 _ NYJ _ 19%
8 _ MIA _ 19%
9 _ NWE _ 18%
10 _ PIT _ 17%
11 _ ARI _ 16%
12 _ SEA _ 16%
13 _ JAX _ 15%
14 _ CIN _ 14%
15 _ NOR _ 14%
16 _ DEN _ 13%
17 _ HOU _ 13%
18 _ PHI _ 9%
19 _ LVR _ 9%
20 _ CAR _ 8%
21 _ NYG _ 8%
22 _ TEN _ 8%
23 _ LAR _ 7%
24 _ LAC _ 6%
25 _ SFO _ 6%
26 _ DET _ 6%
27 _ WAS _ 6%
28 _ ATL _ 5%
29 _ DAL _ 5%
30 _ CHI _ 4%
31 _ KAN _ 3%
32 _ TAM _ 3%

The Baltimore Ravens have the best home field advantage over the past ten seasons. They won 73% of their home games and 49% of their away game which provided the largest gap of all NFL teams.

Note the last place team. Over the past ten seasons the Buc's winning percentage at away games and home games have been virtually identical. There is almost no influence on the team's results when you consider whee the game is located.

It's rather ironic that the first NFL team to gain a home field advantage for the Super Bowl was the NFL team less likely to be influenced by this achievement.

This also implies that any team playing in Tampa Bay against the Bucs will have the least likely chance of being effected by it.

In Baltimore it is the fan signs that say "Dont mess our spred" and "We know where you live" signs.
In Dallas the fan signs say "Go Cowboys" and "Good luck, 'Boys."

 

[Mannix]

I think our home field advantage should be dead last…it’s a joke…I sure miss Texas Stadium!!!

 

[big dog cowboy]

How do you measure "home field advantage"?

I don't know the answer to your question.

But I do know the Cowboys don't believe in home field advantage.

 

[JoeKing]

How do you measure "home field advantage"?

The answer, I believe, is in the definition. Home field advantage is the value measured by the increase in the probability of winning when the game being played at "home" versus being played "away".

Mathematically speaking, this can be measured by subtracting the winning percentage of away games from the winning percentage of home games and comparing that difference with the other teams.

Let's say a team wins 75% of their games at home and 60% of their games away. The "gap", if you will, is 15%.

I have calculated these gaps for all 32 teams over the past 10 seasons, 2011 to 2020. Here are the results:

Rank _ Tm _ diff
1 _ BAL _ 24%
2 _ GNB _ 23%
3 _ MIN _ 21%
4 _ CLE _ 21%
5 _ BUF _ 20%
6 _ IND _ 19%
7 _ NYJ _ 19%
8 _ MIA _ 19%
9 _ NWE _ 18%
10 _ PIT _ 17%
11 _ ARI _ 16%
12 _ SEA _ 16%
13 _ JAX _ 15%
14 _ CIN _ 14%
15 _ NOR _ 14%
16 _ DEN _ 13%
17 _ HOU _ 13%
18 _ PHI _ 9%
19 _ LVR _ 9%
20 _ CAR _ 8%
21 _ NYG _ 8%
22 _ TEN _ 8%
23 _ LAR _ 7%
24 _ LAC _ 6%
25 _ SFO _ 6%
26 _ DET _ 6%
27 _ WAS _ 6%
28 _ ATL _ 5%
29 _ DAL _ 5%
30 _ CHI _ 4%
31 _ KAN _ 3%
32 _ TAM _ 3%

The Baltimore Ravens have the best home field advantage over the past ten seasons. They won 73% of their home games and 49% of their away game which provided the largest gap of all NFL teams.

Note the last place team. Over the past ten seasons the Buc's winning percentage at away games and home games have been virtually identical. There is almost no influence on the team's results when you consider whee the game is located.

It's rather ironic that the first NFL team to gain a home field advantage for the Super Bowl was the NFL team less likely to be influenced by this achievement.

This also implies that any team playing in Tampa Bay against the Bucs will have the least likely chance of being effected by it.

Measuring "home field advantage" with analytics is a sad sight to see IMO when it should be as easy as just considering the fans in the stands. But the Cowboys fans don't give their team an advantage. They need a jumbotron to tell them when to get loud with the defense on the field and when to get quiet with the offense on the field. AT&T Stadium has been described as the perfect neutral field because opposing team's fans travel well there.

 

[DandyDon52]

How do you measure "home field advantage"?

The answer, I believe, is in the definition. Home field advantage is the value measured by the increase in the probability of winning when the game being played at "home" versus being played "away".

Mathematically speaking, this can be measured by subtracting the winning percentage of away games from the winning percentage of home games and comparing that difference with the other teams.

Let's say a team wins 75% of their games at home and 60% of their games away. The "gap", if you will, is 15%.

I have calculated these gaps for all 32 teams over the past 10 seasons, 2011 to 2020. Here are the results:

Rank _ Tm _ diff
1 _ BAL _ 24%
2 _ GNB _ 23%
3 _ MIN _ 21%
4 _ CLE _ 21%
5 _ BUF _ 20%
6 _ IND _ 19%
7 _ NYJ _ 19%
8 _ MIA _ 19%
9 _ NWE _ 18%
10 _ PIT _ 17%
11 _ ARI _ 16%
12 _ SEA _ 16%
13 _ JAX _ 15%
14 _ CIN _ 14%
15 _ NOR _ 14%
16 _ DEN _ 13%
17 _ HOU _ 13%
18 _ PHI _ 9%
19 _ LVR _ 9%
20 _ CAR _ 8%
21 _ NYG _ 8%
22 _ TEN _ 8%
23 _ LAR _ 7%
24 _ LAC _ 6%
25 _ SFO _ 6%
26 _ DET _ 6%
27 _ WAS _ 6%
28 _ ATL _ 5%
29 _ DAL _ 5%
30 _ CHI _ 4%
31 _ KAN _ 3%
32 _ TAM _ 3%

The Baltimore Ravens have the best home field advantage over the past ten seasons. They won 73% of their home games and 49% of their away game which provided the largest gap of all NFL teams.

Note the last place team. Over the past ten seasons the Buc's winning percentage at away games and home games have been virtually identical. There is almost no influence on the team's results when you consider whee the game is located.

It's rather ironic that the first NFL team to gain a home field advantage for the Super Bowl was the NFL team less likely to be influenced by this achievement.

This also implies that any team playing in Tampa Bay against the Bucs will have the least likely chance of being effected by it.

kudos for the work put in , but there are some flaws.
The tampa team that lost home games for the last 10 years was not the same team that won a SB.
if this SB team had been playing the last 10 years , they would be in top 5.

10 years is too long of a period, teams change, I would say 5 years max, and really last 3 years would be better
to show which teams currently do well at home.

Bucs were 5-3 at home last season [6-3 counting SB], and 2 losses were to rams and KC, both by 3 points.

 

[Buzzbait]

I don't know the answer to your question.

But I do know the Cowboys don't believe in home field advantage.

I don't think the Cowboys even know what home field advantage means.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

How do you measure "home field advantage"?

The answer, I believe, is in the definition. Home field advantage is the value measured by the increase in the probability of winning when the game being played at "home" versus being played "away".

Mathematically speaking, this can be measured by subtracting the winning percentage of away games from the winning percentage of home games and comparing that difference with the other teams.

Let's say a team wins 75% of their games at home and 60% of their games away. The "gap", if you will, is 15%.

I have calculated these gaps for all 32 teams over the past 10 seasons, 2011 to 2020. Here are the results:

Rank _ Tm _ diff
1 _ BAL _ 24%
2 _ GNB _ 23%
3 _ MIN _ 21%
4 _ CLE _ 21%
5 _ BUF _ 20%
6 _ IND _ 19%
7 _ NYJ _ 19%
8 _ MIA _ 19%
9 _ NWE _ 18%
10 _ PIT _ 17%
11 _ ARI _ 16%
12 _ SEA _ 16%
13 _ JAX _ 15%
14 _ CIN _ 14%
15 _ NOR _ 14%
16 _ DEN _ 13%
17 _ HOU _ 13%
18 _ PHI _ 9%
19 _ LVR _ 9%
20 _ CAR _ 8%
21 _ NYG _ 8%
22 _ TEN _ 8%
23 _ LAR _ 7%
24 _ LAC _ 6%
25 _ SFO _ 6%
26 _ DET _ 6%
27 _ WAS _ 6%
28 _ ATL _ 5%
29 _ DAL _ 5%
30 _ CHI _ 4%
31 _ KAN _ 3%
32 _ TAM _ 3%

The Baltimore Ravens have the best home field advantage over the past ten seasons. They won 73% of their home games and 49% of their away game which provided the largest gap of all NFL teams.

Note the last place team. Over the past ten seasons the Buc's winning percentage at away games and home games have been virtually identical. There is almost no influence on the team's results when you consider whee the game is located.

It's rather ironic that the first NFL team to gain a home field advantage for the Super Bowl was the NFL team less likely to be influenced by this achievement.

This also implies that any team playing in Tampa Bay against the Bucs will have the least likely chance of being effected by it.

What home-field advantage as we play in a shopping mall......

 

[NeathBlue]

The home field advantage should have little to do with the fans, it should be about how much the players want to win in their own house.
Away teams obviously would want to show how good they are by going into the opposition’s stadium and putting down a marker, but the home team should be busting a gut not to let someone come into their stadium and beat them…

 

[plasticman]

I don't know the answer to your question.

But I do know the Cowboys don't believe in home field advantage.

For good reason. They don't have any. AT&T was built more for visiting fans than the Cowboys.

 

[plasticman]

Measuring "home field advantage" with analytics is a sad sight to see IMO when it should be as easy as just considering the fans in the stands. But the Cowboys fans don't give their team an advantage. They need a jumbotron to tell them when to get loud with the defense on the field and when to get quiet with the offense on the field. AT&T Stadium has been described as the perfect neutral field because opposing team's fans travel well there.

True. It has become a tourist attraction.

 

[plasticman]

kudos for the work put in , but there are some flaws.
The tampa team that lost home games for the last 10 years was not the same team that won a SB.
if this SB team had been playing the last 10 years , they would be in top 5.

10 years is too long of a period, teams change, I would say 5 years max, and really last 3 years would be better
to show which teams currently do well at home.

Bucs were 5-3 at home last season [6-3 counting SB], and 2 losses were to rams and KC, both by 3 points.

Different team, same fans. The Super Bowl Champions went 5-3 in their own stadium.

 

[plasticman]

Measuring "home field advantage" with analytics is a sad sight to see IMO when it should be as easy as just considering the fans in the stands. But the Cowboys fans don't give their team an advantage. They need a jumbotron to tell them when to get loud with the defense on the field and when to get quiet with the offense on the field. AT&T Stadium has been described as the perfect neutral field because opposing team's fans travel well there.

Going by perception has never worked well for anything in history. You need math and statistics to get the real unbiased story. People don't like that because they can't manipulate people with half truths, deception and propaganda. They can misrepresent the truth with math if people don't pay attention to exact details.

 

[TequilaCowboy]

The team that pops out the most is Kansas City....worst than Dallas? Announcers always seemed to say how hard it is for teams to come to Arrowhead, guess its not true. And then you have the Browns and the Jets doing better than expected at home.

 

[NeathBlue]

The team that pops out the most is Kansas City....worst than Dallas? Announcers always seemed to say how hard it is for teams to come to Arrowhead, guess its not true. And then you have the Browns and the Jets doing better than expected at home.

No, it just means they’re as dominant on the road as they are at home.

 

[Risen Star]

Flawed. Good teams capable of winning on the road make it appear that they lack much of a homefield advantage.

I mean if a 15-1 team went 8-0 at home and 7-1 on the road they didn't have much a homefield advantage that year and that's probably not true.

 

[shabazz]

Doesn’t Vegas still measure it in the form of 3 points?

 

[scottsp]

Road performance, IMO, should have no bearing in the analysis. In no scenario would it be: T1 who’s 7-2 at home 8-0 road v T2 2-6 and 0-9, and team 2 is considered to have the better HFA.

Here, I’m seeing the Browns near the top then the 31st ranked Chiefs and my head explodes. Arrowhead’s impact doesn’t register in this methodology.

I’m thinking each team's HFW% should be weighed against the league aggregate to assess advantage. That’s more apples to apples to me.

 

[Hoofbite]

I’d measure by toilet flushes per capita. If you have more flushes, fans are looking for something better to do.