What Tony Pollard’s Numbers Make Clear

[TwoCentPlain]

BPA is a stupid draft strategy.

Yeah, much better to reach for need.

 

[TwoCentPlain]

Go take a long look at the traits in a RB most conducive to winning playoff games.

I’d rather just wait for you to humor me with whatever list of traits you come up with.

 

[quickccc]

How many of you came on and said it all those times he had 8-9 carries for 12-15 yards? Asking for a friend.. The bottom line is that since coming into the league Pollard has been held under 4 ypc in over 45% of his games.. Zeke's number is around 20% as I recall. Even more telling is the number of games below THREE yard per carry.. Zeke is around 10% and Pollard is over 30%. Yes Pollard is more likely to deliver a big play percentagewise.. but it's stupid to ignore that he's also far more likely to deliver absolutely nothing .. The question of course is the trade off. Is consistent churning out yards but fewer splash plays more valuable to an offense than consistently being stuffed but a occasional splash play? Now Pollard has NOT been stuff ed much so far this year.. So maybe he's gotten stronger or maybe he's not being asked to run between the tackles at all .. we will see as the year plays out. IF he shows over time that he can do what Zeke does between the tackles, moving the chains and doing the dirty work, while still delivering more splash plays then this "debate" will have some merit.

It's been several times Pollard has displayed nice hard churning runs between the tackles, and in traffic.
He's actually shown surprising lower body tackle breaking power for one that looks so slender for a RB.

- He's just not on Zeke's level as far as pure power and ability to drive-push the pile, even when lone defenders
have already made first initial contact.
And Pollard is doing on a rotation basis, so he's not taking on excessive pounding and toll.

- Most times you can tell the difference between load carrying featured backs ..vs change of pace backs.
The loaders don't wear down as game goes on, the change of pacers have spots and spurts of electricity but
the more of a load they have to take on, the more they tend to wear down as the game goes on.

- And it's not like Kellen is utilizing Pollard as a pure tail back, as he's being flexed and moved around
on an unconventional sense and because of his ability to speed around the edges and upfield in a blink
even per jet reverse sweeps.

 

[xwalker]

How many of you came on and said it all those times he had 8-9 carries for 12-15 yards? Asking for a friend.. The bottom line is that since coming into the league Pollard has been held under 4 ypc in over 45% of his games.. Zeke's number is around 20% as I recall. Even more telling is the number of games below THREE yard per carry.. Zeke is around 10% and Pollard is over 30%. Yes Pollard is more likely to deliver a big play percentagewise.. but it's stupid to ignore that he's also far more likely to deliver absolutely nothing .. The question of course is the trade off. Is consistent churning out yards but fewer splash plays more valuable to an offense than consistently being stuffed but a occasional splash play? Now Pollard has NOT been stuff ed much so far this year.. So maybe he's gotten stronger or maybe he's not being asked to run between the tackles at all .. we will see as the year plays out. IF he shows over time that he can do what Zeke does between the tackles, moving the chains and doing the dirty work, while still delivering more splash plays then this "debate" will have some merit.

Yard per Carry
…......... .... Pollard …...... Zeke
2019 …......... 5.3 …......... 4.5
2020 …......... 4.3 …......... 4
2021 …......... 7.7 …......... 3.9

Pollard's best attribute is that as an outside threat run or pass.
- That type of outside threat puts stress on the coverage scheme.
- i.e. Pollard opens things up for WRs/TEs.
- We've seen it repeatedly over the years with the Cowboys defense against outside threat RBs.
- We've seen Cowboys CBs in zone in a quandary of coming up to defend against a pass to the RB or staying back as the under coverage on the WR.
- In man coverage, a LB generally has to get to the outside to cover the outside run or pass and that has been one of the Cowboys biggest issues on defense the past decade.

 

[TwoCentPlain]

Note to all the ‘Low Key Fade’ lovers out there. This is not 2016-2018. The arguably greatest OL ever is no longer here.

 

[RonnieT24]

Yep, not getting that 2016-2018 OL back. Probably never. Elliott without arguably the greatest OL ever is pretty average. When the OL went from great to average, Elliott also went from great to average.

Henry continues to be great even with average OLs.

One that line was nowhere near the greatest ever.. They lost one guy and gave up 8 sacks in a game. Up until 2020 when EVERYBODY got hurt and the line dropped from average to absolute garbage level Zeke was routinely churning out 1350+ yard seasons. PSST.. that aint average.. Eight of those gets you 10,000 yards and into the Hall of Fame. And if you think the Titans line is average you clearly have not been watching.. Henry is averaging 2.6 yards before contact over the last two seasons.. Zeke is averaging about 2.0 yards per carry over the same period. More yards BEFORE contact usually means more yards after contact because you have more momentum by the time you get hit.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

When there is great blocking, with large holes to run through, Pollard can do well. But that isn't happening a lot, if there's not a hole Zeke can grind out a few yards, Pollard gets stuffed. We've seen that. And if there is a big hole, Zeke can do well also. The Chargers game Zeke ran straight up the middle for 16-17 yards on one play, the announcer even said "Zeke shows a burst".

Pollard has never been the "bell cow" back, why is that? Only 139 carries in 3 years at Memphis. Maybe because he doesn't have the build to do that?

Yes he has value, yes he's very quick, a bit quicker than Zeke. Good receiver. But is smaller, doesn't block as well, doesn't get the tough inside yards as well as Zeke.

He's not the "better back", not enough carries to tell, if nothing else. Being a starter, when defenses know you'll be getting the ball most of the time is very different than spot duty.

In any event, replacing Zeke with Pollard is not the way to go, the best course of action is to use both of them, it keeps both fresh, reduces the chances of injury and keeps the defense guessing....

 

[TwoCentPlain]

One that line was nowhere near the greatest ever.. They lost one guy and gave up 8 sacks in a game. Up until 2020 when EVERYBODY got hurt and the line dropped from average to absolute garbage level Zeke was routinely churning out 1350+ yard seasons. PSST.. that aint average.. Eight of those gets you 10,000 yards and into the Hall of Fame. And if you think the Titans line is average you clearly have not been watching.. Henry is averaging 2.6 yards before contact over the last two seasons.. Zeke is averaging about 2.0 yards per carry over the same period. More yards BEFORE contact usually means more yards after contact because you have more momentum by the time you get hit.

Who do the Titans have on their OL? I’ll wait for you to do an internet search.

 

[quickccc]

I think Pollard is a good back and I’m glad he is on our team. I am not comparing him to Zeke as this thread is expressly not about that.

Having said the foregoing, numbers can be a bit misleading. You have to consider the situation that various backs get their “touches” and also how much attention or game planning that a back receives and how it affects the players around him.

Pollard appears to have more burst than Zeke does currently. What we don’t know for sure is how much scheming Pollard has against him vs what Zeke is receiving. As tape gets out on Pollard and he is used more, teams may game plan him a little bit more.

Pollard may be the real deal, or it may be that he has received inadequate attention from defenses. The jury is still out on that one but I’m all for taking advantage of the situation.

I am a firm believer that Pollard’s strength is his speed “in space”. We need to keep him in that usage situation as much as possible.

When Pollard was drafted by Cowboys, Garrett was asked to elaborate on Pollard's set, as it was perceived he'd be used as a "gimmick' space back, as Memphis flexed and moved him around as slot, situational, option pitch, etc. ..

But Garrett reiterated how Pollard can be a traditional ball touting back as well, and they really liked his skill set there as well.

Has all the looks that Pollard indeed can be Both;; Gimmick back as well as traditional ball carrier.

 

[quickccc]

When there is great blocking, with large holes to run through, Pollard can do well. But that isn't happening a lot, if there's not a hole Zeke can grind out a few yards, Pollard gets stuffed. We've seen that. And if there is a big hole, Zeke can do well also. The Chargers game Zeke ran straight up the middle for 16-17 yards on one play, the announcer even said "Zeke shows a burst".

Pollard has never been the "bell cow" back, why is that? Only 139 carries in 3 years at Memphis. Maybe because he doesn't have the build to do that?

Yes he has value, yes he's very quick, a bit quicker than Zeke. Good receiver. But is smaller, doesn't block as well, doesn't get the tough inside yards as well as Zeke.

He's not the "better back", not enough carries to tell, if nothing else. Being a starter, when defenses know you'll be getting the ball most of the time is very different than spot duty.

In any event, replacing Zeke with Pollard is not the way to go, the best course of action is to use both of them, it keeps both fresh, reduces the chances of injury and keeps the defense guessing....

I'll still take Pollard over what I've seen from his Memphis teammate and co-runner Darrell Henderson (Rams)

 

[RonnieT24]

When Pollard was drafted by Cowboys, Garrett was asked to elaborate on Pollard's set, as it was perceived he'd be used as a "gimmick' space back, as Memphis flexed and moved him around as slot, situational, option pitch, etc. ..

But Garrett reiterated how Pollard can be a traditional ball touting back as well, and they really liked his skill set there as well.

Has all the looks that Pollard indeed can be Both;; Gimmick back as well as traditional ball carrier.

He didn't really show that the first two years but he has shown improvement in that area this year. Of course the sample size is small but he has shown me that he can break tackles in the backfield and fight forward for positive yards.. though as I say they have not asked him to do it that much. He provided nothing in the Tampa game.. well except for that penalty while getting run over in pass pro. He did well in L.A. .. we need him to keep doing that. If he does he gets more attention from defenses which will in turn make life easier on the other guys.. Zeke included.

 

[Typhus]

No one game plans against Elliott anymore. Those days are over.

Zeke could have had the similar production,, the fact that they had to game plan vs Zeke allowed Pollard to exploit.
That takes nothing away from Pollard, just saying that having both Zeke and Tony is such a luxury,, both RBs will have their day,, we can go with the hot hand now.
Teams have to game plan legitimately vs the ground game now, they will benefit from each other.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Yep, not getting that 2016-2018 OL back. Probably never. Elliott without arguably the greatest OL ever is pretty average. When the OL went from great to average, Elliott also went from great to average.

Henry continues to be great even with average OLs.

But if course it has nothing to do with a more competent system...

Jerry sucks, Garrett sucks, Moore sucks. Mm sucks....online sucks....but of course it's Zeke's fault he can't run.

 

[TwoCentPlain]

But if course it has nothing to do with a more competent system...

Jerry sucks, Garrett sucks, Moore sucks. Mm sucks....online sucks....but of course it's Zeke's fault he can't run.

You make no sense.

 

[quickccc]

He didn't really show that the first two years but he has shown improvement in that area this year. Of course the sample size is small but he has shown me that he can break tackles in the backfield and fight forward for positive yards.. though as I say they have not asked him to do it that much. He provided nothing in the Tampa game.. well except for that penalty while getting run over in pass pro. He did well in L.A. .. we need him to keep doing that. If he does he gets more attention from defenses which will in turn make life easier on the other guys.. Zeke included.

If you’re referring to Pollard’s inside between tackles running, he was already displaying that within his last two years.. he just wasn’t just making his mark off ‘just’ interior running
This 109 yards rushing vs Chargers wasn’t the first time Tony has had over 100+ yard rushing.

But what we are seeing more from Pollard now ( albeit just 2 games in ’21) per Kellen’s design is his use of Pollard as both a gimmick role as well as continued traditional RB role, in a relief role.

So long as Pollard is getting touches that make him productive and provide big plays I have no problem with those roles.

“ Provided nothing vs Bucs” ? He had a 4.67 rushing avg. albeit it to jet sweep reverses , or pass game with bubble screens although Kellen opt to limited his touches in 2nd half, and Kellen opt more to just drop back pass to beat the Bucs.

What seems to be clearly making the suddenly Zeke vs Pollard debate is speed, splash, burst, 20+ plays ..and those were elements that zeke was being criticized for being absence for some time now, and

There’s no questioned that it spun Zeke’s commitment on offseason to slender down and try to recapture that lost burst and splash plays.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Zeke could have had the similar production,, the fact that they had to game plan vs Zeke allowed Pollard to exploit.
That takes nothing away from Pollard, just saying that having both Zeke and Tony is such a luxury,, both RBs will have their day,, we can go with the hot hand now.
Teams have to game plan legitimately vs the ground game now, they will benefit from each other.

Agreed. But nobody game plans for Zeke. Pollards production has nothing to do with Zeke.

 

[adbutcher]

No down and distance? Front? Left or right hash? Yard mark? All runs are not created equal. Calling for Pollard to start is ridiculous.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

You make no sense.

I was sort of making fun. But most people feel we are...dysfunctional...starting at the top. Why wouldn't that effect our players in certain situations?

No...there's some sense in that....sorry but true.

You'll see some good zeke games this year. Sorry about that too.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

No down and distance? Front? Left or right hash? Yard mark? All runs are not created equal. Calling for Pollard to start is ridiculous.

Those things are a bit too...subtle and complicated for some of the experts.

 

[TwoCentPlain]

I was sort of making fun. But most people feel we are...dysfunctional...starting at the top. Why wouldn't that effect our players in certain situations?

No...there's some sense in that....sorry but true.

You'll see some good zeke games this year. Sorry about that too.

I don’t feel we are dysfunctional at the top. Anyway, Players are responsible for what happens on the field regardless of whatever noise there may be.

I am a fan of the Dallas Cowboys not the Dallas Elliotts or Dallas Prescotts.

I sure hope the $15M RB will have some good games. Why else would they be paying him so much?