There are some smart fans on this site who can maybe explain this better. I've seen the articles and the websites that show you the percentage. The analytics guys seem to say it's almost always a good call to be aggressive and go for it on 4th early in the game?
When McCarthy decided to go for it on 4th in the Pats game at 0-0, I thought we may have lost the game with that decision. Having watched the Parcells Tree in Dallas, I know how those teams play against high-powered offenses. They're looking for mistakes like that so they can grind it out. It was a good win though, and everyone forgot about it, especially when the analytics guys said it was a good call.
But what about momentum? And just psychological 'getting points on the board.' Having watched the Boys since the early 80's, it always feels like there is this sense of relief in the stadium, on the TV, etc when you score first blood. FG or TD, and sometimes just going through your first series, doesn't matter. AND it seems to settle the players down. Playing in front of 100k people every game - no matter how many years of experience - I would guess much of our roster comes in with some butterflies and needs to settle down. From my own personal sports experience, I know once you get the sweat and the intensity going, you're in the zone, but that START of the game is always weird.
I'm all for being aggressive later in the game with a high-powered offense that has momentum (which oddly enough seem to be the decisions the analytics guys seem to frown on the most) but at 0-0? I would always go conservative.