Twitter: Zeke's declining yard average per year

[KJJ]

In fairness to Elliott, the six-year, $90 million contract he signed in 2019 was always going to be difficult for him to vindicate. However, as his production has declined during the 2021 season, it is a deal that is looking more and more egregious.Pollard doesn't have that problem. In fact, his numbers surpassed Elliott's last season in a fashionable way. And I wouldn't be surprised Pollard continues on doing so in 2022.

Most of Pollard’s good games are due to one big run. That jacks up his average. If you take that one run away he’s averaging under 4 yards a carry in a lot of games. He has a number of negative carries. He’s not an every down back.

 

[quickccc]

In his 3 yrs at Ohio State, Zeke had a whopping combined 650 touches; but 627 of those touches were his last two yrs. When you combine his college and NFL combined touches, he has 2,588 total touches.

That means for 9 straight football seasons, he has averaged nearly 300 touches per season between playing in the Big 10 and the NFL. That’s a lot of wear and tear on a young man’s body. I think he COULD be an effective situational back at this point. But we all know Jerry won’t allow that.

i myself would not do or allow that either ... one of the highest paid backs in the NFL, and he's a 'situational ' back ? Which means only a handful of touches.
And that's just "touching' the football ,.. imagine the pounding and toll it takes absorbing the collision of these blitzing LBs over the years.

Even coaches in Saints- land seemed especially careful with Alvin Kamara, sharing him up with workload back like Mark Ingram- even with Kamara clearly the better playmaking
back. - it depends upon your coaches, imo.

 

[Typhus]

Baffles me why we don't see more of this from KM......

Seems obvious, yet never attempted.

 

[Bobhaze]

i myself would not do or allow that either ... one of the highest paid backs in the NFL, and he's a 'situational ' back ? Which means only a handful of touches.
And that's just "touching' the football ,.. imagine the pounding and toll it takes absorbing the collision of these blitzing LBs over the years.

Even coaches in Saints- land seemed especially careful with Alvin Kamara, sharing him up with workload back like Mark Ingram- even with Kamara clearly the better playmaking
back. - it depends upon your coaches, imo.

IMO, Playing time should be based solely on whatever is going to give us the best chance to win. Not contracts. They made a mistake on his contract and the whole world knows it.

This FO can’t admit their mistakes so they keep repeating them in a foolish cycle of hubris that has given us the last 26 years. If they don’t know why they should play their best players we are already screwed.

 

[BigD_95]

I'm not saying Zeke is worth his contract, we all know he's overpaid but the declining production is not ALL his fault...........OL and Kellen Moore raise your hand.


For reference, notice Derrick Henry's rushing attempts the last three years.....303, 378, 219 ( only 8 games). Last year he was on pace for 400+ carries






Keep in mind his targets/carries also declined

2016...15 games 322 carries
2017...10 games 242 carries
2018...15 games 304 carries
2019...16 games 301 carries
2020...15 games 244 carries ( MM 1st year as HC )
2021...17 games 232 carries


https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HenrDe00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/ElliEz00.htm

why they should have never caved and resigned him to a massive contract cause now we are stuck with him

 

[CoachD]

The guy had lost his burst (ya I knee his knee bothered him last year) but he was going down before that and he no longer had those long runs that we saw in his rookie year.

 

[tunahelper]

There are a ton of miles on his tires going all the way back to Ohio State. Zeke has had a ton of punishment on his body and even though he’s only 26, with his workload he’s more like 30. He may actually be more effective as part of a RBBC than being the workhorse. But I don’t think JJ will allow. His highest paid players MUST play full time. It’s part of his marketing plan.

Agree 100% on RBBC. We cannot overuse him like last year with Pollard.

 

[glimmerman]

Two-man backfield at times - Elliott and Pollard lined up as halfbacks.

Yep. Cause some confusion. Maybe motion or misdirection. We gotta get the O-Line settled.

 

[quickccc]

IMO, Playing time should be based solely on whatever is going to give us the best chance to win. Not contracts. They made a mistake on his contract and the whole world knows it.

This FO can’t admit their mistakes so they keep repeating them in a foolish cycle of hubris that has given us the last 26 years. If they don’t know why they should play their best players we are already screwed.

But you gave that player that contract based off performance and ability to give you the best chance to win.
Because he was a difference maker. Because he sets the tone - whether offense or defense.

Why did the Martin, Tyron, Zeke, Dak, DLaw, even Amari Cooper get the mega contracts ?

- Zeke led the NFL in rushing twice, so at that actual contract renewal time, he had already established his market value because he set the tone for RBs in the NFL.
What wasn't forecasted was his decline right after he re-signed that contract.

- The only two players i thought Cowboys flat jumped into the deer in headlight without them out-performing their rookie contracts were Tyron Crawford
a person they still refused to cut his last two mediocre years here ...
and Jaylon Smith - who they decide to deem and project as a cornerstone LB for years to come.

 

[Whyjerry]

There are a ton of miles on his tires going all the way back to Ohio State. Zeke has had a ton of punishment on his body and even though he’s only 26, with his workload he’s more like 30. He may actually be more effective as part of a RBBC than being the workhorse. But I don’t think JJ will allow. His highest paid players MUST play full time. It’s part of his marketing plan.

I like them revising Marion Barber’s role for him.

 

[Motorola]

Yep. Cause some confusion. Maybe motion or misdirection. We gotta get the O-Line settled.

Second that motion.

 

[Nexx]

Most of Pollard’s good games are due to one big run. That jacks up his average. If you take that one run away he’s averaging under 4 yards a carry in a lot of games. He has a number of negative carries. He’s not an every down back.

Thats the case with pretty much every running back with a big average.... .....

 

[KJJ]

Thats the case with pretty much every running back with a big average.... .....

The more carries they get the average goes down. Felix Jones had some high averages due few carries and big runs. The same with Joseph Randall. Once they became featured their averages came way down. Zeke rarely breaks off a long run. He pushes the pile between the tackles.

 

[Big D]

We can say goodbye to Zeke getting 300+ carries as long as Kellen Moore is calling the plays. That's not the style he wants to play so Zeke is relegated to pass blocking 40-45 times a game and running it maybe 15. .....

This is what I don't get. If he's a football genius surely he understands time of possession and how it's used to control games. I'm not a genius but I do know that all of our best teams have been when the run game is on point.

 

[Coogiguy03]

The guy had lost his burst (ya I knee his knee bothered him last year) but he was going down before that and he no longer had those long runs that we saw in his rookie year.

THANK YOU!!!!!!!! People think it's just this season because of injury, hell no, writing was on the wall

 

[RonnieT24]

The more carries they get the average goes down. Felix Jones had some high averages due few carries and big runs. The same with Joseph Randall. Once they became featured their averages came way down. Zeke rarely breaks off a long run. He pushes the pile between the tackles.

Very few feature backs break long runs early in games. This is the case for a few reasons. One is teams come into games geared up to stop them trying to make your offense one-dimensional. Secondly, if you're a feature back who has had any success in the league, teams spend their entire week devising ways to slow you down. They dissect every tendency, every aspect of your game so as to be ready for you. Meanwhile the secondary back is maybe a 5 minute conversation on Friday. What that results in is a lot of feature backs entering the 4th quarter with 15-16 carries for a pedestrian average. But if the game has gone in such a way that you can keep handing him the ball he can feast on the defense that he has just spent the first three quarters wearing down. We saw that play out dozens of times over the course of Emmitt's career and we saw it many times early on with Zeke and many other feature backs. Then after the defense has been beat on for 3+ quarters eventually a big one breaks. I am always reminded of that game the Titans had against Seattle.. when Henry had something like 26 yards on 27 carries at one point.. Then on the next carry he went 60+ to the house. And then housed another one when the game went to OT. I have little doubt that if Zeke was out there regularly getting 25-30 carries he'd be doing similar thangs. The "problem" now is that Pollard has shown himself to be a capable back so if the game is sewed up he's the one getting those late game carries while Zeke chills on the sidelines. He literally gets to reap the rewards of the pounding Zeke puts on a defense. Which I don't think Zeke minds one bit but clearly a lot of fans lose their minds over. If Zeke was out there getting those carries he might have gaudier totals and a gaudier YPC average but he'd also be shortening his own career. Then again Kellen Moore is doing a fine job of shortening his career by asking him to pass block 40-50 times a game.. but I digress.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I'm not saying Zeke is worth his contract, we all know he's overpaid but the declining production is not ALL his fault...........OL and Kellen Moore raise your hand.


For reference, notice Derrick Henry's rushing attempts the last three years.....303, 378, 219 ( only 8 games). Last year he was on pace for 400+ carries






Keep in mind his targets/carries also declined

2016...15 games 322 carries
2017...10 games 242 carries
2018...15 games 304 carries
2019...16 games 301 carries
2020...15 games 244 carries ( MM 1st year as HC )
2021...17 games 232 carries


https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HenrDe00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/ElliEz00.htm

Yep, no question about it. The decline of Zeke is pretty much an experiment in what happens to an offense as your Oline declines from the #1 unit in the NFL to bad.

But this was the argument from all the anti Zeke guys and anti RB guys his entire career. Zeke and RB's come and go with OLine. Very few arent worth big money.

 

[CowboyRoy]

The 2021 season was the fourth 1,000-yard campaign for Elliott in six seasons. However, after two 100-yard performances and averaging 90.4 yards per game with five rushing touchdowns in the first five weeks, Elliott registered just 45.8 yards a contest in the last 12 games, and the reason why was because he played with a partially torn PCL for most of the season which was revealed after the Cowboys playoff loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the wild-card round.

He played injured, I will give him a certain amount of the benefit of the doubt. He will play this year and we will see

So you cant see it for yourself? Are you confused?

 

[Cmac]

Can we at least hold the OL and OC accountable for this too? Just wondering.

 

[doomsday9084]

Basically everyone sees it. Anyone arguing that Zeke is fine isn't worth talking to.

What is really painful is that Pollard was fine. Suddenly the run blocking got much better when he set foot on the field. Countless people have posted the stats. The fact that the Cowboys continued to give Zeke the lion's share of the carries was one of the most shocking things I have seen in my time as a Cowboys fan, going back to the late 70's. Why? Because it was a clear sign the Cowboys #1 priority was not winning. The team was trying to manage personalities or save face with the contract, regardless of the impact on results.