Russia invades Ukraine *** READ RULES IN POST 6 BEFORE POSTING ***

Reality

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From the article ..

He says the Russians should not be surprised that his country now wants to join NATO after Russia invaded Ukraine. He says he personally warned them in January this would happen if Russian troops crossed into Ukraine.

Last November, 20 percent of all Finns wanted to join NATO, now nearly 80 percent want to join, according to recent polls, a dramatic shift in public sentiment after decades of neutrality after World War II.
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Tuomas

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Montanalo said:
Appreciate the offer to answer a few questions.

What is the thinking behind Finland not joining (or wanting to join) NATO prior to now?

What happens when Russia cuts gas and oil exports to Finland?

Do your comments reflect a majority of the Finnish?

BTW, my wife and I visited Helsinki and Lapland about 3 years ago... had a great.time.
Click to expand...

My pleasure!

- This is interesting question. In the general debate Nato discussion in Finland has been stuck for decades. Usually politicians and citizens have been thinking that we can join if something happens and there is no need to join earlier. Also there has been A LOT disinformation going on what happens if Finland joins. How much it cost, should we send our sons and daughters to the war other side of world against their will etc. I'm pretty sure that big part this disinformation is coming from Kreml. In February when Russia started this we finally started speak what Nato really is and a lot of people got facts not lies.
Also big change was when end of last year Russia said that Finland can't join Nato. So actually they said that independent country cannot make own decisions.

- When gas and oil exports ends it is not a very big thing but it definitely raise some prices. Overall for example in the general household using gas is very rarely these days. Finland and Estonia have long planned to rent LNG (liquefied natural gas) ship so we can together get gas and storage it completely without Russia.

- I would say yes. Biggest part Finnish peoples thinks now that Russia is a threat, but that doesn't mean that we afraid them. I think that way also and with Nato threat is getting smaller. It has been always very clear why we have an army. Old Finnish jokes says that "Finland's enemy comes from the east and if it comes other directions it has flanked". Everybody now just want to maximize security.

Cool! Glad you liked and welcome again!

If someone is interested this Battlefield 2020 short movie from Finnish Defense Forces is excellent and high quality! It shows one scenario how war can start in Finland. Every person this movie is real soldiers, real newsreaders etc. no actors.
Also English subtitles are available.
Taistelukenttä 2020 | Slagfält 2020 | Battlefield 2020 - YouTube


And by the way. Finland is not part of Scandinavia so no Vikings or mountains here!
 
jnday

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MichaelWinicki said:
Worth a look/listen too...

A fascinating exchange on a Moscow talk show:

Click to expand...

I read that the Russians have lost a third of the troops from their initial invading force. I don’t think Putin or the Russian military was prepared for losses like this. Their 1980s military equipment can not stand up to modern smart weapons. The results from their military operations have been similar to the results that Iraq had during the Gulf War. I have read a few articles that was based on interviews with retired Russian generals that are saying Putin’s days are numbered. It is looking like Putin's administration will be overthrown if the losses keeps piling up with little to no progress in the Ukraine. My concern about Putin is the reaction he will have from an overthrow attempt.
 
Hoofbite

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Reality said:
From the article ..

He says the Russians should not be surprised that his country now wants to join NATO after Russia invaded Ukraine. He says he personally warned them in January this would happen if Russian troops crossed into Ukraine.

Last November, 20 percent of all Finns wanted to join NATO, now nearly 80 percent want to join, according to recent polls, a dramatic shift in public sentiment after decades of neutrality after World War II.
​
Click to expand...

That's a pretty big swing. Don't need NATO until you do, I guess.
 
Hoofbite

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This whole situation is crazy. Russia is publicly castrating themselves with every passing day. Ukraine is showing the world how resilient their people are. Saw rumors Putin has some form of cancer, which would kind of explain his dire need to try and cement his legacy ASAP (whatever it was to start with, it damn sure isn't what he wants it to be now) and now non-NATO countries are quickly looking for admittance.

Russia has literally destroyed itself in 60 days. They're cut off from foreign markets, businesses are abandoning them (McD's is out), and the rest of the world thinks they're a complete joke. I think it's going to be decades before they're looked at as anything other than a waste of everyone's time. The only thing they have is nuclear deterrent and nobody else is going to fire first. I'm sure every country is content with letting Russia rot from the inside-outward.
 
RJ_MacReady

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So the siege on Azovstal Plant is finally over. The defenders have surrendered.

Unofficial numbers:
2500 POWs including 404 wounded (55 severely). 804 pows from the Azov regiment others from marines, cops, sbu ,uaf etc and 200 corpses in refrigerator.


 
MichaelWinicki

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jnday said:
I read that the Russians have lost a third of the troops from their initial invading force. I don’t think Putin or the Russian military was prepared for losses like this. Their 1980s military equipment can not stand up to modern smart weapons. The results from their military operations have been similar to the results that Iraq had during the Gulf War. I have read a few articles that was based on interviews with retired Russian generals that are saying Putin’s days are numbered. It is looking like Putin's administration will be overthrown if the losses keeps piling up with little to no progress in the Ukraine. My concern about Putin is the reaction he will have from an overthrow attempt.
Click to expand...

As a result of WWI, Western Europe and North American started moving away from "human wave" combat. There was attempt to rely more on weaponry rather than masses of soldiers to attack and defend. In addition commanders (and soldiers to a lesser extent) were taught to think on their own.

The Soviet Union and later Russia never got that memo.

The only way Russia achieves their BIG goal of taking over the entirety of Ukraine is by mobilization. But there are several reasons why that's probably not a direction they're going to go.

What's interesting now is how soon and much will the heavy weaponry make a difference on the side of Ukraine.
 
MichaelWinicki

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Hoofbite said:
This whole situation is crazy. Russia is publicly castrating themselves with every passing day. Ukraine is showing the world how resilient their people are. Saw rumors Putin has some form of cancer, which would kind of explain his dire need to try and cement his legacy ASAP (whatever it was to start with, it damn sure isn't what he wants it to be now) and now non-NATO countries are quickly looking for admittance.

Russia has literally destroyed itself in 60 days. They're cut off from foreign markets, businesses are abandoning them (McD's is out), and the rest of the world thinks they're a complete joke. I think it's going to be decades before they're looked at as anything other than a waste of everyone's time. The only thing they have is nuclear deterrent and nobody else is going to fire first. I'm sure every country is content with letting Russia rot from the inside-outward.
Click to expand...

I'm hoping Putin ushered out, some sort of more friendly, less ambitious regime takes over, tensions are reduced and the Russian people have a chance at a better future.
 
Hoofbite

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MichaelWinicki said:
I'm hoping Putin ushered out, some sort of more friendly, less ambitious regime takes over, tensions are reduced and the Russian people have a chance at a better future.
Click to expand...

That's the best case, but also seems like it's less likely than the next nutjob just taking over and continuing more of the same or escalating.

The disparity between what the average Russian likely goes through and any of their oligarchs is absolutely sickening. We all knew those people were more-or-less serfs, but the extent is pretty shocking. They haven't even raised enough money for a respectable army. They just shuttled all that money to their elite and left everyone else to rot. Not the entire country is on the brink of collapse.
 
nobody

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RJ_MacReady said:
Easy on paper.
Reality is that Turkey is one of our (US) most strategically important partners. It’s especially more important than two nordic countries.

That’s the reason we’ve had to put up with Erdogan’s mouth for so many years.
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I have to partially disagree with you. That was certainly true in the past, but Anti-American and Anti-NATO opinions in Turkey have been on the rise for several years now and it's clear that their growing relationship with Russia now fuels a lot of their actions. They're not the ally that they once were. Both sides have done things that ticked off the other. Turkey was even kicked out of the F-35 program a few years ago.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/after-six-decades-turkey-is-now-a-us-ally-in-name-only
 
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