CFZ Dallas Offense 2021 Stats analysis

[Blitzen]

I enjoy stats just like those here, but I really like a more in depth approach to face more telling data. For instance, I see plenty of posters that throw out points per game to prove a point about a particular QB’s ability. I am not trying to prove that Dak is bad or good-just throwing some data for your interpretation.

I put together some stat analysis regarding points per game last season (I excluded the Cooper Rush game and final game vs Philadelphia for obvious reasons) BUT included the San Francisco game too. I also removed points scored via special teams and defense to further illuminate offense scoring. I am not going to worry about starting field position when the defense sets the offense up in great field position (too much trouble). If you spot some issues with the stats, let me know so that I can adjust if needed.

The sixteen contests I analyzed revealed the offense averaged 25.81 points per game with a standard deviation of 8.92 points. Against teams that finished over 0.500 (again dropping the final Philly game and including SF game) the offense averaged 22.77 points per game in the nine contests with a standard deviation of 7.00 points. Lots of games had at least one special teams or defensive touchdowns over the entire season.

I checked out other top offenses to inspect their scoring too. Tampa Bay’s offense averaged 29.21 points per game with a standard deviation of 9.45 points (including the two playoff games). Against above 0.500 teams they averaged 25.8 PPG with a standard deviation of 9.89 points (10 games including postseason). KC offense averaged 28.35 PPG with a standard deviation of 11.42 points (including playoffs). Against over 0.500 teams, they averaged
29.92 points with a standard deviation of 12.65 points (in a whopping 14 games). Buffalo’s offense averaged 29.42 PPG with a standard deviation of 10.96 points. Against above 0.500 teams the offense they averaged 27.7 PPG with a standard deviation of 10.55 points (10 games including postseason).

I will update this later to get a better idea as to where the Cowboys rank with all the other offenses based on my criteria.

 

[KJJ]

Wish we had last years passing and scoring offense to go along with this years pass rush.

 

[DogFace]

Wish we had last years passing and scoring offense to go along with this years pass rush.

I did too.

Now I think I like quite a bit of old school smash mouth running. Take the other teams will with physicality. Most teams aren’t set up to stop that either. That 3rd and long run conversion was a spirit crusher vs the Giants. I loved it.

It would be nice if we can pass when we wanted or needed to as well.

 

[pete026]

I would argue if you are being completely unbiased, you would have to evaluate the other team's games against "compromised" opponents like Philly game for the Cowboys. Otherwise, it should stay.

But here is the problem. You do that and you start down rabbit holes. Well this team was in "garbage point" territory with 13 minutes left in such and such game. No, I think it was at the 18 minute point. It will never resolve it, people will argue stats to make anything fit their agenda.

Like the drunk with the lamp post; they use it for support, not illumination.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Wish we had last years passing and scoring offense to go along with this years pass rush.

We will once Dak gets back. If they open up the passing game a little more with Rush they could do it as well.

 

[USArmyVet]

Wish we had last years passing and scoring offense to go along with this years pass rush.

Well, 2 wins in a row so what's not to like?

 

[Blitzen]

I’ve put some more teams in the mix to try to sort through. I only excluded games if a squad sat their starters. Or if a starting QB could not make the start. That way, I’m hedging against other biases. I didn’t worry about garbage time at all-just offense scoring excluding touchdowns scored directly by defense or special teams.

SD= standard deviation
Offensive scoring against all teams:

1. Bills 29.42 PPG 10.96 SD
2. Bucs 29.21 PPG 9.45 SD
3. Chiefs 28.35 PPG 11.42 SD
4. Chargers 27.06 PPG 9.79 SD
5. Bengals 26.45 PPG 7.54 SD
6. Rams 26.33 PPG 7.23 SD
7. Cowboys 25.81 PPG 8.92 SD
8. Packers 25.56 PPG 9.02 SD
9. Patriots 25.44 PPG 12.23 SD
10. Colts 25.29 PPG 9.04 SD
11. Cardinals 24.77 PPG 8.94 SD
12. Eagles 23.82 PPG 8.73 SD
13. Vikings 23.76 PPG 7.78 SD
14. 49ers 23.3 PPG 7.74 SD
15. Titans 22.61 PPG 7.85 SD

Offensive scoring vs above 0.500 teams:

1. Chiefs 29.92 PPG 12.65 SD (14 games)
2. Chargers 29 PPG 6.27 SD (9 games)
3. Bills 27.7 PPG 10.55 SD (10 games)
4. Bucs 25.8 PPG 9.89 (10 games)
5. Bengals 25.72 PPG 5.17 SD (11 games)
6. Colts 25.33 PPG 7.86 SD (9 games)
7. Vikings 24.67 PPG 7.59 SD (9 games)
8. Cardinals 24.33 PPG 8.96 SD (9 games)
9. Rams 24.08 PPG 6.45 SD (12 games)
10. Cowboys 22.77 PPG SD 7.00 (9 games)
11. Eagles 22.25 PPG 8.84 SD (9 games)
12. Packers 21.14 PPG 9.64 SD (only 7 games)
13. Titans 21.09 PPG 6.60 SD (11 games)
14. Patriots 20.36 PPG 6.6 SD (9 games)
15. 49ers 19.75 PPG 7.15 SD (12 games)

My main interest is how the team shapes up against the better teams, so that’s where I focus but you can spot false narratives and hidden narratives based on this compilation.

Yeah, this confirms my opinion that the offense last season was meh against better teams (not just the playoffs). Barely below 23 PPG means that those huge numbers vs bottom tier squads or backups means little when facing higher quality competition. Dak evidently does not make much difference with the higher end clubs, but DOES vs lower end clubs (considering variance between the lists). This is not to say he is bad-but he is obviously not elevating results vs higher end teams.

This also means how much this team and other teams lower on this list must rely upon their defense to win. It also shows how poorly some of the club’s defenses played last season vs good competition (considering some of the teams higher on the list).

All in all, the team needs to stick with the game plan being currently employed to give them the best chance at winning big games. Stay fairly conservative while taking the shots given by the defense and ask that the receivers hold onto the ball, lol. Rest the strength of the team like the 49ers do.

 

[Batman1980]

Well, 2 wins in a row so what's not to like?

The fact that it's pretty much been a low-scoring, bus-driving style of offense instead of the high octane offense we usually see with Dak.

 

[USArmyVet]

The fact that it's pretty much been a low-scoring, bus-driving style of offense instead of the high octane offense we usually see with Dak.

So the high octane offense with Dak that has resulted in playoff success? Oh wait. Sorry, whether by 1 point or 30 points a win is a win and that is what Dallas needs regardless of the QB.

 

[KJJ]

I did too.

Now I think I like quite a bit of old school smash mouth running. Take the other teams will with physicality. Most teams aren’t set up to stop that either. That 3rd and long run conversion was a spirit crusher vs the Giants. I loved it.

It would be nice if we can pass when we wanted or needed to as well.

We’re definitely going need some running game but the passing game is going to have to get more productive if we’re going to compete with some of the teams we have coming up. You’re not going score many points if your QB is passing the ball for around 200 yards and one TD every week. Against the Giants our offense was pretty dead until we got behind after Saquon Barkley’s run. That woke us up. If we get down by 2 or more scores we’re going to be in real trouble if we can’t get the ball down the field with the passing game.

 

[KJJ]

Well, 2 wins in a row so what's not to like?

We’re not going to keep winning games that come down to the last possession every week with around 200 yards passing and one passing TD. We’re winning because of our defense. We’re not scoring many TDs but we’re not giving up many.

 

[john van brocklin]

I enjoy stats just like those here, but I really like a more in depth approach to face more telling data. For instance, I see plenty of posters that throw out points per game to prove a point about a particular QB’s ability. I am not trying to prove that Dak is bad or good-just throwing some data for your interpretation.

I put together some stat analysis regarding points per game last season (I excluded the Cooper Rush game and final game vs Philadelphia for obvious reasons) BUT included the San Francisco game too. I also removed points scored via special teams and defense to further illuminate offense scoring. I am not going to worry about starting field position when the defense sets the offense up in great field position (too much trouble). If you spot some issues with the stats, let me know so that I can adjust if needed.

The sixteen contests I analyzed revealed the offense averaged 25.81 points per game with a standard deviation of 8.92 points. Against teams that finished over 0.500 (again dropping the final Philly game and including SF game) the offense averaged 22.77 points per game in the nine contests with a standard deviation of 7.00 points. Lots of games had at least one special teams or defensive touchdowns over the entire season.

I checked out other top offenses to inspect their scoring too. Tampa Bay’s offense averaged 29.21 points per game with a standard deviation of 9.45 points (including the two playoff games). Against above 0.500 teams they averaged 25.8 PPG with a standard deviation of 9.89 points (10 games including postseason). KC offense averaged 28.35 PPG with a standard deviation of 11.42 points (including playoffs). Against over 0.500 teams, they averaged
29.92 points with a standard deviation of 12.65 points (in a whopping 14 games). Buffalo’s offense averaged 29.42 PPG with a standard deviation of 10.96 points. Against above 0.500 teams the offense they averaged 27.7 PPG with a standard deviation of 10.55 points (10 games including postseason).

I will update this later to get a better idea as to where the Cowboys rank with all the other offenses based on my criteria.

Interesting stuff,
Not sure what you mean by standard deviation?

 

[Blitzen]

Interesting stuff,
Not sure what you mean by standard deviation?

Standard deviation is a statistical term that assists in probabilities and variance. You may have heard of a bell curve. You take a population of data points and can give the likelihood of future events falling within a standard deviation below or above the mean of said data points. The standard deviation is basically a set distance away from the mean that shows variance in the data points collected. The Cowboy’s offense could be expected to supply 22.7 points plus or minus 7 points 68% of the time last season versus above 0.500 teams. The smaller the standard deviation the less variance of the data points (in this case offense scoring). The Bengals had a more consistent offensive output playing teams over 0.500 if you look at the data.

 

[USArmyVet]

We’re definitely going need some running game but the passing game is going to have to get more productive if we’re going to compete with some of the teams we have coming up. You’re not going score many points if your QB is passing the ball for around 200 yards and one TD every week. Against the Giants our offense was pretty dead until we got behind after Saquon Barkley’s run. That woke us up. If we get down by 2 or more scores we’re going to be in real trouble if we can’t get the ball down the field with the passing game.

2016 passing totals by Dak Prescott in the wins that year:

292 0 TD's
248 1 TD
245 2 TD's
227 1 TD
247 3 TD's
287 2 TD's
247 3 TD's
319 2 TD's
301 3 TD's
195 1 TD
139 1 TD
279 0 TD's
212 3 TD's

So in 2016 the 13 wins saw Dak pass for an average of 249 yards and 1.69 TD's per game......


.....so you were saying?????

 

[Oz-of-Cowboy-Country]

Last year?

 

[KJJ]

2016 passing totals by Dak Prescott in the wins that year:

292 0 TD's
248 1 TD
245 2 TD's
227 1 TD
247 3 TD's
287 2 TD's
247 3 TD's
319 2 TD's
301 3 TD's
195 1 TD
139 1 TD
279 0 TD's
212 3 TD's

So in 2016 the 13 wins saw Dak pass for an average of 249 yards and 1.69 TD's per game......


.....so you were saying?????

Cooper Rush hasn’t come close to averaging 249 yards passing in his first two starts this season. Plus Dak finished with 23 TD passes in 2016 and didn’t even play the second half of the season finale against Philly. As you pointed out he had four games with three TD passes and he was a rookie. Cooper Rush will finish with 17 TD passes on his current pace in a 17 game season. The big difference in 2016 was that Zeke was tearing it up. He scored 15 rushing TDs that season, so our running game was generating a lot of offense and TDs. We scored over 30 points six times in 2016 including a 40 point game. We were averaging around 28 points a game. We’re averaging well under that right now.

 

[john van brocklin]

Standard deviation is a statistical term that assists in probabilities and variance. You may have heard of a bell curve. You take a population of data points and can give the likelihood of future events falling within a standard deviation below or above the mean of said data points. The standard deviation is basically a set distance away from the mean that shows variance in the data points collected. The Cowboy’s offense could be expected to supply 22.7 points plus or minus 7 points 68% of the time last season versus above 0.500 teams. The smaller the standard deviation the less variance of the data points (in this case offense scoring). The Bengals had a more consistent offensive output playing teams over 0.500 if you look at the data.

Thanks
You must have taken a few math classes along the way!

 

[xwalker]

I’ve put some more teams in the mix to try to sort through. I only excluded games if a squad sat their starters. Or if a starting QB could not make the start. That way, I’m hedging against other biases. I didn’t worry about garbage time at all-just offense scoring excluding touchdowns scored directly by defense or special teams.

SD= standard deviation
Offensive scoring against all teams:

1. Bills 29.42 PPG 10.96 SD
2. Bucs 29.21 PPG 9.45 SD
3. Chiefs 28.35 PPG 11.42 SD
4. Chargers 27.06 PPG 9.79 SD
5. Bengals 26.45 PPG 7.54 SD
6. Rams 26.33 PPG 7.23 SD
7. Cowboys 25.81 PPG 8.92 SD
8. Packers 25.56 PPG 9.02 SD
9. Patriots 25.44 PPG 12.23 SD
10. Colts 25.29 PPG 9.04 SD
11. Cardinals 24.77 PPG 8.94 SD
12. Eagles 23.82 PPG 8.73 SD
13. Vikings 23.76 PPG 7.78 SD
14. 49ers 23.3 PPG 7.74 SD
15. Titans 22.61 PPG 7.85 SD

Offensive scoring vs above 0.500 teams:

1. Chiefs 29.92 PPG 12.65 SD (14 games)
2. Chargers 29 PPG 6.27 SD (9 games)
3. Bills 27.7 PPG 10.55 SD (10 games)
4. Bucs 25.8 PPG 9.89 (10 games)
5. Bengals 25.72 PPG 5.17 SD (11 games)
6. Colts 25.33 PPG 7.86 SD (9 games)
7. Vikings 24.67 PPG 7.59 SD (9 games)
8. Cardinals 24.33 PPG 8.96 SD (9 games)
9. Rams 24.08 PPG 6.45 SD (12 games)
10. Cowboys 22.77 PPG SD 7.00 (9 games)
11. Eagles 22.25 PPG 8.84 SD (9 games)
12. Packers 21.14 PPG 9.64 SD (only 7 games)
13. Titans 21.09 PPG 6.60 SD (11 games)
14. Patriots 20.36 PPG 6.6 SD (9 games)
15. 49ers 19.75 PPG 7.15 SD (12 games)

My main interest is how the team shapes up against the better teams, so that’s where I focus but you can spot false narratives and hidden narratives based on this compilation.

Yeah, this confirms my opinion that the offense last season was meh against better teams (not just the playoffs). Barely below 23 PPG means that those huge numbers vs bottom tier squads or backups means little when facing higher quality competition. Dak evidently does not make much difference with the higher end clubs, but DOES vs lower end clubs (considering variance between the lists). This is not to say he is bad-but he is obviously not elevating results vs higher end teams.

This also means how much this team and other teams lower on this list must rely upon their defense to win. It also shows how poorly some of the club’s defenses played last season vs good competition (considering some of the teams higher on the list).

All in all, the team needs to stick with the game plan being currently employed to give them the best chance at winning big games. Stay fairly conservative while taking the shots given by the defense and ask that the receivers hold onto the ball, lol. Rest the strength of the team like the 49ers do.

Good effort compiling the stats.
- Note: Blowout wins throw off the averages.

• Note: In all of the following stats, I'm including the playoff game (opponent win/loss% based on regular season).
  
• Some interesting observations:
  • In their top 4 games with the most passing yards
    • 3 of the 4 opponents were teams above .500
      • 2 opponents were 10-7
      • 1 opponent was 13-4
  • Passing vs teams above/below .500
    • 287 passing yards vs teams over .500
    • 271 passing yards vs teams under .500
  • In games with a score difference of 7 points or less
    • 25.5 points vs teams over .500
    • 25.3 points vs teams under .500
  • Rushing
    • In all losses they rushed for less than 100 yards.
    • They won all games when they rushed for more than 100 yards.
    • When the opponent out rushed them by 25 or more yards, they were 0-5.
    • They were 2-5 when they allowed more than 125 yards rushing.
• Playoff Game
  • They had 230 passing yards in the playoff game.
    • They were 5-2 in games with less than 230 passing yards.
  • They had 77 rushing yards in the playoff game.
    • They lost all games when they had 77 or less rushing yards.
  • They allowed 169 yards rushing in the playoff game.
    • They lost all games when they allowed 169 or more yards rushing.

 

[shabazz]

We’re not going to keep winning games that come down to the last possession every week with around 200 yards passing and one passing TD. We’re winning because of our defense. We’re not scoring many TDs but we’re not giving up many.

Some disregard the 180 yards of rushing that we had last week. Hard for a QB to get 350 yards of passing while that is going on.

I would say that this team can have sucess with a more balanced offense. We weren't getting that last year and it don't work in the long run.

 

[xwalker]

So the high octane offense with Dak that has resulted in playoff success? Oh wait. Sorry, whether by 1 point or 30 points a win is a win and that is what Dallas needs regardless of the QB.

• Rush for less than 78 yards = Loss (100% of the games in 2021 & 2022)
  • They rushed for 77 yards in the playoff loss to the Niners.
  • They rushed for 71 yards vs Tampa in game 1 of 2022.
  • In 2021, they lost all games when they rushed for less 78 yards.
  • In 2022, they rushed for over 100 yards in the 2 wins.
• Rush for more than 100 yards = Win (100% of the games in 2021 & 2022)
  • In 2021, they won all games when they rushed for more than 100 yards.
  • In 2022, they won all games when they rushed for more than 100 yards.
• Summary:
  • Regardless of QB performance, they're doomed if they don't rush for more than 77 yards.