Dane Bruglar's Top 100-RB's

[Cowboyny]

Yes, I did but you make a good point about receivers. There are 124 catches that need replacing ( Zeke, Brown, Shultz and Hilton) for players not long on the team. I know they like Fergurson but he played in 16 games starting 8 but only had 19 catches. Just don't know if he's ready. It's why a TE with 26, 58 or 90 would not surprise me at all.

It also will depend on our new scheme, MM used more multi-receiver sets and employed a FB. Outside of a year or two, the TE position wasn't much of a factor with his GB teams.

 

[Cowboyny]

If you see the drop off in the SF game once Pollard went down, it should be clear that our ‘back up’ cannot be a back up but a starting quality RB

In any event I don’t believe Pollard can last the whole season as the lead back

I wouldn't worry so much, this class is loaded with quality #1 back options, all the way through probably the 5th rd. Miller from TCU is the favorite and he ran over 1,400 yards last yr, he is a legitimate bell cow power back.

 

[gimmesix]

Think we are going to get a lot of different opinions with this positional grouping:

7-Robinson
20-Gibbs-Combine
61-Achane-Combine
62-Charbonnet
67-Spears-private workout
88-Bigsby-Combine
90-Johnson-Combine

Notice there are a ton of backs still available after the top 100, which makes taking a high RB very risky, some ranked past 100:

-Miller-Combine, 30 Visit
-Evans-30 Visit
-Abanikanda-Combine
-McIntosh-Senior Bowl
-Gray-Combine
-Chase Brown

I don't agree with this. In the draft, it gets more risky to hit on a player the later you wait to draft him. I understand that this draft is deep at the RB position, but still most of these players will go on to have mediocre NFL careers.

There are reasons Robinson and Gibbs are rated much higher than the other backs. Of course, any back can fail no matter where you take them, but you incur greater risk the longer you wait to take them.

Look at the year we took Elliott. Henry was a great pick in the second round, Drake has had only one year where he carried a heavy load while C.J. Prosise was a dud as was Tyler Irvin and Kenneth Dixon in the fourth. Devontae Booker has been OK but has only 527 career carries. DeAndre Washington and Paul Perkins in the fifth did practically nothing while Jordan Howard was a great pick for that round. Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins did not have much of a career, though. Neither did Keenan Reynolds, Kelvin Taylor and Darius Jackson in the sixth. In the seventh, Dwayne Washington, Daniel Lasco, Keith Marshall and Zac Brooks all failed.

The argument has been that we shouldn't have spent a first-round pick on Elliott, but unless we took Henry in the second, the only other RB really worth taking out of 17 was Howard. So three out of 17 turned out to be starter worthy.

Now, I know some will say that this is a much better RB draft than that, but there were plenty on here who championed players like Prosise, Booker and Perkins. We wait until the third, fourth, fifth round to take an RB and we have a better chance of ending up with a player like that than one who turns out to be great pick out of a bunch of duds.

We want to assume that it's easy to find a Tony Pollard in the fourth round, but for every Pollard there's a Bryce Love, Benny Snell Jr. and Justice Hill (the other fourth-round backs that year). In fact, looking at the back half of that draft, we were very lucky to hit on Pollard. He was the only one out of 16 backs taken from the fourth round on to turn into starter-quality. Now, the first three rounds were good that year, so let's hope we see some of that RB success this year (Damien Harris, Devin Singletary, David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, and Josh Jacobs). Only one swing and miss in the first three rounds that year, but the fourth round on should still serve as a cautionary tale. Maybe you end up with Pollard, but the odds are in favor of you ending up with Justice Hill.

 

[cowboyec]

my 3 favorites...
•bijan robinson,texas
•kendre miller,tcu
•kenny mcintosh,georgia

 

[morasp]

I don't agree with this. In the draft, it gets more risky to hit on a player the later you wait to draft him. I understand that this draft is deep at the RB position, but still most of these players will go on to have mediocre NFL careers.

There are reasons Robinson and Gibbs are rated much higher than the other backs. Of course, any back can fail no matter where you take them, but you incur greater risk the longer you wait to take them.

Look at the year we took Elliott. Henry was a great pick in the second round, Drake has had only one year where he carried a heavy load while C.J. Prosise was a dud as was Tyler Irvin and Kenneth Dixon in the fourth. Devontae Booker has been OK but has only 527 career carries. DeAndre Washington and Paul Perkins in the fifth did practically nothing while Jordan Howard was a great pick for that round. Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins did not have much of a career, though. Neither did Keenan Reynolds, Kelvin Taylor and Darius Jackson in the sixth. In the seventh, Dwayne Washington, Daniel Lasco, Keith Marshall and Zac Brooks all failed.

The argument has been that we shouldn't have spent a first-round pick on Elliott, but unless we took Henry in the second, the only other RB really worth taking out of 17 was Howard. So three out of 17 turned out to be starter worthy.

Now, I know some will say that this is a much better RB draft than that, but there were plenty on here who championed players like Prosise, Booker and Perkins. We wait until the third, fourth, fifth round to take an RB and we have a better chance of ending up with a player like that than one who turns out to be great pick out of a bunch of duds.

We want to assume that it's easy to find a Tony Pollard in the fourth round, but for every Pollard there's a Bryce Love, Benny Snell Jr. and Justice Hill (the other fourth-round backs that year). In fact, looking at the back half of that draft, we were very lucky to hit on Pollard. He was the only one out of 16 backs taken from the fourth round on to turn into starter-quality. Now, the first three rounds were good that year, so let's hope we see some of that RB success this year (Damien Harris, Devin Singletary, David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, and Josh Jacobs). Only one swing and miss in the first three rounds that year, but the fourth round on should still serve as a cautionary tale. Maybe you end up with Pollard, but the odds are in favor of you ending up with Justice Hill.

You're exactly right. Someone in another thread said if you take Robinson he'll give you 5 YPC and if you take a random RB in round 4 he'll give you 4.9 YPC. When I looked up recent fourth round RBs They averaged 3.7 YPC and went as low as 2.3.

 

[cnuball21]

If you see the drop off in the SF game once Pollard went down, it should be clear that our ‘back up’ cannot be a back up but a starting quality RB

In any event I don’t believe Pollard can last the whole season as the lead back

Yup. And we can get one of those types of quality RBs in the mid rounds…just like we did with Pollard.

 

[visionary]

Yup. And we can get one of those types of quality RBs in the mid rounds…just like we did with Pollard.

I’m just not sure the Cowboys believe that

 

[cnuball21]

I’m just not sure the Cowboys believe that

If they’re smart they should. They just gave a mid round RB 10+ million a year on the tag. And it’s a loaded RB class.

 

[xwalker]

Think we are going to get a lot of different opinions with this positional grouping:

7-Robinson
20-Gibbs-Combine
61-Achane-Combine
62-Charbonnet
67-Spears-private workout
88-Bigsby-Combine
90-Johnson-Combine

Notice there are a ton of backs still available after the top 100, which makes taking a high RB very risky, some ranked past 100:

-Miller-Combine, 30 Visit
-Evans-30 Visit
-Abanikanda-Combine
-McIntosh-Senior Bowl
-Gray-Combine
-Chase Brown

It’s clear is before Abandikanda’s pro day

I could see Abanikanda being one of the first 5 RBs drafted.

I'll bet that no 2 teams have the top 10 RBs ranked in the same order.

 

[Pass2Run]

Cowboys have most of my favorite RBs in for 30 visits.

Sweet!

 

[Cowboyny]

I could see Abanikanda being one of the first 5 RBs drafted.

I'll bet that no 2 teams have the top 10 RBs ranked in the same order.

I think the sweet spot for the Cowboys will be at 90, their 3rd rd pick, should have several good options still available. They can wait to 129 due to the depth, but there will far less.

 

[gimmesix]

You're exactly right. Someone in another thread said if you take Robinson he'll give you 5 YPC and if you take a random RB in round 4 he'll give you 4.9 YPC. When I looked up recent fourth round RBs They averaged 3.7 YPC and went as low as 2.3.

What usually seems to happen around draft time is fans bring up outliers. They say you can easily find a starting running back in the fifth round and bring up a great or very good running back who was drafted in that round while ignoring that the rest of them were not very good.

It isn't just the RB position, though, although I think that one gets that treatment more than others because the shelf life isn't as long. We reason that we'll only get one contract at peak level out of the back so we don't need to use a premium pick on one. But one contract for a first-round back is five years.

Now, I'm not saying we should absolutely draft a first-round running back, but considering how much higher rated Robinson and Gibbs are than their counterparts, I wouldn't have a problem with it. Any draft pick can fail, but your percentages are much higher with first-rounders. If you are not going to take one in the first, though, you need to be looking hard at those second- and third-rounders. Some years that can be sketchy, but it usually ends up being extra sketchy beyond that. I believe the year that we drafted Pollard was supposed to be a strong RB crop and it was mostly picked over by the end of the third round as far as quality backs go. Pollard was the outlier that year.

 

[xwalker]

You're exactly right. Someone in another thread said if you take Robinson he'll give you 5 YPC and if you take a random RB in round 4 he'll give you 4.9 YPC. When I looked up recent fourth round RBs They averaged 3.7 YPC and went as low as 2.3.

What usually seems to happen around draft time is fans bring up outliers. They say you can easily find a starting running back in the fifth round and bring up a great or very good running back who was drafted in that round while ignoring that the rest of them were not very good.

It isn't just the RB position, though, although I think that one gets that treatment more than others because the shelf life isn't as long. We reason that we'll only get one contract at peak level out of the back so we don't need to use a premium pick on one. But one contract for a first-round back is five years.

Now, I'm not saying we should absolutely draft a first-round running back, but considering how much higher rated Robinson and Gibbs are than their counterparts, I wouldn't have a problem with it. Any draft pick can fail, but your percentages are much higher with first-rounders. If you are not going to take one in the first, though, you need to be looking hard at those second- and third-rounders. Some years that can be sketchy, but it usually ends up being extra sketchy beyond that. I believe the year that we drafted Pollard was supposed to be a strong RB crop and i. Tget was mostly picked over by the end of the third round as far as quality backs go. Pollard was the outlier that year.

Those 4th/5th round RBs usually don't contribute as much in their rookie seasons as 1st round RBs. The ones that becomes starters often do it in about year 3.

The Cowboys can wait because they kept Pollard on the tag. If they had let Pollard go then they would almost be forced to draft a RB early to ensure that they get one they really like.

 

[gimmesix]

Those 4th/5th round RBs usually don't contribute as much in their rookie seasons as 1st round RBs. The ones that becomes starters often do it in about year 3.

The Cowboys can wait because they kept Pollard on the tag. If they had let Pollard go then they would almost be forced to draft a RB early to ensure that they get one they really like.

It still isn't very many who accomplish that. Go back to that 2016 draft. Tyler Irvin (fourth-rounder) had 19 total carries. Kenneth Dixon (fourth-rounder) didn't become a starter as injury cut short his career. Devontae Booker had 11 starts from 2016-2021 and wasn't on a team last year. DeAndre Washington (fifth-rounder) was a third back at best, but he did have a few starts. Paul Perkins (fifth-rounder) had 165 total carries. Those are the five taken before Jordan Howard (who would have been my choice that year if we hadn't taken Elliott).

So one out of six had a successful NFL career. This is a deeper class than that, so we might can wait until the third round, but after that, it generally gets pretty sketchy even in a good year, like the one where Pollard was selected. I do agree that Pollard (if healthy) gives us some cushion where using a first on the position isn't absolutely necessary, but you increase your probability of finding a game-changer if you do.

 

[xwalker]

L

It still isn't very many who accomplish that. Go back to that 2016 draft. Tyler Irvin (fourth-rounder) had 19 total carries. Kenneth Dixon (fourth-rounder) didn't become a starter as injury cut short his career. Devontae Booker had 11 starts from 2016-2021 and wasn't on a team last year. DeAndre Washington (fifth-rounder) was a third back at best, but he did have a few starts. Paul Perkins (fifth-rounder) had 165 total carries. Those are the five taken before Jordan Howard (who would have been my choice that year if we hadn't taken Elliott).

So one out of six had a successful NFL career. This is a deeper class than that, so we might can wait until the third round, but after that, it generally gets pretty sketchy even in a good year, like the one where Pollard was selected. I do agree that Pollard (if healthy) gives us some cushion where using a first on the position isn't absolutely necessary, but you increase your probability of finding a game-changer if you do.

It would be interesting to look at all 2022 starting RBs and see where they were drafted.

 

[morasp]

Those 4th/5th round RBs usually don't contribute as much in their rookie seasons as 1st round RBs. The ones that becomes starters often do it in about year 3.

The Cowboys can wait because they kept Pollard on the tag. If they had let Pollard go then they would almost be forced to draft a RB early to ensure that they get one they really like.

They'll need somebody. I don't think Pollard and Jones will be able cover Zeke's 231 carries.

 

[cnuball21]

It still isn't very many who accomplish that. Go back to that 2016 draft. Tyler Irvin (fourth-rounder) had 19 total carries. Kenneth Dixon (fourth-rounder) didn't become a starter as injury cut short his career. Devontae Booker had 11 starts from 2016-2021 and wasn't on a team last year. DeAndre Washington (fifth-rounder) was a third back at best, but he did have a few starts. Paul Perkins (fifth-rounder) had 165 total carries. Those are the five taken before Jordan Howard (who would have been my choice that year if we hadn't taken Elliott).

So one out of six had a successful NFL career. This is a deeper class than that, so we might can wait until the third round, but after that, it generally gets pretty sketchy even in a good year, like the one where Pollard was selected. I do agree that Pollard (if healthy) gives us some cushion where using a first on the position isn't absolutely necessary, but you increase your probability of finding a game-changer if you do.

The Chiefs just won the Super Bowl with an UDFA at RB and the best rookie last year was a 4th rounder.

 

[xwalker]

They'll need somebody. I don't think Pollard and Jones will be able cover Zeke's 231 carries.

Give Pollard an extra 31.
Jones 125.
3rd RB 75.

Jones had 192 carries in 2020.

 

[morasp]

Give Pollard an extra 31.
Jones 125.
3rd RB 75.

Jones had 192 carries in 2020.

If he can come in and play to his 5.1 YPC in 2020 I would be happy. His carries have gone down significantly his last two seasons as well as his YPC 4.2, 4.1. If he turns out to be a James Washington I'll be worried.

 

[gimmesix]

L

It would be interesting to look at all 2022 starting RBs and see where they were drafted.

But you'd have to look at volume, too, otherwise you're again looking at the outliers. If 20 backs are drafted and four end up as starters, it seems kind of silly to focus on the few that turned into starters and think that's what you'll get. Sure, you can, but the percentages are against it.