Risen Star
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Tier 1: Two prospects
Grades of 95 or higher. Elite prospects. Should be immediate NFL starters and project as perennial All-Pro players. Worthy of a top-five pick most years. I had no players in this tier in 2022.1. Bryce Young, QB, Alabama (95)
2. Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas (95)
Two players make this category this year, but they will likely be drafted in very different parts of Round 1. Young -- my QB1 in the class thanks to high-end poise in the pocket, ball placement and ability to create when things break down -- is in contention to be the No. 1 pick, while Robinson could get pushed down in the first round because of his position. He's the best running back prospect I've seen since Saquon Barkley came out of Penn State in 2018, but he probably won't join Barkley as a top-10 pick. Regardless, Robinson is a complete back with outstanding contact balance and should be a really good pro.
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Tier 2: Seven prospects
Grades between 92 and 94. A notch below the elite class but still considered a plug-and-play NFL starter with high-level potential. Worthy of a top-15 pick most years. I had nine players in this tier in 2022.3. C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State (94)
4. Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama (94)
5. Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia (94)
6. Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech (93)
7. Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois (93)
8. Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern (92)
9. Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon (92)
Stroud is another passer who could end up the No. 1 pick, but I have him just a notch below Young on my own board. And Anderson -- who has an explosive first step and quick, powerful hands -- is trending toward being the first defender (and non-QB) off the board at the end of the month. Two corners also make this group. Witherspoon has some really good instincts and burst in coverage, while Gonzalez can use his great arm length and plus speed to make plays on the ball.
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Tier 3: 12 prospects
Grades between 90 and 91. Good NFL starters and are considered strong values in the bottom half of Round 1 in any given draft class. I had 14 players in this tier in 2022.10. Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida (91)
11. Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa (91)
12. Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia (91)
13. Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia (91)
14. Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah (91)
15. Will Levis, QB, Kentucky (90)
16. Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State (90)
17. Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee (90)
18. Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State (90)
19. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State (90)
20. Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame (90)
21. Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College (90)
"Traits" sums up the upper part of this tier, starting with Richardson. He has the strongest arm in the class, excellent speed for a quarterback and a 6-foot-4 frame, but he needs work with his mechanics and ball placement. Van Ness plays with power and speed, and Smith has really good take-off quickness and change-of-direction ability. All three of these players have a high ceiling.
The top two receivers fall here, too. Smith-Njigba is a precise route runner, while Flowers has explosive wheels. They both have a chance to be big contributors right out of the gate in the NFL, but this class doesn't have the elite WR prospect we've seen in the past. For context, four wideouts had a higher grade in 2022 (Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Jameson Williams and Chris Olave).