Before predicting W’s and L’s on next year’s schedule-keep these stats in mind

Bobhaze

Bobhaze

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The 2023 NFL schedule is set to be released Thurs, May 11th. As is the usual habit of fans, once the Cowboys schedule is released, the season won-loss prediction records will roll in. Our schedule will be declared ”easy” by some, “most difficult” by many others.

In reality, predicting wins and losses is much harder in the NFL than almost all other pro sports. Here are some interesting stats that make predicting an NFL team’s fortunes difficult:
  • According to NFL stats since 2013, approximately 35% of NFL game outcomes are considered “upsets”, meaning the team favored to win by Vegas oddsmakers will not win. Article on this: https://www.wsn.com/betting-guide/h...y close attention to the,that end in an upset.
  • The most common final score in the entirety of NFL history is 20-17. A three point margin of victory is very common. Meaning the real difference between SB champ Kansas City and a so called bad team like the Texans is actually very thin.
  • In the 2022 NFL season, there were 543 regular season games played (should have been 544 but the Buffalo-Cincy game was cancelled) and over 160 of those games were upsets or unexpectedly close.
  • It’s hard for teams who make the playoffs one year to also make it the next year. Over the last 10 years, an average of 5.8 teams per year make the playoffs that were not the year prior. In 2017-18, as many as eight new teams made the playoffs that did not the year before. Here’s a Yahoo Sports article on that subject: https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-bettin...-last-year-will-miss-this-year-152351419.html
Bottom line- it’s fun to look at our schedule and predict how many wins and losses and against whom. But predicting the NFL is not easy. According to stats, 35% of games next year will be upsets. That’s part of what makes NFL football so intriguing.
 
Bobhaze said:
The 2023 NFL schedule is set to be released Thurs, May 11th. As is the usual habit of fans, once the Cowboys schedule is released, the season won-loss prediction records will roll in. Our schedule will be declared ”easy” by some, “most difficult” by many others.

In reality, predicting wins and losses is much harder in the NFL than almost all other pro sports. Here are some interesting stats that make predicting an NFL team’s fortunes difficult:
  • According to NFL stats since 2013, approximately 35% of NFL game outcomes are considered “upsets”, meaning the team favored to win by Vegas oddsmakers will not win. Article on this: https://www.wsn.com/betting-guide/how-pick-nfl-upsets/#:~:text=Pay close attention to the,that end in an upset.
  • The most common final score in the entirety of NFL history is 20-17. A three point margin of victory is very common. Meaning the real difference between SB champ Kansas City and a so called bad team like the Texans is actually very thin.
  • In the 2022 NFL season, there were 543 regular season games played (should have been 544 but the Buffalo-Cincy game was cancelled) and over 160 of those games were upsets or unexpectedly close.
  • It’s hard for teams who make the playoffs one year to also make it the next year. Over the last 10 years, an average of 5.8 teams per year make the playoffs that were not the year prior. In 2017-18, as many as eight new teams made the playoffs that did not the year before. Here’s a Yahoo Sports article on that subject: https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-bettin...-last-year-will-miss-this-year-152351419.html
Bottom line- it’s fun to look at our schedule and predict how many wins and losses and against whom. But predicting the NFL is not easy. According to stats, 35% of games next year will be upsets. That’s part of what makes NFL football so intriguing.
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How much subjectivity is there? Can't really be quantified, but with all the metrics and other measurables, it's just a crapshoot beyond bad luck events such as injuries and personal issues.
So, maybe 35% subjectivity? :muttley:
 
The NFL is so unpredictable that it’s the most difficult major sport to wager on. If you truly want to raise your winning percentage wager on anything but the NFL. College football, basketball, NBA and MLB.

The casinos , sports books and bookies make their living off the NFL which carries them the rest of the year .
 
People predicting W/L as if nothing is going to change weekly is 1000x more ridiculous than draft grades the day after.
 
As long as it's all in good fun, it's harmless.
:flagwave:
As soon as folks start arguing about their predictions, I usually check out, in part because of all the data in the OP.
 
Dallasfann said:
There will be the same bufoons who every year predict 7 wins then continue to ***** about EVERYTHING when we are at 12 wins. Such a sad life so many lead on this board.
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Thats the most hilarious part. The trolls predict 8 or less wins, then we win 12 games again and win a playoff game and they are trying to tell us they told us so. LOL :lmao::lmao::lmao2::lmao2::lmao::lmao:

Has to be troll logic at its finest!
 
Dallasfann said:
There will be the same bufoons who every year predict 7 wins then continue to ***** about EVERYTHING when we are at 12 wins. Such a sad life so many lead on this board.
Click to expand...

Lol 100%
 
They are 12-5 again unless Dak goes down, then you’re looking at 2020.

Whether that’s good enough to win the east or not is probably the key.
 
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