Before predicting W’s and L’s on next year’s schedule-keep these stats in mind

[atlantacowboy]

On paper, this should be our year. But, we all know they melt in the playoffs. Not sure how you fix it.

 

[Cowboys5217]

On paper, this should be our year. But, we all know they melt in the playoffs. Not sure how you fix it.

It might be our year in the NFC, but I don't see that we have caught up to KC for the SB unless injuries become an issue for the Chiefs.

 

[CWR]

die hard fans always ignore the players that leave cut etc, and same for coaches.
They only look at what was added, and assume it was all an upgrade.

Truth is coaches all on offense were let go, shultz was a key player, and some others are gone.

We cant accurately know if all these changes will translate into a better team than 2022.
IMO it is wait and see, at least 8 games and see what transpires.

Predicting is just for fun imo.

Last year I said dallas 10-7 and maybe 11-6, just guessing, and I was low but close.

Few weeks back I said 9-8 lol, but after looking at when they play certain teams, will probably upgrade that to higher level maybe 11-6

One example is a guy like duece, he may be great, or just meh, he may be used alot, or not much at all, we cant know.
Mike calling plays, will he be better than km, maybe but also maybe not, no way to know.

I'm not overlooking the coaches and players that left though. They are a part of my equation and fit the addition by subtraction mold. Time will tell.

 

[Flamma]

I have an interesting question. How many times has a team won 12 or more games two years in a row and were wildcards in both years? Has that ever happened?

 

[Bobhaze]

On paper, this should be our year. But, we all know they melt in the playoffs. Not sure how you fix it.

The Cowboys have had a problem with mental and physical toughness for many years. Good in the regular season, then when the physicality of the playoffs hits they tended to wilt against teams that punched them in the mouth.

It’s gotten a little better under Big Mac but this team still needs some toughness upgrades. Some of this problem has to be an issue of team culture fostered by the Jones boys because it has been a problem under multiple coaches and lots of different players.

 

[jazzcat22]

It might be our year in the NFC, but I don't see that we have caught up to KC for the SB unless injuries become an issue for the Chiefs.

Not really. If Dallas gets there, that makes them as good as KC or any other team making it. As it is very tough to get to a SB.
Anything can happen with or without injuries.

So no excuses if Dallas were to beat KC and KC had injuries...because if the other way around, our own fans would say the opposite.

 

[atlantacowboy]

It might be our year in the NFC, but I don't see that we have caught up to KC for the SB unless injuries become an issue for the Chiefs.

I don't see how we have caught up to Philly or SF.

 

[CCBoy]

That’s because the Cowboys will be better.

Team glue and cohesion says it all...

 

[CCBoy]

The Cowboys have had a problem with mental and physical toughness for many years. Good in the regular season, then when the physicality of the playoffs hits they tended to wilt against teams that punched them in the mouth.

It’s gotten a little better under Big Mac but this team still needs some toughness upgrades. Some of this problem has to be an issue of team culture fostered by the Jones boys because it has been a problem under multiple coaches and lots of different players.

Parsons should walk in every single day and growl: 'Just rip his head off!'

 

[CCBoy]

Not really. If Dallas gets there, that makes them as good as KC or any other team making it. As it is very tough to get to a SB.
Anything can happen with or without injuries.

So no excuses if Dallas were to beat KC and KC had injuries...because if the other way around, our own fans would say the opposite.

Course rules for football.

 

[CCBoy]

Dak will still own the NFC East and go 6-0

 

[JW82]

20-0

The only accurate prediction!

 

[conner01]

Stats or previous seasons are fun to look at but mean nothing. If we can stay healthy we will make the playoffs. That I have no doubt
It’s after that I worry about

 

[Silverz1972]

That is the toughest schedule i have seen in a long time.

 

[Captain43Crash]

Philly is not going to be as good as last year. Unfortunately, neither are the Cowboys.

Wrong!

We will be better. There I fixed it.

On Philly you are probably correct.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The 2023 NFL schedule is set to be released Thurs, May 11th. As is the usual habit of fans, once the Cowboys schedule is released, the season won-loss prediction records will roll in. Our schedule will be declared ”easy” by some, “most difficult” by many others.

In reality, predicting wins and losses is much harder in the NFL than almost all other pro sports. Here are some interesting stats that make predicting an NFL team’s fortunes difficult:

• According to NFL stats since 2013, approximately 35% of NFL game outcomes are considered “upsets”, meaning the team favored to win by Vegas oddsmakers will not win. Article on this: https://www.wsn.com/betting-guide/how-pick-nfl-upsets/#:~:text=Pay close attention to the,that end in an upset.
• The most common final score in the entirety of NFL history is 20-17. A three point margin of victory is very common. Meaning the real difference between SB champ Kansas City and a so called bad team like the Texans is actually very thin.
• In the 2022 NFL season, there were 543 regular season games played (should have been 544 but the Buffalo-Cincy game was cancelled) and over 160 of those games were upsets or unexpectedly close.
• It’s hard for teams who make the playoffs one year to also make it the next year. Over the last 10 years, an average of 5.8 teams per year make the playoffs that were not the year prior. In 2017-18, as many as eight new teams made the playoffs that did not the year before. Here’s a Yahoo Sports article on that subject: https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-bettin...-last-year-will-miss-this-year-152351419.html

Bottom line- it’s fun to look at our schedule and predict how many wins and losses and against whom. But predicting the NFL is not easy. According to stats, 35% of games next year will be upsets. That’s part of what makes NFL football so intriguing.

That is 35% of games. The distribution between teams is not equal. I think that is a key to success: do not get upset. Consistency.

It is so hard to predict how the team is going to do. The defense is easier to project because of all the returning talent and talent added. The culture has been in place for several years now to good effect.

Offense we really do not know what we are going to get. What we know raises more questions than answers.

Schottenheimer is our new OC. How much is he bringing over from Seattle and his repertoire?
Same for MM calling plays. How are they dividing the workload? How much are they influencing design of what aspects?
We are presumably going to need to figure out 6 and 7 man protections given our top RB. MM says that scheme is going to change too. That in turn leads to questions about what formations they are going to emphasize.

On and on down the rabbit hole you can go. I have ideas and hopes for some of those answers but if we are honest with ourselves we do not know what we are getting on offense. It could go from bad to good and anywhere in between.

 

[NotForLong]

Philly is not going to be as good as last year. Unfortunately, neither are the Cowboys.

What?. . . Cowboys are an improved team. . . Eagles bled talent

 

[MWH1967]

My opinion means nothing, yes, but the history speaks for itself. My God, you people get so butthurt here.

Not butthurt, just unwilling to except gas filled colon predictions based on nothing. The roster is better. health and luck play a bigger part.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

My opinion means nothing, yes, but the history speaks for itself. My God, you people get so butthurt here.

I'll play. What history?

 

[doomsday9084]

A few things to add:
- No one really likes to talk about it but injuries frequently play a big role in who does well and who is a disappointment. Outside of Tyron Smith, that's generally hard to predict.
- As BobHaze says, a lot of games are close and when you are talking that margin, countless individual plays could have changed the result of the game. Here enters the impact of refereeing. Even if they get 95% right, that 5% is more than enough to change the outcome of a 3 point game. Again, hard to predict.

Dallas has a tough schedule this year on paper. At least Philly does too. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams have worse records as a result despite not actually being worse.