What are the real world chances of finding a QB after round one?

[StarOfGlory]

Many posters would like to start drafting QB's every other year or so. And we should do so. There should always be a healthy competition to keep the position fresh, just like all other positions. A team will probably find a decent backup in a later round, or even get lucky and find a starter. How likely is this scenario?

Here are all the QB's selected on Day Two of the draft since 2016 (Dak's draft year):

Day 2 QB's
2023: Will Levis, Hendon Hooker
2022: Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Matt Corrall
2021: Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Davis Mills
2020: Jalen Hurts
2019: Drew Lock, Will Grier
2018: Mason Rudolph
2017: Desone Kizer, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard
2016: Christian Hackenberg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler

A rather sobering list. The Eagles obviously hit big with Hurts. Every other QB is a JAG, backup or out of the league. Hit rate for starter? 1 out of 18.

What happened in the 3rd and 4th round since 2016? Other than Dak and Purdy, nothing but JAG's and players out of the league. 50 QB's, two starters.

Adding this up, that means since 2016, only three QB's out of 68 drafted after the first round became solid starters: Dak, Purdy, and Hurts. Two have been to a Super Bowl, and only one has won the big game. You might get lucky and find a UDFA (Romo). If you want to include 1999 for UDFA, add Warner.

Going back to 2000, Brady, Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, and Jalen Hurts are the only non-1st round QB's to win a Super Bowl. The 1st rounders that did win are Big Ben, Manning, Rodgers, Flacco, Mahomes, and Stafford.

It's hard to find a QB in this league. If you're not signing a FA or trading for a QB, a team must draft and take their shot probably no less than once every two years.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Many posters would like to start drafting QB's every other year or so. And we should do so. There should always be a healthy competition to keep the position fresh, just like all other positions. A team will probably find a decent backup in a later round, or even get lucky and find a starter. How likely is this scenario?

Here are all the QB's selected on Day Two of the draft since 2016 (Dak's draft year):

Day 2 QB's
2023: Will Levis, Hendon Hooker
2022: Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Matt Corrall
2021: Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Davis Mills
2020: Jalen Hurts
2019: Drew Lock, Will Grier
2018: Mason Rudolph
2017: Desone Kizer, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard
2016: Christian Hackenberg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler

A rather sobering list. The Eagles obviously hit big with Hurts. Every other QB is a JAG, backup or out of the league. Hit rate for starter? 1 out of 18.

What happened in the 3rd and 4th round since 2016? Other than Dak and Purdy, nothing but JAG's and players out of the league. 50 QB's, two starters.

Adding this up, that means since 2016, only three QB's out of 68 drafted after the first round became solid starters: Dak, Purdy, and Hurts. Two have been to a Super Bowl, and only one has won the big game. You might get lucky and find a UDFA (Romo). If you want to include 1999 for UDFA, add Warner.

Going back to 2000, Brady, Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, and Jalen Hurts are the only non-1st round QB's to win a Super Bowl. The 1st rounders that did win are Big Ben, Manning, Rodgers, Flacco, Mahomes, and Stafford.

It's hard to find a QB in this league. If you're not signing a FA or trading for a QB, a team must draft and take their shot probably no less than once every two years.

I would argue that eagles didn't hit it big with Hurts. Hurts can't carry the team and that was obvious in 2023. he needs a strong supporting cast. but he has shown he is capable of getting the team over the top when given those resources. you can many other QBs on the eagles and they see the same success. they have top 3 WR group. one of the top 5 TEs. the best OL in the league. a 2000 yard back. a top 3 defense. and the tush push, which makes every series into a 1st and 9 essentially.

and to your point, that's a very sobering list of QBs. which only goes to show that you have to take a QB on day 1, high in the draft or you have better odds buying a lottery ticket.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

. Hurts can't carry the team and that was obvious in 2023. he needs a strong supporting cast.

Just my take, but I'm now convinced this applies to EVERY NFL QB. Obviously, some QBs need a stronger supporting cast than others but the Chiefs lost to the Eagles convinced me EVEN Mahomes ( with the league's best HC and OC ) can't do it alone.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

Just my take, but I'm now convinced this applies to EVERY NFL QB. Obviously, some QBs need a stronger supporting cast than others but the Chiefs lost to the Eagles convinced me EVEN Mahomes ( with the league's best HC and OC ) can't do it alone.

Mahomes ain’t the one to do this with.

He’s 2-1 in Super Bowls with no WRs or run game.

Many thought once Hill left Mahomes would be exposed. Spoiler: he wasn’t.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Here are all the QB's selected on Day Two of the draft since 2016 (Dak's draft year):

Day 2 QB's
2023: Will Levis, Hendon Hooker
2022: Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Matt Corrall
2021: Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Davis Mills
2020: Jalen Hurts
2019: Drew Lock, Will Grier
2018: Mason Rudolph
2017: Desone Kizer, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard
2016: Christian Hackenberg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler

I'm confused. The title of the thread is "What are the real world chances of finding a QB after round one?" and all that is provided in the OP are just the day 2 picks since 2016.

Any notable day 3 picks? Until we know that, we can't answer the question. Just curious.

 

[kskboys]

I would argue that eagles didn't hit it big with Hurts. Hurts can't carry the team and that was obvious in 2023. he needs a strong supporting cast. but he has shown he is capable of getting the team over the top when given those resources. you can many other QBs on the eagles and they see the same success. they have top 3 WR group. one of the top 5 TEs. the best OL in the league. a 2000 yard back. a top 3 defense. and the tush push, which makes every series into a 1st and 9 essentially.

and to your point, that's a very sobering list of QBs. which only goes to show that you have to take a QB on day 1, high in the draft or you have better odds buying a lottery ticket.

Agree. The super bowl winning QB is always overrated the following season. They did the same thing w/ Eli until his incessant mediocre play brought his rating back down to reality.

 

[kskboys]

Just my take, but I'm now convinced this applies to EVERY NFL QB. Obviously, some QBs need a stronger supporting cast than others but the Chiefs lost to the Eagles convinced me EVEN Mahomes ( with the league's best HC and OC ) can't do it alone.

The Eagles won because they are a juggernaut, a completely superior team. That loss had zero to do w/ Mahomes.

 

[daveferr33]

What happened in the 3rd and 4th round since 2016? Other than Dak and Purdy, nothing but JAG's and players out of the league. 50 QB's, two starters.

Dak is a JAG.

I think Purdy is being / will be exposed as one.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

The Eagles won because they are a juggernaut, a completely superior team. That loss had zero to do w/ Mahomes.

Not blaming Mahomes at all.......The Eagles' D exposed the lack of talent around him.

 

[FoxF]

A lot of 1st rounders fail too, and the jury is still out on Hendon Hooker.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

The Eagles won because they are a juggernaut, a completely superior team. That loss had zero to do w/ Mahomes.

It had everything to Mahomes, not his ability but the talent around him wasn't good enough. He carries the team on his shoulders with an average supporting cast. That's good enough to win regular-season games and early playoff rounds.......he's THAT GOOD. But the Eagles exposed how that average talent maxed out. They shut down his only playmaker ( TE ), leaving him with little or no help.

 

[gtb1943]

ten to one in the first rd and twenty to one in the second rd
and like thirty to one after

 

[gtb1943]

It had everything to Mahomes, not his ability but the talent around him wasn't good enough. He carries the team on his shoulders with an average supporting cast. That's good enough to win regular-season games and early playoff rounds.......he's THAT GOOD. But the Eagles exposed how that average talent maxed out. They shut down his only playmaker ( TE ), leaving him with little or no help.

and a O line that could not protect him

 

[jazzcat22]

Joe Milton will be the 1st 6th pick since Tom Brady to win a SB.

 

[kskboys]

Not blaming Mahomes at all.......The Eagles' D exposed the lack of talent around him.

I think the Eagles D exposed how good they are.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Just my take, but I'm now convinced this applies to EVERY NFL QB. Obviously, some QBs need a stronger supporting cast than others but the Chiefs lost to the Eagles convinced me EVEN Mahomes ( with the league's best HC and OC ) can't do it alone.

I agree. people often throw around terms like a QB carrying a team. no one player can. but as you said, how strong of a supporting cast do you need and are you able to do it once you have that. like you said, some like Mahomes need less than others.

 

[StarOfGlory]

I'm confused. The title of the thread is "What are the real world chances of finding a QB after round one?" and all that is provided in the OP are just the day 2 picks since 2016.

Any notable day 3 picks? Until we know that, we can't answer the question. Just curious.

I posted "What happened in the 3rd and 4th round since 2016? Other than Dak and Purdy, nothing but JAG's and players out of the league. 50 QB's, two starters." Gotta read the entire post BD!

I didn't include the last few rounds from 2016 to now because hardly anyone made it recently. Fitzpatrick was a 7th rounder (2005) and Tyrod Taylor a 6th (2011), but that's about it.

 

[StarOfGlory]

I would argue that eagles didn't hit it big with Hurts. Hurts can't carry the team and that was obvious in 2023. he needs a strong supporting cast. but he has shown he is capable of getting the team over the top when given those resources. you can many other QBs on the eagles and they see the same success. they have top 3 WR group. one of the top 5 TEs. the best OL in the league. a 2000 yard back. a top 3 defense. and the tush push, which makes every series into a 1st and 9 essentially.

and to your point, that's a very sobering list of QBs. which only goes to show that you have to take a QB on day 1, high in the draft or you have better odds buying a lottery ticket.

The argument people make against Hurts is the same crap we heard about Troy back in our superteam days.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

I think the Eagles D exposed how good they are.

This is true, but hell, K, other than Kelche (ms ), I struggle to name one legit offensive player for the Chiefs who would start on another team.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Mahomes ain’t the one to do this with.

He’s 2-1 in Super Bowls with no WRs or run game.

Many thought once Hill left Mahomes would be exposed. Spoiler: he wasn’t.

Mahomes is truly a generational talent. just getting to three straight superbowls means you are picking at the end of each round and losing FAs like Hill and its much harder. as Hawkeye said, some need less than others. with that said, he did have Kelce. in 24, he was the big weapon, but in 22, 23, he had two in the top 30. outside of kelce, because of Mahomes mostly.

this year, the defense saved them as they didn't score over 30 points once (actually scored 30 points only once) and yet went 15-2, the two times they gave up 30 or more during the season, they lost. inclduing losing in superbowl when defense just couldn't stop Philly.

their defense was their saviour this year.