What are the real world chances of finding a QB after round one?

StarOfGlory said:
The argument people make against Hurts is the same crap we heard about Troy back in our superteam days.
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nah. not really. with hurts its been obvious that a strong supporting cast is necessary. when he didn't have that, the team fell apart, like they did in 23.
no one can argue that they don't have the best OL, top 3 WR group, top 5 TE.

of all of Troy's OL men, only one made it to the HOF and the rest never even made the probowl until he and emmitt showed up. his center weight 265 lbs....
 
Hawkeye0202 said:
It had everything to Mahomes, not his ability but the talent around him wasn't good enough. He carries the team on his shoulders with an average supporting cast. That's good enough to win regular-season games and early playoff rounds.......he's THAT GOOD. But the Eagles exposed how that average talent maxed out. They shut down his only playmaker ( TE ), leaving him with little or no help.
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he is truly a generational talent.
 
StarOfGlory said:
The argument people make against Hurts is the same crap we heard about Troy back in our superteam days.
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What gets overlooked by many fans is the toughness of QBs. Their ability to withstand pressure at the highest level and still avoid critical mistakes. Troy Aikman was a master........ice in his veins.
 
Hawkeye0202 said:
This is true, but hell, K, other than Kelche (ms ), I struggle to name one legit offensive player for the Chiefs who would start on another team.
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Xavier Worthy is a #2 on a lot of teams and maybe #1 on a few. That's the only skill position I can think of. Of course he didn't do squat against the Eagles starters.
 
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Hawkeye0202 said:
What gets overlooked by many fans is the toughness of QBs. Their ability to withstand pressure at the highest level and still avoid critical mistakes. Troy Aikman was a master........ice in his veins.
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That's what they say about Hurts. He's been through a lot of crap (pressure) going back to college, but just shakes it off and keeps working. His teammates attest to this. They say nothing fazes him. But that Eagle team was not overcoming those crappy coordinators in 2023 once they were figured out. I think a lot of us here saw that coming. Vic Fangio was a massive upgrade and a true MVP for them.
 
StarOfGlory said:
That's what they say about Hurts. He's been through a lot of crap (pressure) going back to college, but just shakes it off and keeps working. His teammates attest to this. They say nothing fazes him. But that Eagle team was not overcoming those crappy coordinators in 2023 once they were figured out. I think a lot of us here saw that coming. Vic Fangio was a massive upgrade and a true MVP for them.
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You can see that with his body language.......after his first year as a starter, I sensed a certain IT factor with him. I know he's an Eagle, but he's an impressive young man.

https://www.realtor.com/news/celebrity-real-estate/jalen-hurts-lives-in-2k-rental/
 
CowboysFaninHouston said:
Mahomes is truly a generational talent. just getting to three straight superbowls means you are picking at the end of each round and losing FAs like Hill and its much harder. as Hawkeye said, some need less than others. with that said, he did have Kelce. in 24, he was the big weapon, but in 22, 23, he had two in the top 30. outside of kelce, because of Mahomes mostly.

this year, the defense saved them as they didn't score over 30 points once (actually scored 30 points only once) and yet went 15-2, the two times they gave up 30 or more during the season, they lost. inclduing losing in superbowl when defense just couldn't stop Philly.

their defense was their saviour this year.
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The Chiefs defense was great.

Until that crappy (if you’re reading this forum) QB Jalen Hurts dog walked them when it mattered most.
 
CowboysFaninHouston said:
nah. not really. with hurts its been obvious that a strong supporting cast is necessary. when he didn't have that, the team fell apart, like they did in 23.
no one can argue that they don't have the best OL, top 3 WR group, top 5 TE.

of all of Troy's OL men, only one made it to the HOF and the rest never even made the probowl until he and emmitt showed up. his center weight 265 lbs....
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No, really. Once Jimmy left and that talent dried up, Troy didn't put up the big numbers. How many times have we said that Sirianni is a garbage coach and is lucky? That team fell apart in 2023 because the coordinators that replaced Gannon and Stichen were terrible. Their high school schemes were figured out by the 10th game. Eagle defenders were openly ripping the schemes.

OL were lighter across the board in the 90's. Hell, in today's NFL, Kelce never broke 300 pounds but somehow made a HoF career. Nate was making PB's along with Step. Then this Larry Allen guy came along...pretty good player IIRC. We had Jay, Emmitt, and Michael, all PB or AP players. Our defense was beasty. Don't make it sound like Troy had no one besides Emmitt. Hurts walked into a better situation talent-wise, but our coaching was superior. JJ meant a lot to this team.

I love Troy, but I feel that Troy gets disrespected when people bash Hurts. There are too many similarities to ignore.
 
Its all in how you present the stats. For example:

What % of NFL starting QBs enter the league via the draft? High 90s in percentage terms

What % of NFL starting QBs didnt play college football? 0%.

Conclusion: You should draft QBs who played college football!
 
What are the real world chances of getting extremely lucky a third time in a row?

Parcells and Payton, and years of time were here for Romo.

After unsuccessfully landing Paxton Lynch or Connor Cook, Dak fell to the fourth round, and circumstance allowed him to work with pretty much no weaknesses around him on offense.

They eventually asked both to be and do something they weren’t/aren’t.

That’s why Dak was resigned and the agent knew he had them each time. I think the next few years are going to be down ones regardless based on logic, and only THEN will they consider using real capital on the next QB. Who on Jerry’s staff is going to be capable of developing that player?

Still, using a first rounder on a QB guarantees absolutely nothing. You all know the very long list of names, but yeah you’ve gotta try and from the ‘things even out in the long run’ file….the search for the next one could be quite lengthy.
 
Should break down the chance of finding a good QB by round. There are a ton of 1st round busts. I'd hate to be one of this years teams needing a QB.
 
CowboysFaninHouston said:
Mahomes is truly a generational talent. just getting to three straight superbowls means you are picking at the end of each round and losing FAs like Hill and its much harder. as Hawkeye said, some need less than others. with that said, he did have Kelce. in 24, he was the big weapon, but in 22, 23, he had two in the top 30. outside of kelce, because of Mahomes mostly.

this year, the defense saved them as they didn't score over 30 points once (actually scored 30 points only once) and yet went 15-2, the two times they gave up 30 or more during the season, they lost. inclduing losing in superbowl when defense just couldn't stop Philly.

their defense was their saviour this year.
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yeah. but in the SB the Birds D so dominated that the KC D just could not pick up the slack.
 
fivetwos said:
What are the real world chances of getting extremely lucky a third time in a row?

Parcells and Payton, and years of time were here for Romo.

After unsuccessfully landing Paxton Lynch or Connor Cook, Dak fell to the fourth round, and circumstance allowed him to work with pretty much no weaknesses around him on offense.

They eventually asked both to be and do something they weren’t/aren’t.

That’s why Dak was resigned and the agent knew he had them each time. I think the next few years are going to be down ones regardless based on logic, and only THEN will they consider using real capital on the next QB. Who on Jerry’s staff is going to be capable of developing that player?

Still, using a first rounder on a QB guarantees absolutely nothing. You all know the very long list of names, but yeah you’ve gotta try and from the ‘things even out in the long run’ file….the search for the next one could be quite lengthy.
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Warner and Romo were UDFA
Brady was a 6th rd pick


Purdy was a Mr Irrelevant

Bottom line is that they are the outliers. Lottery wins to be blunt

You think about it, our luck with Romo and Dak has made things worse since that convinced Little and Big Enos not to try.
 
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