What are the real world chances of finding a QB after round one?

[75boyz]

Warner and Romo were UDFA
Brady was a 6th rd pick


Purdy was a Mr Irrelevant

Bottom line is that they are the outliers. Lottery wins to be blunt

You think about it, our luck with Romo and Dak has made things worse since that convinced Little and Big Enos not to try.

Truth hurts.

 

[FanofJerry]

Find a serviceable QB then draft high IQ QBs that are undersized or have a questionable arm in later rounds until you hit jackpot.

All late round picks should be high IQ guys, qb or not, since most don't work out. At least pick a player that is high IQ and if he gains weight and muscle might have a good career.

Orlando Scandrick is the ideal player. 5th round pick. Undersized...but mentally tough and high IQ. His IQ and toughness carved him out a good career after he gained weight.

Same philosophy should go towards QB, dont waste 2nd and 3rd round picks on crap shoots...use a 5th or 6th on a player you scouted heavily amd feel could make it but is high IQ and tough.

 

[cowboyec]

riley leonard,notre dame.

 

[Adreme]

Just my take, but I'm now convinced this applies to EVERY NFL QB. Obviously, some QBs need a stronger supporting cast than others but the Chiefs lost to the Eagles convinced me EVEN Mahomes ( with the league's best HC and OC ) can't do it alone.

I mean they made it to the Super Bowl with an offense that was basically 3 great Olinemen and bad everywhere else That is doing a pretty good job carrying.

 

[KingCorcoran]

I would argue that eagles didn't hit it big with Hurts. Hurts can't carry the team and that was obvious in 2023. he needs a strong supporting cast. but he has shown he is capable of getting the team over the top when given those resources. you can many other QBs on the eagles and they see the same success. they have top 3 WR group. one of the top 5 TEs. the best OL in the league. a 2000 yard back. a top 3 defense. and the tush push, which makes every series into a 1st and 9 essentially.

and to your point, that's a very sobering list of QBs. which only goes to show that you have to take a QB on day 1, high in the draft or you have better odds buying a lottery ticket.

When 11 regular season wins and qualifying for the playoffs equals you’re not a very good quarterback and can’t carry your team, you’re a very good quarterback.

Hurts can’t throw like Burrow. He can’t run like Jackson. He can’t physically dominate like Allen. The same can be said of Mahomes. If you want a quarterback that can do lots of things find a Burrow, Jackson, Allen. If you want to win it all, find a quarterback that can do it all. That would be Hurts. The best two games he ever played were Super Bowls. That would not be Burrow, Jackson, Allen.

Cowboys fans desperately want Hurts to be an average quarterback. He isn’t.

 

[gtb1943]

I mean they made it to the Super Bowl with an offense that was basically 3 great Olinemen and bad everywhere else That is doing a pretty good job carrying.

those great O linemen did little in the SB

 

[gtb1943]

riley leonard,notre dame.

I wanted him benched after the loss to Northern Illinois. But he gutted it out and by the time the championship game came, he was a winner. Not all that much physical talent though he is an excellent runner. Tough as old shoe leather.

 

[MonsterD]

My guess something like 3-4%

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

When 11 regular season wins and qualifying for the playoffs equals you’re not a very good quarterback and can’t carry your team, you’re a very good quarterback.

Hurts can’t throw like Burrow. He can’t run like Jackson. He can’t physically dominate like Allen. The same can be said of Mahomes. If you want a quarterback that can do lots of things find a Burrow, Jackson, Allen. If you want to win it all, find a quarterback that can do it all. That would be Hurts. The best two games he ever played were Super Bowls. That would not be Burrow, Jackson, Allen.

Cowboys fans desperately want Hurts to be an average quarterback. He isn’t.

So hurts is better than mahomes? Burrow? And Allan?

Got it

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

yeah. but in the SB the Birds D so dominated that the KC D just could not pick up the slack.

Exactly.

 

[csirl]

QBs with good processing ability and who can play football are always a better bet that the physical specimdn type of QB who excels in combine drills.

When you filter out the "physical specimens" type, the success rate is quite high.

 

[KingCorcoran]

So hurts is better than mahomes? Burrow? And Allan?

Got it

No. He’s a tremendous NFL quarterback and he’s young, signed, and not in the top quartile in pay amongst NFL starting quarterbacks. Want more indignity for the Dallas Cowboys? It looks as if the Commanders have a better quarterback than Jalen Hurts.

The immediate future is not bright for Cowboys fans. Hoping guys on other teams are not as good as they seem is all that’s left for Cowboys fans in the wake Jerry Jones’ poor handling of the Cowboys’ roster.

 

[plasticman]

What are the chances of finding a quarterback that wasn't drafted in the top ten?

Last season 9 quarterbacks were named to the Pro Bowl.

8 were 1st round draft picks

7 were drafted in the top 10.

6 were drafted in the top 3

4 were drafted #1 overall.

18 quarterbacks passed for 3500 or more yards for the 2024 season.

15 were 1st round picks.

For the 4 starting quarterbacks playing in the conference championship games, only Hurts was not a 1st round draft pick. Hurts was drafted in the 2nd round.

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

Many posters would like to start drafting QB's every other year or so. And we should do so. There should always be a healthy competition to keep the position fresh, just like all other positions. A team will probably find a decent backup in a later round, or even get lucky and find a starter. How likely is this scenario?

Here are all the QB's selected on Day Two of the draft since 2016 (Dak's draft year):

Day 2 QB's
2023: Will Levis, Hendon Hooker
2022: Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Matt Corrall
2021: Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Davis Mills
2020: Jalen Hurts
2019: Drew Lock, Will Grier
2018: Mason Rudolph
2017: Desone Kizer, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard
2016: Christian Hackenberg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler

A rather sobering list. The Eagles obviously hit big with Hurts. Every other QB is a JAG, backup or out of the league. Hit rate for starter? 1 out of 18.

What happened in the 3rd and 4th round since 2016? Other than Dak and Purdy, nothing but JAG's and players out of the league. 50 QB's, two starters.

Adding this up, that means since 2016, only three QB's out of 68 drafted after the first round became solid starters: Dak, Purdy, and Hurts. Two have been to a Super Bowl, and only one has won the big game. You might get lucky and find a UDFA (Romo). If you want to include 1999 for UDFA, add Warner.

Going back to 2000, Brady, Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, and Jalen Hurts are the only non-1st round QB's to win a Super Bowl. The 1st rounders that did win are Big Ben, Manning, Rodgers, Flacco, Mahomes, and Stafford.

It's hard to find a QB in this league. If you're not signing a FA or trading for a QB, a team must draft and take their shot probably no less than once every two years.

There will be many QBs after the 1st round.
But with Milton now here, Yoda has signaled that QBs are not in the draft plan.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

No. He’s a tremendous NFL quarterback and he’s young, signed, and not in the top quartile in pay amongst NFL starting quarterbacks. Want more indignity for the Dallas Cowboys? It looks as if the Commanders have a better quarterback than Jalen Hurts.

The immediate future is not bright for Cowboys fans. Hoping guys on other teams are not as good as they seem is all that’s left for Cowboys fans in the wake Jerry Jones’ poor handling of the Cowboys’ roster.

my comments were specifically about Hurts. and now people saying, he is better than mahomes, burrows, jackson and Allen. and for good measure people are throwing in the commanders QB into the discussion.

future hasn't been bright for cowboys for 30 years. that part you got right. as long its under jones' thumb, we are going to continue to suck.

 

[mattjames2010]

This QB class sucks.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

No, really. Once Jimmy left and that talent dried up, Troy didn't put up the big numbers. How many times have we said that Sirianni is a garbage coach and is lucky? That team fell apart in 2023 because the coordinators that replaced Gannon and Stichen were terrible. Their high school schemes were figured out by the 10th game. Eagle defenders were openly ripping the schemes.

OL were lighter across the board in the 90's. Hell, in today's NFL, Kelce never broke 300 pounds but somehow made a HoF career. Nate was making PB's along with Step. Then this Larry Allen guy came along...pretty good player IIRC. We had Jay, Emmitt, and Michael, all PB or AP players. Our defense was beasty. Don't make it sound like Troy had no one besides Emmitt. Hurts walked into a better situation talent-wise, but our coaching was superior. JJ meant a lot to this team.

I love Troy, but I feel that Troy gets disrespected when people bash Hurts. There are too many similarities to ignore.

well the decline really started in Switzer's 3rd year. Aikman, Irvin and Smith willed the cowboys to a superbowl in 95, by ignoring switzer. by the 3rd year there was severe talent depletion. dysfunction and players getting older. the dynasty was in decline and that happens to every dynasty at some point.

and people make up excuses for players they want to keep on the pedastal and find smallest things to complain about when they don't like a player. Hurts showed he is nowhere close to being elite, when the team was 10-1 and they had a couple of injuries, then Hurts couldn't get them over the hump. he needs that strong support. the offense fell apart. the defense fell apart. he fell apart. now its the coordinators fault. now if anyone uses those excuses with Dak, all hell breaks loose around here.

and I agree, OL was lighter in the 90s, but 265!!! he was light even back then. most OL men were 290 and above. including those on the cowboys all of whom except Step were 300+.

we did have good coaching. good culture. good players....we haven't had that in 30 years.

 

[cowboyec]

I wanted him benched after the loss to Northern Illinois. But he gutted it out and by the time the championship game came, he was a winner. Not all that much physical talent though he is an excellent runner. Tough as old shoe leather.

agreed.
it took him and the offense longer than i thought it would to get in synergy.
i think his arm is better than what we saw in southbend.
honestly,until the playoffs...i was disappointed in our receiver group.
to me,his arm looked better at duke.
but he is magic when he pulls it down.
i love the kid.
i'm pullin' for him.

 

[KJJ]

The odds of landing a franchise QB in the first round is less than 50/50.

 

[Bobhaze]

Mahomes ain’t the one to do this with.

He’s 2-1 in Super Bowls with no WRs or run game.

Many thought once Hill left Mahomes would be exposed. Spoiler: he wasn’t.

He’s also 2-1 with a great defense.