It will be interesting to see because Pickens can get loose down field and Dak is not a good bomb ball thrower. Last year when I compared Dak to other QBs on balls thrown more than 30 yards past the LOS, Dak had the worst completion rate, had only completed 2 and one of them was a ridiculous circus catch by Tolbert on a grossly underthrown ball. That will be on my radar for sure.
As long as you keep 2023 on your radar
2023 Deep Passing Performance
In 2023, Prescott ranked fifth among all quarterbacks in expected points added (EPA) on deep passes (throws of 20+ air yards), with a 0.810 EPA and a 48.5% positive EPA rate. He achieved career highs in several deep passing categories:
Passing Yards: 1,085
Touchdowns: 11
First Downs: 36
Big-Time Throws: 27
Passer Rating on Deep Throws: 126.3
Notably, he maintained a low turnover-worthy play rate of 3.7% on these deep attempts.
Accuracy Metrics
Prescott's deep ball accuracy was among the league's best. On throws traveling 15 or more yards through the air, he completed 57% of his passes, ranking fourth in the NFL. Data from FTN Data indicates that no quarterback had a higher rate of catchable passes on such throws than Prescott, and only C.J. Stroud had a lower rate of interception-worthy throws.
Additionally, Prescott's deep ball completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) was +10.3%, the third-highest in the league. This metric reflects his ability to complete passes that are statistically less likely to be caught, highlighting his precision and decision-making.
Comparison to Other Quarterbacks
In the 2023 season, Prescott's deep passing performance placed him among the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. He was one of only two quarterbacks to rank in the top 10 across short, intermediate, and deep passing categories. Specifically, he ranked seventh in deep passing, eighth in intermediate, and ninth in short passing.
Or his whole career
Over his NFL career, Dak Prescott has consistently demonstrated strong deep-ball accuracy, often ranking among the league's top quarterbacks in this area.
Career Deep Passing Performance
2019 Season: Prescott led the NFL in completion percentage above expectation (CPOE) on deep passes (throws of 20+ air yards), with a +13.4% differential. He completed 44.4% of these attempts, surpassing the expected 31%, and achieved a passer rating of 109.7 on such throws.
2018 Season: He completed 46.5% of his deep passes, ranking fifth among quarterbacks that year.
2017–2019 Period: Prescott's adjusted completion percentage on deep throws was 45.9%, slightly higher than Carson Wentz's 44.5%.
2016 Season: In his rookie year, Prescott completed 35% of his deep passes (9-of-26), achieving a passer rating of 120.0 on such throws.
Career Efficiency Metrics
Throughout his career, Prescott has maintained a high passer rating on deep attempts. Among quarterbacks with at least 75 deep attempts since 2015, he ranks fourth in passer rating (115.6), with 11 touchdowns to just two interceptions.
Comparison to Other Quarterbacks
Prescott's deep-ball accuracy and efficiency place him among the league's elite. For instance, in 2019, he outperformed notable deep passers like Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes in completion percentage above expectation on deep throws.
Conclusion
Dak Prescott's deep-ball accuracy has been a consistent strength throughout his career. His ability to exceed expectations on deep throws and maintain a high passer rating underscores his proficiency in this aspect of quarterback play.
But don't let some good ole facts mess with your radar
