The Dak to Pickens combination shows extremely high potential

[MarcusRock]

One of the main reason the “statisticians” use 20+ yards is because the sample size for 30+ is too small to be meaningful. And 20+ yards does include 30+ yards as well.

There are a number of stats using 20+ yards. Some use 20+ air yards, some use 20+ downfield yards which could be 30-40+ air yards on a 20 yard downfield pass.

But if you are going to use an arbitrary number to judge performance on a year to year basis, there has to be a large enough sample size to make the judgement valid. That’s just basic statistics.

I'm looking for the downfield stuff so 20 doesn't cut it for me. Bomb balls are game-changing plays. If you can do that average to well it's a great weapon to have (see Russell Wilson). If not, you're pretty much wasting a down except to hope for PI or something. My sample size has been Dak's career. He just hasn't been successful at those frequent enough to be a threat to a defense that way. He's got a real horse here. Just curious if he's going to manage to push the ball downfield to him.

 

[MarcusRock]

Early in Dak's career...



Later in his career...

I never said he hasn't done it ever. Just not well. Every time he chucks it up, I'm going, "here goes nothing." Here's a few from later in his career. 2 out of 3 are with ZERO pressure. ZERO.

 

[zekecowboy]

GP has a high catch radius which should help immensely. Dak is not a highly accurate qb passer on deep throws. Dak likes wide receivers too have separation and most of the Cowboy receivers are poor at this. My thought is since GP was such a steel (pun intended), get him resigned now.

 

[Runwildboys]

The problem is, Dak will be fighting his inherent instinct to be overly cautious. Best case scenario is he will override that instinct and chuck it, but there will always be a conscious element to that decision making so he will always be a tick late and a yard off.
The bigger the moment, the more pronounced this will be.

Different movie, same ending.

They need to roll Dak out to the right. He seems to not overthink when he throws on the move, and he's most accurate when running to his right, if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Runwildboys]

We'll just ignore the fact that multiple leg injuries slowed Dez down by the time Dak got here. And the fact that Dak's numbers in contested passes have consistently ranked near the top of the league since 2019.

Facts that don't fit the narrative are just so inconvenient.

In 2023, his last full season, Dak threw into tight windows on 22.5 percent of his throws, the highest in the league. And he was the only quarterback over 20 percent.

Kind of weird for a guy that doesn't like to throw a contested ball, isn't it?

Does that start include passes that are contested due to being inaccurate?

 

[KingCorcoran]

GP has a high catch radius which should help immensely. Dak is not a highly accurate qb passer on deep throws. Dak likes wide receivers too have separation and most of the Cowboy receivers are poor at this. My thought is since GP was such a steel (pun intended), get him resigned now.

He isn’t going to re-sign now unless it’s for what CeeDee is being paid. And no matter how good he is he is not going to turn Dak Prescott into a great NFL quarterback. I get overdosing on hopeium in the off season, but let’s not overdo it.

 

[Spottswoode]

I'm looking for the downfield stuff so 20 doesn't cut it for me. Bomb balls are game-changing plays. If you can do that average to well it's a great weapon to have (see Russell Wilson). If not, you're pretty much wasting a down except to hope for PI or something. My sample size has been Dak's career. He just hasn't been successful at those frequent enough to be a threat to a defense that way. He's got a real horse here. Just curious if he's going to manage to push the ball downfield to him.

But 20+ yards includes 30+ yards as well. Why is 30+ the magic number when most everyone says 20+ yards is the measure for deep throws. Is it because Dak’s numbers are actually good on 20+ yards, so it doesn’t fit the desired narrative?

When you use a distance that has a smaller sample size, it is too susceptible to situational bias. Things like down and distance, point in the game, score, etc. can have a much larger influence on the percentages when you have a small sample size.

Truth is even 20+ yards has a lot of situational noise. That is why many are starting to incorporate actual v. expect completion rate to account for situational bias.

 

[dacopacabana]

Lamb and Pickens are an elite top two WR combo.

I’m just hoping that this combo isn’t asking a “Dak pass to win”. Never been comfy when the guy is throwing the ball 40+ times

 

[MarcusRock]

But 20+ yards includes 30+ yards as well. Why is 30+ the magic number when most everyone says 20+ yards is the measure for deep throws. Is it because Dak’s numbers are actually good on 20+ yards, so it doesn’t fit the desired narrative?

When you use a distance that has a smaller sample size, it is too susceptible to situational bias. Things like down and distance, point in the game, score, etc. can have a much larger influence on the percentages when you have a small sample size.

Truth is even 20+ yards has a lot of situational noise. That is why many are starting to incorporate actual v. expect completion rate to account for situational bias.

There's no narrative. I want to see those numbers separated out. Why bunch them in with a 20 air yard pass thrown from 10 yards behind the LOS on 3rd and 15? What did that get you except more room for your punter? Throwing bombs are part of the game and can turn one around in an instant. Don't care about situational stuff: did it get done or didn't it? Raw numbers. That's what I look for and that's what I compile. I get being technical and all but what my eye test told me, my number crunching showed me, at least for one season. But it's been a complaint of mine for years. This ain't no shot in the dark I'm harping on. It's patterns.

 

[America's Cowboy]

I never said he hasn't done it ever. Just not well. Every time he chucks it up, I'm going, "here goes nothing." Here's a few from later in his career. 2 out of 3 are with ZERO pressure. ZERO.

With all due respect...

These are 3 of the most ignorant "long ball" plays you could pick to argue that Dak "can't make deep passes".

On the 1st very deep pass to Brandin Cooks, do you understand how hard it is to try to throw a perfect arcing bomb pass (over 40+ yards in the air) to a short receiver who is being trailed right behind him by a much taller defender? A QB would literally have to throw a moonshot type of throw and pray it lands perfectly. 99% impossible.

On the 2nd deep bomb pass video, how is that on Dak? It clearly was on very slow Tolbert who had no business trying to run a deep post even though he doesn't have the speed to beat deep coverage.

Lastly, on the 3rd video, did you not notice Dak get hit before he was able to step forward and release the deep pass attempt? How can anyone blame that deep pass attempt turned into an interception on the QB? How about getting after the Oline pass protection?

 

[MarcusRock]

With all due respect...

These are 3 of the most ignorant "long ball" plays you could pick to argue that Dak "can't make deep passes".

On the 1st very deep pass to Brandin Cooks, do you understand how hard it is to try to throw a perfect arcing bomb pass (over 40+ yards in the air) to a short receiver who is being trailed right behind him by a much taller defender? A QB would literally have to throw a moonshot type of throw and pray it lands perfectly. 99% impossible.

On the 2nd deep bomb pass video, how is that on Dak? It clearly was on very slow Tolbert who had no business trying to run a deep post even though he doesn't have the speed to beat deep coverage.

Lastly, on the 3rd video, did you not notice Dak get hit before he was able to step forward and release the deep pass attempt? How can anyone blame that deep pass attempts turned into an interception on the QB? How about getting after the Oline pass protection?

As I said, 2 of 3 were with ZERO pressure, so I accounted for the 3rd with pressure. When you have at least 7 yards of clearance to make a throw in the NFL you gotta come away with something. You don't have to be perfect. Freakin' pull the string so your receiver can have a chance at least. The Cooks one is inexcusable. Period. Period. The second, you have to see the defenders and he lofted it too far. If you know your receiver and don't adjust your balls accordingly, what do you expect? The SF one he was pressured but still threw into double coverage. There was no chance there. Throw it out of bounds. These all count. There's no excuse with Pickens on board now. It'll tell us if it was WR personnel or not, although I've noticed this for years and have discussed it with you also.

 

[America's Cowboy]

As I said, 2 of 3 were with ZERO pressure, so I accounted for the 3rd with pressure. When you have at least 7 yards of clearance to make a throw in the NFL you gotta come away with something. You don't have to be perfect. Freakin' pull the string so your receiver can have a chance at least. The Cooks one is inexcusable. Period. Period. The second, you have to see the defenders and he lofted it too far. If you know your receiver and don't adjust your balls accordingly, what do you expect? The SF one he was pressured but still threw into double coverage. There was no chance there. Throw it out of bounds. These all count. There's no excuse with Pickens on board now. It'll tell us if it was WR personnel or not, although I've noticed this for years and have discussed it with you also.

Good solid points.

 

[Spottswoode]

There's no narrative. I want to see those numbers separated out. Why bunch them in with a 20 air yard pass thrown from 10 yards behind the LOS on 3rd and 15? What did that get you except more room for your punter? Throwing bombs are part of the game and can turn one around in an instant. Don't care about situational stuff: did it get done or didn't it? Raw numbers. That's what I look for and that's what I compile. I get being technical and all but what my eye test told me, my number crunching showed me, at least for one season. But it's been a complaint of mine for years. This ain't no shot in the dark I'm harping on. It's patterns.

Can you share your numbers? I’m curious about the other QB’s and where he ranks as well…it would be interesting to see.

Are you judging 1 not even complete season for Dak with a marginal WR2 and not great TE play and extrapolating that for his career to suggest Dak throws a poor deep ball? You said earlier your sample size was his career but now it seems you “crunched numbers” for 1 year.

And I told you why they aren’t separated out. Because the sample size is too small and therefore meaningless. You can argue with statistical analysis but your preferred method would never hold up to any kind of meaningful scrutiny.

 

[MarcusRock]

Can you share your numbers? I’m curious about the other QB’s and where he ranks as well…it would be interesting to see.

Are you judging 1 not even complete season for Dak with a marginal WR2 and not great TE play and extrapolating that for his career to suggest Dak throws a poor deep ball? You said earlier your sample size was his career but now it seems you “crunched numbers” for 1 year.

And I told you why they aren’t separated out. Because the sample size is too small and therefore meaningless. You can argue with statistical analysis but your preferred method would never hold up to any kind of meaningful scrutiny.

I don't have them. I posted them here last year and now I can't find them but I compared Dak to all the top QBs with balls landing 30+ yards from the LOS for %, TDs, INTs. Hurts, Jackson, Goff, Mahomes, Wilson, Carr, Stafford, Allen, Burrow, Purdy, Darnold. Maybe more. Dak had the worst (or 2nd worst) % of all of them. It's the first year I pulled numbers but again, I've noticed for years so I went poking. They showed what they showed. No agenda. If the numbers weren't there I'd have shut up about that claim.

 

[MarcusRock]

Can you share your numbers? I’m curious about the other QB’s and where he ranks as well…it would be interesting to see.

Are you judging 1 not even complete season for Dak with a marginal WR2 and not great TE play and extrapolating that for his career to suggest Dak throws a poor deep ball? You said earlier your sample size was his career but now it seems you “crunched numbers” for 1 year.

And I told you why they aren’t separated out. Because the sample size is too small and therefore meaningless. You can argue with statistical analysis but your preferred method would never hold up to any kind of meaningful scrutiny.

Hey, I found it! I ran it on November 4th in 2024 so I think it was after all his 8 games last year. It was in a thread about air yards and here's my post: https://cowboyszone.com/threads/the-condemning-air-yards-stat.529270/page-4#post-13862206

Here are the stats I pulled for balls landing 30+ yards from the LOS (Russell Wilson had played only 2 games to that point):

Purdy .......... 3/4
Wilson ......... 3/5
Goff .............. 5/9, 3 TDs
Darnold......... 5/9, 2 TDs
Hurts ............ 7/14, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Herbert ........ 3/6, 1 TD
Mahomes ..... 2/4, 1 TD
Rodgers ....... 2/4, 1 TD, 1 INT
Burrow .......... 4/9, 2 TDs
Allen .............. 4/10
Lawrence ...... 3/10, 1 TD, 1 INT
Stafford ......... 3/11, 2 INTs
Jackson ........ 3/12, 1 TD
Dak ............... 2/11, 2 INTs

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Dez's numbers tanked under Dak. Dak doesn't like to throw a contested ball. He needs separation.

Dez’s career was almost on its last legs when Dak here. Cowboys cut him and as you can see he never could return. Dez was past his prime in 2016. He was more physically gifted then most…when that goes your route running or lack there of shows up.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Hey, I found it! I ran it on November 4th in 2024 so I think it was after all his 8 games last year. It was in a thread about air yards and here's my post: https://cowboyszone.com/threads/the-condemning-air-yards-stat.529270/page-4#post-13862206

Here are the stats I pulled for balls landing 30+ yards from the LOS (Russell Wilson had played only 2 games to that point):

Purdy .......... 3/4
Wilson ......... 3/5
Goff .............. 5/9, 3 TDs
Darnold......... 5/9, 2 TDs
Hurts ............ 7/14, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Herbert ........ 3/6, 1 TD
Mahomes ..... 2/4, 1 TD
Rodgers ....... 2/4, 1 TD, 1 INT
Burrow .......... 4/9, 2 TDs
Allen .............. 4/10
Lawrence ...... 3/10, 1 TD, 1 INT
Stafford ......... 3/11, 2 INTs
Jackson ........ 3/12, 1 TD
Dak ............... 2/11, 2 INTs

That was because he sucked last year. That data doesn’t back your claim up.

 

[MarcusRock]

That was because he sucked last year. That data doesn’t back your claim up.

The data is what the data is. Now there's an excuse for why the data isn't the data? As I said, it's been my eye test over the years and the one year I pull data, lo and behold it backs it up. Why is that hard to accept?

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

The data is what the data is. Now there's an excuse for why the data isn't the data? As I said, it's been my eye test over the years and the one year I pull data, lo and behold it backs it up. Why is that hard to accept?

You pulled data from a partial season in which he got hurt. Why not pull data from 2023 to back your claim? And I’m not even saying the data won’t say what you claim because it may. But 2023 is a better representation of what he is. Mind you he struggled the first 7 games there too.

 

[Spottswoode]

I don't have them. I posted them here last year and now I can't find them but I compared Dak to all the top QBs with balls landing 30+ yards from the LOS for %, TDs, INTs. Hurts, Jackson, Goff, Mahomes, Wilson, Carr, Stafford, Allen, Burrow, Purdy, Darnold. Maybe more. Dak had the worst (or 2nd worst) % of all of them. It's the first year I pulled numbers but again, I've noticed for years so I went poking. They showed what they showed. No agenda. If the numbers weren't there I'd have shut up about that claim.

So just to be clear, you checked Dak’s stats for 1 year v other QB’s and concluded he that his deep ball accuracy was poor for his career and your proof is trust me bro?

Since 20+ yards includes 30+ yards as well and it has been shown that he rates pretty high for +20 yards but according to you, he drops to last or 2nd to last for 30+, he must be an absolute beast from 20-29 yards. Otherwise, how could he rate high for 20+ but last or 2nd to last for 30+?

Something seems off on your claim.