The Dak to Pickens combination shows extremely high potential

[Reid1boys]

I know many people in here scoff at Fantasy Football.... but if you play Fantasy, you pay close attention to non cowboys games, unlike many in here. Every Sunday, I have 4 games on my screen at any given time. I watch every team.

Pickens numbers are AVG IMO to what they can be. He has never played for anything other than a below avg 1b since he came into the league. Pitt's offense was pretty mediocre. Dak isnt Mahomes, but be objective. Dak was 2nd in MVP voting 2 years ago for a reason.
Pickens lined up opposite Lamb..... he must be licking his chops.

When is the last time we had 2 premier play making WRs at the same time, IN THEIR PRIME????
I will go out on a limb and predict 1100 plus yards, 75 plus catches and 8 plus TDs for Pickens this year.

I know, I know.... we want to run the ball. Well I want to be 6'3" in stead of 5'10". We do with what we have. We dont have Barry or Emmitt, but we do have Lamb and Pickens. Those 2 guys are gonna get the ball, and get it often.

 

[MarcusRock]

I’m starting to get a little embarrassed for you, so I think I will back out of the discussion and let others decide for themselves. You obviously make a living doing something that doesn’t include math or statistics.

I’ll just leave on one last note. You are trying to make conclusions based on incredibly small sample sizes. The data you share may make you feel warm and fuzzy but anyone with half a brain would laugh at your conclusions based on what you have shared.

Sorry to be a “D” but that’s the reality.

P.s. I don’t believe Mahomes only threw a 30+ pass 4 times last year.

Lol. Yep, when the numbers show what I said they'd show, then comes the exit stage left. Look, I know Dak-backers don't like hearing knocks on the guy but this is a valid one that I conceived from memory and then went looking for the data. And the data backs it up. Inconvenient, I know, but ah well. Even my video proof won't make people concede their erroneous takes around here. Such is life.

You said I only chose 1 year so I got you 4 more, 3 of which show the same. You conceded his 2024 numbers were crappy by making excuses like it was "a poor season with a weak #2 WR and poor TE play." Well, what did 3 of the 4 additional years show you? I could show you 500 attempts and you'd still say it's statistically weak because I didn't use a control group and I left the placebo pills on the counter overnight where they could have picked up illness-fighting properties. Lol.

And you throw out the word embarrassing? All that's left for you at this point is the foot-stamping, hands over the ears while yelling "la, la, la, la, la" to prevent from hearing what you don't want to admit. So yeah, I'd try to exit too in an incredulous huff after getting dished.

 

[Spottswoode]

Lol. Yep, when the numbers show what I said they'd show, then comes the exit stage left. Look, I know Dak-backers don't like hearing knocks on the guy but this is a valid one that I conceived from memory and then went looking for the data. And the data backs it up. Inconvenient, I know, but ah well. Even my video proof won't make people concede their erroneous takes. Such is life.

You said I only chose 1 year so I got you 4 more, 3 of which show the same. You conceded his 2024 numbers were crappy by making excuses like it was "a poor season with a weak #2 WR and poor TE play." Well, what did 3 of the 4 additional years show you? I could show you 500 attempts and you'd still say it's statistically weak because I didn't use a control group and I left the placebo pills on the counter overnight where they could have picked up illness-fighting properties. Lol.

And you throw out the word embarrassing? All that's left for you at this point is the foot-stamping, hands over the ears while yelling "la, la, la, la, la" to prevent from hearing what you don't want to admit. So yeah, I'd try to exit too in an incredulous huff after getting dished.

Not a Dak backer and have never taken a position about him on this site. But I’m happy to continue if you like. I was feeling pity but I don’t have to. Here is what I will give you…you did share data.

I said you chose 1 year because you said you chose 1 year. I also said statistically that year you shared was too small and too open to situational bias to be meaningful anyway. Same holds true for the others.

I am not at all upset with what you have shared. I would be fine if your data is good as I am all about having more insights, regardless of what they show. I do this as part of my living and whether you like it or not, your data is meaningless for what you are trying to prove. And not just for Dak but for every other QB in the NFL.

Again, you pulled the remaining years relatively quickly, so can you please share your source?

 

[Spottswoode]

Lol. Yep, when the numbers show what I said they'd show, then comes the exit stage left. Look, I know Dak-backers don't like hearing knocks on the guy but this is a valid one that I conceived from memory and then went looking for the data. And the data backs it up. Inconvenient, I know, but ah well. Even my video proof won't make people concede their erroneous takes around here. Such is life.

You said I only chose 1 year so I got you 4 more, 3 of which show the same. You conceded his 2024 numbers were crappy by making excuses like it was "a poor season with a weak #2 WR and poor TE play." Well, what did 3 of the 4 additional years show you? I could show you 500 attempts and you'd still say it's statistically weak because I didn't use a control group and I left the placebo pills on the counter overnight where they could have picked up illness-fighting properties. Lol.

And you throw out the word embarrassing? All that's left for you at this point is the foot-stamping, hands over the ears while yelling "la, la, la, la, la" to prevent from hearing what you don't want to admit. So yeah, I'd try to exit too in an incredulous huff after getting dished.

I think the above comment that is in bold sums up what we are dealing with here. Thanks for your honesty.

And you do realize that showing 3 videos as video PROOF is just as silly as your data conclusions, right. Your bias has been showing from the beginning and your conclusions are as silly as your desire to win discussions despite the faulty logic you use.

Just to be clear, maybe your takes on Dak are correct. But you have provided no proof for those takes. It’s all been speculation based on terribly incomplete data sets.

 

[Beaker42]

Oh boy, the haters will not like this.

The more films I see like this, the more I love this trade.
Great job Dallas.

Yep, he’s great at catching under/poorly-thrown balls. Ergo, Dak’s best buddy.

 

[jazzcat22]

Yep, he’s great at catching under/poorly-thrown balls. Ergo, Dak’s best buddy.

Yep, I said in other threads. Pickens will make Dak look better.

 

[Jarntt]

Oh boy, the haters will not like this.

The more films I see like this, the more I love this trade.
Great job Dallas.

It's odd how you feel the need to justify every single comment with an insecure conflict oriented post like that as if anyone who says anything that is less than 100% rah rah cheerleader must be a hater. You do it over and over and over. There are haters (at least half are Eagles fans here IMO) there are blind homer cheerleaders and there are objective fans. It's hard to say between the first two groups who are more annoying as nay Dak thread will show.

You get so upset by anything that isn't saying this team is the greatest thing in the world. Newsflash: we aren't right now. Hopefully we keep building to get there and the way things are going this year, I think we can if the two dopes at the top stay out of the way of the people who know football. On the trade, from what I read 90% of Cowboy fans think Pickens makes them better on the field and most are really happy with the trade. I don't know where you are pulling that from. The trade has been viewed as a coup for Dallas. Ignore the few and focus on the many.

 

[Jarntt]

Nice find. Thanks for posting

One thing to keep in mind if you focus only on YPC. Pickens Completion % on passes thrown his way was 57% last year. I couldn't find any other top WR under 60%. There is always a plus and a minus to stats. Bealey only had a career YPC of a little over 10, but the completion % on passes thrown to him was 71%. That 57% figure needs to get over 62% IMO. Two of three years it has been under 60% and the highest was 61.9%. I expect in our offense and assuming Dak is healthy it will be much higher, maybe 63% plus? But I expect his YPC to go down a little also. Different team, different philosophy, different situation. I also think with Pitt he almost always seemed to catch the ball outside of the numbers which even for a guy who almost always lines up on the outside is a little unusual. I think we will use him much more over the middle of the field and I think he will showcase his ability to Cath the ball when tightly covered here as much as on deep passes and I think the pieces could be in place for us to see a much better offense this year than last. It is going to be a lot of fun to see if with our new OL we are able to run the ball and then have both CeeDee and Pickens for the defense to contend with. If they move that safety into the box we might see a lot of big plays. If they don't we might just show the ability to run over some teams until they are forced to. It all works together and that is why improving the OL and also getting a WR miles better than Tolbert was so important. No defense even cared about Tolbert. They better care about Pickens.

 

[jazzcat22]

It's odd how you feel the need to justify every single comment with an insecure conflict oriented post like that as if anyone who says anything that is less than 100% rah rah cheerleader must be a hater. You do it over and over and over. There are haters (at least half are Eagles fans here IMO) there are blind homer cheerleaders and there are objective fans. It's hard to say between the first two groups who are more annoying as nay Dak thread will show.

You get so upset by anything that isn't saying this team is the greatest thing in the world. Newsflash: we aren't right now. Hopefully we keep building to get there and the way things are going this year, I think we can if the two dopes at the top stay out of the way of the people who know football. On the trade, from what I read 90% of Cowboy fans think Pickens makes them better on the field and most are really happy with the trade. I don't know where you are pulling that from. The trade has been viewed as a coup for Dallas. Ignore the few and focus on the many.

I do not need to justify anything. I can't help it if you can't handle the truth.
I am not upset at all. But if you feel that way, then you do. I do not care.

I do criticize the team if you bother to try to read and understand my posts. But you rather come at me on a personal level.
My statements ar ein general, and not aimed at anyone in particular. Unlike yours.

 

[Jarntt]

I do not need to justify anything. I can't help it if you can't handle the truth.
I am not upset at all. But if you feel that way, then you do. I do not care.

I do criticize the team if you bother to try to read and understand my posts. But you rather come at me on a personal level.
My statements ar ein general, and not aimed at anyone in particular. Unlike yours.

But you do with your passive aggressive posts. You are always the one attacking everyone first with all of your hater comments over and over because something less than glowing might be said and 90% of the time (obviously not always) its accurate or at least partially accurate. Criticizing your team where appropriate doesn't make a person a hater it makes you a sensible fan who cares.

 

[Jarntt]

Dez's numbers tanked under Dak. Dak doesn't like to throw a contested ball. He needs separation.

I don't agree. What makes you say that? I see Dak throw a lot of balls into traffic and constantly to CeeDee and over the middle to various guys. He even forces it to CeeDee in coverage often. I think the issue is more Dak doesn't trust a lot of the other receivers on the team and let's be honest, would you?

 

[jazzcat22]

But you do with your passive aggressive posts. You are always the one attacking everyone first with all of your hater comments over and over because something less than glowing might be said and 90% of the time (obviously not always) its accurate or at least partially accurate. Criticizing your team where appropriate doesn't make a person a hater it makes you a sensible fan who cares.

And once again, still you are wrong.
You choose to ignore what I post, which is the truth. Only to try to argue and come at me. You do not do this to others.
I find it hilarious.

 

[Jarntt]

You really don't see it, do you? That's how psychology operates though.

The thing I'll be watching for is the deep, deep ball. Again, not that "20+ air yards" stuff the statisticians call a "deep" pass, but the bomb balls. Those are game-changing plays that hype the offense and deflate a defense. Unfortunately, Dak is just not good at those. Now that we have a guy who's good at getting down field this will be in the spotlight. Did we just not have the players and that's why? To be continued.

He definitely is not. There is a stat out there saying he leads the league in some way in passer rating on these passes but I think it's likely skewed by a few plays or like you say not true "bombs" that we do see Dak missing on often when guys get behind the defense. But here is what I see as a difference (you are free to disagree). Dak isn't very accurate on deep balls and for Turpin you literally need to put the ball in his hands because he is so small and Cooks is not much different. Who else are our speed guys lately? Pickens is fast, big and also has a big cat radius due to his hands and athletic ability. So if he gets a step or two behind the defense and Dak just gets it in the area I think we will see more of those true go patterns being completed. Plus sometimes as we know it's just the threat of the deep ball that opens up everything else

 

[Jarntt]

This duo could very well free up our TE.

I think we will see a lot of Ferguson seam routes this year. Better running game, Two good WRs. Perfect PAP play as the safeties creep up and/or shade to the two wideouts. I think he was banged up last year and with health I think he is going to be more like what most were expecting coming into last season.

 

[Spottswoode]

He definitely is not. There is a stat out there saying he leads the league in some way in passer rating on these passes but I think it's likely skewed by a few plays or like you say not true "bombs" that we do see Dak missing on often when guys get behind the defense. But here is what I see as a difference (you are free to disagree). Dak isn't very accurate on deep balls and for Turpin you literally need to put the ball in his hands because he is so small and Cooks is not much different. Who else are our speed guys lately? Pickens is fast, big and also has a big cat radius due to his hands and athletic ability. So if he gets a step or two behind the defense and Dak just gets it in the area I think we will see more of those true go patterns being completed. Plus sometimes as we know it's just the threat of the deep ball that opens up everything else

And that sums up the problem with the stats as they were presented. If you are correct that a few plays can skew the results, then you don’t have a large enough sample size to draw a conclusion. That’s why even those stats that are readily available using an expanded criteria are less than ideal. Add more conditions and the results are even less reliable.

And what is a true bomb? The other guy made up a criteria that it needed to be 30+ yards from the LOS only, and only that specific condition could be used to determine accuracy on long passes. But he was unwilling to consider air yards. So if a QB throws a pass from 10 yards behind the LOS and it is touched 25 yards upfield, that doesn’t count because it was only 25 yards, though it was 35 air yards. Add a sideline throw to the above example and it may have been 45 air yards. But somehow that is not an indicator of touch and accuracy.

Somehow in the other person’s mind, the only deep passes that matter are those that meet his specific criteria. And using that criteria, the sample size is cut dramatically. That is not true just for Dak…it’s true for all QB’s.

He said Patrick Mahomes had 4 passes last year that met his criteria. That’s Patrick Mahomes, possibly the best QB in the NFL, will likely be known as one of the best, and has one of the best arms in football. And a QB who played in the SB last year.

Mahomes threw 581 passes last year and evidently only 4 met the criteria for deep balls. Do the math on that. Yet supposedly these specific deep ball types are important to determine QB performance and indicative of team performance. It’s a silly stat to use due to the small sample size, even without the added conditions. But with those conditions added, it becomes borderline embarrassing.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I know, but the data is what it is. So are his numbers closer to the crappy 2024 or the much better 2023?

I mean he only played 8 games in 2024……and he had a bad year. But like I said above he struggled the first 6 games of 2023 and went on to be an All Pro. Hes a slow starter.

 

[baltcowboy]

There is a big difference between a Pickens being covered then let’s say Cooks is covered. Looking at his highlights for last season Pickens appears to be open by at least two steps but Russ seems to either miss the target or throws a moon ball. Russ really has lost his fastball.

 

[MajesticRey]

I think the best Mendoza line of the dynamic is the Cooks trade. With what you paid him each year, was his production worth giving up the 5th rounder and the cap space? Maybe a mediocre trade overall, but you could argue his presence in the offensive system opened up things that weren’t there before. Dak had a big season in 2023; it’s probably not nearly as big without Cooks even if he didn’t contribute substantially to it.

So Dallas with Pickens is very likely better than Dallas without Pickens, regardless of whether he lives up to the draft compensation lost.

This guy gets it.

Why couldn’t you be around instead of nfcefan from back in the day?

 

[MarcusRock]

Not a Dak backer and have never taken a position about him on this site. But I’m happy to continue if you like. I was feeling pity but I don’t have to. Here is what I will give you…you did share data.

I said you chose 1 year because you said you chose 1 year. I also said statistically that year you shared was too small and too open to situational bias to be meaningful anyway. Same holds true for the others.

I am not at all upset with what you have shared. I would be fine if your data is good as I am all about having more insights, regardless of what they show. I do this as part of my living and whether you like it or not, your data is meaningless for what you are trying to prove. And not just for Dak but for every other QB in the NFL.

Again, you pulled the remaining years relatively quickly, so can you please share your source?

Hey, you can have your insights party if you wish. My data answered MY own question of asking what the raw numbers were on this aspect of Dak's game I've observed to be lacking. Someone pointed out it was only 1 year so I provided more years and they more resembled the 1 paltry year than not. If they aren't Harvard thesis level numbers then I guess you'll have to continue to be affected because QBs don't throw 30+ yards past the LOS every single down hence they are lesser numbers. I wanted to know what they were so I got them. They showed what I thought. I'm good. I believe those not happy with what they showed are the ones looking to be anti. So be it.

 

[zekecowboy]

He isn’t going to re-sign now unless it’s for what CeeDee is being paid. And no matter how good he is he is not going to turn Dak Prescott into a great NFL quarterback. I get overdosing on hopeium in the off season, but let’s not overdo it.

I got a lot of hopeium, I figure 5-6 wins for the season. Also, not a big fan of Dallas qb Dak.