Evaluating the thinking of the Cowboys recent trades

[Bobhaze]

Trades in the NFL are much less common than the NBA, MLB AND NHL. The complexities of the NFL salary cap make it much more difficult to make a lot of trades.

In the last three seasons, the Cowboys have made three trades that been interesting to say the least. In two of those trades it remains to be seen how effective they have been for the team’s long term success. I want to look at those trades, the thinking behind them, and if that thinking is going to help the team in the long run.

Here are the last 3 trades we have made:

• 2023 - Acquired QB Trey Lance from the 49ers for a 4th round pick. Lance had two years left in his rookie contract.
• 2024 - Acquired WR Jonathan Mingo and a 7th round pick from the panthers for a 4th round pick. Mingo has two more years on his rookie deal.
• 2025 - Acquired WR George Pickens and a 2027 6th round pick from the stealers in exchange for a 2026 3rd round pick and a 2027 5th round pick. Pickens is in the final year of his rookie contract.

Evaluations of those trades:

• The Lance trade: An absolute train wreck. Did not help the team in the short or long term. Gave up a 2024 4th round pick and ended up playing Lance in one regular season game over two seasons. Even after the 2024 season was lost, the team chose to play Cooper Rush at QB after Dak was hurt and both QBs were gone in 2025. Lance was paid $5.3 million his last year here. Which was only $700k less than what the ravens paid Derrick Henry in 2024. Lance was released last spring.
• The Mingo trade: Still too early…BUT…as it stands right now, we gave up a 4th round pick for a backup WR. Even if he ends up being the 3rd WR, is that a smart use of a 4th round pick? No. In fairness, if Mingo eventually develops into a #2 WR, maybe it can be considered a good trade.
• The Pickens trade: Obviously remains to be seen. Pickens is a real talent and he will certainly help this team NOW. But he’s on the last year of his rookie deal. Do we think we can afford two high paid WRs? Will this FO pony up?

My only problem with the Pickens trade is why make that trade if you aren’t “going for it” this year? If he ends up not re-signing here, he becomes a one year rental in exchange for 3rd and 5th round picks of the future.

We have to hope for the best with Mingo and Pickens. But as we say all the time, “Hope is not a strategy”.

LATE EDITS: (Thanks to @fivetwos for pointing out those two trades I had failed to mention!)

• 2025- Cowboys acquired QB Joe Milton and a 2025 7th round pick from the pats in exchange for a 2025 5th round pick. Too early to tell but I’m not thrilled with giving up a 5th round pick.
• 2025- Cowboys acquired CB Kaiir Elam and a 2025 6th round pick in exchange for a 2025 5th round pick and a 2026 7th round pick. Elam has looked good in TC but we will see of course whe season starts.

 

[CWR]

Trades in the NFL are much less common than the NBA, MLB AND NHL. The complexities of the NFL salary cap make it much more difficult to make a lot of trades.

In the last three seasons, the Cowboys have made three trades that been interesting to say the least. In two of those trades it remains to be seen how effective they have been for the team’s long term success. I want to look at those trades, the thinking behind them, and if that thinking is going to help the team in the long run.

Here are the last 3 trades we have made:

• 2023 - Acquired QB Trey Lance from the 49ers for a 4th round pick. Lance had two years left in his rookie contract.
• 2024 - Acquired WR Jonathan Mingo and a 7th round pick from the panthers for a 4th round pick. Mingo has two more years on his rookie deal.
• 2025 - Acquired WR George Pickens and a 2027 6th round pick from the stealers in exchange for a 2026 3rd round pick and a 2027 5th round pick. Pickens is in the final year of his rookie contract.

Evaluations of those trades:

• The Lance trade: An absolute train wreck. Did not help the team in the short or long term. Gave up a 2024 4th round pick and ended up playing Lance in one regular season game over two seasons. Even after the 2024 season was lost, the team chose to play Cooper Rush at QB after Dak was hurt and both QBs were gone in 2025. Lance was paid $5.3 million his last year here. Which was only $700k less than what the ravens paid Derrick Henry in 2024. Lance was released last spring.
• The Mingo trade: Still too early…BUT…as it stands right now, we gave up a 4th round pick for a backup WR. Even if he ends up being the 3rd WR, is that a smart use of a 4th round pick? No. In fairness, if Mingo eventually develops into a #2 WR, maybe it can be considered a good trade.
• The Pickens trade: Obviously remains to be seen. Pickens is a real talent and he will certainly help this team NOW. But he’s on the last year of his rookie deal. Do we think we can afford two high paid WRs? Will this FO pony up?

My only problem with the Pickens trade is why make that trade if you aren’t “going for it” this year? If he ends up not re-signing here, he becomes a one year rental in exchange for 3rd and 5th round picks of the future.

We have to hope for the best with Mingo and Pickens. But as we say all the time, “Hope is not a strategy”.

Obviously the hope is you re-sign Pickens, but if you don't I'd expect a 4th round compensatory pick.

 

[Majic]

Trades in the NFL are much less common than the NBA, MLB AND NHL. The complexities of the NFL salary cap make it much more difficult to make a lot of trades.

In the last three seasons, the Cowboys have made three trades that been interesting to say the least. In two of those trades it remains to be seen how effective they have been for the team’s long term success. I want to look at those trades, the thinking behind them, and if that thinking is going to help the team in the long run.

Here are the last 3 trades we have made:

• 2023 - Acquired QB Trey Lance from the 49ers for a 4th round pick. Lance had two years left in his rookie contract.
• 2024 - Acquired WR Jonathan Mingo and a 7th round pick from the panthers for a 4th round pick. Mingo has two more years on his rookie deal.
• 2025 - Acquired WR George Pickens and a 2027 6th round pick from the stealers in exchange for a 2026 3rd round pick and a 2027 5th round pick. Pickens is in the final year of his rookie contract.

Evaluations of those trades:

• The Lance trade: An absolute train wreck. Did not help the team in the short or long term. Gave up a 2024 4th round pick and ended up playing Lance in one regular season game over two seasons. Even after the 2024 season was lost, the team chose to play Cooper Rush at QB after Dak was hurt and both QBs were gone in 2025. Lance was paid $5.3 million his last year here. Which was only $700k less than what the ravens paid Derrick Henry in 2024. Lance was released last spring.
• The Mingo trade: Still too early…BUT…as it stands right now, we gave up a 4th round pick for a backup WR. Even if he ends up being the 3rd WR, is that a smart use of a 4th round pick? No. In fairness, if Mingo eventually develops into a #2 WR, maybe it can be considered a good trade.
• The Pickens trade: Obviously remains to be seen. Pickens is a real talent and he will certainly help this team NOW. But he’s on the last year of his rookie deal. Do we think we can afford two high paid WRs? Will this FO pony up?

My only problem with the Pickens trade is why make that trade if you aren’t “going for it” this year? If he ends up not re-signing here, he becomes a one year rental in exchange for 3rd and 5th round picks of the future.

We have to hope for the best with Mingo and Pickens. But as we say all the time, “Hope is not a strategy”.

I argued all 3 trades were a mistake when they were made and my position has not changed as of today. In all 3 cases the Cowboys badly overpaid. In all 3 cases (particularly the first 2) the front office has argued about the high scouting grade that they had on the player, but failing to take into account the body of work. Both Lance and Mingo would have been cut by their respective teams and a 3rd for Pickens on a 1 year deal is crazy.

A shocking waste of draft picks.

 

[Bobhaze]

Obviously the hope is you re-sign Pickens, but if you don't I'd expect a 4th round compensatory pick.

So if that happens, is a 4th round compensatory pick worth losing a 3rd and a 5th?

 

[BotchedLobotomy]

Obviously the hope is you re-sign Pickens, but if you don't I'd expect a 4th round compensatory pick.

That would be a pretty poor one year ROI unless he propels us deep into the playoffs.
Best case scenario is he puts up solid #2 WR stats and in turn we re-sign him to a long term #2 WR contract.
Obviously, it would help the team if he puts up monster numbers this year, but can the Cowboys pay both him and CD #1 WR money?

 

[blueblood70]

I argued all 3 trades were a mistake when they were made and my position has not changed as of today. In all 3 cases the Cowboys badly overpaid. In all 3 cases (particularly the first 2) the front office has argued about the high scouting grade that they had on the player, but failing to take into account the body of work. Both Lance and Mingo would have been cut by their respective teams and a 3rd for Pickens on a 1 year deal is crazy.

A shocking waste of draft picks.

I'd say you're wrong Other teams made worse choices with their draft picks so it's not shocking at all Trey Lance they traded 2 first round picks plus that year's first round pick that's 3 1st round picks to move up and get a guy that was obviously raw and wasn't a first round talent and yet San Francisco seems to be lauded for getting a fork from the Cowboys and we're somehow Bad Jerry bad Jerry no he's looking for a quarterback of the future the other team other teams have risked far more for...

They handle it well no I don't understand why he didn't let Trey Lance finish out the year whether that was Mike Mccarthy or Jerry Jones will never know I believe was Mike Mccarthy trying to save his job but it would have been better for the Cowboys long term to see what Lance had just finishing out the season no matter how he played it it would be a benefit to the Cowboys if he plays bad better draft pick if he plays good then we keep him and then we don't need to make the trade that wasn't brought up here for Milton who's also just a risk they're trying to take to find a future QB, at Worse a very solid backup for years to come maybe the light comes on for him later like Geno Smith.. Or even Sam Darnold..

Have teams like the Jets and the Steelers and the Browns and there's more than that that have been looking for decades for a starting quarterback and you're worried about what we're giving up trying to find our future guy without giving up the same amount of risk you can have your opinion and I don't care how you feel about it I'm telling you you're looking at this the wrong way...

Yes, I'll agree mingo for sure biggest head scratcher why you would give up a 4th round for a guy that probably would have got cut and you could have picked him up in the offseason for free that one I'll give you He wasn't worth anything more than a 5th rounder but really we didn't need him the season was crumbling and it was obvious we weren't going anywhere so yes that trade was bad The worst I think Jerry's ever made.. if it works out he becomes a solid third receiver it still wasn't worth it.... See what you can do in the draft and undrafted holding is probably going to turn out to be a better player long-term....


Pickens thing that's the worst take ever he is not just a one year rental until he is last time Cowboys did this they did it with Amari Cooper they gave up a 1st rounder that saved the season and they turned around and handed him a $22 million a year contract so it's possible they keep him you don't know what's in their heads nobody knows what's in the Jones family head..

Again you're looking at this sideways some teams are looking to make their team good for that year and at worst they'll get a 4th round compulsory pick for him it's a win win we get a player that has Dez Bryant vibes as the number two we needed a solid number two and we got it all you should be worrying about is 2025...IMHO

Sometimes people just have a weird way of perception, you're perceiving this all wrong, like I said Mingo I get that but this other stuff we don't know what's going to happen so you can't judge the Pickens trade until we see how he did this year if we end up because of him getting double digit wins and making the playoffs then it and then even if he leaves we get a compensatory pick that's a win that's all teams are trying to do it's one season at a time we already have our lock at number one at receiver we have some young players that we could hit on so don't worry about beyond this but a comp pick alleviate some of that risk...

Sometimes fans just need to stop looking at the business side of this don't worry about contracts and trades this is about football if these guys help us win football games nothing else matters to me and that's all it should matter but social media the real time notifications too many saturations of this type of platform we're on right now makes people feel like they need to be fully involved with the business side of football and it's ridiculous Maybe it's fantasy football making moves making trades make you feel like you know things but that's just an odd perspective to me let's see how this year turns out and how these players end up..

And if for some strange reason Lance ends up being a very good number two or maybe he ends up being good the Cowboys gave up on him too soon but that's what the Chargers are doing they're giving him a shot if he was so bad had he end up on another team and not in the UFL?

 

[Majic]

That would be a pretty poor one year ROI unless he propels us deep into the playoffs.
Best case scenario is he puts up solid #2 WR stats and in turn we re-sign him to a long term #2 WR contract.
Obviously, it would help the team if he puts up monster numbers this year, but can the Cowboys pay both him and CD #1 WR money?

If he puts up solid #2 WR numbers I suspect he won't be very happy as he believes he is a WR#1. The trade is flawed.

 

[blueblood70]

So if that happens, is a 4th round compensatory pick worth losing a 3rd and a 5th?

YES Absolutely 100 percent because you have to look at it is how much impact does he have this year We're just worried about how football plays out this year If he impacts our team and gives us more wins than we would have had without our clear number 2 we needed a clear number two since Amari Cooper left and Gallup got hurt and just wasn't it this is what we asked for jerry got it all these complaints about the future who cares?

He did what he needed to do and by the way we don't know that he's not gonna sign him we don't know his impact so all this it's also moot and a waste of energy like it usually is I know you're trying to create conversations and debates that's your job but I think everyone's worried about the business side of this and all I care about is how he impacts the team this year if he's so good that another team wants to give him 36 million a year are you really expecting the Cowboys to pay number one money for their number two player?

just the business side i'm not worried about it all... If he has an impact that's positive for my Dallas Cowboys on the field and helps them win an extra game or two this year that they might have that's all that matters right now...

 

[Bobhaze]

That would be a pretty poor one year ROI unless he propels us deep into the playoffs.
Best case scenario is he puts up solid #2 WR stats and in turn we re-sign him to a long term #2 WR contract.
Obviously, it would help the team if he puts up monster numbers this year, but can the Cowboys pay both him and CD #1 WR money?

I agree. What also baffles me about the Pickens trade is why make that trade if you are aren’t “swinging for the fences” this year?

This 2025 team may surprise us by overachieving enough to make the playoffs, but as currently constructed I just can’t see this team as a contender. So why give up future draft capital like that when your team is clearly not on the cusp of “something special”?

I like Pickens’ talent a lot and it was something we needed. But will it result in making this team a contender? No because the defense is not adequate enough as it is currently constructed.

 

[blueblood70]

If he puts up solid #2 WR numbers I suspect he won't be very happy as he believes he is a WR#1. The trade is flawed.

Yeah that's the problem here it's not flawed because none of that's happened and you don't know what's going to happen OK Nostradamus how about we wait and see before he make that kind of statement as if it's set in stone it's uh all that's going to happen...

I mean you would think a guy like T Higgins he plays well enough to be a number one on another team, but he didn't want to leave, I think he's comfortable with the situation he got paid well, but he's not making number one money, that would be the guy on the other side and Jamar Chase but they seem to coexist, just fine...Same with Brown and smith over in shegal land..it CAN happen

 

[KingCorcoran]

If he puts up solid #2 WR numbers I suspect he won't be very happy as he believes he is a WR#1. The trade is flawed.

He’s going to want $30 million per season. And if Jerry can’t get Micah to sign either Pickens or Parsons become a free agent in March. The team can only tag one. Flawed trade has become a very expensive one.

 

[Bobhaze]

YES Absolutely 100 percent because you have to look at it is how much impact does he have this year We're just worried about how football plays out this year If he impacts our team and gives us more wins than we would have had without our clear number 2 we needed a clear number two since Amari Cooper left and Gallup got hurt and just wasn't it this is what we asked for jerry got it all these complaints about the future who cares?

He did what he needed to do and by the way we don't know that he's not gonna sign him we don't know his impact so all this it's also moot and a waste of energy like it usually is I know you're trying to create conversations and debates that's your job but I think everyone's worried about the business side of this and all I care about is how he impacts the team this year if he's so good that another team wants to give him 36 million a year are you really expecting the Cowboys to pay number one money for their number two player?

just the business side i'm not worried about it all... If he has an impact that's positive for my Dallas Cowboys on the field and helps them win an extra game or two this year that they might have that's all that matters right now...

Where I disagree with you Blue is “winning an extra regular season game or two” is not worth renting a guy for a year in exchange for 3rd and 5th round picks. We can certainly agree to disagree.

Secondly. In my view if I had to choose cap space to spend I would rather sign a monster DT in FA than sign a #2 WR to a big deal. If we don’t shore up this defense, we could have the greatest WR room in the NFL and it wouldn’t matter if we can’t stop anybody.

I just believe the Cowboys need to stop believing having a great WR room equals playoff wins. Aren’t playoff wins what we are ultimately after?

 

[chicago JK]

I am willing to give Mingo a year to make a final conclusion, but it really looks bad right now giving up those picks for Lance and Mingo. Potentially just really bad evaluations. Paid top price for both. May have gotten taken advantage of. Suckers?

I like the Pickens trade. Although, what are the odds we are in a contract mess with him next year? I think he needs to be good and resign for that trade to be worth it. Especially for a team who probably isn't a contender this year.

 

[thunderpimp91]

I agree. What also baffles me about the Pickens trade is why make that trade if you are aren’t “swinging for the fences” this year?

This 2025 team may surprise us by overachieving enough to make the playoffs, but as currently constructed I just can’t see this team as a contender. So why give up future draft capital like that when your team is clearly not on the cusp of “something special”?

I like Pickens’ talent a lot and it was something we needed. But will it result in making this team a contender? No because the defense is not adequate enough as it is currently constructed I just.

Yep. I love the Pickens addition, but do worry that we will regret it this time next year. A trade for Pickens is an "all in" type of move, but the Cowboys failed to follow that up with much this offseason.

 

[Majic]

I'd say you're wrong Other teams made worse choices with their draft picks so it's not shocking at all Trey Lance they traded 2 first round picks plus that year's first round pick that's 3 1st round picks to move up and get a guy that was obviously raw and wasn't a first round talent and yet San Francisco seems to be lauded for getting a fork from the Cowboys and we're somehow Bad Jerry bad Jerry no he's looking for a quarterback of the future the other team other teams have risked far more for...

They handle it well no I don't understand why he didn't let Trey Lance finish out the year whether that was Mike Mccarthy or Jerry Jones will never know I believe was Mike Mccarthy trying to save his job but it would have been better for the Cowboys long term to see what Lance had just finishing out the season no matter how he played it it would be a benefit to the Cowboys if he plays bad better draft pick if he plays good then we keep him and then we don't need to make the trade that wasn't brought up here for Milton who's also just a risk they're trying to take to find a future QB, at Worse a very solid backup for years to come maybe the light comes on for him later like Geno Smith.. Or even Sam Darnold..

Have teams like the Jets and the Steelers and the Browns and there's more than that that have been looking for decades for a starting quarterback and you're worried about what we're giving up trying to find our future guy without giving up the same amount of risk you can have your opinion and I don't care how you feel about it I'm telling you you're looking at this the wrong way...

Yes, I'll agree mingo for sure biggest head scratcher why you would give up a 4th round for a guy that probably would have got cut and you could have picked him up in the offseason for free that one I'll give you He wasn't worth anything more than a 5th rounder but really we didn't need him the season was crumbling and it was obvious we weren't going anywhere so yes that trade was bad The worst I think Jerry's ever made.. if it works out he becomes a solid third receiver it still wasn't worth it.... See what you can do in the draft and undrafted holding is probably going to turn out to be a better player long-term....


Pickens thing that's the worst take ever he is not just a one year rental until he is last time Cowboys did this they did it with Amari Cooper they gave up a 1st rounder that saved the season and they turned around and handed him a $22 million a year contract so it's possible they keep him you don't know what's in their heads nobody knows what's in the Jones family head..

Again you're looking at this sideways some teams are looking to make their team good for that year and at worst they'll get a 4th round compulsory pick for him it's a win win we get a player that has Dez Bryant vibes as the number two we needed a solid number two and we got it all you should be worrying about is 2025...IMHO

Sometimes people just have a weird way of perception, you're perceiving this all wrong, like I said Mingo I get that but this other stuff we don't know what's going to happen so you can't judge the Pickens trade until we see how he did this year if we end up because of him getting double digit wins and making the playoffs then it and then even if he leaves we get a compensatory pick that's a win that's all teams are trying to do it's one season at a time we already have our lock at number one at receiver we have some young players that we could hit on so don't worry about beyond this but a comp pick alleviate some of that risk...

Sometimes fans just need to stop looking at the business side of this don't worry about contracts and trades this is about football if these guys help us win football games nothing else matters to me and that's all it should matter but social media the real time notifications too many saturations of this type of platform we're on right now makes people feel like they need to be fully involved with the business side of football and it's ridiculous Maybe it's fantasy football making moves making trades make you feel like you know things but that's just an odd perspective to me let's see how this year turns out and how these players end up..

And if for some strange reason Lance ends up being a very good number two or maybe he ends up being good the Cowboys gave up on him too soon but that's what the Chargers are doing they're giving him a shot if he was so bad had he end up on another team and not in the UFL?

I'm not interested in other teams. With Lance no team was going to give up more than a later day 3 pick based on his work . A reckless gamble by the Cowboys to try and prove 31 other teams wrong. Mingo we agree on. With Pickens the Cowboys have little leverage.

 

[DeaconMoss]

For the life of me I dont understand why this team wont invest draft or trade capital into the DT position. It is singlehandedly the most important position to impact an opposing offense.

 

[Majic]

Yeah that's the problem here it's not flawed because none of that's happened and you don't know what's going to happen OK Nostradamus how about we wait and see before he make that kind of statement as if it's set in stone it's uh all that's going to happen...

I mean you would think a guy like T Higgins he plays well enough to be a number one on another team, but he didn't want to leave, I think he's comfortable with the situation he got paid well, but he's not making number one money, that would be the guy on the other side and Jamar Chase but they seem to coexist, just fine...Same with Brown and smith over in shegal land..it CAN happen

Higgins has been a good citizen with Bengals. Can't say the same with Pickens so far.

 

[fivetwos]

So if that happens, is a 4th round compensatory pick worth losing a 3rd and a 5th?

Someone posted something a few months ago where Pickens wouldn’t be eligible to bring back a comp pick.

I can’t recall who it was and the reasoning but it seemed legit.

 

[Bobhaze]

Yep. I love the Pickens addition, but do worry that we will regret it this time next year. A trade for Pickens is an "all in" type of move, but the Cowboys failed to follow that up with much this offseason.

Exactly. The Pickens trade would have made much more sense if the team made stronger moves to shore up the defense. The Osa Odighizhua signing is good but it is not enough.

Great WRs are nice to have for sure. But without some hogs on D, you are all sizzle and no steak.

 

[fivetwos]

For the life of me I dont understand why this team wont invest draft or trade capital into the DT position. It is singlehandedly the most important position to impact an opposing offense.

It’s also why they don’t beat good teams.

Various super talent evaluators named Jones don’t value the position. They either don’t watch the games or have no clue what they are looking at.