Big Board for Pick 12

[Jarntt]

So for those of you who believe like I do that Downs is the best or at least a top 3ish player in the draft, at what point do you start to think about trading up to get him if he is still there? I just don't see him falling to 12 and especially after Moore tapped out. For me the magic number is around pick 9. If the right team is on the clock and missed out on their guy and looking to move back a couple spots, it could only take a 2027 3rd plus a sweetener to move up.

 

[cnuball21]

Arvell Reese won’t last until 12 . McCoy tore his ACL one year ago . Bailey & Downs falling to 12 , possible .

I wonder about Reese...he is not a full time proven Edge and he is kind of a hybrid LBr that doesnt cover.

Teams might have a little hesitancy.

 

[cnuball21]

So for those of you who believe like I do that Downs is the best or at least a top 3ish player in the draft, at what point do you start to think about trading up to get him if he is still there? I just don't see him falling to 12 and especially after Moore tapped out. For me the magic number is around pick 9. If the right team is on the clock and missed out on their guy and looking to move back a couple spots, it could only take a 2027 3rd plus a sweetener to move up.

With our defense needing just about a complete overhaul you cant trade up.

 

[Jarntt]

With our defense needing just about a complete overhaul you cant trade up.

Do you think Downs is a top 3 player in the draft?
Agree we definitely have a lot of spots to upgrade, but I'm not sure next year's 3rd plus another later pick would be stopping our overhaul

 

[cnuball21]

Do you think Downs is a top 3 player in the draft?
Agree we definitely have a lot of spots to upgrade, but I'm not sure next year's 3rd plus another later pick would be stopping our overhaul

He might be the best player in the class...I just do not think we are in a position to give away picks.

We need to be trading back IMO.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

If we had more picks and fewer needs, I could see Jerry making a small trade up for Bailey, just as a (in his mind) Micah replacement. He would love all the buzz that would generate.

But we can't do that already lacking a second and third. This defense needs bodies.

 

[Jarntt]

He might be the best player in the class...I just do not think we are in a position to give away picks.

We need to be trading back IMO.

Fair enough on point 1. Heck no on point 2. We need top end players. You can't make the decisions on trading either way of course until you see how the draft falls that day, but this team needs elite players. If you have a chance to get one you never pass it up (that doesn't mean one we have rated as elite will be there at 12 of course). The passive trade back plan is so opposite of what we need. This team needs to start being aggressive if we are going to turn a corner. Aggressive in free agency, aggressive on the field and aggressive in the draft.

 

[cnuball21]

Fair enough on point 1. Heck no on point 2. We need top end players. You can't make the decisions on trading either way of course until you see how the draft falls that day, but this team needs elite players. If you have a chance to get one you never pass it up (that doesn't mean one we have rated as elite will be there at 12 of course). The passive trade back plan is so opposite of what we need. This team needs to start being aggressive if we are going to turn a corner. Aggressive in free agency, aggressive on the field and aggressive in the draft.

I am all about being aggressive but this defense is not 1 elite player from being good.

We potentially need 6 starter caliber players.

Trading up is for teams that are championship caliber and feel they are close. We are not close.

 

[visionary]

So for those of you who believe like I do that Downs is the best or at least a top 3ish player in the draft, at what point do you start to think about trading up to get him if he is still there? I just don't see him falling to 12 and especially after Moore tapped out. For me the magic number is around pick 9. If the right team is on the clock and missed out on their guy and looking to move back a couple spots, it could only take a 2027 3rd plus a sweetener to move up.

Never and i mean absolutely NEVER trade up into the top 10 from outside the top 10 for anyone except franchise QB, franchise LT or game changing DL

Certainly never for a safety

 

[Jarntt]

I am all about being aggressive but this defense is not 1 elite player from being good.

We potentially need 6 starter caliber players.

Trading up is for teams that are championship caliber and feel they are close. We are not close.

Trading up to 9 in no way whatsoever impacts that or puts us in the "1 elite player only" category. We still have free agency (I hope) and pick #20.

I think that is way overthinking this. Trading up is simply for teams that see more value in a player available via trade up than what is expected to be available with their pick. It has almost nothing to do with being close or not. You draft a player for 5 years minimum, not for just next year.

 

[Jarntt]

Never and i mean absolutely NEVER trade up into the top 10 from outside the top 10 for anyone except franchise QB, franchise LT or game changing DL

Certainly never for a safety

That makes no sense at all. Using "Never" in your scenarios is usually a horrible take. It's also pretending all trade ups are equal. A trade up of 2 of 3 spots is in no way whatsoever comparable to a trade up of 10 or 20 spots. I never understood why people come up with these preconceived general ideas when the only thing that matters is the specific players on the board at the time of your decision that day vs what you expect if you wait it out vs what you expect if you trade down.

 

[cnuball21]

Trading up to 9 in no way whatsoever impacts that or puts us in the "1 elite player only" category. We still have free agency (I hope) and pick #20.

I think that is way overthinking this. Trading up is simply for teams that see more value in a player available via trade up than what is expected to be available with their pick. It has almost nothing to do with being close or not. You draft a player for 5 years minimum, not for just next year.

How are you moving up to 9? You are likely going to have to give up your 4th which you need to draft another defender.

It has everything to do with being close. Trading up when your defense is one of the worst in NFL history is horrible team building.

 

[cnuball21]

Never and i mean absolutely NEVER trade up into the top 10 from outside the top 10 for anyone except franchise QB, franchise LT or game changing DL

Certainly never for a safety

Yea...trading up traditionally does not work out well and I would almost limit it to QBs only unless a championship caliber team is coming up for a blue chipper.

 

[visionary]

That makes no sense at all. Using "Never" in your scenarios is usually a horrible take. It's also pretending all trade ups are equal. A trade up of 2 of 3 spots is in no way whatsoever comparable to a trade up of 10 or 20 spots. I never understood why people come up with these preconceived general ideas when the only thing that matters is the specific players on the board at the time of your decision that day vs what you expect if you wait it out vs what you expect if you trade down.

You are going on emotion
I am going by NFL history

 

[Jarntt]

How are you moving up to 9? You are likely going to have to give up your 4th which you need to draft another defender.

It has everything to do with being close. Trading up when your defense is one of the worst in NFL history is horrible team building.

As I said next year's 3rd and a sweetener and 100% based on the value they have on the specific player available at 9 or 10 vs the other players that would be available at 12. None of that impacts our ability to build a defense this year if that is your only focus which it seems to be.

On your comment: The generalizations people come up with about the draft are just horrible and so off base. If you trade up 3 spots for an elite player you never will regret it and the assumption is that is what you are doing based on your board if that is what you do. Again, the draft isn't just for next year. You are approaching it as if it is. It's for the next 5 to 10 years. And no two situations are alike. It's only about how that days draft falls on that day. And if you think a 4th rounder is going to make or break our defense look at our recent 4th rounders. It's a crap shoot. Our last 5 years of 4th rounders: Fehoko, Ferguson, Jabril Cox, Josh Ball. One good player and 3 huge misses.

 

[Jarntt]

You are going on emotion
I am going by NFL history

No, you are not going on history at all. You are acting as if all trades are alike. I'm talking about moving up one or two spots for a particular player this year. It's irrelevant whether it's 12 to 10 or 14 to 12 other than the extra capital it requires which is nowhere near as much as moving up from say pick 30 to pick 15. Pretending pick #10 is some magical spot that you don't move up past is a bad generalization. And pretending prior drafts and those players are more than just a correlation is wrong. All that matters is again, the player you are targeting, the cost to move up and camparing that to what is expected if you stay put or move back. If there is a player you love and see as a potential superstar you are moronic to not go get him. The same holds true in the reverse if you have a couple of guys you like about the same. It would be moronic to move up in that were the situation.

 

[cnuball21]

As I said next year's 3rd and a sweetener and 100% based on the value they have on the specific player available at 9 or 10 vs the other players that would be available at 12. None of that impacts our ability to build a defense this year if that is your only focus which it seems to be.

On your comment: The generalizations people come up with about the draft are just horrible and so off base. If you trade up 3 spots for an elite player you never will regret it and the assumption is that is what you are doing based on your board if that is what you do. Again, the draft isn't just for next year. You are approaching it as if it is. It's for the next 5 to 10 years. And no two situations are alike. It's only about how that days draft falls on that day. And if you think a 4th rounder is going to make or break our defense look at our recent 4th rounders. It's a crap shoot. Our last 5 years of 4th rounders: Fehoko, Ferguson, Jabril Cox, Josh Ball. One good player and 3 huge misses.

I am not trying to fix the defense in one offseason...impossible.

We need all the picks from this year, next year and potentially the following year to get it fixed.

And you can cherry pick mid round picks all you want but there are hits and starters all across the league who help there teams.

 

[Jarntt]

I am not trying to fix the defense in one offseason...impossible.

We need all the picks from this year, next year and potentially the following year to get it fixed.

And you can cherry pick mid round picks all you want but there are hits and starters all across the league who help there teams.

Totally agree (although taking the last 5 years isn't really cherry picking). And there are studs that put defenses over the top all over the league as well. Look at it this way, how many great senses don't have at least one great player?

 

[cnuball21]

Totally agree (although taking the last 5 years isn't really cherry picking). And there are studs that put defenses over the top all over the league as well. Look at it this way, how many great senses don't have at least one great player?

When is the last time a team traded up for 1 player that put a defense over the top?

Yes - great defenses have great players. Not just 1...multiple and role players.

 

[Jarntt]

When is the last time a team traded up for 1 player that put a defense over the top?

Yes - great defenses have great players. Not just 1...multiple and role players.

How they got the player is totally irrelevant. The great player making a huge difference is what is important. And while the draft can be a crap shoot, you pay your scouts to make the decisions about who the great players are and then you make decisions on acquiring those players to the best of your ability. The point is picking at 12 is only smart if it is the best choice at that particular time. Trading up, trading down, whatever. You make the best decision and need to be aggressive and not passive.

Trade-ups: Look at just the Eagles over the past 3 years, who have built one of the better defenses in the league. Three years ago they traded up for Jalen Carter and two years ago they traded up for DeJean. Both have made an All Pro team and were huge for improving their team and both will likely reap benefits for a decade. It's all about what is best to make your team better. Whether that is from the 32nd defense to the 20th or the 20th to the 10th is irrelevant. You just do what you can to get better. With a top 20 defense the Cowboys were a playoff team for sure and with a top 15 defense they are a contender if they keep the offense together. They don't need to be a top 5 defense to be a contender.