Image: QB Records When the Defense Allows 21+ Points

[Whyjerry]

Some interesting stats on here

I’m starting to think this Mahomes kid is pretty good

Yeah he turned out ok for a smallish QB with a non conventional delivery.

Dude is a baller!!!

 

[xwalker]

Yep, this chart shows why cowboys typically have lost to great Qb's on other teams, Our boy Dak just isn't as good when we need him most.. I love Dak, but facts are facts..

He is top 9 on that chart out of 39 QBs...

 

[Yobwocs]

The tampa / san fran playoff sequence is dallas cowboys in a nutshell.

I think one thing not mentioned enough is McCarthys coaching.

He leaves all his nuts to play possessed to win a wildcard game and has nothing leftover the following week.

If I were him, I'd be thinking of next week and do just enough to get by the Bucs. Because I didn't think we needed to play that perfectly against them. We couldve done a ton of stupid things and left a lot of things on the table that game and still got past them. We were just better.

The more important game was the following week and McCarthy just didn't have the right mindset.

Just putting this out there.

 

[Patrick]

So this chart counts a 21-17 loss the same as a 40-37 loss? Those are two vastly different endings.

I'd love to see the average points for/points against in these games. Even though he was injured last season I feel like Joe Burrow would look a lot better if you could see the numbers he was putting up and what his defense was giving up. I'd love to see Herbert's as well.

 

[OGSixshooter]

I actually don’t care about the stats. Just here for the laughs from both sides of the extremes.

If you look at the chart, Dak is grossly overpaid. He himself admits the offense is stacked "GOTI"

 

[DarkVader33]

If you look at the chart, Dak is grossly overpaid. He himself admits the offense is stacked "GOTI"

That’s one thing we can both agree on. I wouldn’t say grossly but he is overpaid.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

If were to take this seriously, it’s mind blowing how little respect Brock Purdy gets. Brought his team deep in the playoffs as a 7th round rookie, brought them to the Super Bowl the next year, and has been winning games despite the defense falling apart ever since.

 

[stilltheguru]

Needs more context

 

[nate dizzle]

It's almost like some of these teams (eagles) consistently have defenses that can give their offense the ball back

2021: 9-8 Ranked 10th in yards allowed, lost in Wild Card

2022: 14-3 Ranked 2nd in yards allowed, Super Bowl Appearance

2023: 11-6 Ranked 26th in yards allowed, lost in Wild Card

2024: 14-3 Ranked 1st in yards allowed, Super Bowl Champions

2025: 11-6 Ranked 13th in yards allowed, lost in Wild Card

I wonder what Dallas' defense has ranked since Dak?

Btw I really don't care except for the idea that a qb is the only reason you win or lose if defense gives up 21

Not sure. But I'd start your search wherever you pulled the Eagles data from.

 

[GINeric]

Oh no!!! How dare you mention facts? It's the offseason and you might huwt someone's feewings.

https://www.google.com/search?ie=UT...s+did+the+Cowboys+bad+defense+set+last+season

There's nothing like good ol' solid facts!! The Cowboys defense surrendered 511 points last season.... thats the most in Dallas Cowboys history.

The NFL record for points surrendered was set at 534 by the Carolina Panthers in 2024.

I'd be interested to see the quarterback records when their team has a historically, record breaking defense on the negative side.

 

[GINeric]

Only in your mind. The rest of us know better

What is Herbert better than Dak at, other than arm strength?

 

[Havic]

The surprise to me is Jalen Hurts. I would not think Philly's percentage would be that high when it gives up 21 points or more. Guess a well-built team can get it done better than a poorly built team, with the QB not being the deciding factor. I mean, I consider Burrow a top-five QB talentwise, but he's 12th on the list. Stafford's record reflects how poor those teams in Detroit were.

They had the best O-line in the league for a few years, not so much anymore, that metric will come down for him

 

[diamonddelts]

What has Herbert done that Dak hasn’t?

Stayed out of a court room. No babies out of wedlock. Keeps dogs from harming others.

 

[GINeric]

I guess if you're someone who gets more pumped by stats rather than rings, stats are your Mount Everest.

Im glad that you stated this. So according to this statement alone, Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer and Nick Foles are better quarterbacks than Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Allen other quarterbacks without rings correct?

I absolutely agree with you, lets toss the stats out and count up the rings. According to your logic, everything i posted above is spot on, right?

 

[GINeric]

Nothing. They're basically the same QB who fails in the playoffs. But the person who brought it up thinks Dak is elite compared to Herbert.

Herbert hasn't even won a playoff game yet, so he shouldn't be mentioned in the same conversations with quarterbacks who won playoff games before.... just like Dak and other quarterbacks who haven't won a Superbowl shouldn't be in the same conversations with quarterbacks who have.

 

[jblaze2004]

I prompted Gemini to include DBL games and overall defensive support index.
The standardized Quarterback Defensive-Independent Rating (QDIR) model is applied uniformly across all 32 active starting quarterbacks. Every player's career dataset is evaluated using identical variables, scaling parameters, and weighting factors.

Standardized QDIR Equation & Component Definitions​

$$\text{QDIR} = \text{Base EPA/Play} + \left[ \Delta \text{Win\%} \times \left( \frac{\text{PA} - \text{League Avg PA}}{\sigma_{\text{PA}}} \right) \right] - \left( \text{Turnover Margin} \times 0.05 \right) + \text{DBL Bonus}$$

• Base EPA/Play: The quarterback's career average Expected Points Added per dropback/play, measuring pure offensive efficiency.
• Defensive Penalty Multiplier: Adjusts performance based on points allowed ($\text{PA}$). If a QB's defense surrenders more than the league average (~21.5 PPG), the QB receives an efficiency credit. If the defense allows fewer points, the QB's rating is normalized to remove defensive inflation.
• Turnover Margin Adjustment: Subtracts credit when a defense consistently gifts short fields via takeaways, and adds credit when a QB must sustain long drives without turnover support.
• Clutch Win Premium ($\Delta \text{Win\%}$): A scaling bonus awarded for winning or maintaining go-ahead drives in high-scoring shootouts ($28+$ and $30+$ points allowed).
• Defensive Blown Lead (DBL) Bonus: A standardized +1.25 multiplier added to a QB's late fourth-quarter go-ahead drive EPA across all games where the defense subsequently surrendered the lead or game on the final drive.

Active 32 Starting Quarterbacks: Comprehensive QDIR Career Rankings​

Rank	Quarterback	Team	Career EPA/Play	Shootout Win % (30+ PA)	Defensive Support Index	DBL Games Adjusted	QDIR Rating
1	Patrick Mahomes	Kansas City Chiefs	+0.27	.385 (10–16)	Neutral / Mid-Tier	3	118.4
2	Josh Allen	Buffalo Bills	+0.24	.350 (7–13)	Top-10 Scoring Def	5	114.2
3	Lamar Jackson	Baltimore Ravens	+0.23	.214 (3–11)	Top-5 Takeaway Def	4	109.8
4	Joe Burrow	Cincinnati Bengals	+0.21	.100 (1–9)	Below Average	3	106.5
5	Jalen Hurts	Philadelphia Eagles	+0.19	.333 (5–10)	Top-10 Overall	2	104.1
6	Dak Prescott	Dallas Cowboys	+0.20	.227 (7–25–1)	Volatile / High Takeaways	7	103.8
7	Justin Herbert	Los Angeles Chargers	+0.18	.176 (3–14)	Bottom-10 Scoring Def	6	101.9
8	Matthew Stafford	Los Angeles Rams	+0.16	.133 (8–52)	Bottom-10 (Detroit Era)	8	99.7
9	Aaron Rodgers	Pittsburgh Steelers	+0.22	.155 (8–46–1)	High Takeaways (GB)	5	98.4
10	Jared Goff	Detroit Lions	+0.15	.269 (7–19)	Volatile / High Scoring PA	3	96.8
11	C.J. Stroud	Houston Texans	+0.17	.200 (1–4)	Neutral	1	95.1
12	Jordan Love	Green Bay Packers	+0.16	.167 (1–5)	Top-12 Scoring Def	1	93.6
13	Brock Purdy	San Francisco 49ers	+0.25	.250 (2–6)	Elite Top-3 Def	1	92.0
14	Kirk Cousins	Las Vegas Raiders	+0.14	.088 (3–31)	Below Average	4	90.3
15	Baker Mayfield	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+0.11	.080 (2–23)	Volatile / High Turnovers	3	88.2
16	Trevor Lawrence	Jacksonville Jaguars	+0.10	.071 (1–13)	Below Average	3	86.5
17	Kyler Murray	Arizona Cardinals	+0.12	.060 (1–15)	Bottom-10 Scoring Def	2	85.1
18	Tua Tagovailoa	Miami Dolphins	+0.15	.000 (0–11)	Top-10 Takeaways	2	84.0
19	Sam Darnold	Seattle Seahawks	+0.06	.286 (2–5)	Top-5 Overall (2025)	1	82.4
20	Geno Smith	New York Jets	+0.09	.063 (1–15)	Average	2	81.7
21	Caleb Williams	Chicago Bears	+0.08	.000 (0–3)	Top-10 Takeaways	1	79.5
22	Jayden Daniels	Washington Commanders	+0.11	.000 (0–2)	Below Average	1	78.9
23	Bo Nix	Denver Broncos	+0.07	.000 (0–2)	Top-10 Defense	0	76.2
24	Drake Maye	New England Patriots	+0.04	.000 (0–3)	Bottom-5 Support	1	74.0
25	Deshaun Watson	Cleveland Browns	+0.05	.055 (1–17)	Elite Def (Cleveland)	2	71.8
26	Bryce Young	Carolina Panthers	-0.02	.000 (0–5)	Bottom-5 Support	2	68.3
27	Malik Willis	Miami Dolphins	+0.02	.000 (0–1)	Neutral	0	66.1
28	Tyler Shough	New Orleans Saints	+0.01	.000 (0–1)	Neutral	0	64.5
29	Jacoby Brissett	Arizona Cardinals	+0.01	.000 (0–6)	Below Average	1	63.8
30	Cam Ward	Tennessee Titans	0.00	.000 (0–0)	Rookie Baseline	0	50.0
31	Jaxson Dart	New York Giants	0.00	.000 (0–0)	Rookie Baseline	0	50.0
32	Shedeur Sanders	Cleveland Browns	0.00	.000 (0–0)	Rookie Baseline	0	50.0

 

[DoctorChicken]

Stayed out of a court room. No babies out of wedlock. Keeps dogs from harming others.

On the field?

Babies out of wedlock? What year is this, 1450?

 

[zrinkill]

Yup ...... 9 is about right

 

[McKDaddy]

What has Herbert done that Dak hasn’t?

Thrown for the most yards ever in first 16 games. 65.4 comp % & 97.3 rating.

Overall he's had the most prolific start to his career in NFL history. More rushing yards to in the first 6 seasons.

He's widely considered to be an elite talent.

Those are the things HE's done that Dak hasn't.

 

[DallasInDC]

You're reading your own bias or projected thoughts into what I said. It was not about criticizing any player, but simply looking at the end results.

Of course good defenses make average quarterbacks look great and bad defenses make good quarterbacks look bad.

In this case though, looking at the quarterbacks in the top 10 you realize most of those are the ones winning in the playoffs and the ones below are mostly (there are exceptions) the quarterbacks that do not.

This is one stat that seems to divide the bulk of those quarterbacks accurately.

No bias, I didn't really pay attention to who was where. As soon as I saw the graphic, it struck me as it doesn't mean a lot because it's too broad to draw causation. That's all...don't read too much into it.