Two stats that say it all

[Bobhaze]

So far in the second year of Brian Schottenheimer’s tenure, his overall record in 22 games as HC is 9-12-1. Obviously a lot more football to go this season and the NFC Least is shaping up to be a race for mediocrity, and we are just a game back. Plenty of time to get up off the mat.

There are two stats I ran across however that I think sums up what this team is most challenged with:
STAT ONE (Involving scoring)

• When Cowboys score less than 30 points, Schotty’s record is 1-10.
• When the Cowboys score 30 or more, Schotty’s record is 8-2-1.
• The NFL avg for pts per game for teams is 23.

STAT TWO (offensive possessions)

• Through 5 games, the Cowboys have the least number of offensive possessions with 45, or 9 possessions per game. League avg is 10.4 per game. Sea leads the league with 62 possessions or 12.4 possessions per game.
• When you have to score 30 or more to win, and you don’t get that many possessions in a game, your offense is in a place where it has to score almost every time it has the ball.

Through 22 games under Schotty, we have less than a 10% chance of winning if we score less than 30. Ouch.

The hope for improvement: GETTING TURNOVERS AND SHORT POSSESSIONS FROM OPPONENTS. Turnovers and extra stops from your defense give your offense extra possessions along with some short fields.

Without more TOs from our defense giving our offense more possessions, our offense will have to continue to score 30 or more each week to win.

Hopefully Mike Pettine can help Chris Parker dial up some stops and TOs.

 

[Havic]

This is where coaching and scheme matter in tight games. Shotty statistically cannot perform and think about how inflated this stat is when we are blowing bad teams out.

 

[Coogiguy03]

What did we get ourselves into hiring shotty!!?

 

[sunalsorises]

It's those long drives. Even if the defense gambled a little more and gave up a quick TD, the offense gets the ball back. Right now this bend and keep bending defense is killing the offense.

 

[Bobhaze]

It's those long drives. Even if the defense gambled a little more and gave up a quick TD, the offense gets the ball back. Right now this bend and keep bending defense is killing the offense.

Agreed. Tampa had a clear strategy of dominating TOP, reducing the numberof possessions for the Cowboys.

Dallas held the ball for 20:39 compared to Tampa Bay's 39:21, almost 19 minutes more than the Cowboys. That strategy worked because they had 241 yards rushing.

 

[Aven8]

Agreed. Tampa had a clear strategy of dominating TOP, reducing the numberof possessions for the Cowboys.

Dallas held the ball for 20:39 compared to Tampa Bay's 39:21, almost 19 minutes more than the Cowboys. That strategy worked because they had 241 yards rushing.

Carbon copy to what the Gents did in our first game as well.

 

[MoistMayonnaise]

 

[McKDaddy]

The NFL avg for pts per game for teams is 23.

yes but that is weighed down by crappy offenses. the relevant numbers for a GOTI level offense are much higher. he needs to focus on letting the GOTI eat.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Dallas held the ball for 20:39 compared to Tampa Bay's 39:21, almost 19 minutes more than the Cowboys. That strategy worked because they had 241 yards rushing.

That is not playing winning defensive football.

 

[Jipper]

unfortunatly this defense makes this team very unwatchable at points - it also makes us as fans get extra frustrated with the offense when they dont score bc we know what they need to do to keep us in the game.

The reality is if we had an average defense, this offense would be doing more than enough to have us at 4-1

 

[nate dizzle]

Agreed. Tampa had a clear strategy of dominating TOP, reducing the numberof possessions for the Cowboys.

Dallas held the ball for 20:39 compared to Tampa Bay's 39:21, almost 19 minutes more than the Cowboys. That strategy worked because they had 241 yards rushing.

That strategy worked because our offense got 4 possessions in the 2nd quarter, scored 3 points and held the ball for about 5 minutes. One drive took about 30 seconds off the clock...

 

[Kevinicus]

The math is somewhat misleading by just looking at what the offense scored.

There were actually 10 games the team could have scored less than 30 and still won. And there are more times when they could have scored 30+ and lost.

It just so happens that in many of those games they could have scored less than 30 and still won, they scored 30+. Just because they did score 30+, doesn't mean they needed to.
And it happened there were some games they lost where the offense did not due well and the team would have lost, even at the league average points allowed. As in, they would have won if they scored 30, but they also could have won with 25.

 

[jaybird]

This is where coaching and scheme matter in tight games. Shotty statistically cannot perform and think about how inflated this stat is when we are blowing bad teams out.

Trying to stay positive, but never liked the Schotty hire. Another Jerry puppet. Hoping he proves me wrong

 

[Cowboys5217]

Agreed. Tampa had a clear strategy of dominating TOP, reducing the numberof possessions for the Cowboys.

Dallas held the ball for 20:39 compared to Tampa Bay's 39:21, almost 19 minutes more than the Cowboys. That strategy worked because they had 241 yards rushing.

And Tampa was a team that couldn't run the ball entering the game.

Week 1 vs Cincy: 89 yards rushing and 28:35 ToP
Week 2 vs Browns : 44 yards rushing and 29:22 ToP
Week 3 vs Vikings: 78 yards rushing and 29:03 ToP
Week 4 vs GB: 86 yards rushing and 30:10 ToP
Week 5 vs Dallas: 241 yards rushing and 39:21 ToP

The Cowboys, in their usual clown show fashion, turned a team's weakness into a monstrous strength for one game. They'll go right back to what they usually are when they play anybody other than the Cowboys.

It should also be noted that the Cowboys have not won a game when scoring less than 20 points in almost 8 years. This means that our defense hasn't been reliable in tight games in all that time. The whole culture of the Cowboys is that of a choker.

 

[Bagman]

So far in the second year of Brian Schottenheimer’s tenure, his overall record in 22 games as HC is 9-12-1. Obviously a lot more football to go this season and the NFC Least is shaping up to be a race for mediocrity, and we are just a game back. Plenty of time to get up off the mat.

There are two stats I ran across however that I think sums up what this team is most challenged with:
STAT ONE (Involving scoring)

• When Cowboys score less than 30 points, Schotty’s record is 1-10.
• When the Cowboys score 30 or more, Schotty’s record is 8-2-1.
• The NFL avg for pts per game for teams is 23.

STAT TWO (offensive possessions)

• Through 5 games, the Cowboys have the least number of offensive possessions with 45, or 9 possessions per game. League avg is 10.4 per game. Sea leads the league with 62 possessions or 12.4 possessions per game.
• When you have to score 30 or more to win, and you don’t get that many possessions in a game, your offense is in a place where it has to score almost every time it has the ball.

Through 22 games under Schotty, we have less than a 10% chance of winning if we score less than 30. Ouch.

The hope for improvement: GETTING TURNOVERS AND SHORT POSSESSIONS FROM OPPONENTS. Turnovers and extra stops from your defense give your offense extra possessions along with some short fields.

Without more TOs from our defense giving our offense more possessions, our offense will have to continue to score 30 or more each week to win.

Hopefully Mike Pettine can help Chris Parker dial up some stops and TOs.

This is a very solid indictment of our team. If you've never watched a football game, this explanation would still make sense. We need to score X amount of points to win games and we have a league low amount of opportunities to get it done. Our approach to complimentary football is laughable. We are simply, not a well coached team

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Agreed. Tampa had a clear strategy of dominating TOP, reducing the numberof possessions for the Cowboys.

Dallas held the ball for 20:39 compared to Tampa Bay's 39:21, almost 19 minutes more than the Cowboys. That strategy worked because they had 241 yards rushing.

Are we capable of a strategy of improving our TOP?

 

[Bobhaze]

Are we capable of a strategy of improving our TOP?

Maybe. The running game needs to improve to see that happen.

 

[Cowboys5217]

Are we capable of a strategy of improving our TOP?

Most likely, no. This Tampa game was eerily reminiscent of the terrible Cardinals team last year that laughingly, and easily kicked the Cowboys' butts. It was the only game they won out of like 15, and we made it easy for them, just like the sad sack Bucs last game.

 

[Bobhaze]

The math is somewhat misleading by just looking at what the offense scored.

There were actually 10 games the team could have scored less than 30 and still won. And there are more times when they could have scored 30+ and lost.

It just so happens that in many of those games they could have scored less than 30 and still won, they scored 30+. Just because they did score 30+, doesn't mean they needed to.
And it happened there were some games they lost where the offense did not due well and the team would have lost, even at the league average points allowed. As in, they would have won if they scored 30, but they also could have won with 25.

Regarding the math in games we’ve won…ok. There were certainly games where 28 or 25 would have won.

But that still doesn’t change the stat that shows in the Schotty era so far, we are 1-10 in games we don’t score 30 or more.

 

[Cowboys5217]

Regarding the math in games we’ve won…ok. There were certainly games where 28 or 25 would have won.

But that still doesn’t change the stat that shows in the Schotty era so far, we are 1-10 in games we don’t score 30 or more.

A common fallacy is to argue "what if" vs "what is".