How early would you draft Aaron Lynch?

[jday]

I can't speak to his love for the game, not sure who can unless you played with him or spent a significant amount of time with the guy. He doesn't look like a guy who gives half effort though from what I see, his problem is that he is a bit light in the caboose and needs a little strength.

See response to xwalker above. My question is when you watched him, were you watching a game, game tape, or youtube clips. If the latter, you will be hard pressed to find evidence of a lack of passion. I did watch the youtube highlights myself, and immediately saw the same thing you did. He seems a bit light at this stage in his career, but a lack of mass isn't really that big of an issue. Once in the NFL, whomever he plays with will likely get him on a diet to rectify weight and/or strength issues..

 

[Oh_Canada]

See response to xwalker above. My question is when you watched him, were you watching a game, game tape, or youtube clips. If the latter, you will be hard pressed to find evidence of a lack of passion. I did watch the youtube highlights myself, and immediately saw the same thing you did. He seems a bit light at this stage in his career, but a lack of mass isn't really that big of an issue. Once in the NFL, whomever he plays with will likely get him on a diet to rectify weight and/or strength issues..

I watched his 2013 game against Michigan St on the Breakdown site and compared to a half while with ND in '11 when he was visibly bigger. I think he needs to be around 260-265 in the pros and play end.

 

[jday]

I watched his 2013 game against Michigan St on the Breakdown site and compared to a half while with ND in '11 when he was visibly bigger. I think he needs to be around 260-265 in the pros and play end.

Then you have clearly done more homework than I have so I'd have to defer to you on this debate. That's the trouble with reading your research: You never truly know what research the writer of said article did. For all I know, he could have leaped upon the assessments of someone else, without actually watching him throughout his career. For the purpose of this response, I looked at a few other draft experts and they mention a huge fall off from his freshman year to 2013, in terms of production. He was forced to sit out 2012, not sure why, and dissappointed in 2013. The question is, what happened from 2011 to 2013? They further indicated he came on strong at the close of the season recording 4 sacks over the final 3 games, but suggested he should have stayed for his Senior year where if he had maintained that intensity, he likely would have garnered as high as a 1st round pick. So, after further review, he could be a draft day steal.. They also mentioned some off the field issues, so I'm not sure if he fits the RKG mold Garrett's looking for. They did not elobarate on the issues he had, so I could be wrong.

 

[xwalker]

That last post wast tongue-in-cheek. The problem with youtube analysis is all you are going to see are highlights. But I'll agree with Oh_Canada, he will likely need to put on some mass to take on NFL caliber OT's. Like he inferred, passion is a difficult thing to measure and you certainly are not going to find evidence of said lack on youtube.

There are 6 complete games here: http://draftbreakdown.com/players/aaron-lynch/

He was reported to weigh 270 at ND.

 

[jday]

There are 6 complete games here: http://draftbreakdown.com/players/aaron-lynch/

He was reported to weigh 270 at ND.

Okay, so I looked at the tape you provided and here's what I think: He will need development. It was interesting to note that the opposing team seemed to run away from him alot, but we can't be sure that was because of him. Despite his listed weight, he still looks a bit thin for the NFL. He has a nice explosion upfield and a pretty good punch; I'm not sure either will give NFL caliber OT's probelms, though he seemed to be the best pure pass rusher on S. Florida's line. I also like that he didn't seem to be a one-trick poney. In particular, against UCONN, I saw him use a variety of different techniques to get separation from the OT and get after the ball carrier...but I'm not sure who the OT was, but throughout the day, without help, he was getting manhandled by Lynch. The few times he was doubled, he seemed to give up a little...but as I said before, that's really hard to tell for sure. He likes to guess the snap count and from what I understand that tends to be easier in college; he'll have to be more careful in the pro's. There are times I saw him maintain good gap discipline and other times were he allowed the OT to push him out of the play. He seems more natural at LE than RE, he didn't seem to look comfortable in the role. Again, not certain given the small sample size I saw him play at the position against Cincinatti. I really don't see him starting, but he could contribute in the Nickel as a pass rushing specialist.

 

[xwalker]

Okay, so I looked at the tape you provided and here's what I think: He will need development. It was interesting to note that the opposing team seemed to run away from him alot, but we can't be sure that was because of him. Despite his listed weight, he still looks a bit thin for the NFL. He has a nice explosion upfield and a pretty good punch; I'm not sure either will give NFL caliber OT's probelms, though he seemed to be the best pure pass rusher on S. Florida's line. I also like that he didn't seem to be a one-trick poney. In particular, against UCONN, I saw him use a variety of different techniques to get separation from the OT and get after the ball carrier...but I'm not sure who the OT was, but throughout the day, without help, he was getting manhandled by Lynch. The few times he was doubled, he seemed to give up a little...but as I said before, that's really hard to tell for sure. He likes to guess the snap count and from what I understand that tends to be easier in college; he'll have to be more careful in the pro's. There are times I saw him maintain good gap discipline and other times were he allowed the OT to push him out of the play. He seems more natural at LE than RE, he didn't seem to look comfortable in the role. Again, not certain given the small sample size I saw him play at the position against Cincinatti. I really don't see him starting, but he could contribute in the Nickel as a pass rushing specialist.

Did you watch the 2011 footage?

 

[jday]

Did you watch the 2011 footage?

Nope. I watched all of the 2013 footage, since that is the best representation of what we would be getting now. As I said in my above response, though, I can see there is definite room to grow. I just don't see him being an immediate impact player. He's more of a developmental guy. Having looked at the 2013 footage, I might go up to round 6 for him...unless I already feel good about the work done on the DL in the early rounds and see a higher righted BPA at the time.

 

[jday]

Did you watch the 2011 footage?

Now I'm curious: What is your take on him. I saw in a previous post you mentioned he looked like a 1st round pick in 20011, and, now, you might take him in the fifth. Given the time we have had discussing this, are you still standing by that?

 

[Plankton]

Classic case of physical talent vs mental makeup. And then factor in our need at WDE and the lack of guys capable or playing the position in this draft, I could see us taking the risk on him earlier than expected if we miss out on Barr at 16 and there is a run on edge rushers in the late 1st/early 2nd.

I think I would actually take him in the 4th and hope his head is screwed on right if we haven't gotten a WDE in the 1st 3 rounds.

The guy got worse from his freshman year, and has displayed some real maturity issues. he dropped nearly 30 pounds after his time and ND, and his movement skills did not appreciably improve. I wouldn't touch him at all.

 

[xwalker]

Nope. I watched all of the 2013 footage, since that is the best representation of what we would be getting now. As I said in my above response, though, I can see there is definite room to grow. I just don't see him being an immediate impact player. He's more of a developmental guy. Having looked at the 2013 footage, I might go up to round 6 for him...unless I already feel good about the work done on the DL in the early rounds and see a higher righted BPA at the time.

Normally I wouldn't look at the older footage; however, he was up to about 270 at ND in 2011.

 

[xwalker]

Now I'm curious: What is your take on him. I saw in a previous post you mentioned he looked like a 1st round pick in 20011, and, now, you might take him in the fifth. Given the time we have had discussing this, are you still standing by that?

Yes. I think his physical ability is as good as anybody after the top 3 guys.

 

[RS12]

How early would you draft Aaron Lynch?

Not very.

 

[jday]

Yes. I think his physical ability is as good as anybody after the top 3 guys.

So I'm clear here, are you saying after the Top 3 guys are picked at DE, you could go either way with whose left in terms of DE you pick or are you simply sighting that he is on par in terms of combine numbers?

 

[jday]

Normally I wouldn't look at the older footage; however, he was up to about 270 at ND in 2011.

That at least tells us he has the frame to carry more weight...but I'm not sure it tells us anything beyond that. Did you divine something further from the 2011 footage?

 

[xwalker]

So I'm clear here, are you saying after the Top 3 guys are picked at DE, you could go either way with whose left in terms of DE you pick or are you simply sighting that he is on par in terms of combine numbers?

His talent based on game footage is on par with the DEs not named Clowney, Mack or Barr.

I was not really going by his measurables, however those are really good also:

His 10-yard time is the best:
Aaron Lynch 1.52
Jeremiah Attaochu 1.55
Jadeveon Clowney 1.56
Khalil Mack 1.56
Anthony Barr 1.57
Dee Ford 1.67

His arm length (34") is longer than all of the above expect Clowney (34.5").

 

[xwalker]

That at least tells us he has the frame to carry more weight...but I'm not sure it tells us anything beyond that. Did you divine something further from the 2011 footage?

He was better at the higher weight against a higher level of competition. He looked just as quick/fast at the higher weight.

 

[jday]

His talent based on game footage is on par with the DEs not named Clowney, Mack or Barr.

I was not really going by his measurables, however those are really good also:

His 10-yard time is the best:
Aaron Lynch 1.52
Jeremiah Attaochu 1.55
Jadeveon Clowney 1.56
Khalil Mack 1.56
Anthony Barr 1.57
Dee Ford 1.67

His arm length (34") is longer than all of the above expect Clowney (34.5").

Thank you so much for using in 10-yard time opposed to his 40. I'm not suprised by it, though; you can see his explosion on tape. I am, however, curious about his overall punch. How does he compare in the lift? I ask you because the sites I checked left that blank. Did he skip it?

 

[jday]

He was better at the higher weight against a higher level of competition. He looked just as quick/fast at the higher weight.

Which takes me back to my original projection - he will need development - time to put on some weight and work on his upper body strenth. So the question really is, were do you take a guy in a draft who you know will not be an immediate consistent contributor...who may take 1 to 2 years to develop? And this for a team that really needs help on defense now. For me, that really all depends on what you are able to accomplish in the earlier rounds and who also is available at the time you are considering taking him.

 

[jobberone]

His entire history is a red flag. Not sure how you can't see that.

He committed to ND early saying he grew up a ND fan and that his grandfather was a big ND fan. He then sprinkled some of his grandfather's ashes on ND's field (no joke). Then presto, a few months later, flips to FSU. Then at the last minute decides to not show up at FSU for January enrollment and instead goes to ND. Immediate he apparently started rubbing teammates the wrong way as he was a bit of a complainer and also had a bit of entitlement issues. Has a decent frosh year and then transfers out of ND (apparently not to the dismay of some on the staff who found him to be a handful to coach) to go to USF because he wants to be with his girlfriend, who he marries, then divorces in like 4 months. Finally gets the chance to play at USF and shows little in terms of production, coachability, improvement, etc. As pointed out above, he also had issues with the USF staff at times and when he didn't get his way, pouted.

The guy has a history of indecision, inability to follow through with anything, difficulties in working within the team concept, issues with taking coaching, questionable decision making, immaturity.

That's a long laundry list of issues that he will have to overcome to become a good NFL player. Now I am not saying he can't overcome that stuff, but reality is he's a massive risk on a few fronts......... one, it's a risk he'll get his **** together off the field and upstairs in his head, two, he was pretty mediocre at USF and the only reason people are eyeing him up is because of his reputation coming out of high school, the fact he made a splash as a frosh at ND and good athleticism for his size. Someone mentioned Burfict above but at least Burfict showed himself to be a very good college player at times. Lynch never did other than a few moments at ND. So even if he gets his stuff together mentally, we aren't even sure he can actually play football at a decent level.

He's a 6th or 7th round pick at best IMO.

Thread killer post.

 

[xwalker]

Which takes me back to my original projection - he will need development - time to put on some weight and work on his upper body strenth. So the question really is, were do you take a guy in a draft who you know will not be an immediate consistent contributor...who may take 1 to 2 years to develop? And this for a team that really needs help on defense now. For me, that really all depends on what you are able to accomplish in the earlier rounds and who also is available at the time you are considering taking him.

It's very rare to get an immediate contributor in the 5th round. Teams normally expect an immediate starter in the 1st, a possible immediate starter in the 2nd and a significant contributor in the 3rd. After that, it's the expectations are more for the future or for special teams.

The Cowboys have DEs that should be fine in the base defense (Selvie, Mincey and Crawford). They need a guy that can be a dynamic Nickel pass rusher. In Marinelli's scheme the Nickel pass rushing DE has minimal to learn other than just get to the QB. Being that it's the Nickel, there is not much run defense required. Even in the base defense, Marinelli's didn't require Ware to set the edge against the run. Ware had significantly more run contain responsibility in RR's defense than he had in the Marinelli/Kiffin defense.

Obviously, all pick are dependent on who else is available. If a guy you have rated as a 2nd/3rd rounder is available in the 5th, then you have to take him regardless of the position, IMO.