Strength of Schedule Fallacy

[windjc]

Just to clarify, Dallas doesn't have some easy or fortunate schedule this year. In fact, if you subtract all the current wins (10) and losses (1) and just look at our opponents records (including division opponents counted twice) against other teams the total record currently is

77-79

In fact, Cleveland and San Francisco skew this stat quite a bit because 11 games out of 16 games would be played against teams with a winning overall record against the rest of the league, including 6 games against teams currently headed to the playoffs.

 

[Nova]

I don't think your numbers are correct, unless you're counting the remaining games too.

But yeah it's simple. The SOS criticism to date is dumb.

Of course Dallas has a weaker schedule-- they've dished out 10 losses for their opponents.

That means their opponents are going to appear weaker AND their opponents are going to have a huge boost in their SOS with Dallas on the ledger.

Meaning any league ranking of SOS is going to be heavily skewed because Dallas is good.

 

[HomeBiscuit]

I have this argument in college sports all the time. Especially football. Where 11-1 or 10-2 big5 teams often have a worse sos than the other teams in those conferences. Well of course they do, their sos get penalized for spanking you while yours goes up.

 

[CCBoy]

Just to clarify, Dallas doesn't have some easy or fortunate schedule this year. In fact, if you subtract all the current wins (10) and losses (1) and just look at our opponents records (including division opponents counted twice) against other teams the total record currently is

77-79

In fact, Cleveland and San Francisco skew this stat quite a bit because 11 games out of 16 games would be played against teams with a winning overall record against the rest of the league, including 6 games against teams currently headed to the playoffs.

On a current win/loss basis? How about record strength of teams Dallas has played, based upon this season?

 

[windjc]

On a current win/loss basis? How about record strength of teams Dallas has played, based upon this season?

I am counting all 16 games based on current records. I did not separate into SOS of remaining games.

 

[links18]

Our schedule looks to be pretty darn tough to close out the year. Everyone left is a playoff contender of some sort. Oh well, line 'em up.

 

[crashintonickdm]

Cowboys will roll the Bucs

 

[MileyDancer]

We're still in one of the toughest divisions in football, and the NFC North is always tough. We're just a Damn good team. The hate is real. I love it.

 

[GoJacks]

Just to clarify, Dallas doesn't have some easy or fortunate schedule this year. In fact, if you subtract all the current wins (10) and losses (1) and just look at our opponents records (including division opponents counted twice) against other teams the total record currently is

77-79

In fact, Cleveland and San Francisco skew this stat quite a bit because 11 games out of 16 games would be played against teams with a winning overall record against the rest of the league, including 6 games against teams currently headed to the playoffs.

I was thinking the same thing the other day and was going to figure that out. Unfortunately, I tripped over a whiskey jug and never got around to it.

Thanks for doing the leg work.

 

[SlammedZero]

We're still in one of the toughest divisions in football, and the NFC North is always tough. We're just a Damn good team. The hate is real. I love it.

It really is. I had a guy blantanly tell me yesterday, "The Cowboys look really good this year, but, they're not going to win or make a Super Bowl."

Seriously? Uh, ok, thanks Nastradamus!! Amazing how this team brings out the haters. If they're losing, they suck. If they're winning, well, they're still just not quite good enough. haha I've got so used to it I don't even waste my energy on it anymore. I simply give them a " you never know" answer.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Of the teams we beat are any considered having better than just a punchers chance at making noise in the playoffs?

Except of course for the Giants who beat us?

 

[MileyDancer]

It really is. I had a guy blantanly tell me yesterday, "The Cowboys look really good this year, but, they're not going to win or make a Super Bowl."

Seriously? Uh, ok, thanks Nastradamus!! Amazing how this team brings out the haters. If they're losing, they suck. If they're winning, well, they're still just not quite good enough. haha I've got so used to it I don't even waste my energy on it anymore. I simply give them a " you never know" answer.

Ask him for the lottery numbers since he can predict the future.

 

[DFWJC]

It seems that potential easy to fairly easy targets--TB and Detroit--are better than expected anyway.
That kind of offsets the down years for Green Bay and Cincy.
Plus, the whole division is better now.

 

[erod]

Just to clarify, Dallas doesn't have some easy or fortunate schedule this year. In fact, if you subtract all the current wins (10) and losses (1) and just look at our opponents records (including division opponents counted twice) against other teams the total record currently is

77-79

In fact, Cleveland and San Francisco skew this stat quite a bit because 11 games out of 16 games would be played against teams with a winning overall record against the rest of the league, including 6 games against teams currently headed to the playoffs.

If you just look at the games Dallas has won, those opponents are 37-67-3.

 

[windjc]

If you just look at the games Dallas has won, those opponents are 37-67-3.

Yeah, you pretty much missed the entire point of my post. But thanks for skewing it completely. While you're at it, why don't you just make it 37-77-3, and say that each Dallas victory should count as 2 losses.

 

[JBS]

Of the teams we beat are any considered having better than just a punchers chance at making noise in the playoffs?

Except of course for the Giants who beat us?

Who has a chance to make noise according to you in the nfc?

 

[erod]

Yeah, you pretty much missed the entire point of my post. But thanks for skewing it completely. While you're at it, why don't you just make it 37-77-3, and say that each Dallas victory should count as 2 losses.

Actually, I'd just sum it up that everybody has an easy schedule this year. The NFL, as a whole, is really bad right now. This year's Patriots would be rather pedestrian 5-10 years ago.

 

[windjc]

Actually, I'd just sum it up that everybody has an easy schedule this year. The NFL, as a whole, is really bad right now. This year's Patriots would be rather pedestrian 5-10 years ago.

Meh. Then you are just discounting what Dallas is doing. Maybe, just maybe, our team is better than you give them credit for.

2 years ago we were 12-4 and on our way to 1 of the top 2-3 teams in the league. This year we are better than 2014 in my opinion.

So this idea that everyone is bad - I do not but it.

 

[Kevinicus]

Yeah, you pretty much missed the entire point of my post. But thanks for skewing it completely. While you're at it, why don't you just make it 37-77-3, and say that each Dallas victory should count as 2 losses.

But isn't the SOS argument that you are calling a fallacy based on who Dallas has played, not who they will play?

 

[Wood]

Giants last five games are against playoff contending teams. Commanders play 3 out of 5 final games on road. The only team who has soft schedule rest of way is Vikings. Bottom line: win and nothing else matters.