A Better Look at the Numbers Behind Cowboys QB's

[Yakuza Rich]

One of the worst use of statistical analysis I see is when people try to compare metrics of QB's of one era from QB's of another era.

Romo is often the QB being used. While his numbers are good, it's also come in an era when the league averages are much better than for QB's in the past.

Not only have the rules changed, but schematics, player development and even the actual football has changed to make it easier to throw and throw it more accurately.

Here's a chart showing the LEAGUE AVERAGE QB rating since 1947:

So, what I did was adjust Dallas' main franchise QB's over the years (Meredith, Staubach, D. White and Aikman).

I adjusted their metrics based on the average during the timeframe they played. For Staubach, I based his numbers on his play from 1971 to 1979. He barely played in '69 and '70. For White, I based his numbers on his play from 1980 to 1987.

These were all adjusted in relation to the NFL averages from 2006 to 2014.

Again, Romo's numbers are very good overall. I hear talk about them being HoF numbers and I would have to do some more checking to compare against other QB's.

Obviously, he's not our best QB. Roger was our best QB in franchise history and it's not even close. I would also rank Meredith above him.

With Troy, if you take out his first 2 seasons (1989 he played behind an abysmal team and was a rookie. 1990 he was injured), his stats get closer to Romo's. The problem for Troy is with Emmitt at tailback we just ran the ball into the end zone whenever we could because it was almost a guaranteed TD.

On one hand you can say Romo has clear HoF numbers because his numbers are better than Troy's and Troy is in the HoF. But so are Danny White's and Meredith's are better than Romo's and neither is in the HoF.






YR

 

[sean10mm]

Pro Football Reference.com kind of did this already. They take every stat for every QB for each season and index it to the league average that season. It's in their advanced passing tables. Here is Staubach's:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StauRo00.htm#all_passing_advanced

It's pretty simple to interpret, the league average for each stat each season is indexed to 100, so if a guy got 100 he was dead average, higher is always better. You're 100% right about Staubach, his stats were insane for his era, while Aikman's are good but not really Hall of Fame worthy. Of course Aikman's trump is the 3 rings; stats can only tell you so much after all.

Seasons with Rate+ over 125:

Meredith: 0 seasons
Elway: 0 seasons
Aikman: 1 season
Romo: 1 season
White: 1 season
Montana: 3 seasons
Marino: 3 seasons
Favre: 3 seasons
Rodgers: 3 seaons
Brady: 4 seasons
Unitas: 4 seasons
Peyton Manning: 5 seasons
Staubach: 5 seasons

 

[Idgit]

Romo's a very good player, and a great Cowboy. He's not HoF.

 

[haleyrules]

Romo's a very good player, and a great Cowboy. He's not HoF.

Amen.

 

[HoosierCowboy]

Why leave Romo out of HOF that let in other QBs merely because they played on great teams that won SBs?

 

[Kevinicus]

Romo's a very good player, and a great Cowboy. He's not HoF.

I'll take him every day over Troy (or any of the other guys after him) . I can't really speak for anyone before that since all I've seen are highlights. I'd take him over some other current guys who are considered future HoF players, and some others that are also already in.

 

[Idgit]

I'll take him every day over Troy (or any of the other guys after him) . I can't really speak for anyone before that since all I've seen are highlights. I'd take him over some other current guys who are considered future HoF players, and some others that are also already in.

That may be, but that's not what gets you into the HoF. Right or not, (and I agree with what I think you're implying here that it's not necessarily right), team accomplishments go into HoF voting. Absent team championships, Romo's not getting in. Especially with the few visible examples of him not converting on critical plays in the playoffs (the place holding in SEA and the INT v. NYFG). Note, I don't agree that those examples should hold him back, but they definitely do.

 

[Kevinicus]

That may be, but that's not what gets you into the HoF. Right or not, (and I agree with what I think you're implying here that it's not necessarily right), team accomplishments go into HoF voting. Absent team championships, Romo's not getting in. Especially with the few visible examples of him not converting on critical plays in the playoffs (the place holding in SEA and the INT v. NYFG). Note, I don't agree that those examples should hold him back, but they definitely do.

Yeah, I know he's not getting in without a ring. For me, though, team accomplishment (even SB titles), are pretty much not even a factor.

 

[Idgit]

Yeah, I know he's not getting in without a ring. For me, though, team accomplishment (even SB titles), are pretty much not even a factor.

I agree. Unless a guy totally blows it on the biggest stage and causes the team to lose. But I'm not talking one play, I'm talking a game from hell in the Superbowl. I'd be tempted to hang that on a guy's neck, but that very rarely happens. Tony, for the most part, has played well in big games. The pick in that Giants loss in 2007, for example, was forced by the situation.

 

[robjay04]

Why leave Romo out of HOF that let in other QBs merely because they played on great teams that won SBs?

Other QB's aren't getting in only because they played on great teams that won a SB. Phill Simms isn't in the HOF because he was not an elite QB during his era. I believe that may hold Eli up as well but who knows with him..

It takes both. If Romo was arguably the top QB of his era---he would have been in. As far as Romo's era is concerned; I believe you have to list Peyton, Brady, Rodgers and Brees ahead of him. After that? I would say Big Ben has had a better career. Someone could argue a few other names but I am sure most of us would agree that Romo is at best 5th during his era without any significant league records or a championship game appearence, much less a SB.

If Romo got one SB, I believe he would be seen in a different light. I am firm Dak guy at this moment and I care about this team more than any single player BUT...if the Cowboys are eliminated and Romo gets his ring, wherever it may be, I will be happy that he will finally get the respect he deserves.

 

[sean10mm]

You can get in the hall with huge numbers and no rings (Marino, Fouts, Tarkenton).
You can get in the hall with multiple rings and merely good numbers (Aikman, Elway, Bradshaw)

But Romo has no rings, and his career totals won't sniff the top 10 in yards or touchdowns. The Hall seems to have no interest in efficiency measures, which is where Romo makes his best case for being a top 5 player of his era.

Romo + 1 ring would retroactively change his entire (mostly unfair) career narrative and make him a HOF lock. Maybe not first ballot, but he would get in.

 

[JoeKing]

Other QB's aren't getting in only because they played on great teams that won a SB. Phill Simms isn't in the HOF because he was not an elite QB during his era. I believe that may hold Eli up as well but who knows with him..

It takes both. If Romo was arguably the top QB of his era---he would have been in. As far as Romo's era is concerned; I believe you have to list Peyton, Brady, Rodgers and Brees ahead of him. After that? I would say Big Ben has had a better career. Someone could argue a few other names but I am sure most of us would agree that Romo is at best 5th during his era without any significant league records or a championship game appearence, much less a SB.

If Romo got one SB, I believe he would be seen in a different light. I am firm Dak guy at this moment and I care about this team more than any single player BUT...if the Cowboys are eliminated and Romo gets his ring, wherever it may be, I will be happy that he will finally get the respect he deserves.

Eli's two SB MVPs puts him ahead of Romo on the HoF track.

 

[sean10mm]

Eli is eventually getting in, and it will be entirely because of his postseason performance. Like, 100%.

Adjusting for era he's substantially worse than Aikman was in the regular season, and has only 2 great Super Bowl runs instead of 3, but that will ultimately be enough. He's the only QB to beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl, and he did it twice, and was MVP in both of them. His two Super Bowl runs he threw a total of 15 touchdowns to only 2 picks. He denied the Patriots 19-0.

Adjusting for era he's exactly the same as Jim Plunkett, actually. But I think who Eli beat will give him the edge. The 1980 Eagles and 1983 Commanders were good teams, but not historic juggernauts.

 

[DFWJC]

Eli is eventually getting in, and it will be entirely because of his postseason performance. Like, 100%.

Adjusting for era he's substantially worse than Aikman was in the regular season, and has only 2 great Super Bowl runs instead of 3, but that will ultimately be enough. He's the only QB to beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl, and he did it twice, and was MVP in both of them. His two Super Bowl runs he threw a total of 15 touchdowns to only 2 picks. He denied the Patriots 19-0.

Adjusting for era he's exactly the same as Jim Plunkett, actually. But I think who Eli beat will give him the edge. The 1980 Eagles and 1983 Commanders were good teams, but not historic juggernauts.

Eli is the poster boy for good fortune from his defense....not as much as QBs Johnson, McMahon, or Dilfer...but way up there.
How on earth his defense held that 2007 high-flying Patriots team to 14 points still seems miraculous.
Team sport though.
He denied nobody anything, but he did help his team score a whopping 17 points...which was all they needed with that D.
The Cowboys offense scored more on that D than the Pats did that year in the playoffs.
Again, team game.

Two SB rings, nevertheless.

People forget he (and team) was one and done all of the other 4 years he was in the playoffs.
But that too points at the team....goes both ways.

 

[Sarge]

There aren't many outside of the Cowboys organization that feel Romo is a HOF calibre QB. He was a good QB for us for a good period of time, probably good enough to get in the ROH, but that is the extent of it.

 

[HoosierCowboy]

Other QB's aren't getting in only because they played on great teams that won a SB. Phill Simms isn't in the HOF because he was not an elite QB during his era. I believe that may hold Eli up as well but who knows with him..

It takes both. If Romo was arguably the top QB of his era---he would have been in. As far as Romo's era is concerned; I believe you have to list Peyton, Brady, Rodgers and Brees ahead of him. After that? I would say Big Ben has had a better career. Someone could argue a few other names but I am sure most of us would agree that Romo is at best 5th during his era without any significant league records or a championship game appearence, much less a SB.

If Romo got one SB, I believe he would be seen in a different light. I am firm Dak guy at this moment and I care about this team more than any single player BUT...if the Cowboys are eliminated and Romo gets his ring, wherever it may be, I will be happy that he will finally get the respect he deserves.

Joe Namath and Terry Bradshaw come to mind