Boom or Bust

jday

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In the wake of a disappointing first round experience for yours truly, I feel it is important now that I clarify my position on Leighton Vander Esch. From day one I recognized the potential (both BOOM & bust)…and therein is the rub. I don’t like drafting “potential” in the first round; my preference is known commodities…potential selections are better suited for the third and later; I want for-sure starters in the first two rounds. At the end of the day, I believe drafting for potential (and potential alone) will always be a suckers bet…even if it should somehow payoff in the long run. And make no mistake, if there is in fact a payoff, it most likely will be a year or two down the round.


Now that LVE is a Cowboy, I will absolutely be rooting for him; even if there will be a continued reluctance on my part to fully buy in to what the Cowboys are now trying to sell to the Cowboys faithful (e.g. Brian Urlacher 2.0 – imagine an eye roll deeper than Mariana’s Trench and you’ll have some conception of how I feel about that unfair comparison).


In an effort to be both objective and unbiased, in the following I will break down what I actually like about LVE and rehash why I wasn’t thrilled. In effort to end on a positive note, I will begin with the bad news:


Athlete VS Football Player



About 3 to 5 seasons ago (I can’t rightly remember exactly where my view shifted), I would have been elated with this pick; there was a time I was enamored with athleticism and SPARQ. I would chart all the various 40 times, lifts, jumps, and drill times and select the best athletes as my pet cat regardless of what the player showed on tape, level of competition they faced, and mental makeup.


“America is all about speed, hot nasty bad(explicit) speed!”


~ Eleanor Roosevelt ~


Likely as a result of the unrealistic algorithm that drives the video game Madden Football, speed was the most important attribute in my view. But in real life, as many of us have already learned, a player’s overall speed is counter-balanced by instincts and football IQ. Another way to represent this paradox (as I have done repeatedly over the last few weeks):


Speed – Football IQ/Instincts = Running fast in the wrong direction.


Listening to 105.3 The Fan interview LVE last night, I was encouraged to learn he is no stranger to watching film; before he joined the 8-man football league his school offers, he was so eager to get on the field that he started in their film room. He further stated that practice did not change with his graduation into the college ranks and credits his late junior year accelerated ascension to that habit. If that proves to be true on the same level that Sean Lee studies film, then the Cowboys absolutely knocked that pick out of the ball park. But before you get your hopes up, the interviewer did lead the witness into that answer, so time will tell if that proves to be true. It would not be the first time a newly minted draft pick merely said what he believed the fans wanted to hear.


Killer Instinct



For all the athleticism LVE possesses, that athleticism in my view rarely shows up on tape. Mind you, I’m not talking about his side line to side line speed; he has that in spades. What I’m talking about is Killer Instinct.


If you are anything like me, in the days following the draft, you will be reading and watching every evaluation and game tape you can find on the Cowboys selections. If I may, I would like to help direct your studies a tad bit here: If the evaluator in question you are watching or reading at any point describes Leighton Vander Esch as a “Thumper” stop reading and watching immediately. This person either didn’t actually watch the tape or has no idea what he or she is talking about.


I will be diving further into LVE than what I did previous to what the Cowboys drafted him, but in what I have watched so far, he tackles like a calf-roper. I’ve used this analogy a few times, but if you are unfamiliar with that particular Rodeo event, here’s what that looks like:


OBOUwj.gif



Leighton, from what I saw, doesn’t hit; he wraps up and drags down. For some fans, all you may care about is whether or not he was credited with the tackle. If that’s your only concern, you will love Leighton Vander Esch. He was a tackling machine at Idaho and put up unworldly numbers in his one and only season of starting (91 solo, 50 assist, 8.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks and 2 interceptions). However, my preference are players (such as Rashaan Evans) that hit with bad intentions. To be fair, bad-intention hitters often have the tendency to be overly-aggressive and not wrap up following their hit, which can lead to them launching at empty air, as the ball carrier moves around them. That is a fair criticism of my preference; I’ll accept that.


But I like players that hit and play with that attitude (especially my MLB) because of the galvanizing effect a good solid hit can have on the entire defense. We’ve witnessed what I’m talking about. A better way of probably explaining it would be to call it a Blood-in-the-Water-Hit. It’s that hit that gets the juices of the entire defense going. Of a sudden, you see the other 10 players wanting to get in a good hit on the opposition. And when that happens, the opposition will start to wilt and second guess their own gameplan. Running backs will think twice about running up the middle. Receivers will allow footsteps to affect their focus on bringing the ball in whilst crossing the middle.


On paper, as the aforementioned stats should suggest, LVE looks amazing. But when you sit down and watch those stats being garnered in action (if you are anything like me) you may come away less than impressed.


Injury Concern



There are reports that indicate he may have a lingering spinal/neck issue. Those reports have since been dismissed, LVE stating last night during his interview that he has no idea where those reports came from but last he checked Mayock is not a doctor…whatever that means. My guess is this may be one of those rare cases where there is smoke but no fire. That said, it wouldn’t be the first time when a young player decided it was better to be less than truthful about his health situation then forego lots and lots of money.



RKGollyG


With my concerns now in the rear-view, let’s dive into what likely attracted Dallas to Mr. Esch. If you have watched this kid in interviews and/or read about his lockerroom-presence, one of the things that jumps out at you is his clean-cut well-behaved manner. It’s like someone shook a VHS tape of Leave it to Beaver and LVE fell out.


Clearly this is one of the things Garrett really likes about the kid. As my “Killer Instinct” section indicated, for me this is a bit of a red flag, but to be fair, Demarcus Ware had this same exact vibe. So just because he has that demeanor of a gentle-giant, doesn’t necessarily mean he doesn’t have a special game face for when the whistle blows. Sean Lee clearly has that switch…maybe LVE does too.


Cover Me


In Rashaan Evans VS Leighton Vander Esch, I pointed out that the traits the specifically separates Evans from Esch, is Esch’s noted abilities in coverage. If you are one of those who feels the Cowboys should be more focused on shutting down the oppositions pass in this pass-happy league, then you will be thrilled to know that the Cowboys just might have landed the best coverage linebacker in the whole draft. Having said that, that’s not necessarily saying much because from what I’ve watched of the linebackers that were available this year, that is not something many were asked to do a lot of for their perspective teams. I provide that last disclaimer, because I don’t want to unfairly instill in Cowboys fans a false sense of his abilities.


That said, because of his elite athleticism, he is able to run with most running backs and tight ends in coverage, but I don’t think we would want him following anyone deep; eventually he will get beat. Ideally, the Cowboys will use him more in zone where he can use both his impressive size (6’4”) and fast-for-his-size speed (4.65 forty at 256 lbs is elite) to clog up passing lanes underneath. In this capacity, he could be very valuable to the Cowboys, particularly on 3rd down.


Wrap It Up



As you may have guessed, it’s not like I’m standing on the ledge with this pick; there is a lot to like about Leighton Vander Esch. When you get right down to it, my issue is more about personal preferences as opposed to me knowing beyond a shadow of a doubt he will be a bust. I will say the ingredients you would use to create a bust are definitely there, but until he comes out of the oven after the next 3 years, it’s really hard to say what he will be. With Sean Lee as his mentor, there is good reason to believe he could at the very least turn out to be solid, which I could live with.


Thoughts?
 
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big dog cowboy

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In the wake of a disappointing first round experience for yours truly, I feel it is important now that I clarify my position on Leighton Vander Esch. From day one I recognized the potential (both BOOM & bust)…and therein is the rub. I don’t like drafting “potential” in the first round; my preference is known commodities
That isn't the way the draft works.

There is no sure thing.
 

Bigdog

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I too wasn't thrilled with the pick at first. I wanted Evans but I hope he turns out to the people he is compare to. If that happens than we have a steal.
 

jday

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I too wasn't thrilled with the pick at first. I wanted Evans but I hope he turns out to the people he is compare to. If that happens than we have a steal.
Yep. Evans was my guy, too. Oh well...we will have to wait and see.
 

Jipper

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There are players that I'd say are more of a sure-thing than LVE.
and there are players that are less of a sure thing...

we got a great player at a position of need in the spot where he was valued....was he a steal? no, was he a reach? no...in fact, this pick was very much predicted by many out there.

Just remember, the FO and the coaching staff knows a lot more than you about player evaluation and what the Dallas Cowboys need....want to think otherwise? Fine....but you will only be lying to yourself.
 

jday

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SO this is a "they did not take the guy I want" thread.

Noted .......... I know it sucks when they do not take the guy you want.
Actually, no, that's not what this was at all. It was more of a Pro/Con contribution.
 

Carson

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How would you have felt giving picks and next years one for Davenport
 

Jake

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There are players that I'd say are more of a sure-thing than LVE.

Everyone has an opinion, and lots of them are wrong every year.

LVE is no more or less a sure thing than the alternatives when we picked.
 

Az Lurker

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I think this is a pretty fair write-up. I personally love the pick because of the size, speed, ELITE agility and the fact that he's continually and rapidly improved with experience. That last bit is the most important because it shows an upward trajectory to his skills. He's somewhat instinctual already but he hasn't peaked.

I understand a lot of people wanting a MLB to be more of a thumper and enforcer, but to me that's not the direction the NFL is going, particularly with the awareness of head injuries. I want a player who will break down, wrap up and secure the tackle, which is exactly what LVE does. The fact that he isn't great at shedding blocks is a concern but he has the size and arm length that he should get much better. He's shown to be willing to get into mix and chaos so I'm not worried that he's soft or avoiding contact.

He's not a finished flawless player, but you don't get those at 19. What he brings right away is great coverage skills, no baggage, a good attitude, and absolutely elite athleticism, freakish for a man his size. If he continues to improve his game he'll be a star, if he doesn't get any better he's still a very solid 3 down LB
 

jday

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and there are players that are less of a sure thing...

we got a great player at a position of need in the spot where he was valued....was he a steal? no, was he a reach? no...in fact, this pick was very much predicted by many out there.

Just remember, the FO and the coaching staff knows a lot more than you about player evaluation and what the Dallas Cowboys need....want to think otherwise? Fine....but you will only be lying to yourself.
It sounds like your saying the FO and coaching staff have never been wrong in their evaluation of a player...(cough bobbie carpenter cough jason williams cough morris claiborne cough every player not currently on the roster that has been drafted in the last three years cough)...o_O
 

jday

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I think this is a pretty fair write-up. I personally love the pick because of the size, speed, ELITE agility and the fact that he's continually and rapidly improved with experience. That last bit is the most important because it shows an upward trajectory to his skills. He's somewhat instinctual already but he hasn't peaked.

I understand a lot of people wanting a MLB to be more of a thumper and enforcer, but to me that's not the direction the NFL is going, particularly with the awareness of head injuries. I want a player who will break down, wrap up and secure the tackle, which is exactly what LVE does. The fact that he isn't great at shedding blocks is a concern but he has the size and arm length that he should get much better. He's shown to be willing to get into mix and chaos so I'm not worried that he's soft or avoiding contact.

He's not a finished flawless player, but you don't get those at 19. What he brings right away is great coverage skills, no baggage, a good attitude, and absolutely elite athleticism, freakish for a man his size. If he continues to improve his game he'll be a star, if he doesn't get any better he's still a very solid 3 down LB
Ah, finally...someone who actually took the time to read it before responding; thank you, sir! :thumbup:

And a well thought out retort. My day is looking up! :grin:
 
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jday

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How would you have felt giving picks and next years one for Davenport
I wouldn't have liked that, either. There were players at 19 more worthy of 19, but to be honest, I think I'd have rather'd they taken that reported trade down offer. I suspect LVE would have still been there, but on that point I could absolutely be wrong.
 

Carson

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I wouldn't have liked that, either. There were players at 19 more worthy of 19, but to be honest, I think I'd have rather'd they taken that reported trade down offer. I suspect LVE would have still been there, but on that point I could absolutely be wrong.

Just trying to make some lemonade out of lemons that is not so bad ;)
 

jday

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Everyone has an opinion, and lots of them are wrong every year.

LVE is no more or less a sure thing than the alternatives when we picked.
Fair enough. It just so happens, LVE is a guy I've been campaigning against for the last 3 months. This was more of an olive branch. Sorry if it didn't read that way.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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Yep. Evans was my guy, too. Oh well...we will have to wait and see.

Evans is hardly a sure thing. There is no question that LVE can run in space and cover. There are huge questions about that with Evans. His tape never shows that.

Evasn only started one year too wasn't nearly as productive and AL SEC hype is not a valid reason to believe in a player in my view. BSU is not some scrub program playing other scrub programs.
 

jday

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Evans is hardly a sure thing. There is no question that LVE can run in space and cover. There are huge questions about that with Evans. His tape never shows that.

Evasn only started one year too wasn't nearly as productive and AL SEC hype is not a valid reason to believe in a player in my view. BSU is not some scrub program playing other scrub programs.
Not that you should know this already, but I've been saying for awhile Evans would be a reach at 19, as well. That said, gun to my head, if I had to choose between LVE and Evans, I would choose Evans. Not because of the school, not because of the stats, but because of how I saw him play and the bad intentions he hits with.

However, if I had my ultimate choice, I would have preferred the Cowboys accept that trade down offer that is now being reported.
 
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