JustChip
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Which one do you believe stands the better chance to make you highly successful in the next 3-4 years? The guy who has had 7 years in this very job and done squat or the guy who, yes, had a blah two year run in Miami a decade or so ago but has won NCs at two different big time college programs?
Shoot, I'd take Urban Meyer over Garrett without even blinking too.
Circumstances and situations play HUGE roles in success or failure. There's no question Urban Meyer and Nick Saban are excellent coaches, but that does not guarantee they would be successful here in this situation. Hell, Bill Belichek failed in Cleveland, but has become a GOAT in NE. Part of that is he learned from the Cleveland experience, but also that the situations were drastically different (none the least of which is lucking into Tom Brady). You may still opt to try something new vs. continuing with the current, and that's fine, but don't in any way think that means success will automatically follow.