Dak, Time to Release, and Air Yards

[Clarkson]

Igenerally speaking, is slow to progress through reads and struggles to deliver down the field.

i don't think either of these conclusions can definitively be made based on this (tho the first statement seems true when you consider this + the "eye test"). the bolded part i don't think is at all definitive based on this, tho. i think it needs more context.

 

[Future]

Separate the stat to before/after cooper. That will show us a better picture of how he is doing.

Hmm, good call, but it's hard to put all of that data together for the league. For Dak:

Week 1 - 3.1 TT, 7.3 AIAY
Week 2 - 2.82, 9.2
Week 3 - 3.04, 5.2
Week 4 - 2.91, 8.7
Week 5 - 3.21, 8
Week 6 - 3.08, 9.6
Week 7 - 3.09, 10.4
Week 9 - 3.0, 7.5
Week 10 - 2.85, 5.3
Week 11 - 2.67, 6.1
Week 12 - 2.76, 6.2
Week 13 - 2.62, 7
Week 14 - 2.47, 7.6

So definitely way better in getting the ball out after Cooper showed up, but that's been obvious.

 

[Future]

i don't think either of these conclusions can definitively be made based on this (tho the first statement seems true when you consider this + the "eye test"). the bolded part i don't think is at all definitive based on this, tho. i think it needs more context.

Well, this data is meant to take out context. There are 10 million factors as to why a QB might throw down the field less, but the time it takes to get it there is generally less efficient than others.

 

[JustChip]

That's b/c wins/losses is a team stat, and this is about individual passing.

However, Dak is part of the team and handles the ball on every offensive play. Stats are nice, but as you say, these you present are purely individual and have no correlation to a team result. I guess it's like the Philly Dream Team of a few years ago. A bunch of individually outstanding (on paper) players that did not function synergistically. Dak functions within the requirements of this team and, therefore, has a measure of responsibility for any success or failure.

 

[Clarkson]

Well, this data is meant to take out context. There are 10 million factors as to why a QB might throw down the field less, but the time it takes to get it there is generally less efficient than others.

well, what i mean by context, i would throw out "weapons" as one part. which is why i'd be interested to see dak before and after amari. if receivers aren't getting open, a QB will have to hold the ball longer.

i do think dak holds the ball too long tho.

 

[Runwildboys]

Is this for the whole season?

Because it’s undeniable Dak player like crap earlier this season.

Just like it’s undeniable that Dak has played better as the season has gone on.

The numbers are interesting. But this season is really the take of two seasons or a Jekyll and Hyde season.

Dak was atrocious early in the year. And is playing much better now. Which isn’t terribly uncommon for young QB’s.

or for QBs who suddenly get a receiver they trust and have chemistry with.

 

[Clarkson]

Hmm, good call, but it's hard to put all of that data together for the league. For Dak:

Week 1 - 3.1 TT, 7.3 AIAY
Week 2 - 2.82, 9.2
Week 3 - 3.04, 5.2
Week 4 - 2.91, 8.7
Week 5 - 3.21, 8
Week 6 - 3.08, 9.6
Week 7 - 3.09, 10.4
Week 9 - 3.0, 7.5
Week 10 - 2.85, 5.3
Week 11 - 2.67, 6.1
Week 12 - 2.76, 6.2
Week 13 - 2.62, 7
Week 14 - 2.47, 7.6

So definitely way better in getting the ball out after Cooper showed up, but that's been obvious.

that's quite the difference.
this shows this is not an individual stat; a good supporting cast will help these numbers a lot. cooper alone has significantly changed them.

 

[gmoney112]

Sorry, I gotta laugh a bit here.

If it was this easy to draw such certain conclusions from narrow data, every nerd that took linear algebra + statistics while living in his mom's basement, would be a multimillionaire from sports betting.

Logic should tell you there are at, the very least, a handful of different factors that would go into such a metric.

 

[Future]

that's quite the difference.
this shows this is not an individual stat; a good supporting cast will help these numbers a lot. cooper alone has significantly changed them.

Well Dak has also been much better about getting through his reads. He's been way, way quicker to get to checkdowns, and I'm not sure how Amari would have changed that.

 

[PUSHfold]

How much can these stats truly mean if Mahomes, Goff, Wilson, Rodgers, etc, etc are lower on the list than Dak? This means nothing not a positive or a negative. Those are good to great QBs...
Bottom line- Everybody knows Dak has issues and he needs to work on them. He will keep getting better with more experience and hopefully a new coordinator and QB coach. Why every single thing has to be nit picked is beyond me....We're winning...Dak is winning...this team is winning. He gets it done when it counts the most typically which is what I want from a QB. Dak will never have consistent 400+ yard passing games and it's not because I don't think he can but because we're not that kind of offense. Dak's fine he's right where he should be for a 3rd year QB who is improving as the season goes along. He's getting better and will continue to do so.

 

[Clarkson]

However, Dak is part of the team and handles the ball on every offensive play. Stats are nice, but as you say, these you present are purely individual and have no correlation to a team result. I guess it's like the Philly Dream Team of a few years ago. A bunch of individually outstanding (on paper) players that did not function synergistically. Dak functions within the requirements of this team and, therefore, has a measure of responsibility for any success or failure.

this stat is also a team stat. QBs with receivers who get open more easily will have better numbers, as we see with the split before and after cooper.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

Right, who all average well over a yard more per attempt.

And they all have top targets to throw too as well. Dak didn't have close to the talent of those other guys until Cooper came.

 

[Roadtrip635]

15 QBs With Longest Time to Release and Average Intended Air Yards (AIAY):

J. Allen - 3.28, 11.1
D. Watson - 3.03, 8.7
R. Wilson - 3.0, 9.2
J Goff - 2.97, 8.9
A. Rodgers - 2.93, 8.8
P. Mahomes - 2.9, 9.2
S. Darnold - 2.88, 8.8
D. Prescott - 2.87, 7.6
B. Mayfield - 2.83, 9.0
B. Bortles - 2.79, 6.9
A. Smith - 2.78, 8.1
B. Osweiler - 2.78, 7.7
J. Rosen - 2.76, 8.3
J. Winston - 2.75, 10.8
J. Flacco - 2.71, 8.4

This is greatly indicative of how fast quarterbacks are able to decipher and throw the ball down the field. Some is a bit skewed by scrambling due to OL. Of those who hold the ball a long time, Dak's closest peers are Blake Bortles and Brock Osweiler.

10 QBs closest to Dak AIAY:

A. Smith - 2.78, 8.1
P. Rivers - 2.64, 7.9
C. Wentz - 2.66, 7.8
B. Osweiler - 2.78, 7.7
M. Mariota - 2.65, 7.7
D. Prescott - 2.87, 7.6
T. Brady - 2.58, 7.5
C Keenum - 2.68, 7.5
B. Roethlisberger - 2.54, 7.5
A. Luck - 2.63, 7.4
C. Newton - 2.63, 7.4

Of his peers who throw the ball downfield at the same rate, Dak is, by far, the slowest to release the ball. He doesn't even have any peers in his group.

This is why so many of the stats comparing Dak's passing to, really anybody, are disingenuous. A pass of the same distance is not the same if it takes .25 seconds longer to get there. That is an eternity in the NFL.

There are a whole bunch of trends to come from this type of data set, but at the end of the day, it's a pretty clear representation that Dak struggles to progress through his reads quickly and deliver the ball down the field. It is also why Cooper is the absolutely perfect receiver for Dak...in single-high, he just has to start at Amari until he's open.

Maybe it's about how you interpret those stats? It is not "greatly indicative" how of fast a QB processes, it's about playing style.

Take a good look at the quickest release times Brees, Brady, Manning, Ben, they are all predominately pocket QBs. They tend to stay in the pocket and aren't as mobile to extend plays so they have to get the ball out faster. Ben is borderline, but not as mobile as he used to be and tends to stay in the pocket. Now look at the bottom of the list, Wilson, Watson, Rodgers Mahomes, Dak, all mobile QBs that use their legs to extend plays, so they have "slower" times. Goff has a "slower" time and less average completed air/yards, what does that prove? Those numbers also represent the entire season, we've only had Amari for about half those games and the Intended air/yards appear to be trending up.

Looks like you're trying to use stats to further an agenda.

 

[Clarkson]

Well Dak has also been much better about getting through his reads. He's been way, way quicker to get to checkdowns, and I'm not sure how Amari would have changed that.

i mean, correlation doesn't equal causation. but i'm not sure what else would have changed that would magically make dak's numbers significantly better after acquiring a legitimate WR. i'd have to assume at least some of it is due to cooper.

 

[DIAF]

How much can these stats truly mean if Mahomes, Goff, Wilson, Rodgers, etc, etc are lower on the list than Dak? This means nothing not a positive or a negative. Those are good to great QBs...
Bottom line- Everybody knows Dak has issues and he needs to work on them. He will keep getting better with more experience and hopefully a new coordinator and QB coach. Why every single thing has to be nit picked is beyond me....We're winning...Dak is winning...this team is winning. He gets it done when it counts the most typically which is what I want from a QB. Dak will never have consistent 400+ yard passing games and it's not because I don't think he can but because we're not that kind of offense. Dak's fine he's right where he should be for a 3rd year QB who is improving as the season goes along. He's getting better and will continue to do so.

They aren't meaningless but you need to look at these numbers hand in hand with other stats to get the complete picture.

 

[Clarkson]

Well Dak has also been much better about getting through his reads. He's been way, way quicker to get to checkdowns, and I'm not sure how Amari would have changed that.

maybe cooper's presence has opened up the checkdown as a more viable option for gaining yards. maybe it's being sat on less now that two players often have to worry about cooper, whereas all the other receivers needed single coverage (if that...).

 

[DIAF]

i mean, correlation doesn't equal causation. but i'm not sure what else would have changed that would magically make dak's numbers significantly better after acquiring a legitimate WR. i'd have to assume at least some of it is due to cooper.

Funnily enough, having your number 1 receiver be open when he is the first or second read cuts way down on the time the qb holds the football. Crazy i know!

 

[ItzKelz]

So what your saying is instead of 75% completion in the last 5 games it could have been 95%. .25 seconds can make a big difference.

 

[Future]

Maybe it's about how you interpret those stats? It is not "greatly indicative" how of fast a QB processes, it's about playing style.

Take a good look at the quickest release times Brees, Brady, Manning, Ben, they are all predominately pocket QBs. They tend to stay in the pocket and aren't as mobile to extend plays so they have to get the ball out faster. Ben is borderline, but not as mobile as he used to be and tends to stay in the pocket. Now look at the bottom of the list, Wilson, Watson, Rodgers Mahomes, Dak, all mobile QBs that use their legs to extend plays, so they have "slower" times. Goff has a "slower" time and less average completed air/yards, what does that prove? Those numbers also represent the entire season, we've only had Amari for about half those games and the Intended air/yards appear to be trending up.

Looks like you're trying to use stats to further an agenda.

Looks like you don't know how to read.

The ones with longer TT or comparable TT to Dak all throw the ball further down the field. Goff is over a yard ahead of Dak, and the stat isn't "Completed" its "Attempted."

Your point is that Dak holds the ball longer because he runs, which, duh. But of those who hold the ball the longest, Dak is most comparable to Bortles and Osweiler lol. It's literally right there in the data itself, not in the agenda.

 

[Roadtrip635]

How is it a bash thread? It is raw data lol

Because you're misinterpreting the data to fit an opinion without understanding all the variables that make up the raw data.