Dak, Time to Release, and Air Yards

[Tenkamenin]

Hmm, good call, but it's hard to put all of that data together for the league. For Dak:

Week 1 - 3.1 TT, 7.3 AIAY
Week 2 - 2.82, 9.2
Week 3 - 3.04, 5.2
Week 4 - 2.91, 8.7
Week 5 - 3.21, 8
Week 6 - 3.08, 9.6
Week 7 - 3.09, 10.4
Week 9 - 3.0, 7.5
Week 10 - 2.85, 5.3
Week 11 - 2.67, 6.1
Week 12 - 2.76, 6.2
Week 13 - 2.62, 7
Week 14 - 2.47, 7.6

So definitely way better in getting the ball out after Cooper showed up, but that's been obvious.

The numbers are improving which is what matters in the long run.

 

[gimmesix]

This is why so many of the stats comparing Dak's passing to, really anybody, are disingenuous. A pass of the same distance is not the same if it takes .25 seconds longer to get there. That is an eternity in the NFL.

Not sure if you intended it this way, but unless I'm reading the stats wrong, they do not show that it takes ".25 seconds longer to get there." They show that he holds the ball longer before throwing his passes. That .25 can definitely can make quite a difference in protection since a lot of passes are thrown a split-second before getting hit.

 

[DIAF]

Data without factoring in the variables surrounding the data is pointless. Why has Dak been so much better these last 5 games as compared to the first 8? Why have his stats suddenly gone to the top of the QB charts during that time?

If you cant see the answer to this question then there is no hope for you.

If you had bothered to read my posts (which i know you haven't) I said as much earlier. These stats need to be viewed alongside what we are seeing on the field, and you need to consider things like positive and negative plays, how many of them there are, etc. etc. in order to see the relationships between them.

I even gave an example of how Dak's insane amount of sacks and fumbles would suggest that HIS holding on to the ball too long is indicative of getting through reads slowly and indecision with where to go with the ball, as opposed to mahomes or goff who don't have a gajillion sacks and have a much higher average yards in the air, which would suggest they are holding on for big plays.

See? That wasn't hard at all. All you needed to do was to read the last couple of pages of posts instead of reacting to the latest one.

 

[Future]

You say duh, but your reason is that he doesn't process fast enough "greatly indicative", were your words, according to the data, but then if that's what the data says, why would an elite QB like Rodgers take longer? Is Rodgers slower at processing, after all it's "greatly indicative" of the data?

QBs who take longer than Dak to throw the ball, are throwing the ball further down the field. It makes sense that reading or waiting for a player to develop further down the field would take longer.

 

[CowboyRoy]

You say duh, but your reason is that he doesn't process fast enough "greatly indicative", were your words, according to the data, but then if that's what the data says, why would an elite QB like Rodgers take longer? Is Rodgers slower at processing, after all it's "greatly indicative" of the data?

Goff and the Rams are a big play action based, deep passing attack. That scheme is geared for the big play. Dallas is a methodical, run first, short passing game offense by design by Garrett and Linehan (dumb and dumber)

Cooper and Dak had to go against the play calling at the end of the game in order to go deep.

Comparing the two shows a lack of understanding of any of this.

 

[Future]

Not sure if you intended it this way, but unless I'm reading the stats wrong, they do not show that it takes ".25 seconds longer to get there." They show that he holds the ball longer before throwing his passes. That .25 can definitely can make quite a difference in protection since a lot of passes are thrown a split-second before getting hit.

Well, from a WR standpoint, it's still .25 seconds more before the ball arrives. But yea, at times there's a big difference between a ball being thrown late, and a ball hanging in the air. The first pick to Amari is a good example of that...ignoring the fact that it was an underthrow....the ball was thrown on time for sure, but it just hung in the air way too long.

In a perfect world, you'd have something like time to catch, or time to incompletion, broken down by time to release and time ball is in the air. But football is a very imperfect sport lol.

 

[Runwildboys]

Runny, it's a dumb thread because it actually doesn't prove anything without actual video on every throw. Even then, videos can be misinterpreted due to a bias for or against the player. This thread's stats also don't show whether any particular receiver was covered or not during the time Dak was going through his progressions, one receiver at a time, and also how it might have affected his ability to release the ball quicker. Finally, take into account the lack of a true #1 WR and TE, plus an injury-riddled Oline for at least the 1st half of this season, well, obviously it would affect any QB in this league.

This is why it's an obvious BASH DAK thread, and a really dumb one at that, especially at this time after a 5 game win streak where Dak has seriously been lighting it up.

AC, every stat line on any subject in football is flawed. There are so many unseen factors, contributing to so many variations in any situation that none of it can be accurately assessed.

Science uses control factors as a constant measurable, and that's just not possible in the game of football. Even if 2 players had the same exact teammates, playing the same exact plays, against the same exact opponents, nothing any of the other players on either side does is going to be exactly the same.

These stats are no better or worse than any other QB stats.

 

[flosho]

Rodgers holds the ball for almost 3 seconds, I don't think he has any trouble going through reads as he's gone almost 400 pass attempts without an interception. This stat really doesn't tell us anything without more context.

We run a lot of play action and jet sweep play action that means it's probably a full second before Dak even begins to look down field!

 

[CowboyRoy]

If you had bothered to read my posts (which i know you haven't) I said as much earlier. These stats need to be viewed alongside what we are seeing on the field, and you need to consider things like positive and negative plays, how many of them there are, etc. etc. in order to see the relationships between them.

I even gave an example of how Dak's insane amount of sacks and fumbles would suggest that HIS holding on to the ball too long is indicative of getting through reads slowly and indecision with where to go with the ball, as opposed to mahomes or goff who don't have a gajillion sacks and have a much higher average yards in the air, which would suggest they are holding on for big plays.

See? That wasn't hard at all. All you needed to do was to read the last couple of pages of posts instead of reacting to the latest one.

Of you could just conclude that Dak has a worse Oline and these guys have a great Oline. Which is 100% the case.

Its funny that guys like you seem sooo critical of Dak. All these petty little blame games. But where is that critical eye on the rest of the offense and the coaching? Never hear it out of you types.

Dak certainly has some issues holding the ball or fumbling when hit. I dont think anyone disputes that.

 

[Clarkson]

Goff and the Rams are a big play action based, deep passing attack. That scheme is geared for the big play. Dallas is a methodical, run first, short passing game offense by design by Garrett and Linehan (dumb and dumber)

Cooper and Dak had to go against the play calling at the end of the game in order to go deep.

Comparing the two shows a lack of understanding of any of this.

there are just too many variables involved that significantly change these numbers to draw a definitive conclusion based on them alone. again, the fact that the numbers have been way better since cooper arrived says a lot.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Rodgers holds the ball for almost 3 seconds, I don't think he has any trouble going through reads as he's gone almost 400 pass attempts without an interception. This stat really doesn't tell us anything without more context.

We run a lot of play action and jet sweep play action that means it's probably a full second before Dak even begins to look down field!

And he often gets flushed out of the pocket quickly and has to pull the ball down and run. Takes more time.

Its like these geniuses think the QB's sit in a clean pocket until they have to throw. LOL

 

[CowboyRoy]

Well, from a WR standpoint, it's still .25 seconds more before the ball arrives. But yea, at times there's a big difference between a ball being thrown late, and a ball hanging in the air. The first pick to Amari is a good example of that...ignoring the fact that it was an underthrow....the ball was thrown on time for sure, but it just hung in the air way too long.

In a perfect world, you'd have something like time to catch, or time to incompletion, broken down by time to release and time ball is in the air. But football is a very imperfect sport lol.

How about those perfectly thrown bombs to Cooper? Did you like that release time?

 

[America's Cowboy]

flosho said: ↑
Rodgers holds the ball for almost 3 seconds, I don't think he has any trouble going through reads as he's gone almost 400 pass attempts without an interception. This stat really doesn't tell us anything without more context.

We run a lot of play action and jet sweep play action that means it's probably a full second before Dak even begins to look down field!

And he often gets flushed out of the pocket quickly and has to pull the ball down and run. Takes more time.

Its like these geniuses think the QB sit in a clean pocket until they have to throw. LOL

Exactly!

I guess it's too hard for those geniuses to think of such factors?

 

[Runwildboys]

Your statement.

Sorry, I'm referring to the staunch, "Dak is the greatest", types, not just Dak fans.

 

[Roadtrip635]

Well Dak has also been much better about getting through his reads. He's been way, way quicker to get to checkdowns, and I'm not sure how Amari would have changed that.

Having Amari would change that quite a bit. He is a WR that can get open on his own, so if he sees single coverage on him he has more confidence to make the throw. If he's double covered, then he can go quicker to other reads. Amari forces the defense to adjust, the other WRs didn't have the skillset to make a defense react that way. Without that type player on the field, it's easier for a defense to disguise their coverages and making it harder to read.

 

[G2]

Sorry, I'm referring to the staunch, "Dak is the greatest", types, not just Dak fans.

They get mixed together quite often. Those criticizing Prescott without pointing out the positives stick out like a sore thumb.

 

[gimmesix]

Well, from a WR standpoint, it's still .25 seconds more before the ball arrives. But yea, at times there's a big difference between a ball being thrown late, and a ball hanging in the air. The first pick to Amari is a good example of that...ignoring the fact that it was an underthrow....the ball was thrown on time for sure, but it just hung in the air way too long.

In a perfect world, you'd have something like time to catch, or time to incompletion, broken down by time to release and time ball is in the air. But football is a very imperfect sport lol.

We can't determine from the data, though, if the ball is taking longer to arrive when the receiver gets open. All we can derive is that it is taking him longer to get the ball out of his hands, whether that's because it is taking him longer to spot the open receiver, a slower delivery, moving around in the pocket, etc.

Whether the receiver is open earlier than when he throws the pass or the amount of time it is in the air compared to other QBs would take a different set of data.

 

[Clarkson]

Having Amari would change that quite a bit. He is a WR that can get open on his own, so if he sees single coverage on him he has more confidence to make the throw. If he's double covered, then he can go quicker to other reads. Amari forces the defense to adjust, the other WRs didn't have the skillset to make a defense react that way. Without that type player on the field, it's easier for a defense to disguise their coverages and making it harder to read.

it's literally already made a huge difference in these numbers.
we should judge Dak from the point Cooper arrived on. it's changed everything.

 

[DIAF]

All these petty little blame games.

Petty blame game? We are discussing how useful advanced stats are in football. What the?

Never hear it out of you types.

You types? Ok, yeah. Im done. You want to fight about who is right, who is wrong about the QB and therefore is a better fan and have your peeing contest, find someone else to have it with. You weren't interested in a stat discussion in the first place. You just wanted to use it as a bludgeon against anyone you think isn't all-in on Dak.

 

[percyhoward]

Right, I get that. I don't think this data set is perfect (though I do prefer Attempted Air Yards when talking about QB vision and that sort of thing), but when you look on a QB-to-QB basis, there isn't much variance as to how we view them. Brees and Brady are super efficient from the pocket. Wilson and Watson extend and make big plays. Goff has all day to throw, and that all comes out here.

What would be better is just a clean ratio, like AIYA per TT, but I don't have the time atm.

Here's why I don't like Attempted Air Yards...

Average intended air yards
Winston 10.8
Trubisky 9.1
Watson 8.7
Prescott 7.6
Brady 7.5
Brees 7.1

Passer rating on 20+ yard targets
Brees 130.0
Prescott 109.1
Brady 99.5
Trubisky 78.0
Watson 76.2
Winston 57.2