Quantitatively forecasting Zeke's road to Canton

[Cowboy Brian]

Zeke is already at 5,247 yards from scrimmage, unadjusted for his suspension.

If Zeke plays 10 full seasons at his current pace (not even accounting for the missed 6 games in season 2) - Zeke would retie with 17,489 yards from scrimmage, slotting him at #13 all time.

Accounting for Zeke's missed 6 games - grossing up his total yards from scrimmage in 2017 and adjusting for the 6 mixed games, bringing his 2017 # to 2,003. (notably, that would make his '16 season 1,994, '17 2,003, and '18 2,001 - staying in trend, and boy, look at that consistency)

His 3 year total becomes 5,998; 5,998 * 10/3 = 19,993 total yards over a ten year career. Good enough for #5 all-time, ahead of Tim Brown (who played 16 seasons), and right behind our very own Emmitt Smith (who played 14 seasons) who is at #4.

Now is where what Zeke has done these past few years becomes extremely amazing -

If Zeke played 14 seasons, the same as Emmitt, his projected career total yards from scrimmage would be 27,990, cementing his status as #1..... ahead of Jerry Rice, who would fall to #2 with 23,546 yards... it would take Zeke only 12 seasons to become the NFL's all-time leader in yards from scrimmage

 

[Creeper]

10 seasons is a long time for a RB. To be honest, I am a little worried about Zeke slowing down. Not saying he is slow, but he clearly is not the same as he was in his first season with Dallas. He doesn't break off those big runs and outrun defenders anymore. Also, during the regular season he took a lot of breathers. In the Seahawks game he broke outside and ran out of bounds after about 40 yards. The old (young) Zeke would have taken that to the house. I'll cut him some slack because I think he hurt his leg mid-season and I am not sure it was really 100% the rest of the season. But I want to see him out-running defenses like he did 2 years ago.

 

[Ebnorice]

Zero chance anyone’s body could handle the usage and the beating he is taking for 12 years.

Let alone perform at the same rate throughout.

 

[Wezsh0T]

Zeke is taking a beating. There's no way he makes it to 14 seasons. Think Marion Barber.

Emmitt could play that long because he rarely took a square hit. It always seems like Emmitt was able to slide past people or make people take bad angles on most stops.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

Only Jim Brown and Barry Sanders were truly able to sustain peak performance over their entire careers. You never know, but to me Zeke definitely does not fit the profile of someone who would be the third.

 

[gmoney112]

I think it's crazy he could go 10 seasons with his current production and still only be #13. Wow.

But yeah, I don't think he has a chance. I think he'll be good for a while though.

 

[buybuydandavis]

If Zeke played 14 seasons, the same as Emmitt, his projected career total yards from scrimmage would be 27,990, cementing his status as #1..... ahead of Jerry Rice, who would fall to #2 with 23,546 yards... it would take Zeke only 12 seasons to become the NFL's all-time leader in yards from scrimmage

That's always the big IF for RBs. IF you can last that long. And in today's NFL, it will he hard to be *the guy* as long.

 

[beware_d-ware]

10 seasons is a long time for a RB.

This.

I bet you Zeke has 3 or 4 seasons left at his current level, then the decline sets in. How he handles that decline is all up to him. He's got the skillset to handle that very well, because his game isn't centered around athleticism, so I bet you he could remain a very productive back even if he does lose a step. But if he doesn't take care of himself, the end could come fast like it did with Dez.

Let's take a guess and say he has 3 more 1400 yard seasons (till age 27), then maybe 2000 yards between 28-30, then let's say he's basically done as a runner after that. That's 10,200 yards for a career, so that puts him in the 10,000 yard club. I think that's a feasible goal, then anything after that is just a matter of staying in shape, luck, and injuries.

 

[Cowboy Brian]

This.

I bet you Zeke has 3 or 4 seasons left at his current level, then the decline sets in. How he handles that decline is all up to him. He's got the skillset to handle that very well, because his game isn't centered around athleticism, so I bet you he could remain a very productive back even if he does lose a step. But if he doesn't take care of himself, the end could come fast like it did with Dez.

Let's take a guess and say he has 3 more 1400 yard seasons (till age 27), then maybe 2000 yards between 28-30, then let's say he's basically done as a runner after that. That's 10,200 yards for a career, so that puts him in the 10,000 yard club. I think that's a feasible goal, then anything after that is just a matter of staying in shape, luck, and injuries.

I was talking total yards, so your estimates roughly put him around the 14-15k mark. I think that's the "base case". I'd be surprised if he does less.

 

[Proof]

10 seasons is a long time for a RB. To be honest, I am a little worried about Zeke slowing down. Not saying he is slow, but he clearly is not the same as he was in his first season with Dallas. He doesn't break off those big runs and outrun defenders anymore. Also, during the regular season he took a lot of breathers. In the Seahawks game he broke outside and ran out of bounds after about 40 yards. The old (young) Zeke would have taken that to the house. I'll cut him some slack because I think he hurt his leg mid-season and I am not sure it was really 100% the rest of the season. But I want to see him out-running defenses like he did 2 years ago.

I may be making this up, because I rarely can figure out where to check more specific stats, but didn’t Zeke lead the league in runs > 20 yards?

 

[Red Dragon]

I've been curious - why did running backs like Emmitt, Payton and Sanders have those long, long careers, but today's RBs just fall off a cliff after 4-6 years?

DeMarco Murray had one fantastic season and then became a nothing.

 

[Longboysfan]

10 seasons is a long time for a RB. To be honest, I am a little worried about Zeke slowing down. Not saying he is slow, but he clearly is not the same as he was in his first season with Dallas. He doesn't break off those big runs and outrun defenders anymore. Also, during the regular season he took a lot of breathers. In the Seahawks game he broke outside and ran out of bounds after about 40 yards. The old (young) Zeke would have taken that to the house. I'll cut him some slack because I think he hurt his leg mid-season and I am not sure it was really 100% the rest of the season. But I want to see him out-running defenses like he did 2 years ago.

The breathers are good for him.
Knowing when to get a short rest.

His first year they would just sub him out.
Now he knows when to ask for a break.

 

[ItzKelz]

Zeke is already at 5,247 yards from scrimmage, unadjusted for his suspension.

If Zeke plays 10 full seasons at his current pace (not even accounting for the missed 6 games in season 2) - Zeke would retie with 17,489 yards from scrimmage, slotting him at #13 all time.

Accounting for Zeke's missed 6 games - grossing up his total yards from scrimmage in 2017 and adjusting for the 6 mixed games, bringing his 2017 # to 2,003. (notably, that would make his '16 season 1,994, '17 2,003, and '18 2,001 - staying in trend, and boy, look at that consistency)

His 3 year total becomes 5,998; 5,998 * 10/3 = 19,993 total yards over a ten year career. Good enough for #5 all-time, ahead of Tim Brown (who played 16 seasons), and right behind our very own Emmitt Smith (who played 14 seasons) who is at #4.

Now is where what Zeke has done these past few years becomes extremely amazing -

If Zeke played 14 seasons, the same as Emmitt, his projected career total yards from scrimmage would be 27,990, cementing his status as #1..... ahead of Jerry Rice, who would fall to #2 with 23,546 yards... it would take Zeke only 12 seasons to become the NFL's all-time leader in yards from scrimmage

Zeke might have 4 years left in his prime.....might. That is why it's smart of his agent to try to get an extension now. See Todd Gurley and how injuries stole a potential MVP season from him and allowed an old out of shape RB to steal his thunder in the playoffs.

 

[Joe Realist]

He will be cut and done in 5 years. Use him while you can.

 

[Tangle_Foot]

I'm thinking I-30 and I-40 East

 

[Whyjerry]

Staying out of bar fights will help his chances.

 

[CPanther95]

The problem is as he gets older, it's going to get tougher to shed that extra 125 pounds he puts on each offseason.

 

[OmerV]

I may be making this up, because I rarely can figure out where to check more specific stats, but didn’t Zeke lead the league in runs > 20 yards?

Barkley lead with 16 runs of 20 yards or more. Elliott tied with 3 others for the next highest at 11.

 

[Hadenough]

10 seasons is a long time for a RB. To be honest, I am a little worried about Zeke slowing down. Not saying he is slow, but he clearly is not the same as he was in his first season with Dallas. He doesn't break off those big runs and outrun defenders anymore. Also, during the regular season he took a lot of breathers. In the Seahawks game he broke outside and ran out of bounds after about 40 yards. The old (young) Zeke would have taken that to the house. I'll cut him some slack because I think he hurt his leg mid-season and I am not sure it was really 100% the rest of the season. But I want to see him out-running defenses like he did 2 years ago.

If thats what you want Dallas must draft another RB and turn that position into a time share because Zeke is getting more touches than anyone in the league. In todays passing league its not normal to see a RB being run into the ground by the coaching staff.

 

[Hadenough]

The problem is as he gets older, it's going to get tougher to shed that extra 125 pounds he puts on each offseason.

Especially when its his head thats growing too!