PFF: DLaw projected new contract, 6 years, $126M, $60M guaranteed

[aikemirv]

6 years is too long.

 

[America's Cowboy]

This canard will never die.

TJ Watt was a linebacker in college. He's a linebacker in the pros. He's not his brother, who played DE in college and plays DE in the pros.

Taco sucks but TJ Watt was never a fit for the Dallas defense.

Well, let's see...

Based on highlights from this 2018 season alone, the Steelers run some mixed 4 man and 5 man fronts on D. On those 4 man fronts, TJ rushes from the edge both as a stand up edge rusher and also with his hand down much like D-Ware used to do. Looks pretty darn good to me, regardless of scheme fit.

 

[Future]

You don't have to be a salary cap expert to know at some point his salary cap number is just too high of a percentage of the cap.

You can make the argument that you don't want to spend that on a DL, but that number is right in line with the market.

Assuming a cap of $185 next year, Lawrence, at $21m, would be 11.35%. At $190, which isn't impossible, it's 11.05%.

Aaron Donald - 22.5/177 = 12.7%
Khalil Mack - 13.5/177 = 13.3%
Von Miller - 19/155 = 12.2%
JJ Watt - 16.7/143 = 11.7%
Olivier Vernon - 17/155 = 10.9%
Chandler Jones - 16.5/167 = 9.8%
Jason Pierre Paul - 15.5/167 = 9.2%

These numbers all skew a bit b/c of signing bonuses and cap gymnastics, but 11.35% is perfectly in line for where Lawrence should be. It's right below the truly elite players, but above the Vernons and JPPs of the world. I think the only one you point to that would, by any measure, pull Lawrence's number down is Chandler Jones, but that's outweighed by JPP and Vernon.

 

[Keithfansince5]

NOPE. Tank is not worth that. That deal would set this team back far too much. Do not do it Jerry. It is a trap. Lawrence no shows the second half of every year. He is not the "elite" player these fans seem to think he is. Let another team pay that insane amount to him and let it strap their team. Yeah it would suck to lose him and it would take a little off of their defense to not have him but if they sign a FA that can get 8 sacks or so from that spot, the drop off wouldn't be that bad. I know Lawrence is pretty good against the run too, but that is just too much for one player. I hope Stephen intervenes and doesn't allow Jerry to take the cheese.

 

[cowboyblue22]

if they want to win next year they better pay him

 

[rags747]

Better off just using the franchise tag again

 

[glimmerman]

They can put whatever number that they want out there. The guaranteed money and signing bonus is where it’s at.

 

[CCBoy]

Paying a good player as if he's a great player (just because he's the best one you have at his position) is bad business in the salary cap era.

Just who, today, do you say deserves better considerations...on this he's only a good player schtict. Prove your case for he is poor as a valued prospect with his Cowboys setting. He's proved himself at a high level, and two straight seasons. He had his shoulder taken care of and still played the entire season hurt. Care to deal out some numbers to prove your case?

 

[blueblood70]

NO! keep your projectiosn as projectytions, if his FT rate was just short of 18mil then his 2019 around 19 mil then no way do you give him 21..

5 years at 19 and if you want to guarantee the fist three, thats fine..21 is too rich for my taste..how much did Donald and Mack get I forget?

 

[Verdict]

You can make the argument that you don't want to spend that on a DL, but that number is right in line with the market.

Assuming a cap of $185 next year, Lawrence, at $21m, would be 11.35%. At $190, which isn't impossible, it's 11.05%.

Aaron Donald - 22.5/177 = 12.7%
Khalil Mack - 13.5/177 = 13.3%
Von Miller - 19/155 = 12.2%
JJ Watt - 16.7/143 = 11.7%
Olivier Vernon - 17/155 = 10.9%
Chandler Jones - 16.5/167 = 9.8%
Jason Pierre Paul - 15.5/167 = 9.2%

These numbers all skew a bit b/c of signing bonuses and cap gymnastics, but 11.35% is perfectly in line for where Lawrence should be. It's right below the truly elite players, but above the Vernons and JPPs of the world. I think the only one you point to that would, by any measure, pull Lawrence's number down is Chandler Jones, but that's outweighed by JPP and Vernon.

I really appreciate the time you took to make your post. I also appreciate that argument that you are making. While it makes some sense there are no two situations and no two players just alike in the NFL.

Falling into this trap is how guys like Andy Dalton and Blake Bortles are getting paid. Neither are worth the percentage of the cap that they are currently getting paid. The Patriots come the closest to settting their own cap numbers and not letting the market drive what they pay.

They Patriots could have paid Chandler Jones, but instead traded him and moved on. It is how their window has "stayed open" for almost 20 years. We should learn something from that.

I don't want to see Tank playing for another team any more than you do. But what I want even less is to see Tank getting Von Miller/Mack/Donald money when he is not as good as any of them. You dont pay Mack money to anyone other than Mack.

If you over pay Tank, that's money you can't pay to a guy later on. You have to set a value and stick with it or trade the player. I think I would rather have the draft pick(s) and the cap savings than the player.

 

[Nightman]

You know when these DEs get paid, they always seem to fall off. I’d still want Tank to sign but these numbers have to give you pause. When he’s taking up that kind of cap room he has to get 12-15 sacks every year to be close to worth it.

You know it is a bad deal when people are already talking about when they can get out of it

A good contract should last 5 years, not 2

5/90m with 50m guaranteed over 2+ seasons is the more logical zone.... he could play the whole 5 years

 

[Teague31]

Pass. He’s good but he’s not elite. That is elite money. Franchise him once more, let him go and get the comp pick

 

[Verdict]

That is market value and at his age, someone will gladly pay it, if not the Cowboys.

It may be better for the Cowboys if they pass on that one. I would tag him one more time before I did that. That's just my opinion.

 

[Future]

If you over pay Tank, that's money you can't pay to a guy later on. You have to set a value and stick with it or trade the player. I think I would rather have the draft pick(s) and the cap savings than the player.

The point is that $21m isn't overpaying Tank, it's market value.

You're basically advocating for what the Raiders did which, fine, but it means you don't believe that your window is open this year, because you're crippling this defense by moving Lawrence.

 

[Verdict]

Pay him

That's what some said about Dez and look how that one turned out. We knew Dez wasn't elite when we paid him too. Very similar circumstances. He's a tier or two below the really good pass rushers.

 

[Direwolf63]

The truly elite DE's get over $20M a year. Lawrence is not in that class. Plus he's had back and shoulder issues. Still, he's a very good player and would be tough to replace if he walks. There is nobody on the roster today who could match his production at his position.

I think $17M-$19M a year with $40M-$50M guaranteed and a signing bonus of $25M-$30M would be a very fair deal. Structured to get out of it in 3 or 4 years with minimal cap implications.

 

[CCBoy]

Pass. He’s good but he’s not elite. That is elite money. Franchise him once more, let him go and get the comp pick

Both Smiths, by that view...are only good as well. Trade them off for picks as well. Start all over...hey, why not?

 

[Verdict]

First up, how are YOU going to replace him...no?

Better yet, take an Indian youth and make him a real live Cowboy...

You can't let a player hold you hostage. How are you going to make cap room appear out of thin air once we have used all of it up. No thanks.

We have experienced 20 plus years of that sort of thinking and we haven't had a team with any depth to speak of for 20 years. That's why we couldn't cobble together a defense for Romo. Or had no OL during the Romo years.

You don't build a great team that is too top cap heavy.

 

[Verdict]

The point is that $21m isn't overpaying Tank, it's market value.

You're basically advocating for what the Raiders did which, fine, but it means you don't believe that your window is open this year, because you're crippling this defense by moving Lawrence.

It's better to hurt your team for one year until you can replace him than crippling your team over and over by over paying a few players. Tank can NEVER justify paying him that kind of money unless he plays Mack or Donald level, which he has never done in his entire career.

The odds Tank over performing that type of contract is nearly zero. The odds of Tank being worth that sort of money and being a fair deal for the Cowboys is less than 25 percent. The odds of us regrettting that deal are nearly 75 percent.

Think about the Crawford deal and how bad people hated that deal. Ratliff. Dez. The list goes on and on.

Set a ceiling that's fair and reasonable and stick to it, or trade him. Hard decisions have to be made.

 

[Direwolf63]

I agree to a certain exent.
Is he replaceable? look at V. Miller and A. Donald, JJ has to be in the same neighborhood as those guys, they set the market, or risk losing him because he will get paid.
may as well be by the cowboys

Miller and Donald may set the market, but in no way Lawrence is on their level. He's not nearly the game wrecker these 2 guys are.

No way Lawrence should be getting Miller, Donald or Mack money. He's not those guys.