AKATheRake
Well-Known Member
- Messages
- 6,957
- Reaction score
- 2,958
Ok, let's get this straightened out about realistic probabilities of what Demarcus Lawrence's contract is going to look like. The numbers he and his agent are realistically talking about with Stephen Jones, who says they're not far off, contract wise.
I'm hearing things like DLaw is expecting $70 million guaranteed. That's a crock, Khalil Mack got $60,000,000 guaranteed on a 7 year $141,000,000 deal. Demarcus Lawrence would not get that even on the open market and it is highly doubt-able that he is even going to get to hit the open market. He know's and everyone know's he is not going to average more money than Khalil Mack because he is not Khalil Mack.
DLaw is going to get market value on a 5-6 years contract considering he turns 27 in 2 months. Now as a 4-3 DE where does he stack up league wide? I say just under Chandler Jones of Arizona. Chandler Jones's contract was done in 2017 so Lawrence's will be 2 season's after that but at the same age of signing. Below are the top contracts and salaries for 4-3 DE's in the NFL:
https://overthecap.com/position/4-3-defensive-end/
Jones is 2 years older than Lawrence, has played 15 plus games the last 4 seasons, hasn't missed a game the past 3 and has had no less than 11 sacks in that span. Below is Jones's career numbers:
http://www.nfl.com/player/chandlerjones/2533538/careerstats
Below is Demarcus Lawrence's career numbers:
http://www.nfl.com/player/demarcuslawrence/2543490/careerstats
So Jones came off a 17 sack year and then did his contract. Lawrence is coming off a 10.5 sack year, albeit 2 years after Jones got his deal. The price of doing business has increased in 2 years obviously. Lawrence has known injuries to his back and shoulder and that's why he will most likely get a 5 not 6 year deal at 27 years of age to start the season.
Other than pie in the sky articles, it sounds like we know where Lawrence's agent wants to be and again, according to Stephen Jones, both sides are not far off. A deal will get done and there's nobody in this league on the defensive side that has received anywhere near 70% of their guaranteed total contract.
So if Lawrence is looking for $100,000,000 on a 6 year deal he would be getting $16,666,667 a season. $16,500,000 is the top going rate at his position currently, so that number is not crazy and probably what it's going to take. Multiply that annual amount by 5 and you get $83,333,335 total. Round that total off to $83,350,000 total at 40% guaranteed of that total and you get $33,340,000 guaranteed. $40,000,000 guaranteed if it's a 6 year deal at $100,000,000. Khalil Mack got 42.6% of his whole contract guaranteed, Chandler Jones got 37.6%. Below are the figures to prove that.
https://overthecap.com/position/edge-rusher/
So there it is, unless there are some very unforeseen angles in regards to the going rate for a 4-3 DE, I prefer to base the probability on DLaw's contract on current factual, contractual numbers. If there are any other angles please tell.
Other than that, is DLaw worth it?
I'm hearing things like DLaw is expecting $70 million guaranteed. That's a crock, Khalil Mack got $60,000,000 guaranteed on a 7 year $141,000,000 deal. Demarcus Lawrence would not get that even on the open market and it is highly doubt-able that he is even going to get to hit the open market. He know's and everyone know's he is not going to average more money than Khalil Mack because he is not Khalil Mack.
DLaw is going to get market value on a 5-6 years contract considering he turns 27 in 2 months. Now as a 4-3 DE where does he stack up league wide? I say just under Chandler Jones of Arizona. Chandler Jones's contract was done in 2017 so Lawrence's will be 2 season's after that but at the same age of signing. Below are the top contracts and salaries for 4-3 DE's in the NFL:
https://overthecap.com/position/4-3-defensive-end/
Jones is 2 years older than Lawrence, has played 15 plus games the last 4 seasons, hasn't missed a game the past 3 and has had no less than 11 sacks in that span. Below is Jones's career numbers:
http://www.nfl.com/player/chandlerjones/2533538/careerstats
Below is Demarcus Lawrence's career numbers:
http://www.nfl.com/player/demarcuslawrence/2543490/careerstats
So Jones came off a 17 sack year and then did his contract. Lawrence is coming off a 10.5 sack year, albeit 2 years after Jones got his deal. The price of doing business has increased in 2 years obviously. Lawrence has known injuries to his back and shoulder and that's why he will most likely get a 5 not 6 year deal at 27 years of age to start the season.
Other than pie in the sky articles, it sounds like we know where Lawrence's agent wants to be and again, according to Stephen Jones, both sides are not far off. A deal will get done and there's nobody in this league on the defensive side that has received anywhere near 70% of their guaranteed total contract.
So if Lawrence is looking for $100,000,000 on a 6 year deal he would be getting $16,666,667 a season. $16,500,000 is the top going rate at his position currently, so that number is not crazy and probably what it's going to take. Multiply that annual amount by 5 and you get $83,333,335 total. Round that total off to $83,350,000 total at 40% guaranteed of that total and you get $33,340,000 guaranteed. $40,000,000 guaranteed if it's a 6 year deal at $100,000,000. Khalil Mack got 42.6% of his whole contract guaranteed, Chandler Jones got 37.6%. Below are the figures to prove that.
https://overthecap.com/position/edge-rusher/
So there it is, unless there are some very unforeseen angles in regards to the going rate for a 4-3 DE, I prefer to base the probability on DLaw's contract on current factual, contractual numbers. If there are any other angles please tell.
Other than that, is DLaw worth it?