Using factual info to determine approximately what DLaw's contract will be and is he worth it?

[AKATheRake]

Ok, let's get this straightened out about realistic probabilities of what Demarcus Lawrence's contract is going to look like. The numbers he and his agent are realistically talking about with Stephen Jones, who says they're not far off, contract wise.

I'm hearing things like DLaw is expecting $70 million guaranteed. That's a crock, Khalil Mack got $60,000,000 guaranteed on a 7 year $141,000,000 deal. Demarcus Lawrence would not get that even on the open market and it is highly doubt-able that he is even going to get to hit the open market. He know's and everyone know's he is not going to average more money than Khalil Mack because he is not Khalil Mack.

DLaw is going to get market value on a 5-6 years contract considering he turns 27 in 2 months. Now as a 4-3 DE where does he stack up league wide? I say just under Chandler Jones of Arizona. Chandler Jones's contract was done in 2017 so Lawrence's will be 2 season's after that but at the same age of signing. Below are the top contracts and salaries for 4-3 DE's in the NFL:

https://overthecap.com/position/4-3-defensive-end/

Jones is 2 years older than Lawrence, has played 15 plus games the last 4 seasons, hasn't missed a game the past 3 and has had no less than 11 sacks in that span. Below is Jones's career numbers:

http://www.nfl.com/player/chandlerjones/2533538/careerstats


Below is Demarcus Lawrence's career numbers:

http://www.nfl.com/player/demarcuslawrence/2543490/careerstats


So Jones came off a 17 sack year and then did his contract. Lawrence is coming off a 10.5 sack year, albeit 2 years after Jones got his deal. The price of doing business has increased in 2 years obviously. Lawrence has known injuries to his back and shoulder and that's why he will most likely get a 5 not 6 year deal at 27 years of age to start the season.

Other than pie in the sky articles, it sounds like we know where Lawrence's agent wants to be and again, according to Stephen Jones, both sides are not far off. A deal will get done and there's nobody in this league on the defensive side that has received anywhere near 70% of their guaranteed total contract.

So if Lawrence is looking for $100,000,000 on a 6 year deal he would be getting $16,666,667 a season. $16,500,000 is the top going rate at his position currently, so that number is not crazy and probably what it's going to take. Multiply that annual amount by 5 and you get $83,333,335 total. Round that total off to $83,350,000 total at 40% guaranteed of that total and you get $33,340,000 guaranteed. $40,000,000 guaranteed if it's a 6 year deal at $100,000,000. Khalil Mack got 42.6% of his whole contract guaranteed, Chandler Jones got 37.6%. Below are the figures to prove that.

https://overthecap.com/position/edge-rusher/


So there it is, unless there are some very unforeseen angles in regards to the going rate for a 4-3 DE, I prefer to base the probability on DLaw's contract on current factual, contractual numbers. If there are any other angles please tell.

Other than that, is DLaw worth it?

 

[Stash]

Ok, let's get this straightened out about realistic probabilities of what Demarcus Lawrence's contract is going to look like. The numbers he and his agent are realistically talking about with Stephen Jones, who says they're not far off, contract wise.

I'm hearing things like DLaw is expecting $70 million guaranteed. That's a crock, Khalil Mack got $60,000,000 guaranteed on a 7 year $141,000,000 deal. Demarcus Lawrence would not get that even on the open market and it is highly doubt-able that he is even going to get to hit the open market. He know's and everyone know's he is not going to average more money than Khalil Mack because he is not Khalil Mack.

DLaw is going to get market value on a 5-6 years contract considering he turns 27 in 2 months. Now as a 4-3 DE where does he stack up league wide? I say just under Chandler Jones of Arizona. Chandler Jones's contract was done in 2017 so Lawrence's will be 2 season's after that but at the same age of signing. Below are the top contracts and salaries for 4-3 DE's in the NFL:

https://overthecap.com/position/4-3-defensive-end/

Jones is 2 years older than Lawrence, has played 15 plus games the last 4 seasons, hasn't missed a game the past 3 and has had no less than 11 sacks in that span. Below is Jones's career numbers:

http://www.nfl.com/player/chandlerjones/2533538/careerstats


Below is Demarcus Lawrence's career numbers:

http://www.nfl.com/player/demarcuslawrence/2543490/careerstats


So Jones came off a 17 sack year and then did his contract. Lawrence is coming off a 10.5 sack year, albeit 2 years after Jones got his deal. The price of doing business has increased in 2 years obviously. Lawrence has known injuries to his back and shoulder and that's why he will most likely get a 5 not 6 year deal at 27 years of age to start the season.

Other than pie in the sky articles, it sounds like we know where Lawrence's agent wants to be and again, according to Stephen Jones, both sides are not far off. A deal will get done and there's nobody in this league on the defensive side that has received anywhere near 70% of their guaranteed total contract.

So if Lawrence is looking for $100,000,000 on a 6 year deal he would be getting $16,666,667 a season. $16,500,000 is the top going rate at his position currently, so that number is not crazy and probably what it's going to take. Multiply that annual amount by 5 and you get $83,333,335 total. Round that total off to $83,350,000 total at 40% guaranteed of that total and you get $33,340,000 guaranteed. $40,000,000 guaranteed if it's a 6 year deal at $100,000,000. Khalil Mack got 42.6% of his whole contract guaranteed, Chandler Jones got 37.6%. Below are the figures to prove that.

https://overthecap.com/position/edge-rusher/


So there it is, unless there are some very unforeseen angles in regards to the going rate for a 4-3 DE I prefer to base the probability on DLaw's contract on current factual, contractual numbers. If there are any other angles please tell.

Other than that, is DLaw worth it?

You've confused guaranteed money with guaranteed at signing.

And his contract will be $100 million over 5 years, not 6 years.

 

[Future]

This is all well and good, but the numbers that matter are % of cap and % of salary guaranteed.

To be honest, if the guarantees decrease the cap hit, that's what the Cowboys should do. He'll be 27 when the contract starts, he's right in his prime. Guarantees are far more of a problem for older players.

 

[Risen Star]

Do some homework before starting a thread.

 

[AKATheRake]

You've confused guaranteed money with guaranteed at signing.

And his contract will be $100 million over 5 years, not 6 years.

Where did I confuse that? My links are from overthecap.com.

 

[AKATheRake]

This is all well and good, but the numbers that matter are % of cap and % of salary guaranteed.

To be honest, if the guarantees decrease the cap hit, that's what the Cowboys should do. He'll be 27 when the contract starts, he's right in his prime. Guarantees are far more of a problem for older players.

Absolutely agree. Only problem with guarantee's, which is the usual sticking point with players is when one breaks down you can't get rid of them as I am sure you know.

Our biggest worry with not getting DLaw signed was his durability and availability.

 

[AKATheRake]

Do some homework before starting a thread.

What homework is that? You write a sentence and I have several figurative links from professional sites.

 

[Stash]

Where did I confuse that? My links are from overthecap.com.

Khalil Mack's contract for starters:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...ssive-141m-deal-with-90m-in-guaranteed-money/

 

[Longboysfan]

Ok, let's get this straightened out about realistic probabilities of what Demarcus Lawrence's contract is going to look like. The numbers he and his agent are realistically talking about with Stephen Jones, who says they're not far off, contract wise.

I'm hearing things like DLaw is expecting $70 million guaranteed. That's a crock, Khalil Mack got $60,000,000 guaranteed on a 7 year $141,000,000 deal. Demarcus Lawrence would not get that even on the open market and it is highly doubt-able that he is even going to get to hit the open market. He know's and everyone know's he is not going to average more money than Khalil Mack because he is not Khalil Mack.

DLaw is going to get market value on a 5-6 years contract considering he turns 27 in 2 months. Now as a 4-3 DE where does he stack up league wide? I say just under Chandler Jones of Arizona. Chandler Jones's contract was done in 2017 so Lawrence's will be 2 season's after that but at the same age of signing. Below are the top contracts and salaries for 4-3 DE's in the NFL:

https://overthecap.com/position/4-3-defensive-end/

Jones is 2 years older than Lawrence, has played 15 plus games the last 4 seasons, hasn't missed a game the past 3 and has had no less than 11 sacks in that span. Below is Jones's career numbers:

http://www.nfl.com/player/chandlerjones/2533538/careerstats


Below is Demarcus Lawrence's career numbers:

http://www.nfl.com/player/demarcuslawrence/2543490/careerstats


So Jones came off a 17 sack year and then did his contract. Lawrence is coming off a 10.5 sack year, albeit 2 years after Jones got his deal. The price of doing business has increased in 2 years obviously. Lawrence has known injuries to his back and shoulder and that's why he will most likely get a 5 not 6 year deal at 27 years of age to start the season.

Other than pie in the sky articles, it sounds like we know where Lawrence's agent wants to be and again, according to Stephen Jones, both sides are not far off. A deal will get done and there's nobody in this league on the defensive side that has received anywhere near 70% of their guaranteed total contract.

So if Lawrence is looking for $100,000,000 on a 6 year deal he would be getting $16,666,667 a season. $16,500,000 is the top going rate at his position currently, so that number is not crazy and probably what it's going to take. Multiply that annual amount by 5 and you get $83,333,335 total. Round that total off to $83,350,000 total at 40% guaranteed of that total and you get $33,340,000 guaranteed. $40,000,000 guaranteed if it's a 6 year deal at $100,000,000. Khalil Mack got 42.6% of his whole contract guaranteed, Chandler Jones got 37.6%. Below are the figures to prove that.

https://overthecap.com/position/edge-rusher/


So there it is, unless there are some very unforeseen angles in regards to the going rate for a 4-3 DE, I prefer to base the probability on DLaw's contract on current factual, contractual numbers. If there are any other angles please tell.

Other than that, is DLaw worth it?

Thank you.

Well thought out.

 

[CF74]

14-18 per

 

[Hennessy_King]

16-19 mil a year 5 years 60% guaranteed. if he thinks he's a 20 mil a year dude throw him out.

 

[xwalker]

Ok, let's get this straightened out about realistic probabilities of what Demarcus Lawrence's contract is going to look like. The numbers he and his agent are realistically talking about with Stephen Jones, who says they're not far off, contract wise.

I'm hearing things like DLaw is expecting $70 million guaranteed. That's a crock, Khalil Mack got $60,000,000 guaranteed on a 7 year $141,000,000 deal. Demarcus Lawrence would not get that even on the open market and it is highly doubt-able that he is even going to get to hit the open market. He know's and everyone know's he is not going to average more money than Khalil Mack because he is not Khalil Mack.

DLaw is going to get market value on a 5-6 years contract considering he turns 27 in 2 months. Now as a 4-3 DE where does he stack up league wide? I say just under Chandler Jones of Arizona. Chandler Jones's contract was done in 2017 so Lawrence's will be 2 season's after that but at the same age of signing. Below are the top contracts and salaries for 4-3 DE's in the NFL:

https://overthecap.com/position/4-3-defensive-end/

Jones is 2 years older than Lawrence, has played 15 plus games the last 4 seasons, hasn't missed a game the past 3 and has had no less than 11 sacks in that span. Below is Jones's career numbers:

http://www.nfl.com/player/chandlerjones/2533538/careerstats


Below is Demarcus Lawrence's career numbers:

http://www.nfl.com/player/demarcuslawrence/2543490/careerstats


So Jones came off a 17 sack year and then did his contract. Lawrence is coming off a 10.5 sack year, albeit 2 years after Jones got his deal. The price of doing business has increased in 2 years obviously. Lawrence has known injuries to his back and shoulder and that's why he will most likely get a 5 not 6 year deal at 27 years of age to start the season.

Other than pie in the sky articles, it sounds like we know where Lawrence's agent wants to be and again, according to Stephen Jones, both sides are not far off. A deal will get done and there's nobody in this league on the defensive side that has received anywhere near 70% of their guaranteed total contract.

So if Lawrence is looking for $100,000,000 on a 6 year deal he would be getting $16,666,667 a season. $16,500,000 is the top going rate at his position currently, so that number is not crazy and probably what it's going to take. Multiply that annual amount by 5 and you get $83,333,335 total. Round that total off to $83,350,000 total at 40% guaranteed of that total and you get $33,340,000 guaranteed. $40,000,000 guaranteed if it's a 6 year deal at $100,000,000. Khalil Mack got 42.6% of his whole contract guaranteed, Chandler Jones got 37.6%. Below are the figures to prove that.

https://overthecap.com/position/edge-rusher/


So there it is, unless there are some very unforeseen angles in regards to the going rate for a 4-3 DE, I prefer to base the probability on DLaw's contract on current factual, contractual numbers. If there are any other angles please tell.

Other than that, is DLaw worth it?

Mack
Total Value 141
Guaranteed 60

90 Percent
Total Value 126.9
Guaranteed 54

80 Percent
Total Value 112.8
Guaranteed 48

70 Percent
Total Value 98.7
Guaranteed 42

 

[AKATheRake]

Mack
Total Value 141
Guaranteed 60

90 Percent
Total Value 126.9
Guaranteed 54

80 Percent
Total Value 112.8
Guaranteed 48

70 Percent
Total Value 98.7
Guaranteed 42

From overthecap.com. Professional site.

https://overthecap.com/position/4-3-defensive-end/ <<<<< This is current for all 4-3 DE's as we speak today. There is a column of % of contract guaranteed. Regardless of how the numbers are promoted in reports to create sizzle, as in "at signing", the real guaranteed is what matter's no matter what.

https://overthecap.com/position/edge-rusher/ <<<< Here's for edge rushers which Khalil Mack falls into that category and everything is columned exactly the same for the position.

All anyone has to do is click on those links and it outlines exactly what numbers and percentages I have outlined for Khalil Mack (Edge Rusher) and Chandler Jones (4-3 DE) in my OP. Demarcus Lawrence is there under his franchise tag contract as a 4-3 DE.

You're top number on Mack is exactly as it is. I know there have been reports of $90 million guaranteed at signing, but it's really $60,000,000 guaranteed as this site shows, which is 42.6% of his $141,000,000, 7 year contract.

 

[AKATheRake]

16-19 mil a year 5 years 60% guaranteed. if he thinks he's a 20 mil a year dude throw him out.

I agree, he's definitely not a $20 million a year player. Stephen said they're not far off so i doubt we're going to have to throw him to the curb. They're probably gashing at the guarantees.

If you look at the number's and the circumstances, he's not Chandler Jone's either as a $16,500,000 player. But it is 2 years later and pricing has gone up with the cap. Jone's dwarfs Lawrence's production while playing on a worse defense, playing from behind most of the time, not ahead and really has no one else on that d-line to take the attention off of him. That's why I believe Jone's is a good comparison player wise as long as we consider doing a contract 2 years after Jones Got his.

In that regard, I'm good with 5 years, 85,000,000 at $17,000,000 per with 40% guaranteed which is in between Jones and Mack's guaranteed %. If they do 60% guaranteed that's obviously because they want to stack most of the money upfront into this years cap which i would have no qualms about that. just better hope he's willing to hustle the way he is now till he's 30. Von Miller's 29 and will be 30 next month. People are already considering trading him because of the contract to production. He got $42,000,000 guaranteed on a 6 year deal. At 60% on a 5 year deal Lawrence would get $51,000,000. Scary.

 

[Direwolf63]

What homework is that? You write a sentence and I have several figurative links from professional sites.

He was being sarcastic.

It was actually a compliment.....in his strange sort of way.

Good post by the way.

 

[AKATheRake]

He was being sarcastic.

It was actually a compliment.....in his strange sort of way.

Good post by the way.

Thanks on both accounts. Thought I was getting dogged and actually realize it now.

 

[AKATheRake]

Do some homework before starting a thread.

Thanks by the way.

 

[Direwolf63]

Where did I confuse that? My links are from overthecap.com.

From overthecap.com:

September 1, 2018 Khalil Mack signed a 6 year extension with the Chicago Bears. Based on a report from Profootballtalk. The extension is worth $141 million with $60 million guaranteed at signing with $90 million in total guarantees. Mack received a $34 million signing bonus. Mack's 2018 & 2019 base salaries and roster bonuses are guaranteed at signing. Mack's 2020 base salary is guaranteed for injury at signing but vests to a full guaranteed on the 3rd day of the 2019 league year. $16 million of Mack's 2021 base salary is guaranteed for injury at signing and vests to a full guarantee on the 3rd day of the 2020 league year. Mack is due a $5.5 million roster bonus on the 3rd day of the league year in 2022, 2023, and 2024.

 

[xwalker]

From overthecap.com. Professional site.

https://overthecap.com/position/4-3-defensive-end/ <<<<< This is current for all 4-3 DE's as we speak today. There is a column of % of contract guaranteed. Regardless of how the numbers are promoted in reports to create sizzle, as in "at signing", the real guaranteed is what matter's no matter what.

https://overthecap.com/position/edge-rusher/ <<<< Here's for edge rushers which Khalil Mack falls into that category and everything is columned exactly the same for the position.

All anyone has to do is click on those links and it outlines exactly what numbers and percentages I have outlined for Khalil Mack (Edge Rusher) and Chandler Jones (4-3 DE) in my OP. Demarcus Lawrence is there under his franchise tag contract as a 4-3 DE.

You're top number on Mack is exactly as it is. I know there have been reports of $90 million guaranteed at signing, but it's really $60,000,000 guaranteed as this site shows, which is 42.6% of his $141,000,000, 7 year contract.

The percentages I posted are the percentages of Macks contract. Not the percent of guaranteed relative to overall.

Is DLaw worth 90% of Mack? Is he worth 70% of Mack, etc.?

 

[beware_d-ware]

I've thought for a while that D-Law's closest comp as a free agent was Olivier Vernon. Kinda late bloomers, put up two big seasons of pass rushing with some very strong run defense.

Vernon got $17 million a year on the open market, and that was 3 years ago. $20 million a year for D-Law would be right about in line with that.