40 yr dash is meaningless and waste of time

[kskboys]

It's just one part of a myriad of tests to give teams an idea of a player's athleticism/traits. By itself, most parts of the combine are worthless. However, taking them all together, a team can get an idea of some things.

It's fans and a couple of really dumb GM's who take the 40 as an endall.

 

[wecasa]

Speed is meaningless if you have frying pans for hands.

 

[eromeopolk]

Just to show how meaningless it is to measure a players speed on a race track for 40 yards without pads....here ya go

I agree by itself the 40yd dash is meaningless. However, its not meaningless combined with other analytics (what we use to call measurables). Look at size/weight, short shuttle, 10 yard split, cone drill, vertical, and broad jump in combination with the 40yd time..

An example is Chris Johnson 10 yard split was an amazing 1.40, with a +35" vertical, and he was 5-11-197. Compared to John Ross, Chris 40 yd time at 4.24 means more because he was 10 pounds heavier and had .09 seconds more initial acceleration. So that's why Chris Johnson 1st 4 years in the NFL looked like Tony Dorsett and John Ross has done nothing in the NFL. What does the 40 yard dash means? "If even he's leaving".

Another example is Cowboys Amari Cooper. Many WRs come into the NFL with 4.40-4.45 40yd times. But when you add Cooper's 6-1-210 frame, 3.98 short shuttle and 6.71 cone drill, 34" vertical, his 4.42 40yd time is more explosive than John Ross's 4.22 40yd time who had a 4.35 short shuttle (Ross has long speed not short speed). That is why Cooper's route running in and out of breaks is so amazing to look at on the field. Combine this with his 4.42 40 yd time, when he is even, he's leaving everyone in the secondary (ask Philly and the Rams).

The most gifted speed with acceleration athlete I have seen on the football field was Tony Dorsett, who had 4.35 40yd time speed but his short shuttle had to be unreal because his acceleration has never been matched. You can not coach break away speed combined with short shuttle acceleration.

Speed kills on the football field.

 

[DFWJC]

Of course it's important.
Just has to be put into proper context like everything else.
Come on

 

[kskboys]

Speed is meaningless if you have frying pans for hands.

Or 2X4's for hips.

 

[Mr_437]

My 4.37 (40) thinks otherwise, haha. All coaches want speed! Now, yes a player has to be more than a track guy for that speed to be a weapon, but to say a 40 is unimportant is nonsense.

Players have to evaluated, so height, weight, 3 cone, bench..etc...isn't important either (?) cause there all the same...tools (measurements) to know what type of athlete their observing.

 

[DCowboyz]

40yd time isn’t an end-all in itself; simply another measurable parameter, such as height, weight, vertical jump, Wonderlic test, 225lb bench reps, etc, used to evaluate rookies.

No player was ever drafted based strictly on his 40yd time — or any other single measurement.

The Raiders would like a word.

 

[Kaiser]

40yd time isn’t an end-all in itself; simply another measurable parameter, such as height, weight, vertical jump, Wonderlic test, 225lb bench reps, etc, used to evaluate rookies..

Exactly, but some teams place more weight on measurables than tape and its generally a mistake. Mike Mamula was taken 7th in the draft after dominating the Underwear Olympics and he lasted about a week in the NFL. Travis Fredrick ran a Sundial 40 and has been to the Pro Bowl.

 

[cowboyec]

not if your the CB who took a bad angle.....or RB who busted thru the hole.

 

[mattjames2010]

Just to show how meaningless it is to measure a players speed on a race track for 40 yards without pads....here ya go

Again, he had more receiving TDs than any of our receivers last year.

While the emphasis on 40 times, for the most part, don't differentiate from one another too much. When a guy runs in the 4.2 - you are, at the very least, intrigued because that speed DOES make a difference.

 

[kskboys]

Evaluating college players coming into the NFL is beyond tough. There are many, many who look like sure studs who become puds. So, every evaluative tool available should be assessed.

The most accurate indication I've observed pointing toward success is the Senior Bowl. Guys who blow it up there have a very high rate of succes.

 

[kskboys]

The Raiders would like a word.

Several words!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And our own Bob Hayes. I think someone drafted Usain Bolt one year.

 

[Jarv]

I completely agree. They should have them wear pads for the event at least, then it might have at least some importance.

Absolutely! Been saying the same for years!

 

[G2]

It's NOT meaningless. It's just not the ONLY thing to consider. When you take ONE exercise from the entire combine and act like it's the only one, then there ya go!

 

[Hadenough]

Just to show how meaningless it is to measure a players speed on a race track for 40 yards without pads....here ya go

I tend to agree but it's fun to watch. The one thing I have noticed in all the years of watching NFL football ball is a true shut down corner which is rare always runs in the 4.3s or better. This could of saved Jerry and company a lot of dissappointment if they only applied it to Claiborne.

 

[AsthmaField]

I agree by itself the 40yd dash is meaningless. However, its not meaningless combined with other analytics (what we use to call measurables). Look at size/weight, short shuttle, 10 yard split, cone drill, vertical, and broad jump in combination with the 40yd time..

An example is Chris Johnson 10 yard split was an amazing 1.40, with a +35" vertical, and he was 5-11-197. Compared to John Ross, Chris 40 yd time at 4.24 means more because he was 10 pounds heavier and had .09 seconds more initial acceleration. So that's why Chris Johnson 1st 4 years in the NFL looked like Tony Dorsett and John Ross has done nothing in the NFL. What does the 40 yard dash means? "If even he's leaving".

Another example is Cowboys Amari Cooper. Many WRs come into the NFL with 4.40-4.45 40yd times. But when you add Cooper's 6-1-210 frame, 3.98 short shuttle and 6.71 cone drill, 34" vertical, his 4.42 40yd time is more explosive than John Ross's 4.22 40yd time who had a 4.35 short shuttle (Ross has long speed not short speed). That is why Cooper's route running in and out of breaks is so amazing to look at on the field. Combine this with his 4.42 40 yd time, when he is even, he's leaving everyone in the secondary (ask Philly and the Rams).

The most gifted speed with acceleration athlete I have seen on the football field was Tony Dorsett, who had 4.35 40yd time speed but his short shuttle had to be unreal because his acceleration has never been matched. You can not coach break away speed combined with short shuttle acceleration.

Speed kills on the football field.

I agree. Nice post.

Coopers acceleration is rare... particularly for a guy his size. That trait absolutely causes huge problems for guys trying to cover him. You can see it clearly when he catches a ball when he’s sitting down in one spot and then explodes downfield. The guys trying to cover him simply can’t accelerate quickly enough to catch him. All year I watched him do a simple button hook and when he caught the ball facing the QB, as the DB was running straight at his back, Cooper would explode to the side, turn upfield and gain big YAC. Meanwhile the DB was still going to the spot where Amari caught the ball.

He is just so quick twitch. It is why his route running is so difficult for defenders, and why he’s so dangerous after the catch.

This trait was evident from his 3-cone and short shuttle times at the combine. Add that info to his good (but not great) 40 time, and his exceptional play at Alabama, and it was pretty clear you were looking at a very good WR at the next level. It’s why he was a top 5 pick.

 

[kskboys]

I tend to agree but it's fun to watch. The one thing I have noticed in all the years of watching NFL football ball is a true shut down corner which is rare always runs in the 4.3s or better. This could of saved Jerry and company a lot of dissappointment if they only applied it to Claiborne.

Joe Haden ran a 4.57. Asomugha 4.45. Richard Sherman 4.56.

 

[DFWJC]

If Chris Johnson ran a 4.7 forty, he would not have even made an NFL roster.
Instead, he averaged over 1000 yards in 9 seasons and went for over 2000 in one of them.

 

[beware_d-ware]

40 correlates to success at several positions. For RBs, there's a metric called Speed Score, which is literally just a prospect weight divided by his 40 time ((weight * 200 /(40 time)^4) to be more accurate. As you can see, just taking size and speed alone is a decent predictor of success.



It's not the be all end all, there's some guys like Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara who balled out with poor Speed Scores, but it's another tool to have in your box. Your best rookie RBs this year - Saquon, Chubb, and Michel - all put up "passing" Speed Scores over 100, while Ronald Jones put up the second worst Speed Score in the class and rushed for under three yards per carry.

Linebackers, also, have a really high correlation of success with 40 and jumps. Tape is key for LBs, because we could sit here and name athletic LBs who couldn't find the ball all day. But if you find a guy with good film, and he tests out as being fast and explosive, chances are he's going to be a player. LVE annihilated those metrics, and Jaylon would have put up numbers like we've seldom seen before if he'd been healthy enough to run.

So don't throw out the baby with the bathwater. Some 4.7 guys are Jerry Rice or Anquon Boldin and some 4.3 blazers end up being John Ross or Darius Heyward-Bey, but there are positions where speed matters and the 40 helps you to find good players there.

Rotoworld has been doing a really fun series about the statistical correlation between NFL stats and certain Combine and college stats. There's a lot of charts and info to take in, but it's a treasure trove if you're a draft nut. This is the one for defense.

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbers/nfl-draft-analytics-def

And to be honest - the whole tape vs measurables thing reminds me a lot of the BPA vs need debate, where I think people take it too literally. You need both. Tape versus measurables to me is more of a lean one way or the other when the two are saying different things, not a wholesale rejection of one or the other.

 

[blueblood70]

speed kills but only if you can also run routes and catch plus take hits..if it were only speed wed be going after track stars..

football is different , its a rarity to find speed with a the ability to run perfect routes and be deceptive in and out of cuts plus catch the football and take the big hit..they use these drills for the fringe guys, projects etc because they already know what the blue chippers can do as they have tape from college where they got all the snaps..the low depth chart and small school guys need the combine and all the 40s and drills to give teams better look..