Red Zone, 2015-17
Catches / 1st downs / TD
Bryant 22 / 16 / 14
Witten 26 / 19 / 9
Beasley 20 / 18 / 14
Williams 7 / 3 / 3
Butler 3 / 2 / 2
total: 78 / 58 / 42
Elliott 6 / 2 / 1
Gallup 0 / 0 / 0
Swaim-Jarwin-Schultz 0 / 0 / 0
Beasley 20 / 18 /14
Cooper 11 / 7 / 5
total: 37 / 27 / 20
At the top are the five most-targeted players in the red zone from 2015-17, along with their 2015-17 production. Beasley had a much smaller share of the targets (14%) than Bryant (29%) or Witten (28%), but was very efficient in the red zone when he was targeted.
Below that are the five most-targeted players (treating the 3 most-targeted TE as one) in the red zone in 2018 -- again with their 2015-17 production to show the huge hole that would have to be filled. Elliott had only 6 red zone catches going into 2018. Neither Swaim nor Jarwin had a red zone catch, Schultz and Gallup were both rookies. Cooper had just 11 red zone catches and 5 TD in those three seasons in Oakland.
It all added up to less than half the receptions, less than half the first downs, and less than half the touchdowns of the most-targeted red zone players from the previous three seasons. How did they perform in 2018? How much of the hole got filled?
Elliott 11 / 4 / 2
Gallup 4 / 2 / 2
Swaim-Jarwin-Schultz 7 / 4 / 3
Beasley 6 / 2 / 2
Cooper 3 / 2 / 2
Being generous, this team had exactly one established red zone receiving threat heading into 2018 -- Cole Beasley. But without Bryant or Witten to draw the defense's attention, Beasley wasn't open like he was in the previous three seasons. His share of red zone targets went down from 14% to 9%. Extrapolating the 2018 numbers over three seasons for the sake of comparison, Elliott and the three TE all together were the equivalent of a less efficient Witten. Gallup and Cooper combined didn't match what was Dez was able to accomplish (mostly in 2016, and battling injuries much of the time).
Yes, that's a drop off. No wonder the Cowboys went from 5th and 7th in red zone TD% the previous two years to 26th in 2018. Frederick's return should help the running game in close, which in turn will make passing easier, but this team must develop some red zone weapons.