Since 2016, in the 4th Quarter: Dak has 14 GW Drives, most in NFL

[TheMarathonContinues]

It makes perfect sense. It literally means it would rather have zero game winning drives in the 4th quarter because I would rather not be losing going into the 4th quarter.

Yeah but that’s like saying I’d rather Dak have zero picks. Nobody has zero picks. You’re saying you’d rather have something that doesn’t happen.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

dak would not have that many fourth quarter comebacks had he not gotten off to a lot of slow starts that he has had. he needs to come out at the start of games better this year if this team is going to take the next step. the cowboys schedule is not real easy this year we have some teams this year can put up points and with him starting out slow like he does sometimes that will make it harder for this team two win ten or more games this coming season.

That’s poor coaching that’s not on Dak. Dak bails our the poor coaching in the 4th.

 

[lwehlers]

That’s poor coaching that’s not on Dak. Dak bails our the poor coaching in the 4th.

some of it is coaching I agree but some of it is on dak himself.

 

[12+88=7]

That would be better. Let's stop forcing our QB to have to lead game-winning drives. Some other teams make it easier on their QB by actually establishing leads and holding on to them.

Of course, this is nothing different than we saw with this team with Romo at QB, the need for comebacks because our defense blew a lead. Hopefully, we're getting the defense to the point where that won't be the case and it will simply be up to the offense to give it a lead to protect.

Now it's different, the Dallas defense is good enough but the offense isn't, and this keeps the opposing teams in the game. This leads to close games and more opportunities for game winning drives.

It's ironic that when Romo was the QB the offense was good and the defense was suspect. Romo leaves and the defense is good and the offense is suspect.

The defense afforded to Prescott in his three years starting is better than Romo ever had over his career, except for 2009.

If Dallas could ever sync the two they would be odds on favorite to win the SB and not just contenders.

 

[percyhoward]

Now it's different, the Dallas defense is good enough but the offense isn't, and this keeps the opposing teams in the game. This leads to close games and more opportunities for game winning drives.

Most game-winning drive/4th-quarter comeback opportunities fail. Kacsmar (the guy who came up with the GWD stat) posted this in 2014, but you'd have to assume that not much has changed with regard to the win%. Look at it, and you'll only find two QB whose teams were above .500 in these opportunities.

That makes Dallas' .591 over Dak's three years quite impressive. Same with his QBR on these drives (best since 2006). Same with his "late and close" passer rating from 2016-18 (3rd-best).

 

[gimmesix]

That's also been a part of the team philosophy before Dak came along. Ball control, keep the scores close, don't make mistakes, run the clock, which keeps games closer. Even when we were leading in some games, we played conservative football, which keeps the door open for another team to make a comeback.

I agree with that to an extent. In 2014, we became a ball-control team. That means we're not going to be scoring in the 30s unless we capitalize on every possession. If the offense is good enough to do that, then it lessens the chance of a comeback, though, if the defense is any good.

In 2014, running this offense, we scored 29.2 points per games (fifth in the league). In 2018, we scored 21.2 (22nd). Fewer comebacks are needed when you are fifth in the league in scoring ... unless your defense sucks.

 

[gimmesix]

Right, "late & close" is how they play when the game is close in the 4th, whether leading, tied, or trailing.

4th qtr/OT
margin 8 points or less
2018
1 Ryan 123.4
2 Wentz 116.9
3 Mahomes 112.3
4 Brady 109.2
5 Prescott 109.1

2017-18
1 Prescott 112.6
2 Wilson 112.3
3 Ryan 108.5
4 Watson 107.0
5 Luck 106.8

2016-18
1 Wilson 111.2
2 Brady 110.4
3 Prescott 108.3
4 Roethlisberger 108.3
5 Ryan 106.8

Thanks for that.

 

[gimmesix]

DALLAS OFFENSE
Percentage of drives ending in TD (NFL rank)
Drive ended in 1st-3rd qtr
18.5% (24th)
Drive ended in 4th qtr/OT
33.3% (4th)

DALLAS DEFENSE
Percentage of OPPONENTS' drives ending in TD (NFL rank)
Drive ended in 1st-3rd qtr
17.6% (4th)
Drive ended in 4th qtr/OT
31.4% (28th)

Is this the 2014 numbers or 2018?

What it seems to reflect unless I'm reading it wrong, is that offense didn't score much and the defense didn't allow much through the first three quarters. Then the fourth quarter was a free-for-all. Is that correct?

 

[percyhoward]

Thanks for that.

You're welcome.

Also, the NFLN screenshot in the OP doesn't count postseason. To update on Kacsmar's tweet that Roadtrip posted, Dak is actually 15-9 (.625) in GWD opportunities.

 

[percyhoward]

Is this the 2014 numbers or 2018?

What it seems to reflect unless I'm reading it wrong, is that offense didn't score much and the defense didn't allow much through the first three quarters. Then the fourth quarter was a free-for-all. Is that correct?

It's 2018, and it's really interesting. Does it justify the conservative offensive approach for 3 quarters, or does it expose why it was wrong, or is it even relevant? Did the defense run out of gas when the offense accelerated in the 4th, or was the defense tired already?

 

[gimmesix]

It's 2018, and it's really interesting. Does it justify the conservative offensive approach for 3 quarters, or does it expose why it was wrong, or is it even relevant? Did the defense run out of gas when the offense accelerated in the 4th, or was the defense tired already?

It seems to me that if we scored more on our opportunities earlier, we wouldn't have needed to do so much on offense in the fourth. However, it doesn't reflect well on the defense's ability to shut down the other team when the scoring gets heated up, even though it's possible that if the offense establishes a good lead, the opponent would be more desperate and make more mistakes.

It'll be nice if the offense can get back in that upper-20s range (even the 2016 ppg of 26.3) and the defense can at least stay around what it was (20.3 per game) or take it down a point or two.

 

[percyhoward]

It'll be nice if the offense can get back in that upper-20s range (even the 2016 ppg of 26.3) and the defense can at least stay around what it was (20.3 per game) or take it down a point or two.

Both units could stand to improve over 2018. Neither unit was top 12 (playoff level).

Includes regular season and playoffs
Dallas - points per drive
OFFENSE
2.10 (13th)
DEFENSE
2.00 (16th)

Translated into points per game at Dallas' average of 10 drives per game, that's 21.0 for the offense and 20.0 for the defense.

 

[gimmesix]

Both units could stand to improve over 2018. Neither unit was top 12 (playoff level).

Includes regular season and playoffs
Dallas - points per drive
OFFENSE
2.10 (13th)
DEFENSE
2.00 (16th)

Translated into points per game at Dallas' average of 10 drives per game, that's 21.0 for the offense and 20.0 for the defense.

If the offense improves, which likely means it is possessing the ball longer, it should help the defense improve.

However, I've been an advocate of doing everything we could to make the defense elite so it's less necessary to need the offense to score in the upper 20s. The reason I think the defense should be the focus is that I'm unsure that a Garrett-led offense can ever be elite ... just on the cusp where it could be put over the top by better scheming.

 

[percyhoward]

If the offense improves, which likely means it is possessing the ball longer, it should help the defense improve.

After the trade for Cooper, Dallas led the league in TOP per offensive drive, but ranked 29th in red zone TD%. The offense needs to find a way to finish drives, and the defense needs to find a way to finish games.

 

[gimmesix]

After the trade for Cooper, Dallas led the league in TOP per offensive drive, but ranked 29th in red zone TD%. The offense needs to find a way to finish drives, and the defense needs to find a way to finish games.

Do you know what the defense's points per game was during that stretch?

I think the Giants' game at the end of the season also skews the defensive performance some. There are times it definitely needed to do better, but there were only two regular-season games where we gave up more than 24 points.

 

[Kevinicus]

Not knocking this, but there's a lot that goes into it.

How many fourth-quarter game-winning situations did all the quarterbacks face? Dak has the most, but did he also have the most opportunities?

Second, how high is other QBs' rating in the fourth quarter? Because not all QBs get the same amount of GW opportunities, QB rating in the quarter can be a measure for how well they play when the game's on the line, even if they are ahead.

Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather our QB have the most than the least and be playing well when those opportunities present themselves, but it's hard to judge the value of the information without context.

Defense and all the other players are huge too.

This is just as useless amd dumb as attributing wins and losses to QBs.

 

[Sarge]

That means the Cowboys were losing in the 4th quarter 14 times,
I would rather Dak have zero game winning drives in the 4th quarter.

That’s exactly what I used to say when people bragged about Romo and his game winning drives.

 

[Silver N Blue]

Cheerleaders and the future of whataburger now that they are owned by a Chicago firm. Mostly cheerleaders.

Definitely mostly cheerleaders!

 

[HungryLion]

dak would not have that many fourth quarter comebacks had he not gotten off to a lot of slow starts that he has had. he needs to come out at the start of games better this year if this team is going to take the next step. the cowboys schedule is not real easy this year we have some teams this year can put up points and with him starting out slow like he does sometimes that will make it harder for this team two win ten or more games this coming season.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

with the talent we have had, why are we behind in the 4th quarter so often?