Bart Scott: "Dak Prescott hasn't even reached Alex Smith's level"

[TexasHillbilly]

Okay, fair. How about *not improving at the expected rate.

Fair enough. lol

 

[Ken]

So you think the previous year’s record is the only thing that dictates a horrible situation?

Didn't say that, my statement makes my point.

 

[sean10mm]

Where did you even get these stats? And it’s a skewed version of only half his stat line. Yes, take half his stats and then skew them and you may have an argument here.

It's not "a skewed version of only half his stat line", it's every stat off the Pro Football reference advanced passing table, you numbnuts. I copied it verbatim, so don't go calling me liar you absolute prick.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01.htm#all_passing_advanced

 

[percyhoward]

What is Dak’s excuse for yearly regressing QBR?

Prescott's first 25 games (2016-17)
102.4

middle 11 games -- 2017 at Atl to 2018 at Sea
74.2

last 15 games (all 2018)
99.9

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Prescott's first 25 games (2016-17)
102.4

middle 11 games -- 2017 at Atl to 2018 at Sea
74.2

last 15 games (all 2018)
99.9

QBR does not = antiquated Quarterback rating

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

It's not "a skewed version of only half his stat line", it's every stat off the Pro Football reference advanced passing table, you numbnuts.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01.htm#all_passing_advanced

Ah, resorting to insults so soon. I see the debate is moving into my favor. Let’s check some stats, as you claim ‘everystat improved’.

All stats are listed by 2016, then 2017, then 2018:

QBR is a substantially more involved stat than simple Quarterback Rating.
There are six steps to building QBR:[4]

• Each QB "action play" (passes, rushes, sacks, scrambles, or penalties attributable to the QB) is measured in terms of the expected points added (EPA)
• Adjust for the difficulty of each play. EPA is adjusted based on the type and depth of a pass, and whether the QB was pressured.
• If there is a completion, he only is credited for the typical number of yards after the catch (passer rating takes all yards into effect) based on the type and depth of the pass
• There is a discount on trash time, or a time where the score is out of reach near the end of the game.
• Opponent adjustment: More credit is given with tougher defenses and vice versa.
• QBR averages the adjusted EPA per play and transforms it to a 0 to 100 scale, with 50 being average.

His QBR progression
78.8
69.5
58.6

% of Throws that resulted in a TD
5.0
4.5
4.2. He became LESS of a TD strike QB even in a year where he had Cooper for 6 games.

% of dropbacks that result in a sack
5.2
6.1
9.6

YPA:
4.9
6.3
4.1. If your QB cannot exceed a 300+ carry back's YPA, he should never be scrambling in the first place.

Fumbles:
9
4
12 (led entire NFL

So in conclusion, his overall impact on the football game was worse, he was much more prone to accepting sacks, he had butterfingers like no other in the entire league, he somehow got slower or chose his scrambling opening much more poorly, and he was less likely to find the open WR for a TD.

This you claiming 'basically every stat improved'. No, most certainly they did not.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

Alex Smith is probably Dak's ceiling. Unfortunately, you can't teach accuracy to a guy as far along as Dak is, he just doesn't have it. As long as they build a Super Bowl team around him, he has a chance to win.

Disagree, Dak was a 4th round pick, as such was not considered "NFL ready", I don't see 3 years is always long enough for a quarterback to develop. His accuracy could be better, but it's not that bad, imo.

Too early to tell what his ceiling will be, I'm hopeful Kitna and Moore can improve Dak....

 

[percyhoward]

QBR does not = antiquated Quarterback rating

It's disappointing how people let themselves become indoctrinated by commercial entities trying to sell their product. The NFL came up with passer rating, and anybody can figure it with an online calculator. It has one of the highest correlations to wins of any individual stat. ESPN and PFF have their own rating/grading systems which they keep secret, so you can't figure it yourself. You have to access their content to find it, and then basically take their word for it.

In 2018, teams whose QB had a 100+ passer rating were 152-62-1.

 

[gjkoeppen]

Yes because I stand by what I said. I said strong arm doesnt just mean how far you can throw a football. Brett Favre had one of the strongest arms of all time but I bet you Mike Vick can throw further than him

Your guess work means zero, zip, nada, zilch. Those that actually know football on any of the football shows or pregame or during games haven't ever brought up a lack of arm strength with Prescott. In fact most have said the complete opposite. They say he has size, the ability to run and a strong arm. Maybe you should just take your Prescott hating blinders off and then you'll see he has a strong arm.
.

 

[HungryLion]

WOW!

You guys spent the last two years blaming the o-line, the receivers, the OC, etc etc etc to defend Dak and now blaming the supporting cast doesn't hold water. LOL

I wish their was a parallel universe where a young Smith played for the Cowboys so I could laugh at all the weak emotional rationalizations as you guys defend him for doing the same thing your ripping him for now.

I brought up the 2015 team because you compared them to Smith's early teams. SF got Smith because they were on a run of suck bad enough to get them the #1 pick. The Cowboys were on the rise coming off a blown call away from the NFCC. You are seriously arguing that the quality of the support system is meaningless to the success of the QB? That's a bold choice kid.

Smith went in to a horrible situation for a young QB. Dak went into a great situation for a young QB. Which by the way reinforces my 2015 team argument not weakens it.

Dak is bigger and better at the scrambling highlight stuff. Smith is much better out of the pocket and in passing in general. And always has been.

That’s a whole lot of generalization about what I supposedly did or did not do.

Perhaps you should focus on my individual arguments and points as opposed to lumping me in with others as blaming this that or the third which isn’t really true about me.

Your post also shows a lack of ability to understand what it was that I was saying. I readily stated that’s Dak had a better supporting cast. I then stated that you had to actually watch the players play and evaluate them individually. Rather than focus on those parts of my post, you decided to go on a baseless diatribe, and generalize my argument with the argument of other people over the past couple of years on this board.

Smith “always has been” better out of the pocket? Thanks for proving that you didn’t actually watch Smith when he was young, and/or don’t know what you’re talking about.

Please go on about how difference in supporting cast can account for the whopping 40 point discrepancy between Smith’s third year QB rating and Dak’s third year QB rating.

 

[WillieBeamen]

Your guess work means zero, zip, nada, zilch. Those that actually know football on any of the football shows or pregame or during games haven't ever brought up a lack of arm strength with Prescott. In fact most have said the complete opposite. They say he has size, the ability to run and a strong arm. Maybe you should just take your Prescott hating blinders off and then you'll see he has a strong arm.
.

Stop, you’re embarassing yourself


Dak does not have elite arm strength. You must be new to football or just slow in general if you think he has an elite arm.

His biggest homers wont even agree with that, so please just stop

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

It's disappointing how people let themselves become indoctrinated by commercial entities trying to sell their product. The NFL came up with passer rating, and anybody can figure it with an online calculator. It has one of the highest correlations to wins of any individual stat. ESPN and PFF have their own rating/grading systems which they keep secret, so you can't figure it yourself. You have to access their content to find it, and then basically take their word for it.

In 2018, teams whose QB had a 100+ passer rating were 152-62-1.

Because passer rating vaguely promotes positive QB play, good qbs often win with it. But implying a W/L record is solely on the QB is wrong. Teams win games, and lots of QBs without top passer ratings have won super bowls.

You say QBR is a commercial stat for selling a product by ESPN? Then why do Fox personalities swear by it? Passer Rating is an antiquated stat that doesn't care about a huge number of important things a QB does. That's not a smart decision to avoid the commercial stat to go with the one that's often wrong.

Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan. This is a list of QBs who have a lower career passer rating than Kirk Cousins. I'm not joking.

Based on passer rating, Tony Romo and Dak Prescott are the fifth and eighth greatest quarterbacks to ever live. Come on.

 

[WillieBeamen]

Because passer rating vaguely promotes positive QB play, good qbs often win with it. But implying a W/L record is solely on the QB is wrong. Teams win games, and lots of QBs without top passer ratings have won super bowls.

You say QBR is a commercial stat for selling a product by ESPN? Then why do Fox personalities swear by it? Passer Rating is an antiquated stat that doesn't care about a huge number of important things a QB does. That's not a smart decision to avoid the commercial stat to go with the one that's often wrong.

Based on passer rating, Tony Romo and Dak Prescott are the fifth and eighth greatest quarterbacks to ever live. Come on.

I was with you until you said this


You have to adjust for era due to the rule changes.

Go by # top-5 seasons of passer rating for each player and you will get a better idea of how they ranked amongst their peers

Dak was ranked:

3rd

18th

14th

In his 3 seasons

Romo was ranked:


5th

5th

8th

8th

N/A

4th

10th

8th

1st

N/A

N/A

 

[khiladi]

Dak on any of the teams Smith played on would be a nightmare for those fans.

If Dak has 3 winning seasons, so does Linehan, which Dak lovers claim was the problem of the offense.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

I was with you until you said this


You have to adjust for era due to the rule changes.

Go by # top-5 seasons of passer rating for each player and you will get a better idea of how they ranked amongst their peers

But it's another point for QBR, while they haven't gone that far back with it yet, it shouldn't need to be adjusted for era. Because it's about things that haven't changed, like negative players vs positive plays, sacks taken, third down conversion, penalties accrued.

 

[khiladi]

Dak is accurate because he doesn’t take risks. That is different than saying he’s an accurate passer. Even Darren Woodson admits it as such. Weeden threW like 72% here.

Formulas don’t take into account what is missed on the field. The stats don’t say teams play cover 1 and man on the outside with Dak as QB all day. This is where the term ‘bus driver’ comes from.

 

[gjkoeppen]

Stop, you’re embarassing yourself


Dak does not have elite arm strength. You must be new to football or just slow in general if you think he has an elite arm.

His biggest homers wont even agree with that, so please just stop

The ONLY people that question Prescott's arm strength are the certified Prescott haters. Many, many actual football people have never brought up a lack of arm strength of Prescott. So you and your Prescott haters club can say what you want but it doesn't change actual facts. There's a link on one of these threads that shows many of Prescott's passes of 30 or more yards, many of them while he was on the run or throwing off his back foot. Now if he didn't have any arm strength he wouldn't be able to throw the ball 30 or more yards down field off his back foot, but haters don't see that.
.

 

[khiladi]

The ONLY people that question Prescott's arm strength are the certified Prescott haters. Many, many actual football people have never brought up a lack of arm strength of Prescott. So you and your Prescott haters club can say what you want but it doesn't change actual facts. There's a link on one of these threads that shows many of Prescott's passes of 30 or more yards, many of them while he was on the run or throwing off his back foot. Now if he didn't have any arm strength he wouldn't be able to throw the ball 30 or more yards down field off his back foot, but haters don't see that.
.

The rate at which Dak throws them is in the bottom of the league. He just completes a decent percentage, because he doesn’t throw them often or in tight windows.

And Dak is garbage throwing off his back foot.

 

[Reality]

Wait ... does he mean downward to Alex Smith's level?

 

[CowboyRoy]

Nothing but facts spoken from an elite NFL defender in this short clip. Dak is a 20M/yr QB MAX.

Dak has been in the league 3 years and Smith what? 7?

Dumb comparison and a dumb conclusion.