History is a good teacher when it comes to predicting when an NFL head coach has the best chance of winning a Super Bowl with a team. The last 40 years, over 95% of the time, a coach winning a Super Bowl does it within the first 5 years of being hired. Last year, Andy Reid was an outlier- he was in his 7th season.
If you look at the history of SB winning coaches since 1980, all but two of them won a SB in their first 5 years as HC. The exceptions were Bill Cowher in 2006 and Andy Reid last year. That means only 2 of the last 40 SB winning HCs won a SB after being there more than 5 years. (Belichick won his first SB in his second season at NE)
Many of us have speculated that the MM hire was a “win now” hire. I hope so. Because the thing that eventually drove me crazy about Garrett (besides his low risk, vanilla decision-making) was Jerry hanging on to him for probably 4-5 seasons past when it was reasonable to expect anything else from him.
Today’s NFL head coaches have a shorter shelf life than in the days of Tom Landry. An NFL head coach has 5 years or less to get it done. Doug Pederson won a SB in his second year. Gary Kubiak won one in his first year at Denver.
Mike McCarthy knows how to win. We still don’t know what his first year roster will look like yet, but I’m thinking he needs to win big within 3 years. Jerry won’t be as patient as he was with his hand picked stepson. And that’s not a bad thing IMO.
Has anyone researched GETTING to the Super Bowl?
The 49ers did it last year, Shanahan's 3rd year.
Rams reached the big game in McVay's 2nd year.
Pederson, as you pointed out, won the SB in his 2nd year.
Dan Quinn took the Falcons to the big game in his 2nd year, losing to the Pats.
Ron Rivera took the Panthers up against the Broncos in his 5th season, losing that game to Gary Kubiak, who of course was in his very first year of coaching Denver.
That is the last five Super Bowls in a row.
The idea that Garrett needed more than 5 years to get this done is just not true, as you point out. Too many other teams out there are getting it done in 2-3 years or less, climbing to serious contention.
