The Cost of Not Signing Dak (lengthy)

gjkoeppen

gjkoeppen

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,703
Reaction score
3,327
csirl said:
If Dak stays, we wont win, so signing him is futile. 0% chance of a SB.

We are within touching distance of drafting an elite QB this year. Trading our 1st and next years 1st will get us one. It's not without it's risks, but the chances of success are much greater than with Dak - particularly since we can also sign a vet backup who's not that different to Dak for a few million a year.

People keep bringing up the Paxton Lynch draft class as a reason why not to draft, but the assessment of QBs fundamentally changed in scouting circles after that draft (less emphasis on gym shorts stuff). Since then the strike rate is very good. Look at this years playoffs. Full of recently drafted 1st round QBs who Dak fans have been slating over the past couple of years.

Look at Goff - one of the biggest whipping boys for Dak fans. Im not 100% sold on Goff. But, guess who's in the second round of the playoffs after wimning a road game with a broken thumb? That's leadership......and he's already won a NFC Championship.
Click to expand...







Just about everyone in the sporting world and most fans here have said the Cowboys biggest need is on defense. Yet here you are win your big plan to trade away the Cowboys 1st round pick and then also throwing next year's 1st round pick for a QB that has taken zero snaps in the NFL. How quickly you forget all the college QB's that prior to the draft were bragged up so much that turned out to be busts in the NFL. One of my favorite examples was one year the entire sporting world was bragging up 2 QB's saying there hasn't been two like those in the draft in a long time. The one most of the analysts and draft gurus though the player taken with the 2nd pick would have gone 1st. The player that did go 1st was Peyton Manning and the player that went 2nd was Ryan Leaf, otherwise known as a HUGE BUST. But before the draft the entire sporting world said he was going to be a big star in the NFL, that he had everything, size, arm strength and the ability to run if he was forced out of the pocket.

Every Super Bowl winning team has one thing in common, they all had a top 10 defense to go with their offense. So far Prescott and the Cowboys haven't had a top 10 defense so tell me where you got your crystal ball, crazy eight ball or Ouija board that told you that with a top 10 defense Prescott can't get the Cowboys another ring?
.
.
 
ItzKelz

ItzKelz

Well-Known Member
Messages
6,838
Reaction score
9,164
We could have had Dak for like 28 mil a year about 3 seasons ago. Now that Watson has signed a 40 mil a year contract Dak's representation can legitimately ask for the same contract because their careers almost mirror each other.

Jerry & Stephen messed this up and therefore messed up the salary cap. We do need Dak and this past season made that obvious to anyone dead or alive.
 
Flamma

Flamma

Well-Known Member
Messages
22,084
Reaction score
18,863
gjkoeppen said:
To try to dispute something and using some possibility that you truly don't believe would happen either isn't really a valid point.
.
.
Click to expand...

The reason I used that example is for the people that say, who else do we have if we don't pay him? If you're going to use that argument then money isn't an issue. I don't like that argument because it's dishonest. The truth of the matter is they believe he's worth every penny and paying him gives us the best chance to win a SB. I don't agree with that, but at least have the balls to say it. That is a valid opinion even though I disagree. But to just say, who else do we have? That's a ridiculous reason to pay someone.
 
Flamma

Flamma

Well-Known Member
Messages
22,084
Reaction score
18,863
fivetwos said:
I've seen him come up small same as you have.

I don't think he is great by any means but I think the offense is good enough to win with as is, and I don't want to throw away a capable QB and go for years looking for a replacement unless the roster needed a full gut...and I don't think it does.

Point though is that Jerry feels what I just wrote times a billion.

First, he thinks Dak is on the level of the top QBs, because he clearly overrates the talent of players he likes personally....

Secondly, even if he didn't think so much of Dak, no way he would sign up to go QB hunting for the next how ever long at his age.
Click to expand...

No the roster doesn't need a full rebuild. I agree. But we're not winning anything next year. This this team. So if he signs Dak how will he structure the contract? Probably back loaded as usual. He should probably front load it. Dak's biggest cap hit should be 2021. But will Jerry do it like that? Probably not.
 
CouchCoach

CouchCoach

Staff member
Messages
41,122
Reaction score
74,902
CowboysZone ULTIMATE Fan
csirl said:
If Dak stays, we wont win, so signing him is futile. 0% chance of a SB.

We are within touching distance of drafting an elite QB this year. Trading our 1st and next years 1st will get us one. It's not without it's risks, but the chances of success are much greater than with Dak - particularly since we can also sign a vet backup who's not that different to Dak for a few million a year.

People keep bringing up the Paxton Lynch draft class as a reason why not to draft, but the assessment of QBs fundamentally changed in scouting circles after that draft (less emphasis on gym shorts stuff). Since then the strike rate is very good. Look at this years playoffs. Full of recently drafted 1st round QBs who Dak fans have been slating over the past couple of years.

Look at Goff - one of the biggest whipping boys for Dak fans. Im not 100% sold on Goff. But, guess who's in the second round of the playoffs after wimning a road game with a broken thumb? That's leadership......and he's already won a NFC Championship.
Click to expand...
Not one of the QB's in this draft is elite at this point. We don't even know if any of them are as good as Prescott.

It is easy to get "young gun fever" with how Burrow and Herbert looked but give the NFL time to dissect their game and let's see where they are.

There are 6, at least, 1st round QB's in this draft and you can't get agreement from the people paid to evaluate them as to which ones might make good, not even great, NFL QB's.

You're bringing up Goff? Guess who has the top ranked defense and has to do less than any QB in the playoffs and the broken thumb assumes Prescott wouldn't do that as well? I'll put Prescott's toughness and willing to do whatever up against any QB in the game.

The strike rate is good because these QB's are better than Lynch and what scouts have changed how they evaluate QB's? The "gym shorts stuff" is passing accuracy drills and I can assure you they have not changed that.

It is really very simple. Either they settle for good or take a chance on great. Two of the young gun greats have unusual skill sets so I don't see a Mahomes or Jackson in this draft and both Lawrence and Fields have struggled against good defenses and Wilson and Lance haven't played against them. That leaves Jones and Trask that played against SEC D's but if you followed the college game this year, WR's were college open unlike any season I can recall.

The real effect on these young guns isn't a change in scouting and evaluation, it is a change in coaching. The offensive coaching staffs are making their offenses a lot more rookie QB friendly just like Dallas did for Prescott and when they unfriendlied in his soph season, he struggled like rookie QB's do.

I really don't know how much the posters that don't want Prescott have considered the track record with this brain trust with QB's. They could do worse than Prescott, a lot worse, as they tried to get Lynch and Cook before settling on him. Do you really want these people looking for that guy?
 

CowboysFaninHouston

CowboysFaninDC
Messages
31,524
Reaction score
17,881
Whyjerry said:
So by everyone becoming a QB guru, that includes you, right? I mean you just provided your opinion. As a guru of course. Holes? Let’s start with OT. DT. LB and more than one LB. Need another CB. Maybe 2 if Chido and Lewis both go. Need a S. You fill those with FA and the draft in case you forgot. Lawrence is surrounded by NFL talent too so I guess that downgrades him.
Click to expand...
yes, including me. but at least I often use empirical evidence. i never claim to be a guru on college QBs like some folks here do (ala @CATCH17). and the purpose of the message board is to have respectful discussion, rationally and logically (as some get highly emotional). just saying something without being able to make some kind of rational and logical evidence, that makes you a troll.

I don't think OT is necessary a hole. we do need to replace Smith sooner than later. so I am on record saying if we had a higher pick (middle of season), I would be all for taking Sewell otherwise I want all picks to be defense. I haven't done much research into OTs in this draft, so at this point I am not aware of anybody else that might be worth the pick. that's the only offensive position I would take.

I think we do need DT, and at least 2 LBs and another corner and a saftey. You state the obvious regarding fill in the positions through FA and draft, but I am opposed to go FA route this year, given we have 10 picks and we don't know how this team fits the Quinn scheme (I think Nolan's scheme was part of the problem). I rather give Quinn a year, let him implement his system. we go defense defense defense defense in draft, give it a year, see where we are and allow the cap to get back to its projected normal in 2022 and then target a FA or two. I have said it over and over and over again, you can't build a defense through FA. and the problem, concern I have is we haven't been good in defensive drafts in 15 years. 44 picks. one impact player ala Lawrence. one really good player ala Jones (which we let go). the rest are ho hum and risky players we picked. we have to figure that out, and have a good defensive draft to have a chance at being truly competitive.
 
cowboynut

cowboynut

Active Member
Messages
134
Reaction score
150
I think of the signing of Dak like Melvin Udall said and just put JJ in his place.

Melvin Udall: I think of a man. And I take away reason and accountability.
 

CowboysFaninHouston

CowboysFaninDC
Messages
31,524
Reaction score
17,881
DandyDon52 said:
He was being greedy.
That should tell you that he cares mostly about maximizing the amount of money he makes, not winning SB's.
Most of the cowboys players are like this, and on other teams too.

5 year deal would help the team, but he doesnt care about the team, just his money.

Mahomes signed a 10 year deal to help his team and they can manipulate that money over a long period to help them when needed.
Mahomes likes to win.

If dak wanted to win a SB, he would play 1 more year on tag, then go to another team with a chance to win SB.
But he wont, he will stay here because he just wants money lots of it.
Click to expand...
all of them are greedy specially for their first contract.....we can say, he quietly played and improved and led this team on a 4th rounder contract. never holding out (ala zeke). contract discussions are business. and business is business and you can't get emotional about business. Even Brady got top contract after his rookie year. its only after that he gave friendly hometown discount. plus Brady's wife is super loaded, so his situation is different than others.

and Mahomes signed a 10 year 500M contract. the average is above today's 35-38M and now 40M QB market. but in the future 50M will be a bargain. plus, I am sure it will get reworked, multiple time and will end up being a bargain. and plus, outside of mahome, a generational talent, the rest are on 3,4 year contract. his 10 year contract was not the norm. it was the exception.

Plus, you have to remember, wilson, goff, wentz, mahomes all signed a new contract while they were under contract, so in essence they got a boat load of money a year or two in advance of their contract ending.....that's bonus money. I rather have cash today, than two years from now....from a "business" perspective I take money up front, deliver later any day of the week. :)
Dak's contract had ended and thus negotiations were different.

I also think Jerry made a fundamental mistake. Jerry wanted a 5th year, mostly to have a lot of cap room available in 2024 and also for cap manipulation....he could have given Dak his 4 year deal, pay out less money (5 year deal had more gauranteed money) and give himself an out in case it didn't work out, with less headache and if it did work out, then he could have just tagged Dak in 2024, which would have been calculated based on 2023 salaries and in essence still have a good deal on his QB....it would have been a win win, the money would have been similar (given I expected them to rework the contract for cap management).

I disagree that Dak doesn't want to win a superbowl. that's a trollish conjecture on your part. and do you seriously believe that if Jerry doesn't Tag Dak, he won't go to another team? he will just come back and say give me the money?
 

CowboysFaninHouston

CowboysFaninDC
Messages
31,524
Reaction score
17,881
ninja said:
@Hawkeye19 You bring up some good points about Dak being a leader and the team rallies around him. Problem is that they have had 5 years and not met expectations. Does Dak have what it takes to elevate his play to carry the team? So far, the answer is no. He can't even elevate his play in the 1st half of games.

QBs do not play in a vacuum. The more money paid to a QB, the less money available for other players. What is the difference between overpaying Dak at $37M versus paying a Dalton or some other QB $10M and using $27M on a few other positions. Yes, Dak is better than Dalton. How much is debatable. The team is better paying Dalton $10M and getting 3 other good players at $9M each.

Paying Dak $37M is putting too many eggs in one basket. Dak had the team at 1-3 with a gift win courtesy of a hapless Atlanta team. If Dak gets hurt for a few games this coming season, the team is toast because there is not enough money spread around for such a rainy day. No money for other players to pick up the slack.

Dak is mediocre to good. Usually, mediocre to bad in the 1st half of games and Good to very good in the 2nd half. It all averages out to average. A team that pays an overall average QB $37M will have a ceiling of average. Average is not going to win SBs.

Which other QBs are available to choose from? What is Dak's value on the open market?

Best way forward in my opinion is to let Dak test the open market and see if the Cowboys will match his highest offer. Fair to all. If Dak can't get $30M from another team, why should the Cowboys overpay? Cowboys overpaid Dak this year and got absolutely nothing in return.
Click to expand...
although your argument sounds logical, it has a few points you miss.

There is a huge drop off in play between Dak and Dalton. If you disagree with that then you are just being a troll with your posts....given I assume you are logical then we are going to get a huge drop off in play between Dak and Dalton, how would you spend the money to compensate for that drop off in play? the QB is the most impactful player on the offensive side, diminishing that, will greatly diminish the entire offense. and which player is available in FA that you would sign that would be impactful and raise the level of defensive play to compensate for the loss of the QB?

secondly, despite the 32M tag on dak this year, we had 7 of the largest position contracts on the team this year (Cooper, Martin, Smith, Smith, Zeke, Collins, Lawrence). so the 32M number didn't hamper the team from having large contracts. You may say that then we didn't have enough money to sign impactful defensive FAs and signed the likes of Poe, etc....but the problem is that we had/have bad evaluation process of defensive players. for the money we paid McCoy, Poe, Worley, Griffin we could have kept jones. Givne none of those players made it past mid season and we had equivalent of those players and better on the team already. who evaluated these players? where did they get their evaluations from? some fantasy football board!!!....

so given we have 8 large contracts on the team already, how many more do we want? how are we going to build a defense through FA? which players are available? how much do they want? will they be worth the money? the problem is not Dak's money, the problem is the player evaluation process on the team. why is it that we have so many good players on offense, can draft a lot of good offensive players, but continuously miss on the defensive side? who was the last truly impactful player we drafted on defense that would be considered elite? how man of those have we drafted in the past 10, 15 years?

and Dak is a top 10 QB. and your last statement has been debunked many times, given you perhaps are using the infamous eye test. the first half vs. second half is no different than any other team in the league. so its a false illogical statement by Dak detractors, given they expect Dak and offense to score on every possession in the first half, because the defense couldnt' make stops....I have never heard any Dak detractor claim defensive culpability in any of the losses we have had. its always Dak, only Dak and nobody but Dak....someone even claimed (no lie) that if Dak played better, the rush defense would improve!!! (I am still trying to figure that one out).
 
gjkoeppen

gjkoeppen

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,703
Reaction score
3,327
Flamma said:
The reason I used that example is for the people that say, who else do we have if we don't pay him? If you're going to use that argument then money isn't an issue. I don't like that argument because it's dishonest. The truth of the matter is they believe he's worth every penny and paying him gives us the best chance to win a SB. I don't agree with that, but at least have the balls to say it. That is a valid opinion even though I disagree. But to just say, who else do we have? That's a ridiculous reason to pay someone.
Click to expand...





Here's something those of you that don't want to get Prescott resigned I think you've forgotten. The players, the entire team, thinks Prescott is their leader. What will not signing Prescott do to their faith in this team if they don't sign their leader? Will they start to think if they don't resign Prescott when my contract is will they just left me walk. Will free agents think if I sign with Dallas how long before they decide to get rid of me and decide not to sign? There are these things to consider besides Prescott's playing ability.
.
.
 

CowboysFaninHouston

CowboysFaninDC
Messages
31,524
Reaction score
17,881
buybuydandavis said:
We should not be paying extra for any Dallas starting QB. Period. Jerry brings *huge* value outside the contract itself. Two top NFL Announcers - Troy Aikman, Tony Romo. Do they have anything in particular in common?

Jerry makes playing for the Cowboys a marketing gold mine, and for no position more than QB, and that should be taken into account in contract negotiations.

QBs who don't understand that are the wrong QBs for us. They are *bad value* relative to QBs who have competent business managers.

I've thought that the QB market has been overpriced for years. QBs last longer, play older, and come out of college more prepared to play. Greater supply of QBs, same 32 starter demand. Price should be going down.

As GM, I'd be trying to churn mobile QBs on their rookie contracts. McCarthy is supposed to be a QB guru. Let him show us the magic. When you're willing to run your QB, he can just bring more value on the field. A lot more. 40mil extra for the rest of the team. 20% more. I think both Tom Brady and Drew Brees are playing for 25mil. The kind of guys to tide you over while you develop QB draft picks.
Click to expand...
Can you Gaurantee they would get marketing dollars? that has nothing to do with Football. keep the businesses separate...

and the QB market is what it is. the MARKET sets the value. and at some point, the market will eventually get the cost under control....

btw, more QBs fail in NFL coming out of college than succeed. the statement that they come out more prepared doesn't make sense where more than 80% fail in the NFL. so there is no more greater supply of QBs than it was 10, 15, 20, 25 years ago. that's why the price isn't going down, that alone should tell you.....

you approach makes no sense. both Brees and Brady are 40+. last hurrah. and they have had several large contracts in their career (20+ years). both of them took NFL Market value contracts after their rookie contracts. if you want to compare, then compare the contract to market value of QBs then to contract and market value of QBs now. that's comparing apples and oranges.
 
CouchCoach

CouchCoach

Staff member
Messages
41,122
Reaction score
74,902
CowboysZone ULTIMATE Fan
DandyDon52 said:
He was being greedy.
That should tell you that he cares mostly about maximizing the amount of money he makes, not winning SB's.
Most of the cowboys players are like this, and on other teams too.

5 year deal would help the team, but he doesnt care about the team, just his money.

Mahomes signed a 10 year deal to help his team and they can manipulate that money over a long period to help them when needed.
Mahomes likes to win.

If dak wanted to win a SB, he would play 1 more year on tag, then go to another team with a chance to win SB.
But he wont, he will stay here because he just wants money lots of it.
Click to expand...
How was he being greedy?

Comparing Mahomes deal is night v day and that deal will get changed well before the 5th year, if he continues playing as he is. Taking 45M off the cap is hardly helping his team but he understands that Hill and Kelce are just as important to his success and without Reid, he is not that superstar we see.

Why is Prescott greedy and the others aren't?
 

CowboysFaninHouston

CowboysFaninDC
Messages
31,524
Reaction score
17,881
Hadenough said:
Im not sold on Prescott as being good enough talent wise to lead this team to a NFC Championship game. He one of the best when it comes to pounding bad teams but his true colors come out when things get tight. The thing about Dak is you cant look at stats with him because he has really poured it on against the bad teams in the NFC east. Thats changing though and those teams are getting better. Dak has been in the league 5 years and has one playoff win that could be credited to Zekes tremendous game. I just dont see Dak winning the big games. And we all have gotten tired of hearing the excuse about the defense. The times when they have shown up Prescott is MIA! Dominant defenses in the NFL are rare in todays game. Its up to the QB to put together long methodical 15 play drives and score TDs to help out the defense. Dak isnt worth what the market dictates and he has one helluva lot of nerve trying to hold the Cowboys hostage. I know what will happen when they pay Dak and for those who dont know just look at the Vikings. Cousins and Dak are about the same player.
Click to expand...
his career record against winning teams is 11-11. Wilson 26-21, Roth 51-39, Brady 70-40...Rodgers 32-39, stafford 7-56, brees 49-65, Ryan 28-43, Dalton 21-32, Watson 4-7, Tannehil 15-24, Wentz 9-14, Eli 32-77.

and when you look at recent records, its even worse for many across the board, inclduing wilson, roth, brady.
 

CowboysFaninHouston

CowboysFaninDC
Messages
31,524
Reaction score
17,881
fivetwos said:
I've seen him come up small same as you have.

I don't think he is great by any means but I think the offense is good enough to win with as is, and I don't want to throw away a capable QB and go for years looking for a replacement unless the roster needed a full gut...and I don't think it does.

Point though is that Jerry feels what I just wrote times a billion.

First, he thinks Dak is on the level of the top QBs, because he clearly overrates the talent of players he likes personally....

Secondly, even if he didn't think so much of Dak, no way he would sign up to go QB hunting for the next how ever long at his age.
Click to expand...
we saw this year the offense wasn't good enough with trash like Dalton....in fact against average and good teams we struggled offensively mightily. Dalton did beat three teams with 4 wins and their back up QBs playing, with help of 9 turnovers....if you can gaurantee me that we will play 10 4 win teams next year playing their back up QBs, then I am on board...
 
Flamma

Flamma

Well-Known Member
Messages
22,084
Reaction score
18,863
gjkoeppen said:
Here's something those of you that don't want to get Prescott resigned I think you've forgotten. The players, the entire team, thinks Prescott is their leader. What will not signing Prescott do to their faith in this team if they don't sign their leader? Will they start to think if they don't resign Prescott when my contract is will they just left me walk. Will free agents think if I sign with Dallas how long before they decide to get rid of me and decide not to sign? There are these things to consider besides Prescott's playing ability.
.
.
Click to expand...

I really couldn't care less about the players faith in the team. If Prescott walks the team isn't doing anything good until they can find a suitable replacement. This is true with or without their faith.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top