The Cost of Not Signing Dak (lengthy)

[csirl]

Can someone explain what Daks trade value is and how they calculated it?.

Some points to ponder.

What happens when a potential trade partner wants him to work out? How much of a discount is there for not passing a physical (which is unlikely over the next 2-3 months).

If he's tagged to trade, how much is his value reduced by it being a 1 year rental? Wont GMs be thinking "......Im paying him 35m to rehab/get back from serious injury.....then he dissappears at the end of the season, fully fit, as a free agent...."

 

[csirl]

P.s my post above.

Picture this. Im the GM of a team with QB issues and I bring in 4 x QBs who are likely on the block.

Stafford and Watson pass their physicals and do impressive workouts.

Dak and Wentz fail the physicals.

Who am I going with?

 

[gjkoeppen]

Can someone explain what Daks trade value is and how they calculated it?.

Some points to ponder.

What happens when a potential trade partner wants him to work out? How much of a discount is there for not passing a physical (which is unlikely over the next 2-3 months).

If he's tagged to trade, how much is his value reduced by it being a 1 year rental? Wont GMs be thinking "......Im paying him 35m to rehab/get back from serious injury.....then he dissappears at the end of the season, fully fit, as a free agent...."

First off the doctors and trainers have said that he'll be completely ready to go for next season. In fact there was just a report this week on how well he's doing and how far ahead he is in his rehab.

Next if between now and the day before free agency starts and no contract is signed and the Cowboys then offer the tag again, whether Prescott signs it or not he can not have any contact with another team. While the tag offer is out there and not signed, the Cowboys even if they wanted to which I very seriously doubt they do, they can not trade him. The tag amount for the 2021 season will be about 37.2 mil.

Lastly unless you or anyone else has a crystal ball, crazy eight ball or a Ouija board to determine what the other 31 team may be will to give up in the very very remote chance that the Cowboys were willing to trade him, there's no way of knowing what his trade value is. Anything written here will be just speculation at best.

A couple years after Gil Brandt left the Cowboys he said there are 4 values for every player in the NFL.

1. The value a team places on one for their players and what the least they would accept in trade.
2. The value the other teams place on another team's player and what the most they would give up in trade for him.
3. The value a fan of the team a player that is being trade and what they think he is worth in trade.
4. The value fans of other teams think their team should give up to trade for a player.

He went on to say that #3 and #4 seldom if ever are the same as what #1 and #2 have.
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[Blitzen]

TLDR: Letting Dak walk hurts this franchise a lot more than it helps us, in both the short and long term.

I have gone back and forth on the Dak-Dilemma for months. I am not a Dak hater. I consider myself a Dak-realist. He is not "elite" in my opinion (Mahommes, Rodgers are the only 2 QBs this year that qualify as elite in my estimation). Nor is he "mediocre" or "average" as many on this site claim. He is good. At times, he is really good. At other times, his play is borderline average.

And so we have arrived at a crossroads. To pay or not to pay? 2 years ago-- fans were arguing on whether or not he was worth 30 mil per year. Many said "not worth more than 25". Then Wentz and Goff signed-- and the needle moved to 34-35 mil per, and the counter was "not worth more 30". Then Mahommes and Watson signed, and the conversation is now 40 mil per and the counter is now "not worth more than 35". The simple truth is the QB market has been drastically reset over the past 2 years, and the cost of good QB play has significantly risen. Had we signed Dak 2 years ago for 30 mil, we would be in the middle of a sweetheart of a deal. But I digress....

If you let him walk... you gain cap space, yes-- but what do you lose? I've been thinking about the following items:

1. Fractured Locker-room. The players love him. He is the unquestioned leader and this is "Dak's team". If we choose to not pay him, the move will NOT be well received by the players and a riff occurs and eyebrows are raised. Add to that the pressure you put on Dak's replacement to fill his shoes on the field, and with his buddies off it-- and you have a bad situation ready to explode.

2. You lose top 10 level QB play on the field. No-- he is not top 3. But he is not middling either. IMO-- he is trending up, and his quality of play is top 10 in the NFL-- and that will win a lot of games. If you let him leave-- how do you replace his production?

3. Leadership intangibles. Related to point #1 for sure-- but Dak may have the best leadership skill of any QB in the NFL right now. Yes, Rodgers is a HOF player, but some of his teammates hate the guy. Mahommes is a stud and well-liked-- but Dak just is a natural born leader. He says the right things. He does the right things. He is football smart, but he has a high emotional IQ as well. Yes, you could trade up to draft a rookie-- but what you might gain (stress "might") in the football talent category, you more than likely lose a TON when it comes to leadership and "face of the franchise" factor.

4. You stand to lose Rep/Cred. If you let Dak walk, and he gets signed by another team, and hoists a Lombardi-- you will forever be the FO that "couldn't get a deal done with a high caliber franchise QB". Ouch. This franchise is already a laughing stock-- but that would take things to a new low-- especially if the "solution" they bring in to replace Dak doesn't pan out.

Therefore-- the best thing for the entire franchise is to sign Dak to a 4-5 year deal. We will overpay. But the number most fans are comfortable with paying him has already moved from 25 million per year 2 years ago, to 35 million per year now. As a fan-- Are you really willing to let him walk and potentially suffer the fallout over a 5 million per year difference?

Blow the core up and start over in my opinion. Signing Dak to a long term to me all but guarantees 6 to 10 win seasons for the next 4 to 5 years with divisional round the ceiling unless a top team has an injury to one of their top 3 players at the right time.

Tag Dak and float him to the Colts or Commanders for number 1 picks and other round picks. They can negotiate a long term contact as part of the trade to ensure multiple years of control to balance the loss of picks. See what you can get for Tyron, Amari, and Zeke. Cut Jaylon and make it look like an accident.

I can see another decade of blaming coaches and accessory players otherwise and middling play where this team continues to dominate 6 win or less squads and repetitively coming up short against teams with 10 or more wins.

 

[Captain-Crash]

no cost, just more money to build a defense that wins games in the NFL.

 

[ItzKelz]

it takes 2 to make a deal, and dak has turned down all offers, so saying they could have had him at 28 is pure speculation, and probably false.
I think dak intended all along to play on tag twice then get a big deal. Just imo.

Now your saying jones boys should to correct the first mistake of not getting dak signed earlier, to making another mistake and over pay him on a short deal ??

We do need Dak and this past season made that obvious to anyone dead or alive........sure they probably would have made playoffs in this really bad division.
But then would be eliminated quickly. So what good would dak have really done ?? not much, just make the team draft in a lower position.

Dak isnt going to lead this team to a SB, he isnt good enough, and the team isnt good enough.
Even if dallas traded dak for mahomes or rodgers, dallas still wont make it to a SB.

Dak will provide more entertainment, so if thats why you want to pay him 40 mil a year then fine pay him.

I think they will sign him unless dak wants to play on the tag again, and I hope they do because
1. he is entertaining
2. they are likely to get into playoffs, which is fun even if they are one and done.
3.it means jones boys will never get a SB trophy, and probably not past the div round in near future. I like that.
4.it means I get to see them looking all depressed in the booth during losses.
5.it means they will be hard pressed to sign future good players, and limited to cheap def FA so no great defense can be built.

Dallas will suffer same fate as houston lol signed watson, couldnt afford hopkins and could not even make the playoffs.
They have their qb, but what good does it do them?? nothing just more entertaining, and for houston they were not even that entertaining.

At the first of year dak managed 17 points against a good rams defense, after that they played some weak defensive teams and scored a lot,
and a lot of yds passing , # 1 offense but lost every game except the atlanta miracle game. and that is what dallas will be in near future.
They will do good against the weaker teams, then fold in playoffs when facing the actual good teams.

Definitely takes 2 to make a deal but my claim is not false at all. The Jones family in regards to Dak has been trying to get a home town discount. The problem is that every season the price tag goes up on QB. Even if Jerry and Stephen offer more the next offseason they are still asking for a home town discount. What we found out last year is Dak said he will take that discount if they agreed to a 4 year deal instead of a 5 year deal; which from the mouth of Stephen Jones was baffling to the Jones family.

What is likely to happen this offseason is that the new floor for negotiations from Daks representation will be Watsons contract. Of course if Jerry and Stephen want Dak to take a home town discount he will likely ask for a 4 year deal or even a 3 year deal.

 

[OmerV]

Of course he was OK with 4,, that was the entire issue

That's what I was explaining to the guy I responded to.

 

[DandyDon52]

Definitely takes 2 to make a deal but my claim is not false at all. The Jones family in regards to Dak has been trying to get a home town discount. The problem is that every season the price tag goes up on QB. Even if Jerry and Stephen offer more the next offseason they are still asking for a home town discount. What we found out last year is Dak said he will take that discount if they agreed to a 4 year deal instead of a 5 year deal; which from the mouth of Stephen Jones was baffling to the Jones family.

What is likely to happen this offseason is that the new floor for negotiations from Daks representation will be Watsons contract. Of course if Jerry and Stephen want Dak to take a home town discount he will likely ask for a 4 year deal or even a 3 year deal.

Well owners are starting to wise up on this market pricing stuff, and now that the cap is actually going down , the league situation is different.
The owners lost a ton of money this year, and there is no guarantee things will be different next season, could be limited seating again next season.

Dak better be realistic to the current state of things, or he will play on the tag again.

 

[CouchCoach]

Well owners are starting to wise up on this market pricing stuff, and now that the cap is actually going down , the league situation is different.
The owners lost a ton of money this year, and there is no guarantee things will be different next season, could be limited seating again next season.

Dak better be realistic to the current state of things, or he will play on the tag again.

The TV money still covers them. This pretty well breaks it down.

How The NFL Makes Money: TV, Tickets, and Sponsorships (investopedia.com)

 

[Jake]

Well owners are starting to wise up on this market pricing stuff, and now that the cap is actually going down , the league situation is different. The owners lost a ton of money this year, and there is no guarantee things will be different next season, could be limited seating again next season.

Dak better be realistic to the current state of things, or he will play on the tag again.

So he makes $37 million and has even more leverage in 2022? I think he could live with that.

A third tag would cost something like $54 million - never gonna happen - so Dak would become a free agent in 2022.

 

[DandyDon52]

The TV money still covers them. This pretty well breaks it down.

How The NFL Makes Money: TV, Tickets, and Sponsorships (investopedia.com)

the tv money covers the cap, but now with empty stadiums the owners want to reduce the cap and take what they lost out of that money.
So until people can fill stadiums again, the cap will not rise, and it will stay down.

 

[Jake]

the tv money covers the cap, but now with empty stadiums the owners want to reduce the cap and take what they lost out of that money.
So until people can fill stadiums again, the cap will not rise, and it will stay down.

It won't stay down for long. NFL TV contracts expire after next season. There's a bidding war in process.

NFL’s monster TV deals with networks, Amazon will surpass $100B

 

[FVSTONE]

Dak showed us all in his rookie season that his future was bright and that he could lead this team to bigger and better things. Everyone jumped on his bandwagon for good reason, we all saw a good looking, likeable young man with SUPER STAR written across his chest. Then the injuries started to plie up on the offensive line and Dak's star started to lose some of it's brightness. Now the Cowboys are at a point where they need to make a decision, sign or don't sign a QB who has struggled is recent years to beat any team with an average record. Sign or don't sign a QB who has shown the last couple of years the inability to start fast at the beginning of his games. As I stated earlier, Dak is shakier than a hairless dog in 20 degree weather. It seems like every game the Cowboys are down double digits in the 1st quarter because this offense's struggles. Sign or don't sign a QB who's yardage numbers have been piling up because opponents are jumping into their prevent defenses in the 1st quarter. Sign or don't sign a QB who appears to get a long with everyone in this organization, a QB who has stepped into the leadership role and has taken it to another level. Sign or don't sign a QB who had an opportunity to sign a great deal, but was over taken by greed and the thought of a bigger and better deal 4 yrs from now EVEN before he thought about signing the deal that was staring him straight in the face. Dak has shown all of us that he's capable of leading this team, what he hasn't shown us is he capable of quarterbacking it.

 

[ItzKelz]

Well owners are starting to wise up on this market pricing stuff, and now that the cap is actually going down , the league situation is different.
The owners lost a ton of money this year, and there is no guarantee things will be different next season, could be limited seating again next season.

Dak better be realistic to the current state of things, or he will play on the tag again.

Down now and expected to go up later. They know this and its pretty common knowledge to even the common fan that the new TV deals for the NFL to include the addition to streaming services is the pay day that the players are waiting on hence the shorter contracts that players are demanding.