The Cost of Not Signing Dak (lengthy)

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Ask all 32 GMs if they could have Lamar or Dak next season who would they pick...I would be surprised if more than one (Jerry) picked Dak. Lamar isn't exactly Tim Tebow throwing the ball and he was the league MVP last season.

then get ready to be surprised....and in a couple of years, perhaps even next year Lamar is going to be watching from sidelines. its happens to all running QBs. they get injured....you pay your QB to pass not run. that's why they get drafted. Jackson is a very average passer. good defenses will neutralize him in the playoffs and good defenses tend to make it into the playoffs.....and go deep.

I never compared Lamar to Tebow. I never thought tebow was anything close to an NFL QB. so not sure if the comparison is fair. he is more like Randal Cunningham, except not as good a passer.

 

[cern]

What's happening is that it's all getting laid on the QB's contract when it's the collective effect of the RB, WR, DE and LB's contracts that are creating this cap issue.

The real issue is that some just don't feel Prescott is deserving of a top 5 QB contract because he's not top 5 and that has nothing to do with it.

The NFL went from 20M being a shocker right past 30M to 40+M now in a very short period of time. Mahomes did not set the ceiling because it's not set by the best QB, it is set by what teams have to pay to keep their QB. Allen is going to be a shocker and Murray and even Mayfield and I'd take Prescott over him all day long.

No different than any other NFL team. The owners created their own monster. Who doesn't like pie? NFL owners.

 

[OmerV]

Thanks for highlighting why I have now blocked you for failing to understand the relevance.

lol, well the fact you are arguing something he never disputed and are hoping to avoid having that pointed out by blocking me doesn't really upset me much.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

TLDR: Letting Dak walk hurts this franchise a lot more than it helps us, in both the short and long term.

I have gone back and forth on the Dak-Dilemma for months. I am not a Dak hater. I consider myself a Dak-realist. He is not "elite" in my opinion (Mahommes, Rodgers are the only 2 QBs this year that qualify as elite in my estimation). Nor is he "mediocre" or "average" as many on this site claim. He is good. At times, he is really good. At other times, his play is borderline average.

And so we have arrived at a crossroads. To pay or not to pay? 2 years ago-- fans were arguing on whether or not he was worth 30 mil per year. Many said "not worth more than 25". Then Wentz and Goff signed-- and the needle moved to 34-35 mil per, and the counter was "not worth more 30". Then Mahommes and Watson signed, and the conversation is now 40 mil per and the counter is now "not worth more than 35". The simple truth is the QB market has been drastically reset over the past 2 years, and the cost of good QB play has significantly risen. Had we signed Dak 2 years ago for 30 mil, we would be in the middle of a sweetheart of a deal. But I digress....

If you let him walk... you gain cap space, yes-- but what do you lose? I've been thinking about the following items:

1. Fractured Locker-room. The players love him. He is the unquestioned leader and this is "Dak's team". If we choose to not pay him, the move will NOT be well received by the players and a riff occurs and eyebrows are raised. Add to that the pressure you put on Dak's replacement to fill his shoes on the field, and with his buddies off it-- and you have a bad situation ready to explode.

2. You lose top 10 level QB play on the field. No-- he is not top 3. But he is not middling either. IMO-- he is trending up, and his quality of play is top 10 in the NFL-- and that will win a lot of games. If you let him leave-- how do you replace his production?

3. Leadership intangibles. Related to point #1 for sure-- but Dak may have the best leadership skill of any QB in the NFL right now. Yes, Rodgers is a HOF player, but some of his teammates hate the guy. Mahommes is a stud and well-liked-- but Dak just is a natural born leader. He says the right things. He does the right things. He is football smart, but he has a high emotional IQ as well. Yes, you could trade up to draft a rookie-- but what you might gain (stress "might") in the football talent category, you more than likely lose a TON when it comes to leadership and "face of the franchise" factor.

4. You stand to lose Rep/Cred. If you let Dak walk, and he gets signed by another team, and hoists a Lombardi-- you will forever be the FO that "couldn't get a deal done with a high caliber franchise QB". Ouch. This franchise is already a laughing stock-- but that would take things to a new low-- especially if the "solution" they bring in to replace Dak doesn't pan out.

Therefore-- the best thing for the entire franchise is to sign Dak to a 4-5 year deal. We will overpay. But the number most fans are comfortable with paying him has already moved from 25 million per year 2 years ago, to 35 million per year now. As a fan-- Are you really willing to let him walk and potentially suffer the fallout over a 5 million per year difference?

100% correct

 

[75boyz]

I never said Elite QBs need strong supporting cast to be good. in fact I agreed with that. I just think there are at most 2 or 3 Elite QBs, with everybody else being good and the good ones know how to use the weapons they have and maximize them. the good ones produce with good supporting cast.

Jones in KC was huge. He was drafted by them and there was no way they would let him leave. in fact teams will hold on to their own top players and FA and not allow them to hit the market. That's why its extremely difficult to build through FA since injured, old or headcases hit the FA market.
KC signed Honey badger and he was their one big FA signing, so they didn't build their defense through high priced FAs, they drafted well and sign one big key player, they had a couple of key mid level FAs that they evaluated correctly and signed, where we tend to miss on those evaluations. we signed several mid level FAs, but they were all bad to awful.

I like Dak more than Lamar Jackson, because I don't like running QBs. I like Dak better than tannehill, given Tannehill threw for less than 100 yards, twice in the playoffs and they won because of Henry and their defense and great coaching. Tannehill is the ultimate definition of a bus driver. I never liked Cousins, that was Minn. mistake signing him, agree with you there. Mayfield is inaccurate, throws too many interceptions and still has problems reading defenses. he had an average year this year, where they told him we don't need you to win games, just don't make mistakes.....their strong running game and their defense is what drove their team this year. not mayfield. he is not able to lift anyone around him and given he had Landry and Beckam and Hooper, their passing attack was very average this year and last year.

based on what you just posted, it seems you are advocating for us to tank. thus perhaps we should start trading all our assets to accumulate draft picks, hoping to have top 2,3 pick and the right QB is available for us to draft...

I don't see any better alternative to Dak, not in the draft where we are picking this year and the available QBs and not in FA (oh God please tell me you are not advocating for Dalton).

No, not a Dalton guy. Told ya that on a previous post last week when I mentioned how similar our views on the defensive side of the ball was.
I'm now kinda borrowing from Aviano90's take here but I would not mind losing 2 to 3 years in a row. Not intentionally or tanking. Just unfortunate bad seasons based on injury or whatever(similar to this year) but maybe even a couple more losses. So I'd like a total rebuild requiring 2 to 3 consecutive losing seasons which results in drafting top 5 to 7 talent from those years and take it from there. Expansion style. No tanking or losing on purpose but losing nonetheless so that it can be re-booted all over from the ground up.

Did I mention this includes with a coach not named McCarthy or Moore?

Or even more miraculous even...

"JERRY SELLS COWBOYS" lol

But yeah, back to reality. This quarter century's status quo will never improve over mediocrity if drastic changes to leadership at different levels never changes.
Winning in spite of GMing, Coaching and QBing is just not attainable or realistic and that is the current challenge this team faces.

 

[blueblood70]

then get ready to be surprised....and in a couple of years, perhaps even next year Lamar is going to be watching from sidelines. its happens to all running QBs. they get injured....you pay your QB to pass not run. that's why they get drafted. Jackson is a very average passer. good defenses will neutralize him in the playoffs and good defenses tend to make it into the playoffs.....and go deep.

I never compared Lamar to Tebow. I never thought tebow was anything close to an NFL QB. so not sure if the comparison is fair. he is more like Randal Cunningham, except not as good a passer.

hes tad better then Tebow a chit ton faster running the ball and his comp is 100% Mike Vick..

 

[Swagger]

No, not a Dalton guy. Told ya that on a previous post last week when I mentioned how similar our views on the defensive side of the ball was.
I'm now kinda borrowing from Aviano90's take here but I would not mind losing 2 to 3 years in a row. Not intentionally or tanking. Just unfortunate bad seasons based on injury or whatever(similar to this year) but maybe even a couple more losses. So I'd like a total rebuild requiring 2 to 3 consecutive losing seasons which results in drafting top 5 to 7 talent from those years and take it from there. Expansion style. No tanking or losing on purpose but losing nonetheless so that it can be re-booted all over from the ground up.

Did I mention this includes with a coach not named McCarthy or Moore?

Or even more miraculous even...

"JERRY SELLS COWBOYS" lol

But yeah, back to reality. This quarter century's status quo will never accomplish more than mediocrity if drastic changes to leadership at different levels changes.
Winning in spite of GMing, Coaching and QBing is just not attainable or realistic and that is the current challenge this team faces.

True.
Your last sentence sums it up and longer term it's a losing recipe as has already been shown.

 

[Swagger]

hes tad better then Tebow a chit ton faster running the ball and his comp is 100% Mike Vick..

Completion % is jazzed up especially when comparing someone like Dan Marino with Dak Prescott in those terms given the differences in the game for starters.

But...Tebow 48% and Lamar 64% completion. Come on man let's be serious.

 

[75boyz]

OK guys, time for me to start my weekend. I've got a brand new Grandbaby Boy to go see for the first time.

Everybody, have a great weekend but be safe. Be careful and have a great weekend!

Congratulations! My first and only(so far)grand daughter turns ONE this Sunday.

 

[TwoCentPlain]

@Hawkeye19 You bring up some good points about Dak being a leader and the team rallies around him. Problem is that they have had 5 years and not met expectations. Does Dak have what it takes to elevate his play to carry the team? So far, the answer is no. He can't even elevate his play in the 1st half of games.

QBs do not play in a vacuum. The more money paid to a QB, the less money available for other players. What is the difference between overpaying Dak at $37M versus paying a Dalton or some other QB $10M and using $27M on a few other positions. Yes, Dak is better than Dalton. How much is debatable. The team is better paying Dalton $10M and getting 3 other good players at $9M each.

Paying Dak $37M is putting too many eggs in one basket. Dak had the team at 1-3 with a gift win courtesy of a hapless Atlanta team. If Dak gets hurt for a few games this coming season, the team is toast because there is not enough money spread around for such a rainy day. No money for other players to pick up the slack.

Dak is mediocre to good. Usually, mediocre to bad in the 1st half of games and Good to very good in the 2nd half. It all averages out to average. A team that pays an overall average QB $37M will have a ceiling of average. Average is not going to win SBs.

Which other QBs are available to choose from? What is Dak's value on the open market?

Best way forward in my opinion is to let Dak test the open market and see if the Cowboys will match his highest offer. Fair to all. If Dak can't get $30M from another team, why should the Cowboys overpay? Cowboys overpaid Dak this year and got absolutely nothing in return.

 

[blueblood70]

Completion % is jazzed up especially when comparing someone like Dan Marino with Dak Prescott in those terms given the differences in the game for starters.

But...Tebow 48% and Lamar 64% completion. Come on man let's be serious.

i meant his Pro Comp is all Mike Vick hes better then Tebow because hes faster and shiftier. Hes Vick i meant 100% no doubt vick..

Tebow is coming to the nfl maybe tad better passer, goes by Longhorn Sam Ellinger tough slower runner hard to tackle and good with the rpos lol Tyrod Taylor also reminds me of tebow

 

[75boyz]

@Hawkeye19 You bring up some good points about Dak being a leader and the team rallies around him. Problem is that they have had 5 years and not met expectations. Does Dak have what it takes to elevate his play to carry the team? So far, the answer is no. He can't even elevate his play in the 1st half of games.

QBs do not play in a vacuum. The more money paid to a QB, the less money available for other players. What is the difference between overpaying Dak at $37M versus paying a Dalton or some other QB $10M and using $27M on a few other positions. Yes, Dak is better than Dalton. How much is debatable. The team is better paying Dalton $10M and getting 3 other good players at $9M each.

Paying Dak $37M is putting too many eggs in one basket. Dak had the team at 1-3 with a gift win courtesy of a hapless Atlanta team. If Dak gets hurt for a few games this coming season, the team is toast because there is not enough money spread around for such a rainy day. No money for other players to pick up the slack.

Dak is mediocre to good. Usually, mediocre to bad in the 1st half of games and Good to very good in the 2nd half. It all averages out to average. A team that pays an overall average QB $37M will have a ceiling of average. Average is not going to win SBs.

Which other QBs are available to choose from? What is Dak's value on the open market?

Best way forward in my opinion is to let Dak test the open market and see if the Cowboys will match his highest offer. Fair to all. If Dak can't get $30M from another team, why should the Cowboys overpay? Cowboys overpaid Dak this year and got absolutely nothing in return.

Really well written with strong supportive evidence and sound reasoning. Excellent post man.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

No, not a Dalton guy. Told ya that on a previous post last week when I mentioned how similar our views on the defensive side of the ball was.
I'm now kinda borrowing from Aviano90's take here but I would not mind losing 2 to 3 years in a row. Not intentionally or tanking. Just unfortunate bad seasons based on injury or whatever(similar to this year) but maybe even a couple more losses. So I'd like a total rebuild requiring 2 to 3 consecutive losing seasons which results in drafting top 5 to 7 talent from those years and take it from there. Expansion style. No tanking or losing on purpose but losing nonetheless so that it can be re-booted all over from the ground up.

Did I mention this includes with a coach not named McCarthy or Moore?

Or even more miraculous even...

"JERRY SELLS COWBOYS" lol

But yeah, back to reality. This quarter century's status quo will never improve over mediocrity if drastic changes to leadership at different levels never changes.
Winning in spite of GMing, Coaching and QBing is just not attainable or realistic and that is the current challenge this team faces.

btw, I respect the friendly and logical discussion. we just have differing views, but you present it in a well thought manner, unlike a few, who just hammer one thing over and over and over and over again.

with that said, then it sound like you are advocating tanking. I am not going to say yes/no to the idea, but tanking would require actually getting rid of/trading players and filling in with temporary players and like you said go through the draft. current roster has a lot of good players that we then would need to trade/cut, like Gallup, Collins, Martin, Cooper, Jarwin, Schultz, etc. if you don't get rid of these players, then the offense will be average, defense will become average and we stay average....you can't count on injuries. this season for us and 9ers was unprecedented. pretty bad.

only when we trade away a lot of the mid aged, older commodities, accumulate draft picks, a little bit of luck, then we can truly rebuild with top 10 picks.

I am with you on Moore. I think he may someday become a good OC, but right now he is not.

and I love the last idea. Jerry sells the cowboys or slightly less miraculously, he steps down as the GM..

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

hes tad better then Tebow a chit ton faster running the ball and his comp is 100% Mike Vick..

people don't realize how much of a good passer vick was. he was always pass first, run second.....he was super fast.

 

[DandyDon52]

actually that's not true....he wanted a 4 year deal instead of 5, to hit 2024 where cap is expected to go up significantly, and he gets to that next contract faster....

He was being greedy.
That should tell you that he cares mostly about maximizing the amount of money he makes, not winning SB's.
Most of the cowboys players are like this, and on other teams too.

5 year deal would help the team, but he doesnt care about the team, just his money.

Mahomes signed a 10 year deal to help his team and they can manipulate that money over a long period to help them when needed.
Mahomes likes to win.

If dak wanted to win a SB, he would play 1 more year on tag, then go to another team with a chance to win SB.
But he wont, he will stay here because he just wants money lots of it.

 

[DandyDon52]

Jerry sells the cowboys or slightly less miraculously, he steps down as the GM..

only in our day dreams lol, however someday he will no longer be able to be GM, unless he starts getting bionic parts lol.
We may go from human jerry to cyborg jerry, to robot jerry.

 

[Whyjerry]

which holes? how are you going to address them? FA? and whom? and how much they cost?

Fields is another QB that most probably will fail in the NFL. being surronded by some of the absolute best talent in college. in a big time program. the last few QBs out of OSU have amounted to a hill of beans...so he is most probably next in line.

and I guess from now until next year, everyone becomes a QB evaluation guru and will swear by this QB and that QB. 4 out of 5 first round QBs fail.....so probability of Fields failing is much higher than succeeding. IMO he is quite over rated.

So by everyone becoming a QB guru, that includes you, right? I mean you just provided your opinion. As a guru of course. Holes? Let’s start with OT. DT. LB and more than one LB. Need another CB. Maybe 2 if Chido and Lewis both go. Need a S. You fill those with FA and the draft in case you forgot. Lawrence is surrounded by NFL talent too so I guess that downgrades him.

 

[75boyz]

btw, I respect the friendly and logical discussion. we just have differing views, but you present it in a well thought manner, unlike a few, who just hammer one thing over and over and over and over again.

with that said, then it sound like you are advocating tanking. I am not going to say yes/no to the idea, but tanking would require actually getting rid of/trading players and filling in with temporary players and like you said go through the draft. current roster has a lot of good players that we then would need to trade/cut, like Gallup, Collins, Martin, Cooper, Jarwin, Schultz, etc. if you don't get rid of these players, then the offense will be average, defense will become average and we stay average....you can't count on injuries. this season for us and 9ers was unprecedented. pretty bad.

only when we trade away a lot of the mid aged, older commodities, accumulate draft picks, a little bit of luck, then we can truly rebuild with top 10 picks.

I am with you on Moore. I think he may someday become a good OC, but right now he is not.

and I love the last idea. Jerry sells the cowboys or slightly less miraculously, he steps down as the GM..

Thanks man. My respect for ya is returned as well. The lost art of respectful communication.

Trying not to sound too corny with a tired cliche but I realize there's more than one way to skin a cat.

My opinion is no more accurate than the next man.

Even so called empirical evidence presented here can sometimes be called into question depending on the context of the facts given.

Just another message board fan who disagrees with the overall direction of the team. No more, no less.

Appreciate the discussion.

 

[CWR]

TLDR: Letting Dak walk hurts this franchise a lot more than it helps us, in both the short and long term.

I have gone back and forth on the Dak-Dilemma for months. I am not a Dak hater. I consider myself a Dak-realist. He is not "elite" in my opinion (Mahommes, Rodgers are the only 2 QBs this year that qualify as elite in my estimation). Nor is he "mediocre" or "average" as many on this site claim. He is good. At times, he is really good. At other times, his play is borderline average.

And so we have arrived at a crossroads. To pay or not to pay? 2 years ago-- fans were arguing on whether or not he was worth 30 mil per year. Many said "not worth more than 25". Then Wentz and Goff signed-- and the needle moved to 34-35 mil per, and the counter was "not worth more 30". Then Mahommes and Watson signed, and the conversation is now 40 mil per and the counter is now "not worth more than 35". The simple truth is the QB market has been drastically reset over the past 2 years, and the cost of good QB play has significantly risen. Had we signed Dak 2 years ago for 30 mil, we would be in the middle of a sweetheart of a deal. But I digress....

If you let him walk... you gain cap space, yes-- but what do you lose? I've been thinking about the following items:

1. Fractured Locker-room. The players love him. He is the unquestioned leader and this is "Dak's team". If we choose to not pay him, the move will NOT be well received by the players and a riff occurs and eyebrows are raised. Add to that the pressure you put on Dak's replacement to fill his shoes on the field, and with his buddies off it-- and you have a bad situation ready to explode.

2. You lose top 10 level QB play on the field. No-- he is not top 3. But he is not middling either. IMO-- he is trending up, and his quality of play is top 10 in the NFL-- and that will win a lot of games. If you let him leave-- how do you replace his production?

3. Leadership intangibles. Related to point #1 for sure-- but Dak may have the best leadership skill of any QB in the NFL right now. Yes, Rodgers is a HOF player, but some of his teammates hate the guy. Mahommes is a stud and well-liked-- but Dak just is a natural born leader. He says the right things. He does the right things. He is football smart, but he has a high emotional IQ as well. Yes, you could trade up to draft a rookie-- but what you might gain (stress "might") in the football talent category, you more than likely lose a TON when it comes to leadership and "face of the franchise" factor.

4. You stand to lose Rep/Cred. If you let Dak walk, and he gets signed by another team, and hoists a Lombardi-- you will forever be the FO that "couldn't get a deal done with a high caliber franchise QB". Ouch. This franchise is already a laughing stock-- but that would take things to a new low-- especially if the "solution" they bring in to replace Dak doesn't pan out.

Therefore-- the best thing for the entire franchise is to sign Dak to a 4-5 year deal. We will overpay. But the number most fans are comfortable with paying him has already moved from 25 million per year 2 years ago, to 35 million per year now. As a fan-- Are you really willing to let him walk and potentially suffer the fallout over a 5 million per year difference?

that's the first quad hammer I've awarded, well earned my friend.

 

[buybuydandavis]

TLDR: Letting Dak walk hurts this franchise a lot more than it helps us, in both the short and long term.
...
Therefore-- the best thing for the entire franchise is to sign Dak to a 4-5 year deal. We will overpay. But the number most fans are comfortable with paying him has already moved from 25 million per year 2 years ago, to 35 million per year now. As a fan-- Are you really willing to let him walk and potentially suffer the fallout over a 5 million per year difference?

We should not be paying extra for any Dallas starting QB. Period. Jerry brings *huge* value outside the contract itself. Two top NFL Announcers - Troy Aikman, Tony Romo. Do they have anything in particular in common?

Jerry makes playing for the Cowboys a marketing gold mine, and for no position more than QB, and that should be taken into account in contract negotiations.

QBs who don't understand that are the wrong QBs for us. They are *bad value* relative to QBs who have competent business managers.

I've thought that the QB market has been overpriced for years. QBs last longer, play older, and come out of college more prepared to play. Greater supply of QBs, same 32 starter demand. Price should be going down.

As GM, I'd be trying to churn mobile QBs on their rookie contracts. McCarthy is supposed to be a QB guru. Let him show us the magic. When you're willing to run your QB, he can just bring more value on the field. A lot more. 40mil extra for the rest of the team. 20% more. I think both Tom Brady and Drew Brees are playing for 25mil. The kind of guys to tide you over while you develop QB draft picks.