News: Updates: New WR Gets "Awesome" Review From OC

jterrell

jterrell

Penguinite
Messages
33,532
Reaction score
15,709
gimmesix said:
Again, it's not that easy. It's a 50 percent hit rate. That means half the picks fail. Sure, it's easy to point out the good ones ... the reasons you keep taking receivers in the third round. But thinking I can just get one and it'll work out just doesn't fit the evidence. You can say if you can't find a good one, you just suck at drafting, but that isn't true. Both good and bad drafting teams miss.

Let's just take a 10-year period (2010-2020) since it's harder to judge receivers who've been in the league only a year.

2010 (4 hits, 4 misses)
Damian Williams (Tennessee) miss; 107 catches, 1,327 yards for career
Brandon LaFell (Carolina) marginal hit; never had a 1,000-yard season, but came close
Emmanuel Sanders (Pittsburgh) hit; three 1,000-yard seasons
Jordan Shipley (Green Bay) miss, had 79 receptions for 858 yards in his career
Eric Decker (Denver) hit; had three 1,000-yard seasons
Andre Roberts (Arizona) hit; maybe not a success as a receiver, but an All-Pro as a returner
Armanti Edwards (Carolina) absolute miss 40 rec. 281 yards for career
Taylor Price (New England) absolute miss 5 rec., 80 yards for career

2011 (0 hits, 4 misses)
Austin Pettis (St. Louis) miss; 107 rec., 1,034 yards for career
Leonard Hankerson (Washington) miss; 107 rec. 1,048 yards for career
Vincent Brown (San Diego) miss, 133 receptions, 941 yards for career
Jerrel Jernigan (NY Giants) miss; 39 rec., 492 yards for career

2012 (2 hits, 2 misses)
DeVier Posey (Houston) miss; 22 catches, 272 yards for career
T.J. Graham (Buffalo) miss; 61 rec., 794 yards for career
Mohamed Sanu (Cincinnati) marginal hit; no season with more than 67 catches, 838 yards
T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis) big hit; five 1,000-yard seasons

2013 (3 hits, 2 misses)
Terrance Williams (Dallas) marginal hit; no season with more than 53 rec., 840 yards
Keenan Allen (San Diego) big hit; five 1,000-yard seasons
Marquise Goodwin (Buffalo) marginal hit; no season with more than 56 rec., 962 yards
Markus Wheaton (Pittsburgh) miss; 110 rec., 1,559 yards for career
Stedman Bailey (St. Louis) major miss; 59 catches, 843 yards for career

2014 (2 hits, 2 misses)
Josh Huff (Philadelphia) big miss; 51 rec., 523 yards for career
Donte Moncrief (Indianapolis) marginal hit; bests 69 rec., 668 yards
John Brown (Arizona) hit, two 1,000-yard seasons
Dri Archer (Pittsburgh) absolute miss; not sure why he's listed as a receiver, so I'm not going to count him in the total; had 7 rec., 40 yards in career

I'm going to quit there because I'm putting a lot of work in for something you will probably either ignore or dismiss. The numbers (11 hits, 14 misses) say there's even less of a chance of hitting on a receiver in the third round than what I've said, and the chances of hitting on a star receiver are very low. Out of 25 players, only 5 had/have had 1,000-yard seasons in their career.

The odds are actually against Tolbert succeeding, but we've had pretty good luck with third-round receivers at least being decent contributors. I'm just saying that I don't know if we should absolutely count on that continuing. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
Click to expand...
I actually appreciate the work but the issue is what you qualify as misses.
100 receptions and 1000 receiving yards in the NFL is not a miss. It's a depth WR which is what you get half the time and that is fine.
You spent a 3rd round pick and 4M on the kid. He played a 4th or 5th WR role and possibly special teams.
Go check what you get from 3rd round QBs? 3rd round DTs? Actually save yourself the time, it isn't pretty. Odds are far higher at WR to find legit NFL players.
You are calling guys like Sanu marginal hits for being long term WR2?? come on man, thats hilarious.
Marquise Goodwin was a hit of a 3rd round pick. He provided a solid WR3 in value and was a plus special teamer.

With round 3 picks you need guys that make the active roster for 3 years minimum. If you get that they provided cheap depth and special teams play that helps you with the cap.
You'd love more than that but that's not the expected bar.
The point of the entire discussion is in R3 you can draft a Marquise Goodwin every year and every 3rd or 4th year you can draft a sure-fire Pro Bowler.
Those are really good hit rates compared to most any other position. --RB also high. OT/QB/CB pretty low.
 
gimmesix

gimmesix

Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life
Messages
37,684
Reaction score
34,721
jterrell said:
I actually appreciate the work but the issue is what you qualify as misses.
100 receptions and 1000 receiving yards in the NFL is not a miss. It's a depth WR which is what you get half the time and that is fine.
You spent a 3rd round pick and 4M on the kid. He played a 4th or 5th WR role and possibly special teams.
Go check what you get from 3rd round QBs? 3rd round DTs? Actually save yourself the time, it isn't pretty. Odds are far higher at WR to find legit NFL players.
You are calling guys like Sanu marginal hits for being long term WR2?? come on man, thats hilarious.
Marquise Goodwin was a hit of a 3rd round pick. He provided a solid WR3 in value and was a plus special teamer.

With round 3 picks you need guys that make the active roster for 3 years minimum. If you get that they provided cheap depth and special teams play that helps you with the cap.
You'd love more than that but that's not the expected bar.
The point of the entire discussion is in R3 you can draft a Marquise Goodwin every year and every 3rd or 4th year you can draft a sure-fire Pro Bowler.
Those are really good hit rates compared to most any other position. --RB also high. OT/QB/CB pretty low.
Click to expand...

Don't believe we were talking about a depth WR (fourth or fifth receiver). You're original comment I responded to was this:

Truth is you can get a really good WR in round 3 every year.
Click to expand...

If you believe a player who ends up with 100 receptions and 1,000 yards for his career is a really good WR, I disagree with you. Again, the odds are 50/50 at best that you end up with a receiver who can be one of your top three and one who is depth at best. If the player you draft in the third round can't be one of your top three, then yes, I consider that a miss.

And note that I counted the two players you mentioned,Goodwin and Sanu, as hits and the percentage is still below 50 percent. It doesn't matter whether I consider them marginal hits or not, because I counted them as part of the hits and the rate is still low.

I absolutely agree with you that the rate is lower for other positions in the third round. That's why I scoff when fans count on our third-rounders, fourth-rounders, fifth-rounders, etc., to automatically mean improvement for the team. For what's it's worth, we don't know if we can count on the first-rounder or second-rounder. We've missed on plenty of those.
 
plymkr

plymkr

Well-Known Member
Messages
9,468
Reaction score
14,066
Why is it everytime I picture this interview taking place I have an easier time seeing Moore say, "He's rad!!!" instead of "he's awesome"?
 
jterrell

jterrell

Penguinite
Messages
33,532
Reaction score
15,709
gimmesix said:
Don't believe we were talking about a depth WR (fourth or fifth receiver). You're original comment I responded to was this:



If you believe a player who ends up with 100 receptions and 1,000 yards for his career is a really good WR, I disagree with you. Again, the odds are 50/50 at best that you end up with a receiver who can be one of your top three and one who is depth at best. If the player you draft in the third round can't be one of your top three, then yes, I consider that a miss.

And note that I counted the two players you mentioned,Goodwin and Sanu, as hits and the percentage is still below 50 percent. It doesn't matter whether I consider them marginal hits or not, because I counted them as part of the hits and the rate is still low.

I absolutely agree with you that the rate is lower for other positions in the third round. That's why I scoff when fans count on our third-rounders, fourth-rounders, fifth-rounders, etc., to automatically mean improvement for the team. For what's it's worth, we don't know if we can count on the first-rounder or second-rounder. We've missed on plenty of those.
Click to expand...
Two different designations.

REALLY good WR, which absolutely exists in every round 3.
Expectation of a WR you draft in round 3 as to be considered a hit or a miss with a draft pick.
If you get a REALLY good WR in R3 that is a home run. But a hit is getting a professional who helps you and saves you significant cap space. A miss is a guy who didn't help you and ended up not playing much if at all.

My entire point has been to compliment the strategy here as smart drafting.
You reduce risk and improve chances of success by picking a typically deep position in round 3 where you can often get a top 50 player.
 
gimmesix

gimmesix

Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life
Messages
37,684
Reaction score
34,721
jterrell said:
Two different designations.

REALLY good WR, which absolutely exists in every round 3.
Expectation of a WR you draft in round 3 as to be considered a hit or a miss with a draft pick.
If you get a REALLY good WR in R3 that is a home run. But a hit is getting a professional who helps you and saves you significant cap space. A miss is a guy who didn't help you and ended up not playing much if at all.

My entire point has been to compliment the strategy here as smart drafting.
You reduce risk and improve chances of success by picking a typically deep position in round 3 where you can often get a top 50 player.
Click to expand...

But if your point is to get a No. 2 or No. 3 receiver, or a "really good WR," it is not a good strategy. Again, the hit rate is less than 50 percent. Most of the receivers that are listed would be No. 4 or 5 at best.

We drafted Gallup in the third round when we basically needed a starting receiver. That's not a good strategy. We've drafted Tolbert in the third round when we basically need at least a No. 3 receiver (with Gallup sidelined). That's not a good strategy.

Thirteen of the third-round receivers listed out of 25 had 107 or fewer receptions for their career. That doesn't even qualify as good if you are looking for one of your top three receivers.

Again, you said in the original post that you made that you can get a "really good WR" in the third round every year. Do you seriously believe a receiver who finishes with 100 receptions for his career is really good? I hope Tolbert turns out really good, but there's more of a chance that he finishes with 107 career receptions than he turns into the next Michael Gallup or even Terrance Williams. We've done fairly well with receivers in the third round, though, so maybe that means we're better at picking the gems instead of just being more lucky.
 
jnday

jnday

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,292
Reaction score
11,422
jazzcat22 said:
Just as the haters are trained to hate every little thing. Turn a positive into a negative.
Click to expand...
Those haters are just the worst type of fan. If they were real fans, they would never make negative comments about the various problems that has kept the Cowboys from being Super Bowl contenders for 25+ years.
 
jazzcat22

jazzcat22

Staff member
Messages
77,366
Reaction score
96,035
CowboysZone ULTIMATE Fan
jnday said:
Those haters are just the worst type of fan. If they were real fans, they would never make negative comments about the various problems that has kept the Cowboys from being Super Bowl contenders for 25+ years.
Click to expand...

Oh we need the negative comments, and to question what the FO or coaching staff or players do at times.
Just do not need the haters that hate everything, or turn positives into negatives. Or the constant hate on certain players. Or take over any thread that is positive. Question as to why one feels that way, yes, as people have opinions, but way too often they tort out the insults when they are proven wrong. But that is what this place is.
I try not to respond to them as much as I used to. They are more and more meaningless to me now.

But it doesn't mean I won't comment once in a while as to the generality of it. :laugh:
 
Pokes12

Pokes12

Well-Known Member
Messages
1,211
Reaction score
919
morasp said:
4:22 p.m. - Just a two-word answer was all Kellen Moore needed to describe his newest drafted wide receiver.

"He's awesome," said Moore, the Cowboys' offensive coordinator when asked about rookie Jalen Tolbert. "I think he works his tail off. I think you can tell how prepared he is and how detailed he wants to be. I think he's going to be a really good addition for us."

Tolbert, a third-round pick from South Alabama, was nearly the Cowboys' second-round pick. So obviously, the team was ecstatic to land him in the third. And with Michael Gallup still rehabbing a torn ACL injury that could jeopardize his chances of playing Week 1, Tolbert will get the chance to show his versatility.

"We'll try to get him to learn as many spots as possible. We'll start him in a Z-type position, maybe play him in the slot," Moore said. "We'll get him moved all around the field. We like to do that with a number of our receivers. So, we'll do the same thing with him."

Updates: New WR Gets “Awesome” Review From OC (dallascowboys.com)
Click to expand...
Do not buy into this. It is a trap. Jerruh and his minion do this every year. We always win the SB, right after the draft and in the middle of every OTA and trining camp. Those wins are a fig newton of Jerruh’s wild and wacky imagination. Do not believe that wanting to be prepared and precise means anything, judge for yourself when the games begin. Without Cooper we have an average to below average receiving corps, with little that frightens any defense. We have a tight end who cannot or will not block and below average speed and Venus flytrap capabilities for catching contested balls. Our OC does not show any creativity in getting receivers to separate from the defense. Thus, do not believe this BS especially coming from an OC the cannot call anything but a vanilla game plan that never adjusts to what is actually happening on the field.
 
DuncanIso

DuncanIso

Well-Known Member
Messages
9,673
Reaction score
6,157
kskboys said:
I don't agree w/ that assessment/grading system. Gallup has more burst and lateral agility.
Click to expand...

maybe not now.

Gallup might not be 100 percent. Ever.

that’s the reason they drafted this kid.

NFL careers are too short.
 

ondaedg

Well-Known Member
Messages
2,891
Reaction score
3,034
Parcells made guys prove themselves before he threw love notes at them and his players loved him for it. He challenged them. The current coaches constantly start praising their rookie picks before they’ve even played a preseason game. Leadership experts facepalm every time our coaches get in front of a mic.
 
DuncanIso

DuncanIso

Well-Known Member
Messages
9,673
Reaction score
6,157
stilltheguru said:
Nobody and I mean nobody cares what kellen Moore has to say
Click to expand...

i can’t hate on KMoore too much.

he is not in control of the OL.

big mike and Philbin are hoping KMoore leaves.

then Philbin can get his OC job back.
 
speedkilz88

speedkilz88

Well-Known Member
Messages
36,082
Reaction score
21,964
DuncanIso said:
i can’t hate on KMoore too much.

he is not in control of the OL.

big mike and Philbin are hoping KMoore leaves.

then Philbin can get his OC job back.
Click to expand...
Philbin was OC in name only at GB. He was still the OL coach despite his and others' titles and Mike McCarthy was the real OC, it was his offense and he called plays.
 
Calvin2Tony2Emmitt2Julius

Calvin2Tony2Emmitt2Julius

Well-Known Member
Messages
2,648
Reaction score
1,922
rookie mini camps, ota's supposed to get us excited about the youngins. Why ya'll gotta be killjoys ? The season will be here soon enough. It's not good enough for some to be wet blankets, you gotta convince everyone else to piss and moan like you do
 
DuncanIso

DuncanIso

Well-Known Member
Messages
9,673
Reaction score
6,157
speedkilz88 said:
Philbin was over Campen, the OC was just a title. It was McCarthy's offense.
Click to expand...

so Philbin was doing Campens job for him?

I seriously doubt that.

campen is one of the top OL coaches in the NFL.

look, the only reason Philbin is our OL coach is because he’s big buddies with Mike.
 
Jarntt

Jarntt

Well-Known Member
Messages
4,363
Reaction score
5,904
"He's awesome," said Moore, the Cowboys' offensive coordinator when asked about rookie Jalen Tolbert. "I think he works his tail off. I think you can tell how prepared he is and how detailed he wants to be. I think he's going to be a really good addition for us."

and then promptly starts out OTAs not practicing on the first day...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top