My quick take on Playoff Scenarios

CWR · Dec 11, 2017

jday said:
Here's my question:

Can more than one wild card come out of the South? Right now there are 3 teams in the South competing for the NFCS title and a wild card spot, but if there is a tie for second place, can both secure the fifth and sixth seed?

Yes

bsheeern · Dec 11, 2017

jday said:
Here's my question:

Can more than one wild card come out of the South? Right now there are 3 teams in the South competing for the NFCS title and a wild card spot, but if there is a tie for second place, can both secure the fifth and sixth seed?

Yes, 3 teams from the same division can make the playoffs. The winner and the other 2 can be the Wild Cards.

HanD · Dec 11, 2017

Reality said:
Packers (7-6) .. play Panthers (L), Vikings (L), Lions (W) .. Projected (9-7)

Packers must win out to rank ahead of the Cowboys

isn't aaron rodgers due back week 15? that might change things up a bit....

Reality · Dec 11, 2017

jday said:
Here's my question:

Can more than one wild card come out of the South? Right now there are 3 teams in the South competing for the NFCS title and a wild card spot, but if there is a tie for second place, can both secure the fifth and sixth seed?

Yes, it is quite possible. The Falcons have to play both the Saints and the Panthers. Technically, the Falcons can get in without beating those two teams as long as they beat the Buccaneers and the Cowboys, Packers, Seahawks, etc. lose games, but realistically the Falcons need to win at least 2 out of the last 3 to have a chance without help.

It's one of those situations where if A beats B, and B beats C, and C beats A, it would be bad for the Cowboys. It would be much better if at least two of those teams lose 2+ games. We know there will be at least 4 losses added to those three teams due to playing each other. We just don't know how they will be split yet.

Darkhound · Dec 11, 2017

Reality said:
I am sure it's been discussed elsewhere but here is my take on the playoff scenarios for Dallas. I did this quickly, so it is possible I missed something.

*** NOTE: This is assuming Dallas wins out .. I'm not saying they will, but they have to in order to have a chance to make the playoffs (unless multiple teams lose multiple games of course) so for their playoff scenarios, that assumption has to be made.

Saints (9-4) .. play Jets (W), Falcons (W), Buccaneers (W) .. Projected (12-4) ..

Saints must win 1 game against an NFC opponent to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Panthers (9-4) .. play Packers (W), Buccaneers (W), Falcons (??) .. Projected (11-5 to 12-4)

Panthers must win 2 games or 1 game and have better common opponent record to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Seahawks (8-5) .. play Rams (??), Cowboys (L) and Cardinals (W) .. Projected (9-7 or 10-6) ..

Seattle must win against the Cowboys to rank ahead of Cowboys

Falcons (8-5) .. play Buccaneers (W), Saints (L), Panthers (??) .. Projected (9-7 to 10-6) ..

Falcons must win 2 games to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Lions (7-6) .. play Bears (W), Bengals (??), Packers (L) .. Projected (8-8 to 9-7) ..

Lions must win out to and have better common opponent record to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Packers (7-6) .. play Panthers (L), Vikings (L), Lions (W) .. Projected (9-7)

Packers must win out to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Again, all of that is assuming the Cowboys win out, which is no guarantee by any means.

To make things simple by avoiding deep tie-breaker scenarios ..

The Cowboys need to win out, but can technically still make the playoffs at 9-7

The Cowboys need to beat the Seahawks no matter what else happens

The Falcons need to lose at least 2 games more than the Cowboys (Cowboys lose tie-breaker)

The Lions need to lose 1 game more than the Cowboys (tie-breaker possible with same record as Cowboys)

The Saints need to lose 3 games and the Cowboys win out

The Panthers need to lose 3 games and the Cowboys win out (tie-breaker possible if Panthers only lose 2)

The Packers need to lose 1 more game than the Cowboys (Cowboys lose tie-breaker)

*** Of course all of this is based on head-to-head records and/or tie-breakers. 3-way tie-breakers are more involved.

There is really no sense and this team has nothing to do in the playoffs... so why bother honestly?

Reality · Dec 11, 2017

bsheeern said:
Yes, 3 teams from the same division can make the playoffs. The winner and the other 2 can be the Wild Cards.

I think he was talking about playoffs scenarios based on records, not whether 2 wildcards can come from the same division rule-wise.

Reality · Dec 11, 2017

Darkhound said:
There is really no sense and this team has nothing to do in the playoffs... so why bother honestly?

The odds are against the Cowboys making the playoffs, much less wining in them, but I always play the game until the end.

It's easy to give up, and most people do every time things start to get difficult. I like it that way though as it just means fewer people to get in the way

Reality · Dec 11, 2017

HanD said:
isn't aaron rodgers due back week 15? that might change things up a bit....

Actually, the projected wins/losses were based on Rodgers returning for the last 3 games. The Packers play the Panthers at Carolina, which is a tough game for them, and they play the Vikings at home, but the Vikings have a better team than the Packers and they are not affected by cold weather either.

jazzcat22 · Dec 11, 2017

Last night on the local DFW FOX sports said that they went through all the scenarios where if Dallas finishes 10-6. The probability is better than 50% they make the playoffs.

Basically what I looked at, quickly. We need to win out of course. That means we beat Seattle and hold the tie breaker.
GB and Detroit lose 1 each, and they play each other the last week. So one of them is out for sure.
Atlanta simply needs to lose 2 games or if Carolina loses 2 games, and we are tied, but we have the better conference record, unless common games come into play first.

Reality · Dec 11, 2017

jazzcat22 said:
Last night on the local DFW FOX sports said that they went through all the scenarios where if Dallas finishes 10-6. The probability is better than 50% they make the playoffs.

Basically what I looked at, quickly. We need to win out of course. That means we beat Seattle and hold the tie breaker.
GB and Detroit lose 1 each, and they play each other the last week. So one of them is out for sure.
Atlanta simply needs to lose 2 games or if Carolina loses 2 games, and we are tied, but we have the better conference record, unless common games come into play first.

All of the predictions like this I have seen though are focused on current wild card teams only. The Saints and Rams can still end up wild cards as well and, while not likely, it is possible for the Cowboys to catch them should they lose their divisions. That's why I covered all possible teams in the mix with the Cowboys .. at least the ones ahead of them as the ones behind can only catch the Cowboys if the Cowboys lose, which basically negates the assumption I posted the disclaimer about.

TheBigEasy · Dec 11, 2017

Darkhound said:
There is really no sense and this team has nothing to do in the playoffs... so why bother honestly?

Why bother making this post or being a 'supporter' on a team's forum if you feel so negative towards the team? Absolutely no hate towards you and my post wasn't made to start anything. Just baffles me to see so called 'Cowboy fans' wasting their time on here when they've already written this season off.

jazzcat22 · Dec 11, 2017

Reality said:
All of the predictions like this I have seen though are focused on current wild card teams only. The Saints and Rams can still end up wild cards as well and, while not likely, it is possible for the Cowboys to catch them should they lose their divisions. That's why I covered all possible teams in the mix with the Cowboys .. at least the ones ahead of them as the ones behind can only catch the Cowboys if the Cowboys lose, which basically negates the assumption I posted the disclaimer about.

Right, and I looked at those teams as well. But I am just looking at the simplest path. As the Rams hold the tie breaker over us, I am just pulling they win the division. They can hand Seattle a loss next week, and that takes care of 2 teams out of the equation.

LurkingCowboy · Dec 11, 2017

jazzcat22 said:
Right, and I looked at those teams as well. But I am just looking at the simplest path. As the Rams hold the tie breaker over us, I am just pulling they win the division. They can hand Seattle a loss next week, and that takes care of 2 teams out of the equation.

I think it's very likely Seattle beats LA next week, then LA goes on the road again to Tennessee. That will be another tough game for them but they finish with the 49ers. Here's to them winning 2 of 3.

jazzcat22 · Dec 11, 2017

LurkingCowboy said:
I think it's very likely Seattle beats LA next week, then LA goes on the road again to Tennessee. That will be another tough game for them but they finish with the 49ers. Here's to them winning 2 of 3.

Wouldn't doubt that scenario at all.

Reality · Dec 11, 2017

jazzcat22 said:
Right, and I looked at those teams as well. But I am just looking at the simplest path. As the Rams hold the tie breaker over us, I am just pulling they win the division. They can hand Seattle a loss next week, and that takes care of 2 teams out of the equation.

And that's definitely the best way to look at it!

yimyammer · Dec 11, 2017

Reality said:
they (Vikings) are not affected by cold weather either.

why? don't they play in a dome now?

jday · Dec 11, 2017

CowboysWillRise said:
Yes

bsheeern said:
Yes, 3 teams from the same division can make the playoffs. The winner and the other 2 can be the Wild Cards.

Reality said:
Yes, it is quite possible. The Falcons have to play both the Saints and the Panthers. Technically, the Falcons can get in without beating those two teams as long as they beat the Buccaneers and the Cowboys, Packers, Seahawks, etc. lose games, but realistically the Falcons need to win at least 2 out of the last 3 to have a chance without help.

It's one of those situations where if A beats B, and B beats C, and C beats A, it would be bad for the Cowboys. It would be much better if at least two of those teams lose 2+ games. We know there will be at least 4 losses added to those three teams due to playing each other. We just don't know how they will be split yet.

For some reason, I was under the mistaken impression that the Wild Cards could not both come from the same division...not sure why. Follow up question: Has it ever happened before?

Staubacher · Dec 11, 2017

Falcons barely beat the Saints and Tampa at home (the Tampa game was closer than final score). They now have to play both on the road in consecutive weeks and then finish at home vs Carolina who they've already lost to once.

I can see them losing at least 2 of their last 3 easily. On the other hand them winning out could help knock Carolina and possibly the Saints out.

Who knows at this point? I still don't see us winning out, but must admit this is at least making the end of the season interesting.

DCowboyz · Dec 11, 2017

Since we're the Cowboys. Watch everything goes our way and on week 17 only needing a win to make the playoffs, Nick Foles blows us out. Sigh. I'd fire the whole damn staff. Actually make or miss the playoffs, I hope the whole JG staff goes.

endersdragon · Dec 11, 2017

Going to playoff machine, assuming we win out, and the team with the highest winning % wins every other game it will all come down to Packers Lions week 17 where we will likely need a Packers victory (so go Rodgers... but not too quickly). The biggest setback for us last week was the Vikings losing to the Panthers as that's another team that won't get down to where we can pass them most likely.

My quick take on Playoff Scenarios

CWR

Well-Known Member

bsheeern

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HanD

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Reality

Darkhound

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Reality

Reality

Reality

jazzcat22

Reality

TheBigEasy

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jazzcat22

LurkingCowboy

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jazzcat22

Reality

yimyammer

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jday

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Staubacher

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DCowboyz

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endersdragon

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