My quick take on Playoff Scenarios

[Reality]

I am sure it's been discussed elsewhere but here is my take on the playoff scenarios for Dallas. I did this quickly, so it is possible I missed something.

*** NOTE: This is assuming Dallas wins out .. I'm not saying they will, but they have to in order to have a chance to make the playoffs (unless multiple teams lose multiple games of course) so for their playoff scenarios, that assumption has to be made.


Saints (9-4) .. play Jets (W), Falcons (W), Buccaneers (W) .. Projected (12-4) ..

• Saints must win 1 game against an NFC opponent to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Panthers (9-4) .. play Packers (W), Buccaneers (W), Falcons (??) .. Projected (11-5 to 12-4)

• Panthers must win 2 games or 1 game and have better common opponent record to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Seahawks (8-5) .. play Rams (??), Cowboys (L) and Cardinals (W) .. Projected (9-7 or 10-6) ..

• Seattle must win against the Cowboys to rank ahead of Cowboys

Falcons (8-5) .. play Buccaneers (W), Saints (L), Panthers (??) .. Projected (9-7 to 10-6) ..

• Falcons must win 2 games to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Lions (7-6) .. play Bears (W), Bengals (??), Packers (L) .. Projected (8-8 to 9-7) ..

• Lions must win out to and have better common opponent record to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Packers (7-6) .. play Panthers (L), Vikings (L), Lions (W) .. Projected (9-7)

• Packers must win out to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Again, all of that is assuming the Cowboys win out, which is no guarantee by any means.

To make things simple by avoiding deep tie-breaker scenarios ..

• The Cowboys need to win out, but can technically still make the playoffs at 9-7
• The Cowboys need to beat the Seahawks no matter what else happens
• The Falcons need to lose at least 2 games more than the Cowboys (Cowboys lose tie-breaker)
• The Lions need to lose 1 game more than the Cowboys (tie-breaker possible with same record as Cowboys)
• The Saints need to lose 3 games and the Cowboys win out
• The Panthers need to lose 3 games and the Cowboys win out (tie-breaker possible if Panthers only lose 2)
• The Packers need to lose 1 more game than the Cowboys (Cowboys lose tie-breaker)

*** Of course all of this is based on head-to-head records and/or tie-breakers. 3-way tie-breakers are more involved.

 

[SHAMSzy]

If only our D didn't turn into wet toilet paper when we lost Lee and faced the Rams and Packers

 

[Reality]

If only our D didn't turn into wet toilet paper when we lost Lee and faced the Rams and Packers

We would be in a much better position had we won either of those games, but especially the Packers game.

 

[Dallas_Cowboys50]

IF we beat Oakland next week and our path to a Wild Card still seems just as unlikely as it does today, Im convinced we will go 10-6 and miss out...And thousands of Cowboys fans who usually like the current playoff system (like myself) will suddenly be crying out for the NFL to expand the Playoffs to 8 teams a Conference, lol......

 

[Beast_from_East]

IF we beat Oakland next week and our path to a Wild Card still seems just as unlikely as it does today, Im convinced we will go 10-6 and miss out...And thousands of Cowboys fans who usually like the current playoff system (like myself) will suddenly be crying out for the NFL to expand the Playoffs to 8 teams a Conference, lol......

I disagree.................don't water down the playoffs by letting half the teams in.

If we don't make the playoffs, it is because we blew games to the Packers and Rams and got curb stomped in a handful of others.

 

[bsbellomy]

I am sure it's been discussed elsewhere but here is my take on the playoff scenarios for Dallas. I did this quickly, so it is possible I missed something.

*** NOTE: This is assuming Dallas wins out .. I'm not saying they will, but they have to in order to have a chance to make the playoffs (unless multiple teams lose multiple games of course) so for their playoff scenarios, that assumption has to be made.


Saints (9-4) .. play Jets (W), Falcons (W), Buccaneers (W) .. Projected (12-4) ..

• Saints must win 1 game against an NFC opponent to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Panthers (9-4) .. play Packers (W), Buccaneers (W), Falcons (??) .. Projected (11-5 to 12-4)

• Panthers must win 2 games or 1 game and have better common opponent record to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Seahawks (8-5) .. play Rams (??), Cowboys (L) and Cardinals (W) .. Projected (9-7 or 10-6) ..

• Seattle must win against the Cowboys to rank ahead of Cowboys

Falcons (8-5) .. play Buccaneers (W), Saints (L), Panthers (??) .. Projected (9-7 to 10-6) ..

• Falcons must win 2 games to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Lions (7-6) .. play Bears (W), Bengals (??), Packers (L) .. Projected (8-8 to 9-7) ..

• Lions must win out to and have better common opponent record to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Packers (7-6) .. play Panthers (L), Vikings (L), Lions (W) .. Projected (9-7)

• Packers must win out to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Again, all of that is assuming the Cowboys win out, which is no guarantee by any means.

To make things simple by avoiding deep tie-breaker scenarios ..

• The Cowboys need to win out, but can technically still make the playoffs at 9-7
• The Cowboys need to beat the Seahawks no matter what else happens
• The Falcons need to lose at least 2 games more than the Cowboys (Cowboys lose tie-breaker)
• The Lions need to lose 1 game more than the Cowboys (tie-breaker possible with same record as Cowboys)
• The Saints need to lose 3 games and the Cowboys win out
• The Panthers need to lose 3 games and the Cowboys win out (tie-breaker possible if Panthers only lose 2)
• The Packers need to lose 1 more game than the Cowboys (Cowboys lose tie-breaker)

What's the reason we lose the tie breaker to the Saints?

 

[bsbellomy]

IF we beat Oakland next week and our path to a Wild Card still seems just as unlikely as it does today, Im convinced we will go 10-6 and miss out...And thousands of Cowboys fans who usually like the current playoff system (like myself) will suddenly be crying out for the NFL to expand the Playoffs to 8 teams a Conference, lol......

A lot of things can happen next week that could significantly change the scenarios.

 

[Reality]

What's the reason we lose the tie breaker to the Saints?

If the Saints win one game against an NFC opponent and end up tied with the Cowboys at either 10-6 or 9-7, they would have the same conference record (or better if the Cowboys lose another NFC game) and the tiebreaker would switch to common opponents, and the Saints beat the Packers where the Cowboys lost to the Packers.

That said, I see the Saints winning at least two of their last three games, and possibly their division,. Either of those scenarios would make it impossible for the Cowboys to overtake them in the playoff slots. Of course if they beat the Falcons, that would help the Cowboys.

 

[Blackspider214]

IF we beat Oakland next week and our path to a Wild Card still seems just as unlikely as it does today, Im convinced we will go 10-6 and miss out...And thousands of Cowboys fans who usually like the current playoff system (like myself) will suddenly be crying out for the NFL to expand the Playoffs to 8 teams a Conference, lol......

Didn't Jerry already come out and advocate expanding the playoff teams? It was a few years ago. 6 is the correct number per conference. You don't want to go the way of NBA where half the league makes the playoffs. Which is what 8 teams per conference would be. That's way too many and would water down the playoffs and regular season. It also would diminish the value of winning the division, too. Because there would be as many wild cards as there would be division winners.

 

[Carson]

I’m happy to be alive and in the race!

Like Kevin Garnett said, “anything is possible”.

 

[1972COWBOY]

Some teams that were good at the start of the season are getting injuries to key players causing their team to get watered down. Look what just happened to the Eagles (Wentz may be out for the season). Some teams that got a rough start due to early injuries are improving after restructuring. I wouldn't mind an 8 team divisional playoff to give those teams that are late at starting to get better a chance for the SB.

 

[Kevinicus]

Panthers don't need to lose 3. The Cowboys win that tie-breaker outright.

Detroit wins a tie-breaker.

 

[Avery]

Hope for GB and Det to split their two meetings and ATL to tank. That NO loss on Thursday hurt us bigly.

 

[Reality]

Panthers don't need to lose 3. The Cowboys win that tie-breaker outright.

Detroit wins a tie-breaker.

Read my post again ..

• The Panthers need to lose 3 games and the Cowboys win out (tie-breaker possible if Panthers only lose 2)

.. and ..

• The Lions need to lose 1 game more than the Cowboys (tie-breaker possible with same record as Cowboys)

.. and at the top of the summary list I posted ..

To make things simple by avoiding deep tie-breaker scenarios ..

 

[Sydla]

We are the Cowboys. Expect the worst case scenario which would be:

- We win out
- Don't make the playoffs at 10-6
- Lose a few spots in the draft order
- The 5 game winning streak at the end deludes the Jones' family into thinking this staff is perfect, so no changes - Garrett, Marinelli, etc.
- 5 game winning streak has the Jones overvaluing our roster so we spend the offseason bragging about our roster, find a few more Nolan Carroll types in FA and think we'll fix everything in the draft.

 

[canters]

We are the Cowboys. Expect the worst case scenario which would be:

- We win out
- Don't make the playoffs at 10-6
- Lose a few spots in the draft order
- The 5 game winning streak at the end deludes the Jones' family into thinking this staff is perfect, so no changes - Garrett, Marinelli, etc.
- 5 game winning streak has the Jones overvaluing our roster so we spend the offseason bragging about our roster, find a few more Nolan Carroll types in FA and think we'll fix everything in the draft.

I think the overrating of the roster is a done deal.

I can hear JJ now in his drawl explaining that “when tha commissiona decided to suspend Zeke fa naw reel reason, he right then put tha brakes on our season. If he hadn’ of done that, we would be still playin’ in late January. This year as an asterisk beside it and it is shaped like Roga’s face.”

 

[Sydla]

I think the overrating of the roster is a done deal.

I can hear JJ now in his drawl explaining that “when tha commissiona decided to suspend Zeke fa naw reel reason, he right then put tha brakes on our season. If he hadn’ of done that, we would be still playin’ in late January. This year as an asterisk beside it and it is shaped like Roga’s face.”

Yep.

You'd think they would learn from their missteps leading up to this season, but they won't. They overvalue pretty much everything with this franchise.

 

[jday]

I am sure it's been discussed elsewhere but here is my take on the playoff scenarios for Dallas. I did this quickly, so it is possible I missed something.

*** NOTE: This is assuming Dallas wins out .. I'm not saying they will, but they have to in order to have a chance to make the playoffs (unless multiple teams lose multiple games of course) so for their playoff scenarios, that assumption has to be made.


Saints (9-4) .. play Jets (W), Falcons (W), Buccaneers (W) .. Projected (12-4) ..

• Saints must win 1 game against an NFC opponent to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Panthers (9-4) .. play Packers (W), Buccaneers (W), Falcons (??) .. Projected (11-5 to 12-4)

• Panthers must win 2 games or 1 game and have better common opponent record to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Seahawks (8-5) .. play Rams (??), Cowboys (L) and Cardinals (W) .. Projected (9-7 or 10-6) ..

• Seattle must win against the Cowboys to rank ahead of Cowboys

Falcons (8-5) .. play Buccaneers (W), Saints (L), Panthers (??) .. Projected (9-7 to 10-6) ..

• Falcons must win 2 games to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Lions (7-6) .. play Bears (W), Bengals (??), Packers (L) .. Projected (8-8 to 9-7) ..

• Lions must win out to and have better common opponent record to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Packers (7-6) .. play Panthers (L), Vikings (L), Lions (W) .. Projected (9-7)

• Packers must win out to rank ahead of the Cowboys

Again, all of that is assuming the Cowboys win out, which is no guarantee by any means.

To make things simple by avoiding deep tie-breaker scenarios ..

• The Cowboys need to win out, but can technically still make the playoffs at 9-7
• The Cowboys need to beat the Seahawks no matter what else happens
• The Falcons need to lose at least 2 games more than the Cowboys (Cowboys lose tie-breaker)
• The Lions need to lose 1 game more than the Cowboys (tie-breaker possible with same record as Cowboys)
• The Saints need to lose 3 games and the Cowboys win out
• The Panthers need to lose 3 games and the Cowboys win out (tie-breaker possible if Panthers only lose 2)
• The Packers need to lose 1 more game than the Cowboys (Cowboys lose tie-breaker)

*** Of course all of this is based on head-to-head records and/or tie-breakers. 3-way tie-breakers are more involved.

Here's my question:

Can more than one wild card come out of the South? Right now there are 3 teams in the South competing for the NFCS title and a wild card spot, but if there is a tie for second place, can both secure the fifth and sixth seed?

 

[DFWJC]

We are the Cowboys. Expect the worst case scenario which would be:

- We win out
- Don't make the playoffs at 10-6
- Lose a few spots in the draft order
- The 5 game winning streak at the end deludes the Jones' family into thinking this staff is perfect, so no changes - Garrett, Marinelli, etc.
- 5 game winning streak has the Jones overvaluing our roster so we spend the offseason bragging about our roster, find a few more Nolan Carroll types in FA and think we'll fix everything in the draft.

Twisted

 

[CWR]

We are the Cowboys. Expect the worst case scenario which would be:

- We win out
- Don't make the playoffs at 10-6
- Lose a few spots in the draft order
- The 5 game winning streak at the end deludes the Jones' family into thinking this staff is perfect, so no changes - Garrett, Marinelli, etc.
- 5 game winning streak has the Jones overvaluing our roster so we spend the offseason bragging about our roster, find a few more Nolan Carroll types in FA and think we'll fix everything in the draft.

Right, except in winning out our QB perseveres and grows mightily in the process, putting to bed any questions as to whether he is a one year wonder.