Quantitatively forecasting Zeke's road to Canton

Rayman70 · Jan 25, 2019

Cowboy Brian said:
Zeke is already at 5,247 yards from scrimmage, unadjusted for his suspension.

If Zeke plays 10 full seasons at his current pace (not even accounting for the missed 6 games in season 2) - Zeke would retie with 17,489 yards from scrimmage, slotting him at #13 all time.

Accounting for Zeke's missed 6 games - grossing up his total yards from scrimmage in 2017 and adjusting for the 6 mixed games, bringing his 2017 # to 2,003. (notably, that would make his '16 season 1,994, '17 2,003, and '18 2,001 - staying in trend, and boy, look at that consistency)

His 3 year total becomes 5,998; 5,998 * 10/3 = 19,993 total yards over a ten year career. Good enough for #5 all-time, ahead of Tim Brown (who played 16 seasons), and right behind our very own Emmitt Smith (who played 14 seasons) who is at #4.

Now is where what Zeke has done these past few years becomes extremely amazing -

If Zeke played 14 seasons, the same as Emmitt, his projected career total yards from scrimmage would be 27,990, cementing his status as #1..... ahead of Jerry Rice, who would fall to #2 with 23,546 yards... it would take Zeke only 12 seasons to become the NFL's all-time leader in yards from scrimmage

you sound like Jerry Jones. ' Quantitatively?" ...That's a Jerry-ism 101.

superonyx · Jan 25, 2019

Wezsh0T said:
Zeke is taking a beating. There's no way he makes it to 14 seasons. Think Marion Barber.

Emmitt could play that long because he rarely took a square hit. It always seems like Emmitt was able to slide past people or make people take bad angles on most stops.

Zeke has the tools to adjust his style if the pounding started to become too much. His running style is a choice. He is still one of the fastest guys on the field and he has excellent vision so maybe 10th year Zeke isn’t 2nd year Zeke but he can still be effective.....although I wouldn’t blame a man if they walked away early. It’s not normal for human bodies to take a car crash level of impact over and over....
Zeke is probably the most physically put together player in the league. The dude looks like he is made to survive impacts head to toe.

conner01 · Jan 25, 2019

Way too early to be talking HOF for Zeke
4 or 5 years from now if he’s still going then we can see. The odds are against him
Lots of players have had good early careers but sustaining that for 10 years is very difficult

Cannibal_Cowboy · Jan 25, 2019

Cowboy Brian said:
Zeke is already at 5,247 yards from scrimmage, unadjusted for his suspension.

If Zeke plays 10 full seasons at his current pace (not even accounting for the missed 6 games in season 2) - Zeke would retie with 17,489 yards from scrimmage, slotting him at #13 all time.

Accounting for Zeke's missed 6 games - grossing up his total yards from scrimmage in 2017 and adjusting for the 6 mixed games, bringing his 2017 # to 2,003. (notably, that would make his '16 season 1,994, '17 2,003, and '18 2,001 - staying in trend, and boy, look at that consistency)

His 3 year total becomes 5,998; 5,998 * 10/3 = 19,993 total yards over a ten year career. Good enough for #5 all-time, ahead of Tim Brown (who played 16 seasons), and right behind our very own Emmitt Smith (who played 14 seasons) who is at #4.

Now is where what Zeke has done these past few years becomes extremely amazing -

If Zeke played 14 seasons, the same as Emmitt, his projected career total yards from scrimmage would be 27,990, cementing his status as #1..... ahead of Jerry Rice, who would fall to #2 with 23,546 yards... it would take Zeke only 12 seasons to become the NFL's all-time leader in yards from scrimmage

I think Zeke needs to focus on losing weight instead of trying to beat up DJ's at bars. He used to be able to outrun guys instead of trying to Earl Campbell them.

jsb357 · Jan 25, 2019

Cowboy Brian said:
Quantitatively forecasting Zeke's road to Canton

And like Emmit he will play his last games as an Arizona Cardinal.

Proof · Jan 25, 2019

OmerV said:
Barkley lead with 16 runs of 20 yards or more. Elliott tied with 3 others for the next highest at 11.

maybe he was leading at a time when it was mentioned. or equally likely i dont know what the hell i'm talking about.

AbeBeta · Jan 25, 2019

How on earth are you projecting the sa

Cowboy Brian said:
Zeke is already at 5,247 yards from scrimmage, unadjusted for his suspension.

If Zeke plays 10 full seasons at his current pace (not even accounting for the missed 6 games in season 2) - Zeke would retie with 17,489 yards from scrimmage, slotting him at #13 all time.

Accounting for Zeke's missed 6 games - grossing up his total yards from scrimmage in 2017 and adjusting for the 6 mixed games, bringing his 2017 # to 2,003. (notably, that would make his '16 season 1,994, '17 2,003, and '18 2,001 - staying in trend, and boy, look at that consistency)

His 3 year total becomes 5,998; 5,998 * 10/3 = 19,993 total yards over a ten year career. Good enough for #5 all-time, ahead of Tim Brown (who played 16 seasons), and right behind our very own Emmitt Smith (who played 14 seasons) who is at #4.

Now is where what Zeke has done these past few years becomes extremely amazing -

If Zeke played 14 seasons, the same as Emmitt, his projected career total yards from scrimmage would be 27,990, cementing his status as #1..... ahead of Jerry Rice, who would fall to #2 with 23,546 yards... it would take Zeke only 12 seasons to become the NFL's all-time leader in yards from scrimmage

How on earth are you projecting the same production over 10 or 14 years?

That just crazy.

Future · Jan 25, 2019

Super_Kazuya said:
Only Jim Brown and Barry Sanders were truly able to sustain peak performance over their entire careers. You never know, but to me Zeke definitely does not fit the profile of someone who would be the third.

Brown only played 9 seasons...and those seasons were only 12 and 14 games. Sanders played 10 seasons and only missed a handful of games, but his YPC went way down his final year.

Frank Gore is a pretty good comp for Zeke, in terms of longevity. In 12 straight seasons he played at least 14 games 11 times, and played 11 in the other. He didn't have the same workload as Zeke, but his ability hadn't declined much.

Super_Kazuya · Jan 25, 2019

Future said:
Brown only played 9 seasons...and those seasons were only 12 and 14 games. Sanders played 10 seasons and only missed a handful of games, but his YPC went way down his final year.

Yeah but they carried the ball like crazy. When Brown retired he was the all-time leader in carries (by a mile). Sanders was second. Maybe they could have played longer, but you certainly can’t say they “only” did anything.
Sanders YPC in his final season only looks like a huge drop because his 6.1 YPC the previous season was so absurd. There was nothing concerning at all about his final season.

blumayne38 · Jan 25, 2019

Creeper said:
10 seasons is a long time for a RB. To be honest, I am a little worried about Zeke slowing down. Not saying he is slow, but he clearly is not the same as he was in his first season with Dallas. He doesn't break off those big runs and outrun defenders anymore. Also, during the regular season he took a lot of breathers. In the Seahawks game he broke outside and ran out of bounds after about 40 yards. The old (young) Zeke would have taken that to the house. I'll cut him some slack because I think he hurt his leg mid-season and I am not sure it was really 100% the rest of the season. But I want to see him out-running defenses like he did 2 years ago.

Lol then get him a QB that can stretch the field

glimmerman · Jan 25, 2019

I am not so sure that Elliot will want to play that long. He is wanting to redo and extend his contract now.

After next year he has played 4 years and already made 24 million. His next contract will be huge. With the beating his body will take he may decide to hang it up after 7 or 8 years. Finishing up making about 60 or 70 million. Likely clearing half of that . Make yourself 30 or 40 million and retire before 30 are push it out till 30. Retire with your body intact.

JayFord · Jan 25, 2019

I feel the same way about Zeke as I felt about Marion barber......with his playstyle Zeke has maybe 5 years left in the nfl

You simply cannot be a physical running back dishing out punishment 20 times a game and last over 10 years

I know some will say but Adrian Peterson ......ap is one of the smartest runners in the league and does not dish out the punishment unless he has to...he Jukes, weaves, cuts and gets behind his blockers

Not saying Zeke doesnt do this but Zeke preferred method of dealing with defenders is to show them “I’m the second coming of earl Campbell”

mattjames2010 · Jan 25, 2019

There are RBs with 10,000+ rushing yards and a lot of receiving yards that aren't in the HOF. Some of those RBs actually, and I mean truly, carried their teams during an era where rushing actually mattered.

Zeke is going to have to do a whole lot to be in Canton. And with how fast RBs rise and fall, he'll be lucky to be in the Hall of Very Good by the time he retires.

He's already had 2 seasons of 300+ carries. This stuff starts to add up, I don't care how his injury history looks. It'll eventually get him.

Actually, that's my biggest problem with Zeke. He's not doing enough on limited carries like, say, a Barkley did.

mattjames2010 · Jan 25, 2019

superonyx said:
Zeke has the tools to adjust his style if the pounding started to become too much. His running style is a choice. He is still one of the fastest guys on the field and he has excellent vision so maybe 10th year Zeke isn’t 2nd year Zeke but he can still be effective.....although I wouldn’t blame a man if they walked away early. It’s not normal for human bodies to take a car crash level of impact over and over....
Zeke is probably the most physically put together player in the league. The dude looks like he is made to survive impacts head to toe.

He ran a 4.46 40. And there is reason to believe he slowed down the past couple years since he added weight. He might be close to 4.5 at this point, and his lack of homerun hitting tells me that is the case.

If he's one of the fastest on the field, it's due to us having slowpokes elsewhere.

nathanlt · Jan 25, 2019

Cowboy Brian said:
Zeke is already at 5,247 yards from scrimmage, unadjusted for his suspension.

If Zeke plays 10 full seasons at his current pace (not even accounting for the missed 6 games in season 2) - Zeke would retie with 17,489 yards from scrimmage, slotting him at #13 all time.

Accounting for Zeke's missed 6 games - grossing up his total yards from scrimmage in 2017 and adjusting for the 6 mixed games, bringing his 2017 # to 2,003. (notably, that would make his '16 season 1,994, '17 2,003, and '18 2,001 - staying in trend, and boy, look at that consistency)

His 3 year total becomes 5,998; 5,998 * 10/3 = 19,993 total yards over a ten year career. Good enough for #5 all-time, ahead of Tim Brown (who played 16 seasons), and right behind our very own Emmitt Smith (who played 14 seasons) who is at #4.

Now is where what Zeke has done these past few years becomes extremely amazing -

If Zeke played 14 seasons, the same as Emmitt, his projected career total yards from scrimmage would be 27,990, cementing his status as #1..... ahead of Jerry Rice, who would fall to #2 with 23,546 yards... it would take Zeke only 12 seasons to become the NFL's all-time leader in yards from scrimmage

The road to Canton is owned by the REFEREES. Better include that in your projections. Will they fix games so the Cowboys make to the SB? Not likely.

CowboyRoy · Jan 25, 2019

Cowboy Brian said:
Zeke is already at 5,247 yards from scrimmage, unadjusted for his suspension.

If Zeke plays 10 full seasons at his current pace (not even accounting for the missed 6 games in season 2) - Zeke would retie with 17,489 yards from scrimmage, slotting him at #13 all time.

Accounting for Zeke's missed 6 games - grossing up his total yards from scrimmage in 2017 and adjusting for the 6 mixed games, bringing his 2017 # to 2,003. (notably, that would make his '16 season 1,994, '17 2,003, and '18 2,001 - staying in trend, and boy, look at that consistency)

His 3 year total becomes 5,998; 5,998 * 10/3 = 19,993 total yards over a ten year career. Good enough for #5 all-time, ahead of Tim Brown (who played 16 seasons), and right behind our very own Emmitt Smith (who played 14 seasons) who is at #4.

Now is where what Zeke has done these past few years becomes extremely amazing -

If Zeke played 14 seasons, the same as Emmitt, his projected career total yards from scrimmage would be 27,990, cementing his status as #1..... ahead of Jerry Rice, who would fall to #2 with 23,546 yards... it would take Zeke only 12 seasons to become the NFL's all-time leader in yards from scrimmage

He will be lucky to have THIS kind of production for 4 more years.

5 year rookie deal, franchise, franchise, let him go. 7 years.

dfense · Jan 25, 2019

The Cowboys saw the light in what they did with Murray because of Marion Barber. They will run Zeke into the ground, maybe franchise him for a year and let him walk. He's a good durable back. But he's not an elite back.

superonyx · Jan 25, 2019

mattjames2010 said:
He ran a 4.46 40. And there is reason to believe he slowed down the past couple years since he added weight. He might be close to 4.5 at this point, and his lack of homerun hitting tells me that is the case.

If he's one of the fastest on the field, it's due to us having slowpokes elsewhere.

Maybe. But he added weight so if his goal is to change his running style he would also lose weight and bring back the speed he had when he ran the 4.4

Most of these guys are not running combine speeds once they age a couple years and add the weight needed to take on an NFL season.

Wezsh0T · Jan 25, 2019

The last 3 Cowboys RBs all lasted 7 years in the NFL. Julius Jones 7 years, Marion Barber 7 years, DeMarco Murray 7 years. All of them started their decline after about year 4 or 5 and none of them had as many carries as Zeke early on. Granted, Zeke probably has better vision than all 3 of these guys and is much more durable to date. Unless we pick up a reliable 3rd down scat back in the Sproles mold, I think Zeke plays out 1 more contract and is done around year 7 or 8 just like his 3 predecessors.

JJ - 721 attempts in first 3 years
Marion Barber - 477 attempts in first 3 years
DeMarco Murray - 542 in first 3 years
EElliott - 868 attempts in first 3 years

Chrispierce · Jan 26, 2019

I don’t know how long he’ll last being as physical as he is. I know he’s a great back,with HOF stuff who would get in with enough yardage. Let’s see,he’s #201 on the all-time rushing list right now which is pretty far back ....but the good news is he’ll be #100 with another 1,800.

Quantitatively forecasting Zeke's road to Canton

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