Do we do analytics

RodeoJake · Apr 14, 2019

Garrett uses a complex system marrying physical laws and theoretical science to arrive at his own version of chaotic mathematical equations to predict success rates and player growth.

northerncowboynation · Apr 14, 2019

Blast From The Past said:
I am curious if the Cowboys have a team that does analytics? During the Tom Landry era, we were known to be innovators. Today, maybe not so much? The Eagles do admit to being in this category. Where do we stand in this?

I'm sure all teams use analytics. I hope the analytics don't use the team ie, there is always a human element and some common sense and experience applied

gmoney112 · Apr 14, 2019

Analytics are really just comparative models using a system of inputs, they vary in degree from simple to complex models.

For what you mean, yeah we use it for draftees. Makes it easier with static data like physical attributes, production, etc. The only real difficult part is projection, but you can get a kind of baseline with historical references, and that's why we look at team captains, "RKG", etc. Because effort is hard to quantify ala expected value.

Our free agents analysis hasn't been as good. But, in that case, a reliable model and cost-benefit analysis would only be as good as objective inputs about the expectations of your team. Which, if we know this FO, is probably a hard sell. I hate the Eagles, but their FA data analysis is pretty damn good and they seem to hand out just about the right amount of money most of the time. For instance, the Malik Jackson signing was underrated. He could very well impact a meaningful, measurable statistic that correlates to winning games in passer rating differential. His expected value increases when he's sitting next to Fletcher Cox, and going into the season with a healthy secondary and their unique situation, but that's the point. His expected value is probably a good deal larger than risk-to-cap, and when the expected value of a player is bigger than their risk to your cap, it's pretty much a no brainer to sign them. Kind of off topic, but we could get better at that.

Haha. So, yeah we do. I don't think anyone really knows to what extent, but draftees are probably well analyzed for the most part.

jazzcat22 · Apr 14, 2019

CF74 said:
Garrett is a numbers guy, always talking about high percentage plays and what not....

I think his "processor" is broken. :lmao:

Roadtrip635 · Apr 14, 2019

Nightman said:
If they did they would go for a lot more 4th downs, never Punt from the Opponents <40, go for 2 more often and generally be more aggressive..... the numbers back it up

We want to be the 90s Cowboys Ground and Pound Offense in a modern world

It is like when Golden State figured out you don't Shaq anymore, just 3-4 guys that can shoot 3s..... the numbers have changed BB forever unless they eliminate the 3 - pointer

Brady has figured out that teams can't stop the 5-10 yard passing game with a pass rush..... look for the mismatch thru formations and take 12 plays to score.... it is the modern ground and pound

Those are not great examples. "Never" punt from opponents <40 doesn't take into account down/distance for the first down, kickers ability or weather conditions. The numbers that back a lot of those statistical theories are inherently flawed with the data they use to determine the findings. Since the 4th down attempts are a relatively small sample size, many use 3rd down play data and I've seen some also exclude 2nd and 4th qtr data so time wasn't a factor. Variance from team to team can be huge too, some teams convert 25% on 4th downs, some teams 90% during a season, then there's variance that a team can have from season to season. While I agree, in general, teams should go for it more often, there's a lot more factors than relying on numbers to consider.

Analytics didn't change how basketball is played, the rule changes, changed how the game is played. They changed hand checks and other things allowed on the perimeter and how players can play defense which greatly affected how bigs inside can play, kinda how the NFL changed the rules on protecting QBs and defending receivers that lead the NFL to become a pass heavy game. Teams don't "Shaq" anymore, because there aren't any bigs as dominant as that and the rule changes have neutered the effectiveness of bigs in general and increased the value of guard play.

Brady hasn't so much figured out as he's had to adapt. He doesn't have the scrambling ability or arm he used to, not that he scrambled much, but enough to extend plays for the deep ball. To keep him healthy and uninjured the team adapted to what he does well and use that experience. They use the short pass to let him use that quick release and experience to recognize defenses to get the ball out quick. They also had to adapt to the personnel they had, they didn't have that consistent deep threat, so they adapted to the players they had and have refined it since.

Analytics is still just another tool in the toolbox.

Blast From The Past · Apr 14, 2019

Roadtrip635 said:
Every team uses analytics to varying degrees, whether it's for player evaluations, team construction, play design, down/distance decisions, or other situational decisions. I think most fans misunderstand or misuse analytics, but it sounds scientific and cool.

I for one am in the category of misunderstanding. Didn't know it involved past the player evaluation stage. Glad the Cowboys are not left in the dust on this. Seems to be a very important tool for teams.

Roadtrip635 · Apr 14, 2019

gmoney112 said:
Analytics are really just comparative models using a system of inputs, they vary in degree from simple to complex models.

For what you mean, yeah we use it for draftees. Makes it easier with static data like physical attributes, production, etc. The only real difficult part is projection, but you can get a kind of baseline with historical references, and that's why we look at team captains, "RKG", etc. Because effort is hard to quantify ala expected value.

Our free agents analysis hasn't been as good. But, in that case, a reliable model and cost-benefit analysis would only be as good as objective inputs about the expectations of your team. Which, if we know this FO, is probably a hard sell. I hate the Eagles, but their FA data analysis is pretty damn good and they seem to hand out just about the right amount of money most of the time. For instance, the Malik Jackson signing was underrated. He could very well impact a meaningful, measurable statistic that correlates to winning games in passer rating differential. His expected value increases when he's sitting next to Fletcher Cox, and going into the season with a healthy secondary and their unique situation, but that's the point. His expected value is probably a good deal larger than risk-to-cap, and when the expected value of a player is bigger than their risk to your cap, it's pretty much a no brainer to sign them. Kind of off topic, but we could get better at that.

Haha. So, yeah we do. I don't think anyone really knows to what extent, but draftees are probably well analyzed for the most part.

That really isn't off topic at all, it's on point. The analytics used to compare players and find cost effective and productive players within a system is the heart of sports analytics. Trying to find the right players that fit within your system. First you need a good system, that may be debatable with Dallas.....lol. Pats do a good, not perfect, job of finding players that have skills to fit certain roles within their system and can still adapt their system against other teams. I think analytics are more beneficial in the NFL for team building than being used for on field play. Football is too much a team sport and too many variables involved once a play starts.

ondaedg · Apr 14, 2019

Blast From The Past said:
I am curious if the Cowboys have a team that does analytics? During the Tom Landry era, we were known to be innovators. Today, maybe not so much? The Eagles do admit to being in this category. Where do we stand in this?

Depends on what analytics we are talking about. Draft analytics seems like we do. Game prep analytics seems like we don't.

JayFord · Apr 14, 2019

Analytics to do what?

I’ve honestly just thought they go in and do the best they can and let the chips fall where they may

Nightman · Apr 14, 2019

Roadtrip635 said:
Those are not great examples. "Never" punt from opponents <40 doesn't take into account down/distance for the first down, kickers ability or weather conditions. The numbers that back a lot of those statistical theories are inherently flawed with the data they use to determine the findings. Since the 4th down attempts are a relatively small sample size, many use 3rd down play data and I've seen some also exclude 2nd and 4th qtr data so time wasn't a factor. Variance from team to team can be huge too, some teams convert 25% on 4th downs, some teams 90% during a season, then there's variance that a team can have from season to season. While I agree, in general, teams should go for it more often, there's a lot more factors than relying on numbers to consider.

Analytics didn't change how basketball is played, the rule changes, changed how the game is played. They changed hand checks and other things allowed on the perimeter and how players can play defense which greatly affected how bigs inside can play, kinda how the NFL changed the rules on protecting QBs and defending receivers that lead the NFL to become a pass heavy game. Teams don't "Shaq" anymore, because there aren't any bigs as dominant as that and the rule changes have neutered the effectiveness of bigs in general and increased the value of guard play.

Brady hasn't so much figured out as he's had to adapt. He doesn't have the scrambling ability or arm he used to, not that he scrambled much, but enough to extend plays for the deep ball. To keep him healthy and uninjured the team adapted to what he does well and use that experience. They use the short pass to let him use that quick release and experience to recognize defenses to get the ball out quick. They also had to adapt to the personnel they had, they didn't have that consistent deep threat, so they adapted to the players they had and have refined it since.

Analytics is still just another tool in the toolbox.

you said a lot but didn't change my mind one bit

you agreed about 4th downs
you are completely wrong about the NBA
and you agreed about Brady but you changed the reason why, not the plan or result

you could have just LIKED the post or just shuffled along or better yet come up with your own original ideas

cowboysooner · Apr 14, 2019

Nightman said:
If they did they would go for a lot more 4th downs, never Punt from the Opponents <40, go for 2 more often and generally be more aggressive..... the numbers back it up

We want to be the 90s Cowboys Ground and Pound Offense in a modern world

It is like when Golden State figured out you don't Shaq anymore, just 3-4 guys that can shoot 3s..... the numbers have changed BB forever unless they eliminate the 3 - pointer

Brady has figured out that teams can't stop the 5-10 yard passing game with a pass rush..... look for the mismatch thru formations and take 12 plays to score.... it is the modern ground and pound

This is also why coverage has displaced pressure as the most important facet of playing defense. Corners have become more valuable than defensive ends, but it is still difficult to determine who will be great at corner. It won’t surprise anyone that Quinnen Williams and Bosa become great. It is tougher to tell if Greedy Williams will end up better than Justin Layne.

Corso · Apr 14, 2019

CalPolyTechnique said:
The work we do is part analysis and therapist.

There’s a combination of a job title there that I just quite can’t put together....

Analapist? That sounds... let's not run with that.

Nightman · Apr 14, 2019

Corso said:
Analapist? That sounds... let's not run with that.

A new start

boyzjunkie · Apr 14, 2019

CalPolyTechnique said:
The work we do is part analysis and therapist.

There’s a combination of a job title there that I just quite can’t put together....

Theranalapist?

Idgit · Apr 14, 2019

gmoney112 said:
Analytics are really just comparative models using a system of inputs, they vary in degree from simple to complex models.

For what you mean, yeah we use it for draftees. Makes it easier with static data like physical attributes, production, etc. The only real difficult part is projection, but you can get a kind of baseline with historical references, and that's why we look at team captains, "RKG", etc. Because effort is hard to quantify ala expected value.

Our free agents analysis hasn't been as good. But, in that case, a reliable model and cost-benefit analysis would only be as good as objective inputs about the expectations of your team. Which, if we know this FO, is probably a hard sell. I hate the Eagles, but their FA data analysis is pretty damn good and they seem to hand out just about the right amount of money most of the time. For instance, the Malik Jackson signing was underrated. He could very well impact a meaningful, measurable statistic that correlates to winning games in passer rating differential. His expected value increases when he's sitting next to Fletcher Cox, and going into the season with a healthy secondary and their unique situation, but that's the point. His expected value is probably a good deal larger than risk-to-cap, and when the expected value of a player is bigger than their risk to your cap, it's pretty much a no brainer to sign them. Kind of off topic, but we could get better at that.

Haha. So, yeah we do. I don't think anyone really knows to what extent, but draftees are probably well analyzed for the most part.

The Eagles are just about the right amount of aggressive with their veteran moves. They make a fair number of them, and for decent players, don’t mind using FA in conjunction with their middle and low round draft picks, and they churn the team a fair amount with players who can actually earn snaps. Basically like we’re finally doing this offseason with the moves like the Cobb and Quinn moves.

Re the OP: of course we have a massive commitment to analytics. It’s a billion dollar organization that spends a fortune on finding and developing talent. These fan wet dreams that it hasn’t occurred to the team to use data to make decisions are a perfect example of the kind of thought that goes into garden-variety criticism. If something isn’t widely reported in detail, knee jerk reaction is to assume the most negative implication is actual, so that it’s just another log to throw on the imaginary bonfire.

Roadtrip635 · Apr 14, 2019

Nightman said:
you said a lot but didn't change my mind one bit

you agreed about 4th downs
you are completely wrong about the NBA
and you agreed about Brady but you changed the reason why, not the plan or result

you could have just LIKED the post or just shuffled along or better yet come up with your own original ideas

In general, teams should probably go for it more on 4th down, but that is still very dependent on the situation, distance, weather, kicker's ability, team(s) involved, how the team has played that day, etc. That's hardly agreeing with your simple "analytics say so" approach.

The NBA didn't want defensive, physical play, they wanted more scoring and wide open play so they nerfed the big man and the defense. They introduced the 3 second defense rule, eliminated illegal defense, hand checking, body checking which really hurt bigs and opened the court for the smaller guards to play. The league increased enforcement of contact or impediment on screens used to free shooters. Again analytics didn't change the game, rule changes did. Just like the NFL, football became more of a passing game because of the rule changes. It made passing easier and less physical. To think the scoring increase, passing or 3 pt shot came about because of analytics is just being ignorant of the history and reason why it happened.

I also didn't agree about Brady. He didn't change because of analytics, he changed out of necessity. First it changed to adapt to the personnel they had, they tried filling that void with guys like Ocho Cinco. Then the team adapted to keep Brady upright and playing, which meant short quick passes. None of that had anything to do with analytics, but out of need and age.

Maybe you should try some more original thought, analytics are just stats, not a magical cure-all. Analytics and stats has been around forever in some form or fashion, changes in the rules and game itself forced the change in how the games are played now.

Melonfeud · Apr 14, 2019

H

Blast From The Past said:
I am curious if the Cowboys have a team that does analytics? During the Tom Landry era, we were known to be innovators. Today, maybe not so much? The Eagles do admit to being in this category. Where do we stand in this?

Our esteemed fellow on the FORUM @T-RO would be one (,,,er,,,of several) thoughts on this subject matter,,,as he was on an ANALYTICS kick in a high,wide& handsome way a while back :thumbup:

*

,,,it's beyond a plausible fact that the compiled aggregate of collected data definitely indicates trending direction,,, er,,,thusly dictating percentage outcomes

Melonfeud · Apr 14, 2019

CF74 said:
Garrett is a numbers guy, always talking about high percentage plays and what not....

Man,,,

,,, now I'm feeling pretty stupid ( and somewhat withdrawn in an introverted kinda' way) cuz' I didn't know that about COACH GARRETT&CO.

Melonfeud · Apr 14, 2019

CalPolyTechnique said:
The work we do is part analysis and therapist.

There’s a combination of a job title there that I just quite can’t put together....

* according to recent articles of prominent newspapers of unseen circulation, there is an underground swelling influx of unlicensed ANALPIST'S in the SAN FRANSISCO A.O.

LMAO

Melonfeud · Apr 14, 2019

DakPresgoat said:
Yeah that pro bowl CB. Shouldn’t have went by his SPARQ score........

Byron Jones was a very good pick. Problem is our coaches sucked for the most part and played him at the wrong position for 3 years.

Rockin' the casbah you are with that post,Bro!

Do we do analytics

RodeoJake

Well-Known Member

northerncowboynation

Well-Known Member

gmoney112

Well-Known Member

jazzcat22

Roadtrip635

Well-Known Member

Blast From The Past

Well-Known Member

Roadtrip635

Well-Known Member

ondaedg

Well-Known Member

JayFord

Well-Known Member

Nightman

Capologist

cowboysooner

Well-Known Member

Corso

Offseason mode... sleepy time

Nightman

Capologist

boyzjunkie

Active Member

Idgit

Fattening up

Roadtrip635

Well-Known Member

Melonfeud

I Copy!,,, er,,,I guess,,,ah,,,maybe.

Melonfeud

I Copy!,,, er,,,I guess,,,ah,,,maybe.

Melonfeud

I Copy!,,, er,,,I guess,,,ah,,,maybe.

Melonfeud

I Copy!,,, er,,,I guess,,,ah,,,maybe.