1 Week Out! Great, Good and Bad picks at 24

[gimmesix]

Everyone grades players differently. The further you move back in the first round reduces your chances of ending up with a great player. There’s a reason everyone wants a higher draft position. It increases your odds.

Although I'm a fan of having more draft picks, therefore more chances of hitting on them, I think what you're saying here is important. 2009 showed us that quality over quantity is generally true in the NFL draft. The odds of successfully picking quality starters goes down the later you draft. Yes, there are always exceptions where teams get lucky (that's why there are redrafts years later that show who should have been picked), but the odds are in your favor the earlier you pick.

I still think many of our fans have the mind-set that we're going to hit on every pick although that absolutely never happens. There does come a point where the return on picking where you are may be less than the return on trading (such as the later rounds when you are throwing darts at the board), but generally there's a pretty good drop in quality just going from having the 24th pick to the 32nd. You only trade in the first if you have a number of players you believe are the same quality and you don't trade past that number.

 

[DoctorChicken]

I proved you wrong and you’re still trying?

If you would’ve researched for 10 seconds you wouldn’t have said what you said.

Just take the L.

So the Eagles weren’t a “serious franchise” when they won a Super Bowl and then immediately afterwards drafted a OL in the first round?

 

[DoctorChicken]

The last time the Eagles drafted an offensive lineman in the 1st round was 5 years ago, he’s no longer an Eagle.

The last time the 49ers drafted an offensive lineman in the 1st round was 6 years ago, and before that it had been 18 years since they last took an offensive lineman in the 1st round.

Good try though, bro.

So what you’re saying here is the 49ers drafted an OL in the first round, and then went to two Super Bowls afterwards, right?

 

[KJJ]

Although I'm a fan of having more draft picks, therefore more chances of hitting on them, I think what you're saying here is important. 2009 showed us that quality over quantity is generally true in the NFL draft. The odds of successfully picking quality starters goes down the later you draft. Yes, there are always exceptions where teams get lucky (that's why there are redrafts years later that show who should have been picked), but the odds are in your favor the earlier you pick.

I still think many of our fans have the mind-set that we're going to hit on every pick although that absolutely never happens. There does come a point where the return on picking where you are may be less than the return on trading (such as the later rounds when you are throwing darts at the board), but generally there's a pretty good drop in quality just going from having the 24th pick to the 32nd. You only trade in the first if you have a number of players you believe are the same quality and you don't trade past that number.

Having several 6th and 7th rounders aren’t going to do you much good. The chances of hitting on those picks aren’t good. To add some decent picks you have to trade down in the first and second round which reduces your chances of hitting on your top two picks. It’s really important to hit on your first two picks. We can ill afford to end up with another Mazi and Schoomaker with our first two picks.

 

[InPhiltraitor]

Well typically there are 15 to 18 first round grades. If there are 60 second round grades, then it would be in our best interest to trade back. The 24th pick will most likely be a second round grade, unless something falls in our lap.

The way some draft models are playing out, this year would be an ideal year for us to move back a few positions. The problem is, in general the perceived talent is not deep this year so finding a trade partner may be more difficult.

 

[morasp]

Would like to where some of these comments originated. If a guy has a concussion history, why was he able to start every game this past season with the exception of opting out of the bowl game? IDK. Watched him a ton, and didn’t see these issues unless he was hiding them extremely well.

Mickey mentioned it. And to be honest we as fans for the most part don't have a whole lot of visibility into the medicals and interviews the teams are putting these players through.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

So the Eagles weren’t a “serious franchise” when they won a Super Bowl and then immediately afterwards drafted a OL in the first round?

They won a Super Bowl THEN they went O-Line.

As I have said... You only go O-line when you have the important positions shored up.

You're wrong. Just own it.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

So what you’re saying here is the 49ers drafted an OL in the first round, and then went to two Super Bowls afterwards, right?

You're the worst kind of wrong.

You're the kind of wrong that just won't admit it and move on.

I got ya. I know you hate it because it's me that got ya, but I did.

You should research more before you speak up, because when you say dumb things some of us will do that 10 seconds of research you should've done to prove you wrong.

All this could've been avoided.

 

[InPhiltraitor]

Mickey mentioned it. And to be honest we as fans for the most part don't have a whole lot of visibility into the medicals and interviews the teams are putting these players through.

Agree, we don’t have critical access to really anything but I have every snap from Oregon’s 2023 season recorded and I’m having a brain cramp recalling JPJ have head trauma to cause him to miss time. Just curious as to when/where these head injuries occurred. Maybe I was concussed.

 

[DoctorChicken]

You're the worst kind of wrong.

You're the kind of wrong that just won't admit it and move on.

I got ya. I know you hate it because it's me that got ya, but I did.

You should research more before you speak up, because when you say dumb things some of us will do that 10 seconds of research you should've done to prove you wrong.

All this could've been avoided.

What exactly did I say that was wrong? Enlighten me. I am desperately awaiting your explanation.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

What exactly did I say that was wrong? Enlighten me. I am desperately awaiting your explanation.

Move on.

You're embarrassing yourself.

 

[DoctorChicken]

Move on.

You're embarrassing yourself.

I’m going to go cry myself to sleep now

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

I’m going to go cry myself to sleep now

Good.

Bye now.

 

[DoctorChicken]

Good.

Bye now.

Just know I’ll always be there for you

 

[cnuball21]

My tiers....

Put on a Cowboys cheerleader skirt and start doing backflips
Fuaga
Latham
Mims
Murphy
Fautanu

Pumped
JPJ
Newton

Makes sense, I'd like the pick
BTJ
Barton
Frazier
AD Mitchell
Morgan

I've got a bad feeling about this
Cooper
Colson
Wiggins

Smash the TV
Guyton
Kingsley
Franklin
Robinson
Brooks
Benson

lol love your headers!

I don’t know what to make of Newton man…I think like Olu he’s getting hit with draft fatigue sliding down boards. I think the only knock is he didn’t test so maybe not as athletic as Murphy but dude just lives in the backfield while being the only player opposing Os are gameplanning for.

Surprised you aren’t higher on BTJ?

 

[Chasing6]

lol love your headers!

I don’t know what to make of Newton man…I think like Olu he’s getting hit with draft fatigue sliding down boards. I think the only knock is he didn’t test so maybe not as athletic as Murphy but dude just lives in the backfield while being the only player opposing Os are gameplanning for.

Surprised you aren’t higher on BTJ?

We have a lot of holes, so taking best player available should be fairly easy.

 

[1942willys]

They won a Super Bowl THEN they went O-Line.

As I have said... You only go O-line when you have the important positions shored up.

You're wrong. Just own it.

amazing how some people think they know football and think the lines mean nothing

 

[cnuball21]

We have a lot of holes, so taking best player available should be fairly easy.

100%…my biggest fear in rounds 1-3 is a reach fest and passing top talent.

I think it’s hard to mess round 1 up due to the loaded OL class but rounds 2/3 have me nervous!

 

[Chasing6]

100%…my biggest fear in rounds 1-3 is a reach fest and passing top talent.

I think it’s hard to mess round 1 up due to the loaded OL class but rounds 2/3 have me nervous!

I would be happy with 3 picks in the trenches, but Jerry will have to get a skilled player to sell some jerseys.

 

[cnuball21]

I would be happy with 3 picks in the trenches, but Jerry will have to get a skilled player to sell some jerseys.

Just draft a bunch of studs and we’ll figure it out…

With how the good the OL class is there’s zero chance and OL player won’t be BPA in rounds 1-3. Get 1, then figure it out. I’d prefer to leave Tyler at LG but if we have to move him for the best of the team I’ll get on board if it means we got some ballers that fell.