1378 Yards, 12 TDs. as a backup player

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Zeke's cap hit won't be what it is right now. Either he will be cut or restructure.

If he restructures, that forces dead cap to later years and Dallas to keep him longer. I believe that’s the reason he didn’t restructure last year, because they don’t want to have to be stuck with him for that much longer.

if they cut him, his cap # is over 11 M$, where it’s only a few million more to keep him. And Pollard’s franchise tag will be over 10m$. I think if they want to keep both, best option is a megadeal for Pollard with really low early cap hits until Zeke is gone

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

It shouldn't even be a restructure. It should be a straight up pay cut. I believe they can just release him after the season with little impact to the cap.

They can. But i've stated before I think Zeke is a leader of this team. I think its hard for some fans to fathom but I think they consider him a leader and could see him being retained. Just a theory of mine.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

If he restructures, that forces dead cap to later years and Dallas to keep him longer. I believe that’s the reason he didn’t restructure last year, because they don’t want to have to be stuck with him for that much longer.

if they cut him, his cap # is over 11 M$, where it’s only a few million more to keep him. And Pollard’s franchise tag will be over 10m$. I think if they want to keep both, best option is a megadeal for Pollard with really low early cap hits until Zeke is gone

I see them restructuring him personally but surely couldn't see them making the tough decision and cutting him. Or maybe taking a pay cut like Demarcus Lawrence did.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I definitely think this is Zeke’s final season in Dallas. But there’s no need to get a FA RB. We can draft a young guy who serves as the short yardage back, much like Zeke’s role SHOULD have been this year. If not for the contract, I bet Zeke would have gotten 1/3 of the carries in 2022

Naw I think they play him the same honestly. This team has shown regardless of money they will play guys. There's a personal attachment to Zeke.

 

[nightrain]

The reality is, Pollard will likely get starter money. The Cowboys have a great opportunity in front if them to elevate Davis as coop back, draft a complimentary RB, take the savings from letting Zeke and Pollard go and invest it in the OL. Tyron Smith should also not be on the roster next year.

 

[CATCH17]

Pollard is a top NFL RB.

Zeke may not even be too 20. He’s just a volume guy that pads stats that way.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

I see them restructuring him personally but surely couldn't see them making the tough decision and cutting him. Or maybe taking a pay cut like Demarcus Lawrence did.

If they restructure, it drops his cap number by half, from 16.7m in 2023 to 8m$ (he has a lot of dead cap already so they can’t lower it more).

Problem with that is it moves the issue to later years, so now his cap # in 2024 is 17m$, and it’s a 14.5m$ cap hit to drop him. Kicking the can down the road works for Dak because you want Dak, with Zeke it’s the opposite; you’re gutting the cap now AND still making it hard to drop him later.

Worst part is because a lot of his cap issue now is already dead money from 2020 and 2021 restructures, there is no additional relief for trading him. You’re still only 2 years in on the extension because he made you give it with 2 years left on the rookie deal. So I believe best possible scenario is leaving his contract alone in 2023 and then cutting him post-June1 in 2024.

 

[charron]

I just don't see them keeping Pollard unless its a super friendly deal. They probably keep zeke as they aren't saving much by cutting him. But they can draft another speed guy in later rounds to go with zeke and davis. I hope they don't wait till Davis's contract is up before they see what they have in him like they did pollard. It's clear zeke can not carry the team anymore and should be replaced soon.

 

[xwalker]

Tony Pollard totaled 1007 rushing yards on 193 carries, and an additional 371 yards on 39 receptions in the 2022 season. This isn't elite level production, but it is much better production than the Cowboys received from the starting RB on the team, who rushed 231 times for 876 yards, and caught 17 passes for 92 yards. Ezekiel Elliott also scored 12 TDs, albeit many of them coming on short yardage dives into the end zone, after other players set him up.

On a per touch breakdown, here is a comparison:

Elliott - 3.9 yards per touch (968 yards / 248 touches), 4.84% TD/touch ratio (12 TDs / 248 touches)​

Pollard - 5.9 yards per touch (1378 yards / 232 touches), 5.17% TD/touch ratio (12 TD's / 232 touches)​

My suggestion for 2023 is that the Cowboys find a way to amicably part ways with Ezekiel Elliott and replace him with a free agent RB named Jamaal Williams who, although he is about 4 months older than Elliott, has a lot less wear and tear on his body - and will be much cheaper on the bottom line than Elliott. Elliott has carried or caught the ball 2186 times in his 7 year NFL career, an average of 312 touches per season. Williams, on the other hand, has carried or caught the ball only 1075 times in his 6 year career with the Packers and Lions - an average of 179 touches per season. This past season, Williams broke Barry Sanders season record for TDs for a Detroit Lion, with 17 rushing touchdowns.

On a per touch breakdown, here is how Williams 2022 season compares to Elliott and Pollard:

Williams: 4.2 yards per touch (1139 yards / 274 touches), 6.2% TD/touch ratio (17 TDs / 274 touches)​

At this stage in both their careers, Williams is about the same quality of RB as Elliott. The Cowboys have had a good combination in their running backfield with Elliott and Pollard. But Williams can replace Elliott for a much lower cost, giving the Cowboys the financial option of retaining the services of Pollard at a higher price. A 2023 backfield of Pollard and Williams can likely duplicate the production of the 2022 team, with a net lower overall cost.

It is time to thank Elliott for his contribution to the Cowboys, and move on to other options. Pollard has become one of the key contributors on this offense, along with CeeDee Lamb. Elliott is no longer the straw that stirs the Cowboys' drink. As fans, (and Cowboys management), there is no reason to bash Elliott. He's been a good RB for the team. But it is time to acknowledge the reality that he is no longer an elite RB, and no longer merits the high salary he is paid. Unless he's willing to take a drastic pay cut, the team needs to thank him, and move on. The Cowboys can save $4.8M against the salary cap in 2023 by cutting Elliott, and a total of $52.9M over the next 4 years by letting Elliott walk. That money can be used to sign some of the young defensive stars on the team. Jamaal Williams contract with the Lions was 2 years for $6M - a $3M per year average...for about the same production as Elliott.

• Highest probabilty:
  • Pollard Franchised.
  • Stephen cuts Zeke while Jeffy is on his Yacht (SJ might offer a pay cut to 4M from his schedule 10.9M salary).
  • They draft a RB relatively early.
  • If Zeke cut, then they'll sign a free agent RB to a mid-level contract.

• Note: Jamaal Williams will get a significantly bigger contract somewhere than he signed with the Lions.

• They save 10.9M on the total multi-year cap accounting by cutting Zeke.
  • That's the only number that SJ cares about.
  • The actual dead-money cap hits are irrelevant. That is money already spent.
  • They have plently of contracts they can restructure to get cap space in 2023.

 

[noshame]

Release Zeke, thanks for you service. Franchise Pollard, Davis #2.

 

[xwalker]

If they restructure, it drops his cap number by half, from 16.7m in 2023 to 8m$ (he has a lot of dead cap already so they can’t lower it more).

Problem with that is it moves the issue to later years, so now his cap # in 2024 is 17m$, and it’s a 14.5m$ cap hit to drop him. Kicking the can down the road works for Dak because you want Dak, with Zeke it’s the opposite; you’re gutting the cap now AND still making it hard to drop him later.

Worst part is because a lot of his cap issue now is already dead money from 2020 and 2021 restructures, there is no additional relief for trading him. You’re still only 2 years in on the extension because he made you give it with 2 years left on the rookie deal. So I believe best possible scenario is leaving his contract alone in 2023 and then cutting him post-June1 in 2024.

Stephen Jones only cares about the actual amount saved against the cap when making a decision about cutting a player.
- They save 10.9M on the overall multi-year cap accounting by cutting Zeke vs keeping him.
- The dead-money cap hits are irrelevant for any team that has more than enough contracts that can be restructured to gain current year cap space.

 

[xwalker]

That would be like 25m$+ at the RB position next year. Is that feasible?

Highly unlikely to happen.

They'll Franchise Pollard and either cut Zeke to he'll take a pay cut to about 4M.

The RB tag was $9.57M in 2022.

I've seen projections for 2023 as high as $12.6 million.

 

[Chuck 54]

I love Pollard, but I’d much prefer letting both he and Zeke walk. Bring in a rookie and maybe an inexpensive Vet to pair with Davis. Keep looking for a real FB. Use the savings in free agency—we need DT, WR, LB, and CB prior to the draft.

 

[Ken]

That would be like 25m$+ at the RB position next year. Is that feasible?

Maybe not when you put it that way lol

Maybe they try and trade him after franchising him? Accept less than 2 1s for him? I don't know...can't just let him walk and cant give him mega bucks, imo.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Pollard is a top NFL RB.

Zeke may not even be too 20. He’s just a volume guy that pads stats that way.

He's a good short yardage back. How in the hell is that padding his stats? If anything his stats take a hit because of the short yardage gains. Y'all say anything man I swear lol.......

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Highly unlikely to happen.

They'll Franchise Pollard and either cut Zeke to he'll take a pay cut to about 4M.

The RB tag was $9.57M in 2022.

I've seen projections for 2023 as high as $12.6 million.

Dropping his pay to 4m$ will still bring his cap hit over 11m$ due to previous dead money. So even then with a Pollard franchise tag we’re still looking at 22-24m$ between them

 

[CATCH17]

He's a good short yardage back. How in the hell is that padding his stats? If anything his stats take a hit because of the short yardage gains. Y'all say anything man I swear lol.......

Zeke has been getting good stats because of his high volume for years now.

His short yardage “gains” are just fans doing anything to validate how mediocre of a player he is at this point.

 

[Joe Realist]

Wonder where he goes in 2023

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Zeke has been getting good stats because of his high volume for years now.

His short yardage “gains” are just fans doing anything to validate how mediocre of a player he is at this point.

No that's irrelevant to the discussion. I'm not arguing if he sucks or mediocre. You said he benefits off of "high volume" but he's our goal line and short yardage back. You don't benefit off of 1 or 2 yard gains on your stats. Its just a silly thing to say and its lazy.

 

[Pass2Run]

Zeke's cap hit won't be what it is right now. Either he will be cut or restructure.

Absolutely.

He knows that, too.

But he got paid fat.