2008 RB Class update

[DFWJC]

Choice and Barber need good blocking in order to be productive. They depend on their OL and FB more than a guy like Felix does. That's what makes a back with speed who is good in open space a better fit for this team than Choice or Barber.

Compare the backs when running from passing sets (3+ WR, 1 RB, etc).
YPC w/3+ WR
Jones 5.3
Barber 3.6
Choice 3.5

YPC as single back
Jones 5.0
Barber 3.4
Choice 3.1

You have to think that the Cowboy staff has broken the numbers down like you have.
But sometimes I wonder.

It's very telling.

 

[HoosierCowboy]

it's apples and oranges--what team did they play for? how many yards when the defense was in prevent? who running behind? who running with? what about return yards?

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Felix has done reasonably well for his role and our OL. He has never been the number one go to guy so what do you expect from him?

If you want to argue we would have been better served to pick up an OL, DL or S with that pick I wouldn't argue although I'd have to go back and look at that draft with a keen eye to see who were available and were value picks near where he was drafted. Too lazy to do that but I'll leave it up to someone else if they are enterprising.

I'm content with the pick. Felix makes the defense account for him. He stretches the field and is a matchup problem for LBs and S. That's enough for me considering he's a homerun threat when he's out there.

I am not saying he hasn't done well in his role. but that's the point. he has NEVER been the go to guy. you don't spend the 25th pick of the draft on a guy that will never be the go to guy or hasn't been the go to guy. you spend a 3rd rounder or late 2nd rounder for a player that will play a role. you want to end up with starters with your first round picks. you want to hit home runs with your first round picks.

Felix is not a home run. will never be a home run. yeah he makes some long runs. but he will never put a team on his back and carry them.

that's not enough for me. we could have picked a similar player in the mid rounds.

 

[THUMPER]

I am not saying he hasn't done well in his role. but that's the point. he has NEVER been the go to guy. you don't spend the 25th pick of the draft on a guy that will never be the go to guy or hasn't been the go to guy. you spend a 3rd rounder or late 2nd rounder for a player that will play a role. you want to end up with starters with your first round picks. you want to hit home runs with your first round picks.

Felix is not a home run. will never be a home run. yeah he makes some long runs. but he will never put a team on his back and carry them.

that's not enough for me. we could have picked a similar player in the mid rounds.

I agree with you on this and it is something I have really disliked about Jerry's drafts. Your 1st round players should ALWAYS be projected starters, not role players, situational players, special teamers, projects, guys changing positions, or slated as backups. I would even extend that to mid 2nd round picks.

I know nobody knew just how good Chris Johnson was going to be but it sucks we took Felix instead of him since they were very similar players coming out. :bang2: :bang2: :bang2:

 

[DFWJC]

I agree with you on this and it is something I have really disliked about Jerry's drafts. Your 1st round players should ALWAYS be projected starters, not role players, situational players, special teamers, projects, guys changing positions, or slated as backups. I would even extend that to mid 2nd round picks.

I know nobody knew just how good Chris Johnson was going to be but it sucks we took Felix instead of him since they were very similar players coming out. :bang2: :bang2: :bang2:

I strongly agree with this.

I guess there could be an exception if you were picking late in the 1st and had a player you pegged as a top 5 or 10 player fell to you. If I couldn't get great trade value in that situation I would take that player even we we had a great starter already in that slot. (See Green Bay and the Aaron Rodgers pick for exhibit A)

As for not getting CJ. Oh well. That one still hurts but it's water under the bridge. I do think we had him rated fiarly high, but just had Felix higher. Tennessee is very grateful.
Hey, getting Rice or Charles a round later would have been just as sweet if we'd had landed a great Olineman (or other postion) in Felix' slot.

I've moved on and wish our guy the best.

 

[THUMPER]

I strongly agree with this.

I guess there could be an exception if you were picking late in the 1st and had a player you pegged as a top 5 or 10 player fell to you. If I couldn't get great trade value in that situation I would take that player even we we had a great starter already in that slot. (See Green Bay and the Aaron Rodgers pick for exhibit A)

As for not getting CJ. Oh well. That one still hurts but it's water under the bridge. I do think we had him rated fiarly high, but just had Felix higher. Tennessee is very grateful.
Hey, getting Rice or Charles a round later would have been just as sweet if we'd had landed a great Olineman (or other postion) in Felix' slot.

I've moved on and wish our guy the best.

Don't get me wrong, I really like Felix Jones and expect him to be a game changer for us if we use him right. I just don't believe any of the Cowboys' brass thought of him as a starter when they drafted him which makes taking him in the 1st round a mistake IMO.

The only rueage with Chris Johnson is that if we were going to take a guy as a change-of-pace back it should have been him. But again, no one knew how good he was going to be as a starter.

 

[AbeBeta]

How does a slow-footed bruiser like Barber end up getting more of his carries without FB support than a shifty speed guy like Felix? Barber had more than seven times as many short-yardage carries as Felix.

Sure ... but how many of those "two back sets" are representing plays where we had a TE start in the backfield then go in motion?

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Imagine how much more productive Felix would have been last year if we hadn't been determined to run him out of the same kind of sets that we used Barber in.

Percentage of runs from 2-back sets
Jones 71.9%
Barber 71.7%

Felix averaged 5.0 ypc as a single back, but only got 28.1% of his carries as a single back. Think what it would do to his ypc if he'd been more in line with the league average of 50% of his carries as a single back. Or 60%, like McCoy, Mendenhall, and Jackson all got. Felix gets 40 extra carries as a single back, and his 4.3 per carry average goes up to 4.6 or 4.7, and that's assuming he doesn't break one. And it gives you an extra WR on the field (who is probably Roy, who blocks better than Gronk anyway).

How does a slow-footed bruiser like Barber end up getting more of his carries without FB support than a shifty speed guy like Felix? Barber had more than seven times as many short-yardage carries as Felix.

Short-yardage carries
Barber 23
Jones 3

This means that, in normal down-and-distance (or non-short yardage), we were using Barber as the lone set back for 35.6% of his carries, and Felix for 28.6% of his carries. Go figure that one.

How does one explain this... How. :abuseme:

 

[AbeBeta]

How does one explain this... How. :abuseme:

it is pretty easy to explain it. Our OL sucked so we used a ton of sets that gave more protection ... my guess would be that many had one of the TEs starting as H-Back. I think the only real difference here is that when we used that set last year there was motion than in the past instead of simply putting both TEs on the OL to start

 

[speedkilz88]

Edit mistook the wrong pick in trade/ Duane Brown was the only OL available in that slot and the best pick at that spot (other than rb) looks like Kenny Phillips. Scary thing was the Cowboys were interested in WR in that second round area and reportedly liked James Hardy.


1 22 Dallas Cowboys Felix Jones RB Arkansas SEC from Cleveland
1 23 Pittsburgh Steelers Rashard Mendenhall RB Illinois Big Ten

1 24 Tennessee Titans Chris Johnson† RB East Carolina C-USA

1 25 Dallas Cowboys Mike Jenkins† CB South Florida Big East from Seattle
1 26 Houston Texans Duane Brown OT Virginia Tech ACC from Jacksonville via Baltimore
1 27 San Diego Chargers Antoine Cason CB Arizona Pac-10

1 28 Seattle Seahawks Lawrence Jackson DE USC Pac-10 from Dallas
1 29 San Francisco 49ers Kentwan Balmer DT North Carolina ACC from Indianapolis
1 30 New York Jets Dustin Keller TE Purdue Big Ten from Green Bay
1 – New England Patriots selection forfeited due to "Spygate" scandal [9]
1 31 New York Giants Kenny Phillips S Miami (FL) ACC





2 32 Miami Dolphins Phillip Merling DE Clemson ACC

2 33 St. Louis Rams Donnie Avery WR Houston C-USA

2 34 Washington Commanders Devin Thomas WR Michigan State Big Ten from Oakland via Atlanta
2 35 Kansas City Chiefs Brandon Flowers CB Virginia Tech ACC

2 36 Green Bay Packers Jordy Nelson WR Kansas State Big 12 from New York Jets
2 37 Atlanta Falcons Curtis Lofton LB Oklahoma Big 12

2 38 Seattle Seahawks John Carlson TE Notre Dame Ind. from Baltimore
2 39 San Francisco 49ers Chilo Rachal G USC Pac-10

2 40 New Orleans Saints Tracy Porter CB Indiana Big Ten

2 41 Buffalo Bills James Hardy WR Indiana Big Ten

2 42 Denver Broncos Eddie Royal WR Virginia Tech ACC

2 43 Minnesota Vikings Tyrell Johnson S Arkansas State Sun Belt from Carolina via Philadelphia
2 44 Chicago Bears Matt Forté RB Tulane University C-USA

2 45 Detroit Lions Jordon Dizon LB Colorado Big 12

2 46 Cincinnati Bengals Jerome Simpson WR Coastal Carolina Big South

2 47 Philadelphia Eagles Trevor Laws DT Notre Dame Ind. from Minnesota
2 48 Washington Commanders Fred Davis TE USC Pac-10 from Houston via Atlanta
2 49 Philadelphia Eagles DeSean Jackson† WR California Pac-10

2 50 Arizona Cardinals Calais Campbell DE Miami (FL) ACC

2 51 Washington Commanders Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma Big 12

2 52 Jacksonville Jaguars Quentin Groves DE Auburn SEC from Tampa Bay
2 53 Pittsburgh Steelers Limas Sweed WR Texas Big 12

2 54 Tennessee Titans Jason Jones DT Eastern Michigan MAC

2 55 Baltimore Ravens Ray Rice† RB Rutgers Big East from Seattle
2 56 Green Bay Packers Brian Brohm QB Louisville Big East from Cleveland
2 57 Miami Dolphins Chad Henne QB Michigan Big Ten from San Diego
2 58 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Dexter Jackson WR Appalachian State SoCon from Jacksonville
2 59 Indianapolis Colts Mike Pollak C Arizona State Pac-10

2 60 Green Bay Packers Patrick Lee CB Auburn SEC

2 61 Dallas Cowboys Martellus Bennett TE Texas A&M Big 12

 

[iceberg]

And people want to get rid of Choice.

almost everyone seems to have a player or two they want gone.

 

[28 Joker]

2008 First Round Pick RBs YPC 2009 VS 2010:

McFadden:

2009: 3.4
2010: 5.2

Stewart:

2009: 5.1
2010: 4.3

Jones:

2009: 5.9
2010: 4.3

Mendenhall:

2009: 4.6
2010: 3.9

Johnson:

2009: 5.6
2010: 4.3

Every running back from the 2008 class (first round) saw their YPC dip, except for McFadden, who had struggled big time his prior two seasons.

Of the five first round running backs, three have played in the postseason. Here are those stats.

Felix Jones:

30 rushes
217 yards
1 touchdown
7.2 YPC
73T LG

4 receptions
52 yards
13.0 YPC

Chris Johnson:

11 rushes
72 yards
1 touchdown
6.5 YPC
LG 32

1 reception
28 yards

*Johnson left his only playoff game with an injury and did not return.

Rashard Mendenhall

61 rushes
230 yards
4 touchdowns
3.8 YPC
LG 35

4 receptions
52 yards

2 fumbles and 2 fumbles lost, including a critical one in the Super Bowl.

 

[percyhoward]

Sure ... but how many of those "two back sets" are representing plays where we had a TE start in the backfield then go in motion?

Who knows? We do know that 2-back sets accounted for 248 carries, and Gronkowski had 337 offensive snaps last year. So we're talking about legitimate 2-back sets.

 

[28 Joker]

Felix Jones played in 16 games (including the playoffs) during the 2009 season. Felix had these rushing stats for the 16 games:

146 rushes
902 yards
6.17 YPC
LG 73 TD
4 touchdowns
9.12 rushes per game

With Marion Barber and his big contract appearing to be on the way out the door (cross fingers) and with the supremely talented Tyron Smith playing OT, Felix Jones should see the football consistently in the double digits for the first time during his Cowboys career; furthermore, he should see the right side (especially the right edge) of the football field reopen for business.

Twice in Jones' Cowboys career, he has received a string of double digit carries, the last 6 games of 2009 (including the two playoff games) and the last 8 games under Garrett (2010). Jones has delivered both times. Felix put up 79-475-2 (in 2009) during the last 6 games. Jones' 1250 total yards from scrimmage (in 2010) was a very good accomplishment, when you consider the overall state of the team, especially the significantly deteriorated offensive line play (especially Mark Colombo).

Marshall Faulk rushed the football 15.8 times per game during his first year with the Rams (1999). That was a Super Bowl winner. Faulk went on to average 17.4 carries per game during his first three years with the Rams.

Felix Jones averaged 14 rushes per game during his last 8 games under Garrett, including a 22 rush game against the Colts. If you need Felix to take the football 20 times in a given game, he has proven that he can certainly do it and get the tough inside yards, too.

I'm sure Felix Jones is looking forward to any competition, and he is probably ready to pounce on 14-16 rushes per game.

 

[percyhoward]

it is pretty easy to explain it. Our OL sucked so we used a ton of sets that gave more protection ... my guess would be that many had one of the TEs starting as H-Back. I think the only real difference here is that when we used that set last year there was motion than in the past instead of simply putting both TEs on the OL to start

It's highly unlikely that the kind of play you're describing was counted as a 2-back set. The QB's combined for 156 attempts from 2-back sets last year. Add that to the 248 RB carries from 2-back sets, and you get 404 plays. But since some of RB carries get counted twice (because sometimes the other back was one of the RB's, not a FB), there were probably around 385-390 total plays out of 2-back sets. Gronkowski may have been a lone set back, what, 5 times? A handful of plays at most.

Gronk had 337 snaps all year and missed two games (which, based on his average, would have put him at 385 snaps). So you throw in the plays where a 3rd TE (Chandler, or Tucker or somebody) would have taken Gronk's place as FB, and you consider the handful of goal line plays late in the season when Holland was the FB, and it comes out about right.

When you consider all the plays when there was definitely a FB in the game, even if the kind of play you're describing (Witten motioning out of the backfield) was indeed counted as a 2-back set, it means there weren't even as many as one of those plays per game. It's not like there are that many places you can line up Gronkowski. If he was in the game, he was in the backfield...with another back.

 

[percyhoward]

Your 1st round players should ALWAYS be projected starters, not role players, situational players, special teamers, projects, guys changing positions, or slated as backups.

We're talking about the principal weapon on the league's 7th-ranked offense.

Distribution of Touches and Targets
Jones 25%
Witten 14%
Barber 14%
Austin 13%
Choice 9%
Bryant 8%
Williams 7%
others 10%

Percentage of Team's Total Offense
Jones 21%
Austin 19%
Witten 17%
Bryant 10%
Williams 9%
Barber 7%
Choice 6%
others 10%

 

[THUMPER]

We're talking about the principal weapon on the league's 7th-ranked offense.

Distribution of Touches and Targets
Jones 25%
Witten 14%
Barber 14%
Austin 13%
Choice 9%
Bryant 8%
Williams 7%
others 10%

Percentage of Team's Total Offense
Jones 21%
Austin 19%
Witten 17%
Bryant 10%
Williams 9%
Barber 7%
Choice 6%
others 10%

I assume those numbers are for last season only and not since 2008. In thew previous 2 years Barber got the bulk of the touches. Last year Barber missed some games and Jones started in his place and some he started ahead of Barber so his numbers were up considerably over 2008-09.

 

[AbeBeta]

It's highly unlikely that the kind of play you're describing was counted as a 2-back set. The QB's combined for 156 attempts from 2-back sets last year. Add that to the 248 RB carries from 2-back sets, and you get 404 plays. But since some of RB carries get counted twice (because sometimes the other back was one of the RB's, not a FB), there were probably around 385-390 total plays out of 2-back sets. Gronkowski may have been a lone set back, what, 5 times? A handful of plays at most.

Gronk had 337 snaps all year and missed two games (which, based on his average, would have put him at 385 snaps). So you throw in the plays where a 3rd TE (Chandler, or Tucker or somebody) would have taken Gronk's place as FB, and you consider the handful of goal line plays late in the season when Holland was the FB, and it comes out about right.

When you consider all the plays when there was definitely a FB in the game, even if the kind of play you're describing (Witten motioning out of the backfield) was indeed counted as a 2-back set, it means there weren't even as many as one of those plays per game. It's not like there are that many places you can line up Gronkowski. If he was in the game, he was in the backfield...with another back.

First, a H-Back is going to be counted as a RB in that set b/c he lines up at the FB position. That is the same as if the FB went in motion, it just happens more. Second, you have at least 70 plays that counted as two back sets where Gronk couldn't have been in ... what is your explanation for that? How often did we run out of those sets compared to those when a true FB was in?

 

[percyhoward]

First, a H-Back is going to be counted as a RB in that set b/c he lines up at the FB position. That is the same as if the FB went in motion, it just happens more. Second, you have at least 70 plays that counted as two back sets where Gronk couldn't have been in ... what is your explanation for that? How often did we run out of those sets compared to those when a true FB was in?

I get your theory. You start by supposing that we couldn't possibly have been running Felix out of as many true 2-back sets as the numbers say (most in the NFL, among Top 30 rushers). You imagine a situation where a 1-back set might be mistaken for a 2-back set, and then you assume your supposition to be the explanation. It isn't. The fact is, yes, Felix really did run from more 2-back sets on a greater percentage of his runs than any other top 30 RB in the league.

If two players (other than the QB) are lined up in the backfield when the ball is snapped, that's a 2-back set. Doesn't matter whether you're talking about a RB and a FB, H-back, other RB, TE or even WR. When Gronk was injured and missed two games, we didn't change our offense. Scott Chandler played FB.

You ask what about the 70 plays that Gronk couldn't have been a part of. There are about 40 from the two games that he missed, then you have to consider the plays like the goal line plays late in the season when Holland played FB, and all the 2-back sets that included two RB's, or a RB and someone (anyone) besides Gronk.

I went back and looked at all of Felix's runs in the two games Gronkowski missed. If you count any play in which there were 2 players (besides the QB) in the backfield, whether one of them motioned out of the backfield prior to the snap or not, 78% of Felix's runs (18 out of 23) were from 2-back sets. If you DON'T count the plays when somebody lined up in the backfield and motioned out of it, that number goes down to 74%.

IOW, there was only one play out of the 23 that happened as you described. All the rest were true 2-back sets, as the evidence from season numbers (see post #35) suggested most of them were.

vs. Titans 10/10/2010
1st QTR
11:21 Chandler FB offset I
5:16 Witten FB offset I (motioned into backfield)
4:36 Chandler FB I
2:24 Chandler FB offset I
2nd QTR
11:12 lone set back
9:08 Chandler FB I
3rd QTR
14:53 Barber FB I
12:12 Chandler FB I
8:28 Chandler FB I
6:52 Chandler FB offset I
:13 Chandler FB offset I
4th QTR
12:34 Chandler FB I
12:01 FB Chandler I
8:20 FB I Witten (motioned out of backfield)
6:44 lone set back

vs. Jaguars 10/31/2010
1st QTR
13:45 lone set back
12:08 FB Chandler I
:02 FB offset I (Witten motioned into backfield)
2nd QTR
14:26 lone set back
12:35 FB Chandler offset I
11:52 FB I Witten (motioned into backfield)
9:38 ??? (this play was not recorded)
3rd QTR
12:05 FB I Witten

Felix's Totals in Games Gronkowski Missed
as lone set back
5 carries
from 2-back set
18 carries

That's a ton of true 2-back sets, from a couple of games in which the team's only fullback didn't even play.

 

[joseephuss]

I remember reading a few posts about how Mike Hart was going to be the best of the running backs in 2008 because he had such a big heart. He showed such fire and determination at Michigan that he was going to be good.

He has yet to impress Indy.

71 attempts
264 yards
3.7 avg
2 TDs
12 receptions
97 yards
8.1 avg
0 TDs

I guess it is sometimes true, you can't measure the size of a player's heart.